Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:35PM Sunday December 15, 2019 1:48 PM EST (18:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:15PMMoonset 10:30AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1229 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Overnight..West gales to 35 knots. Rain and snow showers after midnight, then a chance of rain and snow showers late. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots overnight. A chance of snow showers. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201912151015;;805649 FZUS51 KBUF 150529 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1229 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-151015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 151749 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1249 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow showers will continue this afternoon and tonight with light accumulations. Another winter storm will bring a wintry mix to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday as it moves through the Mid- Atlantic region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. 12 pm update . Keep the snow showers going across the twin tiers this afternoon. No signs of quitting yet. connection to Lake Huron continues. That should all change toward sunset with low level lift waning due to the short wave passing now and diurnal heating.

930 am update . Light lake effect snow continues this morning across most of the area with cloudy skies. Accumulations are light to almost nothing in the valleys with temperatures mostly in the mid 30s. Winter weather advisory runs until 1 PM for northern Oneida. This looks fine and will let it finish. Radar returns close to 30 dbz so maybe another inch or two on the Tug. Upped pops, temps, and clouds.

240 AM update . Lake effect snow showers will continue to skirt Northern Oneida County, where a winter weather advisory remains in effect. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected in the advisory area north of a Camden to Remsen line.

Elsewhere, a mainly quiet day is forecast for Sunday. Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will reach the middle 30s under cloudy skies.

A thin band of lake effect snow will form in northwest flow Sunday night and affect Onondaga County. Light snow amounts are forecast.

A winter storm sliding out of the Mid-Atlantic will spread snow and mixed precipitation into our forecast area Monday afternoon. The snow will reach our PA counties initially and spread northward after dark. A light coating of freezing rain is anticipated over portions of NEPA Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Weak wave of low pressure associated with a positively tilted upper level trough moves up the Tennessee Valley, to near DC and then off the NJ coast Monday night into Tuesday. Latest model guidance continues to trend colder, and further south with this winter system as a strong surface high remains anchored over New England Monday evening. Light snow, possibly mixed with sleet and pockets of freezing rain will be ongoing across much of NE PA Monday evening. Still expect precipitation (snow or wintry mix) to overspread the area from south to north later Monday evening and Monday night. Again, latest guidance has really slowed down the progression northward . so now the best estimates are for snow to reach the NY/PA border region late evening or around midnight . then the US-20 corridor during the predawn hours Tuesday. Finally reaching the NY Thruway corridor and points north around daybreak Tuesday. Periods of snow or wintry mix continue areawide Tuesday morning, before tapering off to showers in the afternoon. See below for more details on precipitation types and forecast amounts.

With the colder trends (both aloft and at the surfaces) it now looks like some sleet and pockets of freezing rain could mix in at times as far north as the Rte-17/I-86 corridor, then south of I-88 in the Catskills. North of this line, the event will likely be all snow and no mix. Best chance for freezing rain will be across NE PA; especially the higher elevations, where up to two-tenths of an inch of ice is looking possible. Surface temperatures look to hold steady Monday night into Tuesday morning between about 25-32 degrees areawide . the Wyoming Valley, and upper Susquehanna Valley locations in NE PA could reach the mid-30s Tuesday; changing the precip over to a mix of rain, sleet and wet snow . it could even go to all rain for a time south of Pittston in Luzerne county. Current forecasts are for 1-3 inches of snow and sleet with coatings of ice across NE PA. Then, 2-4 inches of snow (and sleet across Southern Tier) with localized amounts up to 5 inches for Central NY. These precip types and amounts could certainly change depending on the future model trends. Considering the uncertainty, and that this is mostly a 4/5th period event, will hold off on any winter headlines at this time, and try to better pin down the details in subsequent forecast updates. Will continue to mention this potential for winter weather in the HWO; as it could impact travel areawide.

Tuesday night: The previous system exits quickly eastward, with a weak surface ridge nudging into the region. There could still be some scattered snow showers or flurries north from lake effect, as cold air advection takes hold and 850mb temps fall to around -10C. Late at night a large, very cold upper level low begins to approach from the Great Lakes region . this should turn the low level winds more southwesterly, shifting the lake effect snow showers further north . but shower off of Lake Erie could spread into Steuben county, and even into the rest of central NY as the fetch and wind speeds increase.

