Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KCLE 150750 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A surface trough will linger across the area today as a low moves east from the Ohio valley. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move east across the area on Sunday. Two troughs will move southeast across the area late Monday and again midweek, with high pressure building across the area in between the troughs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. An inverted low level trough will slowly swing westward across the area today, rotating around a surface low centered just south of the Ohio River. An upper shortwave will be over the region this morning slowly drifting east through tonight and forcing the surface low to the east coast. Hi-res guidance continues to show a signal for convective development across the western half of the area this afternoon with the surface trough, although run to run and inter-model variability lends to a lower confidence forecast with respect to precip placement. The HRRR/RAP and ARW/NMM runs have trended towards the north central OH region for the focus of development early this afternoon, with the precip shifting into northwest OH by this evening. The NAM remains farther west with the initial development, which seems to be an outlier at this point. Went with mid range chance pops increasing early this afternoon, with a more broadbrushed approach at this time. Thunder potential will generally be confined to areas west of the I-71 corridor, with a MLCAPE gradient increasing westward to the I-75 corridor. Highs today will range from the upper 80s across northwest OH, to the low 80s from the Mid Ohio region northeast to northwest PA, where extensive cloud cover should limit insolation.

Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with the surface trough shifting west of the area just ahead of an advancing cold front and attendant upper trough. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Attention turns to the aforementioned cold front/upper trough that will move east across the area on Sunday. Have pops increasing again to the mid/upper chance range Sunday afternoon, keeping likely pops out for now given marginal instability and more scattered precip coverage signals from guidance. SPC does highlight the area for a marginal risk of severe weather Sunday. Although a modest low level theta e ridge should exist ahead of the front with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 j/kg, mid level lapse rates look poor and may inhibit more robust deep moist convection. 700-500mb flow does increase late in the day which could help to organize any stronger storms, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Highs will be a bit cooler Sunday with upper 70s/low 80s expected across most of the area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. An amplified weather pattern will setup in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere for early next week. A large upper level ridge will be well established across the Four Corners region of the CONUS and large upper level trough will be centered from the Hudson Bay down to the Great Lakes region. A cold front will be moving through and exiting the area by Sunday evening with a few showers possible. West to northwest winds will follow the passage of the front while a northwest flow continues in the upper levels over the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. An weak shortwave will round the base of the upper level trough on Monday with added cumulus cloud development and spotty showers possible Monday afternoon. These scattered instability showers will quickly go away by sunset Monday evening. A light northerly surface flow will continue Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will be slightly below average for early next week with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s away from the lakeshore. Closer to the warm waters of the lake, temperatures will be in the 60s at night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A broad upper level trough will still be influencing the weather pattern over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday but the overall pattern flattens by the end of next week with a zonal flow. Temperatures will slowly return to seasonable to slightly above average by the end of next week. At this time, it appears the weather pattern will be generally dry with no significant chances for rainfall through the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period as low pressure moves northeast through the Ohio valley. Some MVFR BR cannot be ruled out at KTOL/KFDY near daybreak. The potential for SHRA/TSRA increases this afternoon, mainly from KMFD west, but confidence in coverage too low for more than a PROB30 mention. A few SHRA may sneak into KCAK as well with the low moving just southeast of the area. Light winds through early morning will increase out of the southeast during the day.

Outlook . Non-VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

MARINE. A weak surface low pressure system will be moving eastward across the upper Ohio Valley today staying south of the lake. Surface winds on the lake will be variable on the western end and a light easterly flow on the central portion of the lake around 5 to 10 knots. A slightly better organized low pressure system will move across the upper Great Lakes tonight with southerly wind increasing over the lake tonight. South winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots over the open water tonight. A weak cold front will move across the lake late on Sunday with a wind shift to the northwest 5 to 10 knots. Generally winds for Sunday night through Tuesday night are expected to be 5 to 15 knots from the northwest or north with waves 1 to 3 feet. There may be some potential early next week for isolated waterspouts with instability showers which may form over the lake due to warm water temperatures and colder air aloft.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Griffin

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45132 - Port Stanley	38 mi	76 min	E 16 G 19	74°F	76°F	3 ft	1013.8 hPa (-1.4)
45164	40 mi	76 min			76°F	4 ft
AGCM4	40 mi	46 min		68°F	74°F		1015 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair	42 mi	76 min	E 12 G 16		75°F	2 ft	1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	49 mi	46 min	E 8.9 G 11	71°F	78°F		1012.8 hPa	62°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	53 mi	16 min	NE 8 G 9.9	73°F			1015.2 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Fairport, OH

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

Last 24hr

E7

NE7

E7

SE5

SE9

SE4

E7

E9

NE15

NE22

NE21

NE19

NE23

NE23

NE23

NE23

E18

E18

E17 G22

E12

E12

E12

E10

E10

1 day ago

E5

E6

E8

E8

E11

E9

E14

E11

NE15

NE17

NE20

E17

E19

E11 G14

E11

E7 G11

2 days ago

SE4 G7

SE4

E5

E5

E4

E7

NE8

NE11

NE11

NE12

NE12

NE12

NE12

NE10

NE9

NE11

NE12

E7

SE6

SE5

E4

E4

E4

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH	54 mi	23 min	SE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	77°F	57°F	52%	1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

Last 24hr

Calm

NE5

N3

E6

SE6

SE6

SE5

SE6

E9

NE10 G18

NE15 G19

NE17 G24

NE17 G23

NE13 G22

NE11

NE10

NE8

NE11

NE7

NE6

NE6

NE4

E4

SE4

1 day ago

E4

E5

E5

NE3

Calm

NE6

NE7

NE8

NE9

NE10

NE11

NE17 G21

NE16 G23

NE15 G22

NE13

NE10

NE8

NE9

NE5

NE6

E5

Calm

N4

E3

2 days ago

E3

Calm

Calm

Calm

NE3

NE5

N10

N11

N12

N11

N12

N12

N12

NE9

NE10

NE7

NE10

E8

E6

E4

E6

Calm

NE3

Calm

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.