Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:31PM Thursday January 23, 2020 6:42 AM EST (11:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 4:19PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:202001231530;;380234 Fzus61 Kcle 230828 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 328 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. A ridge averaging 30.30 inches will extend back west across lake erie today. Low pressure 29.70 inches will move southeast to the western great lakes by Saturday. A secondary low pressure system will develop along the delmarva coast Friday night and the great lakes low will become absorbed into the coastal low over maine Sunday as it deepens to 29.40 inches. A trough averaging 29.80 inches will extend back west from the low over lake erie Sunday. High pressure 30.10 inches will build east across the ohio valley Monday. Lez061-165>169-231530- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 328 am est Thu jan 23 2020
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A slight chance of rain showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
LEZ166


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 231137 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 637 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast will drift east today. Tonight, low pressure will strengthen in the Central Plains. The low will move east and reach the Ohio Valley region Friday afternoon. The low will drift slowly northeast eventually reaching New England by Sunday as high pressure fills the Tennessee Valley.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. Update . Minor changes made to hourly temps and clouds.

Original . High pressure was along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast early today with a dry stable airmass extending west across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. Expecting a dry day today however moisture will be increasing through the day with clouds thickening and lowering during the afternoon into evening. Meanwhile low pressure will be strengthening in the Central Plains. The low will drift east and eventually into the area late Friday. Rain will move into the area from the west late this evening overspreading the area overnight into Friday. Will have low chance pops far west late this evening raising to likely by morning with chance pops reaching KCLE and KCAK. Expect categorical pops most places Friday. Big question is with ptype. Main concern is the freezing rain potential for tonight. Models definitely bring warm air aloft into the area through the overnight. At this time, although close, have sided with the majority of precip remaining rain based on model forecast soundings and three hourly guidance temps through the overnight remaining in the mid 30s at FDY and MFD. Best chance for freezing rain would likely be Lucas county so will have a mention there as temps drop into the lower 30s. Expect just rain for Friday. Highs today mostly lower 40s. Highs Friday about the same although upper 30s nwrn OH.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Deep upper level low pressure system will be vertically stacked with the surface low over the lower Great Lakes will be the dominant weather feature across the forecast area during this forecast period. Yesterday, the GFS was hinting at a low developing off the coast of New Jersey while the lower Great Lakes low lifted slowly north. The European model was consistent with a single low in the Great Lakes region. Both models today are suggesting a split low scenario and suggests the precipitation that moves into the local area eventually shifts to the coast by Saturday night. Some residual wrap around moisture will take place resulting in precipitation threat Saturday night into Sunday night and then transition to lake effect. Upper level temperature profiles suggest at this time that we should see mostly rain initially and then become mixed with snow and even all snow in the east by the end of the period. Surface temperatures are not expected to be remarkably cold across the area during the period as there is no strong push of cold arctic air into the region considering deep upper level low. Some dynamic cooling may take place under the low and may cause rain to change over to snow faster than expected Friday night into Saturday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Upper level low pressure system will move east of the area Monday allowing troughiness to linger back southwest toward the area. Eventually, upper level ridge will move east across the area and flatten with time as another ridge tries to build east. A potent little shortwave trough and associated positive vorticity maximum will move east across the central Great Lakes Tuesday evening followed by the ridge Wednesday. Weak surface high pressure and dry air mass will dominate the area Monday and Tuesday followed by low pressure that will move northeast toward the area Wednesday from the Oklahoma Panhandle region. A warm front will lift north across the area Wednesday afternoon and become nearly stationary while the low tracks along the front. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to stream north toward the region ahead of the low pressure system. Eventually, another round of rain/snow will arrive late Wednesday into Wednesday night with the low pressure system. A slow warming trend will take place in advance of the low pressure system as warm air advection tries to head northeast into the region.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/. High pressure was centered over the New England coast with dry stable air over Ohio. VFR conditions will persist though the evening and into the overnight. This afternoon however, moisture will begin to increase from the west as the high moves east and low pressure moves into the Central Plains. Between 00Z and 06Z Friday, light rain will be possible west possibly taking conditions to MVFR at FDY TOL AND MFD towards the end of the period. Also freezing rain will be possible but the best chance would be at KTOL. Rain with IFR conditions will overspread the area Friday.

OUTLOOK. Non VFR likely on Friday. Non VFR possible Friday night through Sunday in rain and snow. Non VFR possible in light lake effect snow Sunday night into Monday across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

MARINE. For the most part, the lake is expected to be relatively quiet through Friday morning. Low pressure will move east across the lake over the weekend and bring a brief period of slightly increasing winds until Sunday. Winds will increase a bit causing an increase in waves by Friday night. Not expecting any small craft advisories during that period. The next chance for small craft advisory conditions appears to be Sunday and Sunday night mainly east half of the lake. Winds diminish for Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . TK NEAR TERM . TK SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . TK MARINE . Lombardy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 40 mi55 min 29°F 33°F1022.9 hPa
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi55 min 33°F 33°F1023.7 hPa16°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi43 min S 1.9 G 5.1 29°F 1023.4 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S9S10S9S8S8S9SE8S8S8S13S12S8SE11S9SE11SE10SE14SE12S10SE10SE14SE13
1 day agoNW4W7W6W8SW12
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SW10SW10W11SW10SW8S6SW7SW10S6S8S8S9S8S7S6S6S6S7S8
2 days agoNW11N9N8N10N10N11N74N10NW8NW8NW9N8NW10NW7NW10NW9NW6NW11NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.