Wednesday: Model guidance has come in rather good agreement that a strong, arctic frontal boundary will cross the region during the day. Southwest winds early in the day shift west-northwest behind the front. Snow showers and possible squalls are expected along and behind the front. This looks to be a high PoP, low QPF/snow amount scenario. However, as temperatures fall into the teens and low 20s late in the day winds will also increase between 15-25 mph, with higher gusts. This will mean that there could be blow snow, and significantly reduced visibility in the snow showers and squalls. We will continue to closely monitor this potential . generally snow amounts should be a coating to 2 inches across Central NY, with less than 1 inch in NE PA before sunset. High temperatures will be lucky to reach 25-30 out ahead of the front . 850mb temperatures fall to around -20C by sunset with 1000-500mb thicknesses falling below 504dm.

Wednesday night: The coldest air mass thus far of the winter season will be over the area. Guidance is in good agreement for 850mb temperatures between -20 to -25C and thicknesses bottoming out around 500dm. A blustery, frigid northwest flow will continue to spray lake effect snow showers and flurries across the region. Northwest winds remain between 10-20mph, creating areas of blowing snow and wind chills between 0 and 15 below. Actual air temperatures should fall into the single digits for most areas . except lower teens in the Wyoming Valley of NE PA . and 0 to 5 below across northern Oneida county.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. No major changes to the extended; still looking cold with snow showers to start . then drying out and slowly moderating some by next weekend.

Thursday: A piece of arctic air remains over the region as an upper level low swings across the region. Very cold air mass and unsettled conditions are expected with scattered snow showers for our lake snow effect areas and flurries or a few snow showers further south. Highs will struggle to get into the mid teens to lower 20s with overnight lows in the single digits north and teens for NE PA. If the operational GFS and ECMWF are to be believed temperatures will still have to be adjusted even further downward given the modeled boundary layer temperatures.

Friday and Saturday: The cold upper level low slowly moves east, with ridging, both aloft and at the surface trying to move in from the west. However, there are now model differences with the GFS stalling the cold upper level low nearby much longer than the ECMWF due to downstream blocking. For now, went close to the NBM guidance for temperatures this period . which is trending colder. The lake effect snow showers should end either way as a strong and dry surface high builds over the region. Latest forecast now has high in the mid 20s to low 30s Friday, reaching the low to mid-30s on Saturday. Still cold under light winds Friday night . lows in the teens.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 1230 pm update .

lake effect snow showers will continue across all the sites this afternoon. In general VFR conditions in flurries and light snow showers. Restrictions are likely at RME/SYR/BGM/ITH as bands of heavier snow move through. For this have a tempo for MVFR. vsbys could drop to IFR briefly too. This evening the snow showers will only be at SYR/RME. SYR could have MVFR cigs for most of the night due to a weak band of lake effect snow.

Monday VFR but still broken to cloudy. AVP may fall to MVFR around 18z ahead of the next system.

West to northwest winds at 10 to 20 kts will gust at 20 to 30 knots this afternoon then drop to 5 to 10 kts this evening. Late tonight light and variable winds become south to southwest at 5 kts Monday morning.

Outlook . Monday . VFR in CNY and MVFR at AVP.

Monday night and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . MVFR/IFR restrictions in CNY. MVFR AVP.

Thursday . VFR. Possible restrictions in CNY due to dying lake effect snow showers.

Thursday night and Friday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009.

SYNOPSIS . DJP/TAC NEAR TERM . DJP/TAC SHORT TERM . MJM LONG TERM . MJM AVIATION . TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi54 min W 32 G 46 1010.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi48 min WNW 27 G 34 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi54 min 35°F 1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi52 minWNW 15 G 289.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1011.2 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi55 minW 14 G 219.00 miSnow37°F27°F67%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE8SE8SE11SE10S11S12SE9SE10SE4SE6E5CalmE7CalmCalmNW3NW4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoSE9S9S10SE7SE11SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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