Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231137 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 637 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast will drift east today. Tonight, low pressure will strengthen in the Central Plains. The low will move east and reach the Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon. The low will drift slowly northeast eventually reaching New England by Sunday as high pressure fills the Tennessee Valley.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Update . Minor changes made to hourly temps and clouds.

Original . High pressure was along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast early today with a dry stable airmass extending west across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. Expecting a dry day today however moisture will be increasing through the day with clouds thickening and lowering during the afternoon into evening. Meanwhile low pressure will be strengthening in the Central Plains. The low will drift east and eventually into the area late Friday. Rain will move into the area from the west late this evening overspreading the area overnight into Friday. Will have low chance pops far west late this evening raising to likely by morning with chance pops reaching KCLE and KCAK. Expect categorical pops most places Friday. Big question is with ptype. Main concern is the freezing rain potential for tonight. Models definitely bring warm air aloft into the area through the overnight. At this time, although close, have sided with the majority of precip remaining rain based on model forecast soundings and three hourly guidance temps through the overnight remaining in the mid 30s at FDY and MFD. Best chance for freezing rain would likely be Lucas county so will have a mention there as temps drop into the lower 30s. Expect just rain for Friday. Highs today mostly lower 40s. Highs Friday about the same although upper 30s nwrn OH.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Deep upper level low pressure system will be vertically stacked with the surface low over the lower Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature across the forecast area during this forecast period. Yesterday, the GFS was hinting at a low developing off the coast of New Jersey while the lower Great Lakes low lifted slowly north. The European model was consistent with a single low in the Great Lakes region. Both models today are suggesting a split low scenario and suggests the precipitation that moves into the local area eventually shifts to the coast by Saturday night. Some residual wrap around moisture will take place resulting in precipitation threat Saturday night into Sunday night and then transition to lake effect. Upper level temperature profiles suggest at this time that we should see mostly rain initially and then become mixed with snow and even all snow in the east by the end of the period. Surface temperatures are not expected to be remarkably cold across the area during the period as there is no strong push of cold arctic air into the region considering deep upper level low. Some dynamic cooling may take place under the low and may cause rain to change over to snow faster than expected Friday night into Saturday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper level low pressure system will move east of the area Monday allowing troughiness to linger back southwest toward the area. Eventually, upper level ridge will move east across the area and flatten with time as another ridge tries to build east. A potent little shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity maximum will move east across the central Great Lakes Tuesday evening followed by the ridge Wednesday. Weak surface high pressure and dry air mass will dominate the area Monday and Tuesday followed by low pressure that will move northeast toward the area Wednesday from the Oklahoma Panhandle region. A warm front will lift north across the area Wednesday afternoon and become nearly stationary while the low tracks along the front. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to stream north toward the region ahead of the low pressure system. Eventually, another round of rain/snow will arrive late Wednesday into Wednesday night with the low pressure system. A slow warming trend will take place in advance of the low pressure system as warm air advection tries to head northeast into the region.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. High pressure was centered over the New England coast with dry stable air over Ohio. VFR conditions will persist though the evening and into the overnight. This afternoon however, moisture will begin to increase from the west as the high moves east and low pressure moves into the Central Plains. Between 00Z and 06Z Friday, light rain will be possible west possibly taking conditions to MVFR at FDY TOL AND MFD towards the end of the period. Also freezing rain will be possible but the best chance would be at KTOL. Rain with IFR conditions will overspread the area Friday.

OUTLOOK. Non VFR likely on Friday. Non VFR possible Friday night through Sunday in rain and snow. Non VFR possible in light lake effect snow Sunday night into Monday across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

MARINE. For the most part, the lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Friday morning. Low pressure will move east across the lake over the weekend and bring a brief period of slightly increasing winds until Sunday. Winds will increase a bit causing an increase in waves by Friday night. Not expecting any small craft advisories during that period. The next chance for small craft advisory conditions appears to be Sunday and Sunday night mainly east half of the lake. Winds diminish for Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . TK NEAR TERM . TK SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . TK MARINE . Lombardy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
AGCM4	40 mi	55 min		29°F	33°F		1022.9 hPa
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	49 mi	55 min		33°F	33°F		1023.7 hPa	16°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	53 mi	43 min	S 1.9 G 5.1	29°F			1023.4 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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NW6 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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