Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:30PM Saturday August 15, 2020 4:16 AM EDT (08:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:33AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:202008151415;;477363 Fzus61 Kcle 150731 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 331 Am Edt Sat Aug 15 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. High pressure 30.10 inches lingers over lake erie through Saturday night and will gradually exit to the east. On Sunday, a cold front sweeps east across lake erie, and a second cold front should sweep southeast across the lake on Monday. Behind the front, a ridge averaging 30.10 inches builds from the upper midwest by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lez164>167-151415- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- 331 am edt Sat aug 15 2020
Today..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers early. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 150750 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 350 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A surface trough will linger across the area today as a low moves east from the Ohio valley. An upper trough and associated surface cold front will move east across the area on Sunday. Two troughs will move southeast across the area late Monday and again midweek, with high pressure building across the area in between the troughs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. An inverted low level trough will slowly swing westward across the area today, rotating around a surface low centered just south of the Ohio River. An upper shortwave will be over the region this morning slowly drifting east through tonight and forcing the surface low to the east coast. Hi-res guidance continues to show a signal for convective development across the western half of the area this afternoon with the surface trough, although run to run and inter-model variability lends to a lower confidence forecast with respect to precip placement. The HRRR/RAP and ARW/NMM runs have trended towards the north central OH region for the focus of development early this afternoon, with the precip shifting into northwest OH by this evening. The NAM remains farther west with the initial development, which seems to be an outlier at this point. Went with mid range chance pops increasing early this afternoon, with a more broadbrushed approach at this time. Thunder potential will generally be confined to areas west of the I-71 corridor, with a MLCAPE gradient increasing westward to the I-75 corridor. Highs today will range from the upper 80s across northwest OH, to the low 80s from the Mid Ohio region northeast to northwest PA, where extensive cloud cover should limit insolation.

Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with the surface trough shifting west of the area just ahead of an advancing cold front and attendant upper trough. Lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Attention turns to the aforementioned cold front/upper trough that will move east across the area on Sunday. Have pops increasing again to the mid/upper chance range Sunday afternoon, keeping likely pops out for now given marginal instability and more scattered precip coverage signals from guidance. SPC does highlight the area for a marginal risk of severe weather Sunday. Although a modest low level theta e ridge should exist ahead of the front with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 j/kg, mid level lapse rates look poor and may inhibit more robust deep moist convection. 700-500mb flow does increase late in the day which could help to organize any stronger storms, with damaging winds being the primary threat. Highs will be a bit cooler Sunday with upper 70s/low 80s expected across most of the area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. An amplified weather pattern will setup in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere for early next week. A large upper level ridge will be well established across the Four Corners region of the CONUS and large upper level trough will be centered from the Hudson Bay down to the Great Lakes region. A cold front will be moving through and exiting the area by Sunday evening with a few showers possible. West to northwest winds will follow the passage of the front while a northwest flow continues in the upper levels over the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. An weak shortwave will round the base of the upper level trough on Monday with added cumulus cloud development and spotty showers possible Monday afternoon. These scattered instability showers will quickly go away by sunset Monday evening. A light northerly surface flow will continue Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will be slightly below average for early next week with high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and overnight lows in the middle to upper 50s away from the lakeshore. Closer to the warm waters of the lake, temperatures will be in the 60s at night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A broad upper level trough will still be influencing the weather pattern over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday but the overall pattern flattens by the end of next week with a zonal flow. Temperatures will slowly return to seasonable to slightly above average by the end of next week. At this time, it appears the weather pattern will be generally dry with no significant chances for rainfall through the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the period as low pressure moves northeast through the Ohio valley. Some MVFR BR cannot be ruled out at KTOL/KFDY near daybreak. The potential for SHRA/TSRA increases this afternoon, mainly from KMFD west, but confidence in coverage too low for more than a PROB30 mention. A few SHRA may sneak into KCAK as well with the low moving just southeast of the area. Light winds through early morning will increase out of the southeast during the day.

Outlook . Non-VFR with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

MARINE. A weak surface low pressure system will be moving eastward across the upper Ohio Valley today staying south of the lake. Surface winds on the lake will be variable on the western end and a light easterly flow on the central portion of the lake around 5 to 10 knots. A slightly better organized low pressure system will move across the upper Great Lakes tonight with southerly wind increasing over the lake tonight. South winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots over the open water tonight. A weak cold front will move across the lake late on Sunday with a wind shift to the northwest 5 to 10 knots. Generally winds for Sunday night through Tuesday night are expected to be 5 to 15 knots from the northwest or north with waves 1 to 3 feet. There may be some potential early next week for isolated waterspouts with instability showers which may form over the lake due to warm water temperatures and colder air aloft.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Greenawalt NEAR TERM . Greenawalt SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Greenawalt MARINE . Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi76 min E 16 G 19 74°F 76°F3 ft1013.8 hPa (-1.4)
45164 40 mi76 min 76°F4 ft
AGCM4 40 mi46 min 68°F 74°F1015 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi76 min E 12 G 16 75°F2 ft1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi46 min E 8.9 G 11 71°F 78°F1012.8 hPa62°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi16 min NE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1015.2 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi23 minSE 410.00 miFair77°F57°F52%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5N3E6SE6SE6SE5SE6E9NE10
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1 day agoE4E5E5NE3CalmNE6NE7NE8NE9NE10NE11NE17
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NE13NE10NE8NE9NE5NE6E5CalmN4E3
2 days agoE3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5N10N11N12N11N12N12N12NE9NE10NE7NE10E8E6E4E6CalmNE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.