Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 29, 2021 12:00 PM EDT (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:42PMMoonset 10:47AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202107291500;;641668 Fzus51 Kbuf 291231 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 831 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-291500- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 831 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 68 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 291052 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 652 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A frontal system will move through the region with some showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a high pressure system building into the region Friday and Saturday. By Sunday another cold frontal boundary will push through the region with our next round of showers. High pressure then tries to build back into the region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Only minor changes with the sunrise update but did add some additional wording to the forecast where confidence is highest for thunderstorms later today.

As of 7 am 7/29 an MCS is across WI, MI/IL/IN/OH and will continue moving southeast into the remainder of the Great Lakes region. This is in association with a frontal system which has lift and moisture to produce this activity. This MCS should weaken through the overnight into the morning hours.

Current thinking is some showers from the MCS will start to move into the Finger Lakes and western portions of the area by mid to late morning before moving southeast during the afternoon and evening. The axis of greatest instability continues to nudge slightly further south to limit the highest potential of overlapping shear and instability to the Poconos and western Catskills. Lighter showers are expected further northwest. Somewhat fast storm motions coupled with a modest LLJ will promote the potential for some gusty winds to possibly damaging in a few spots as the MCS cycles stronger in the afternoon into the evening hours. A storm or two may end up rotating in NE PA for a time given modeled helicity values in the lowest 1 KM of 100-200 M/S-1 and low LCL's.

PW values once again get over 1.5 inches leading to heavier rainfall. Storm motions as mentioned are expected to be quicker which helps in terms of the rainfall. However, some areas still have rather low FFG and a few training and/or repeating storms may cause small stream and urban flooding. Uncertainty is present with the amount of rainfall as the mean HREF QPF is only around half an inch for most of us although some ensemble members do have maximum localized strips of 2-3 inches of rain.

Temperatures will be kept in check today due to clouds and showers only getting into the 70's for most locations. Northwest flow tonight keeps clouds around tonight and through most of Friday. Continued to linger clouds along longer than model guidance given the pattern on Friday. Temperatures should only fall a bit to around 60 Friday night and struggle to reach 70 for many spots thanks to the clouds. Modeled momentum transfer suggests the potential for some 20 mph gusts Friday afternoon too.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. 415 AM Update . What a chilly way to end July and begin August.

Anomalously cool air will continue to advect into the region ahead of Canadian high pressure Friday evening. A mostly clear sky and very dry air mass will promote radiational cooling as well, especially in sheltered valleys where winds will decouple. This will start the weekend off with near record daily lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s by dawn. Despite a good amount of sun Saturday, the cool air mass will only warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs. Clouds will start to increase in the afternoon, especially in Central New York; associated with warm air advection aloft.

Flow will temporarily flatten Saturday night, with thickening clouds from approaching low pressure. Then early on Sunday, a new trough will dig into the upper Great Lakes, pivoting through our region late Sunday into Sunday night. First the warm front of the low pressure system will lift into our area late Saturday night-early Sunday, with showers and perhaps a little bit of embedded thunder from instability aloft. Later on Sunday, the actual low and occluding cold front will sweep through with a higher likelihood of showers and some thunderstorms. Showers then diminish overnight. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night will be mainly 50s; highs Sunday in upper 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 415 AM Update . Next week the models disagree on which feature will be the more dominant of our weather; new troughing in the western Great Lakes-Ohio Valley, or a strengthening Bermuda high. Regardless for us, shower chances at least early in the week look meager with the amount of dry air in the low levels. Eventually, slightly more moisture creeps in and temperatures edge up close to average. The trough to our west gradually noses its way in as well. So by midweek, scattered showers and afternoon thunder will be somewhat more probable. High impact weather is not foreseen at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

KELM . Fog finally burning off around 12z still some variabilitywith restrictions till the fog burns off.

Ceilings are trending slower moving into the region with lowering conditions not till this afternoon and evening. A mid to high level ceiling moves into the region which lowers throughout the day due to showers. Coverage of thunder is currently too low for TAF inclusion. The one exception may be KAVP where conditions look a bit more favorable for thunder in the roughly 18-22Z timeframe. The 12Z TAFS attempt to time the heaviest showers/thunder with MVFR restrictions but some uncertainty still remains with the exact timing. Winds under 10 knots outside of any thunderstorms.

Higher confidence is present though for ceilings lowering to IFR tonight with northwest flow and a few lingering showers. Ceilings slowly lift Friday morning.

Outlook .

Friday afternoon . Clouds and spotty showers with northwest flow. Ceilings improve to VFR by sunset.

Friday Night through Saturday . Mainly VFR.

Saturday Night through Monday . Mainly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms with some restrictions. Morning fog possible at ELM Sat night and Sun night.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MWG NEAR TERM . MWG SHORT TERM . MDP LONG TERM . MDP AVIATION . MWG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi43 min S 8 G 9.9 65°F 1011.6 hPa60°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi61 min S 9.9 G 14 67°F 1011.2 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi43 min 67°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi65 minSSE 1110.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1012.5 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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