Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:12PM Monday January 25, 2021 6:37 PM EST (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:08PMMoonset 5:01AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202101252215;;468361 Fzus51 Kbuf 251441 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 941 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-252215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 941 Am Est Mon Jan 25 2021
This afternoon..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Snow. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 252318 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 618 PM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet weather is expected today along with temperatures closer to normal for this time of the year. A weakening area of low pressure moves in early Tuesday morning, bringing a chance for accumulating snow and a wintry mix through Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Tonight . High clouds are moving in from the SW and will thicken through the night. Without clear skies like the previous nights, overnight lows will be warmer than the last few days. Precipitation will be slow to move in and with forecast soundings showing dry air in the low levels, it will take some time for the atmosphere to saturate and precip reach the surface. Precipitation will be moving from S to N with the Wyoming Valley starting to see some precipitation shortly before sunrise. Evaporative cooling along with the cold air in place, the Ptypes initially starts as -SN over NE PA. As a warm front pushes N, 850 temps rise above freezing and a dry slot moves in, leading to the precip transitioning to light mixed precipitation.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night . Models and ensembles have continued to favor a further north track of the incoming system, with a band of light snow lifting north across the area north of a warm front in the morning, before stalling out close to, or just north of the NY State Thruway by early afternoon. QPF looks to be highest Tue morning in an area stretching from Cayuga County east to Madison and Oneida Counties as a 45-50 knot low level jet focuses the steepest isentropic lift in this area. A warm nose between 925-800 mb pokes into the Southern Tier in the morning but occludes by early afternoon. The surface warm front looks to shift north of the NY/PA border around this time, further focusing low level convergence over the northern part of the CWA. A dry slot aloft also works into the area south of the front, with soundings across most of NE PA and the Southern Tier saturated in a relatively shallow layer, too warm for ice crystals. The end result will be the morning's steady light snow band will transition to spotty showers of mixed precip, with freezing rain and freezing drizzle.

Snow amounts will range from 1-3 inches over most of the area, lowest in the Wyoming Valley in NE PA. Where the main band of snow sets up near and north of the Thruway, 3 to 5 inches will be most common, with an isolated 6 inch amount not out of the question. Orographic lift may boost snow totals to 2 to 4 inches in parts of the Catskills.

Ice accumulations will mainly be under 0.10 inches, but where showers develop, and in higher terrain areas, localized spots with 0.20 to 0.30 glaze will be possible. Areas along and north of the Thruway are expected to stay as all snow.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Northerly flow in the wake of Tuesday's system will keep lake effect clouds and a few snow showers around on Wednesday. A potent upper low over James Bay will swing into northern New York and New England Thursday Night, with a trailing shortwave trough extending across the area Friday morning. The coldest Arctic airmass of the season will arrive with this upper low during the day Thursday, with blustery northwest winds and lake- enhanced snow showers or squalls expected Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will bottom out on Friday in the 10s across most of the area, and some areas in northern Oneida County may stay stuck in the single digits during the day. Single digit overnight lows will be common Thursday Night and Friday night. Forecast is several degrees below NBM, with a blend of MOS and 2m temps used for the grids.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Global models are fairly consistent with a trough digging into the Great Lakes region early next week. ECMWF and GEFS ensembles are in good agreement with the development of a surface low in the eastern US but there is still a lot of spread in the location and timing of the low. With cold air in place and strong high pressure to the north, chances are Ptypes will mostly be snow.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through most of the night. Ceilings will lower late tonight with MVFR conditions expected by around 12Z at terminals south of the NY Thruway. Warm front lifting N tomorrow brings a band of snow from S to N. Precipitation may start as snow at AVP and ELM but is expected to quickly mix in some fzdz as drier air moves in aloft. The snow and freezing drizzle in the afternoon across the southern tier of NY and ne PA with be spotty and overall light. As the band of snow moves N, it will organize and strengthen before impacting SYR and RME between 17-23Z tomorrow. Winds will increase out of the southeast over central NY in the afternoon Tuesday with gusts 10 to 20 kt.

Outlook . Tuesday Night . Precipitation likely transitions back to light snow and becomes more showery overnight.

Wednesday . Possible lingering on and off restrictions in scattered snow showers and leftover cloud cover for CNY terminals.

Wednesday night through Friday . Low confidence forecast with additional chances of snow showers/associated restrictions, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Saturday . Cold with lake effect cloud cover off Lake Ontario likely impacting KRME, KSYR and KITH.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ039-040-044-048-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ038-043-047. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ017-018-044-045-057-062. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ016-025-055-056. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ015-022>024. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-036-037-046.

SYNOPSIS . AJG NEAR TERM . AJG SHORT TERM . MPH LONG TERM . AJG AVIATION . AJG/BJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi50 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 28°F 1019.6 hPa14°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi38 min E 5.1 G 6 33°F 1019.6 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi50 min 29°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G31
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G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi42 minE 410.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1020 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair30°F18°F61%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmE3E4E4E4E5E5E3E5E7E6E4E7E5NE4SE3SE6S4CalmCalmCalmE3E4
1 day agoNW18
G26
W21
G24
NW22
G29
NW18
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NW16
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NW11N14
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NW13NW10
G17
NW6N6NW9NW9N7NW7NW9NW9NW11NW12NW10NW7NW6NW3N4
2 days agoW9W13W11W10W12W17
G22
W18
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W15
G20
W13W14W11
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W14NW14NW20
G23
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G25
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NW16NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.