Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:34PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 2:44 AM EDT (06:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:46AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202005270315;;796919 Fzus51 Kbuf 262039 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 439 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-270315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 439 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Due to some upwelling...the water temperature off rochester is 43 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 270557 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 157 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Warm and dry conditions are anticipated today, as high pressure dominates our weather, though an isolated thunderstorm could occur this afternoon in vicinity of the Mohawk Valley. A frontal system will bring a more organized areawide chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and especially Friday. Behind the system, dry and cooler weather will return this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 930 pm update . Almost the entire region is under mostly clear skies as of 930 pm, so have decreased cloud cover in the forecast through the overnight hours with ridging settled overhead. Models are still wanting to bring in some low stratus into NE PA early Wednesday morning, similar to what they had yesterday, but it never got there, so confidence is decreasing that this will be the case. Also, confidence is a bit lower that fog will be as widespread as currently forecast, so may need to pull it out in a later update.

730 pm update . Temperatures are running a little warmer than forecast, so adjusted them upward over the next few hours to align with current obs and trends.

230 pm update . Air mass thunderstorms appear to be firing off terrain features over the far northern and southern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. With weak wind flow aloft, these storms will move very slowly and aren't likely to become organized. We'll keep an eye on precipitation amounts if storms become stuck over a certain area.

Patchy valley fog will form overnight as temperatures dip into the 60s.

Expect partly sunny skies and temperatures in the middle 80s along the Twin Tiers on Wednesday.

A warm front will bring showers to the southern portion of the forecast area late Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Period features a slowly departing ridge and a equally slowly approaching cold front. Wednesday night into Thursday will show increasing moisture but remain relative stable as the mid level ridging remains in place. Expect mainly just light showers with perhaps enough instability for isolated thunder, especially over the central and western zones. By Friday, deeper instability arrives ahead of the front allowing for more widespread convection.

Threat for severe weather is minimal at this distance as the wind field is not impressive limiting the shear, and the overall instability is moderate. Higher threat may be from heavy rain as the pwats are better than a inch and a half mbE vectors suggest back building cells.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Little change in the long term. Models continue to be consistent with much cooler air moving in for the weekend and after some leftover showers Saturday the long term looks dry and unseasonably cool.

Previous discussion continues below.

Warm and humid conditions continue for Friday, with highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A cold front will be approaching the area from the west throughout the day, setting the stage for an increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially by the afternoon. As previous shifts have noted, there is some signal there for strong to severe storms Friday given the favorable large-scale dynamics and strengthening wind field in the mid levels. As usual, the extent of the severe thunderstorm risk will dependent on if there will be some breaks in the morning clouds, therefore enhancing instability for the afternoon. The extend of any morning clearing remains uncertain.

Given the strong downstream blocking off the eastern seaboard, the cold front will be slow to progress southeastward through the forecast area Friday night and could conceivably get hung up in our far southeastern zones (Poconos-Catskills) for at least the first half of Saturday. Therefore, we continue to have low-end chance PoPs for these areas Saturday morning. Otherwise, northwest flow behind the front will advect much cooler and drier air into the region this weekend into the beginning of next week.

After near-normal temperatures on Saturday (upper 60s to upper 70s), highs will likely be below normal for Sunday and Monday, mainly in the lower to upper 60s. Lows will also become quite chilly for this time of the year with widespread 40s and even some upper 30s possible Sunday and Monday nights.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Fairly quiet conditions expected this TAF period, with high pressure dominating. However, marine moisture presses towards KAVP this morning, with a few hours of MVFR ceiling. Also, patchy valley fog around KELM will pose a threat for visibility restrictions/perhaps a brief low ceiling near dawn. VFR conditions are otherwise anticipated for all terminals, with MVFR ceiling sneaking back in for KAVP this evening. There is a very small chance for an isolated thunderstorm near KRME around mid afternoon as a very weak disturbance passes aloft; confidence is much too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will generally be light southeast to south 4-8 knots; though near calm KAVP-KELM early this morning.

Outlook .

Late Wednesday night through Thursday morning . Development of ceiling restrictions, especially KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP, as moisture moves in from the south with chances for showers.

Thursday afternoon through Friday night . Occasional showers and associated restrictions expected; thunder also possible especially with front passing through on Friday.

Saturday through Sunday . Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . DJP/MPK SHORT TERM . DGM LONG TERM . BJG/DGM AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi56 min SSE 8.9 G 11 75°F 1018.4 hPa65°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi44 min SSE 1 G 1.9 65°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi62 min 63°F 1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi48 minESE 410.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1020.3 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi51 minN 010.00 miFair65°F63°F93%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SE4SE4E3SE4S5SE534S4W54S76S5SE8SE4SE3E4CalmE5SE4SE4SE4
1 day agoSE11SE12SE9
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SE10SE8S7S6S7S3SE4SE3SE6SE6SE4
2 days agoS9SE8
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S12SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.