Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Algonac, MI
May 5, 2024 7:59 PM EDT (23:59 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 3:54 AM Moonset 4:48 PM |
LEZ166 Expires:202405060230;;682003 Fzus61 Kcle 051947 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 347 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will move east across the great lakes region tonight through Monday. A warm front with pressure of 29.50 inches lifts northeast across lake erie on Tuesday. A stronger area of low pressure tracks out of the plains towards the eastern great lakes by Thursday.
lez165>167-060230- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 347 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
Tonight - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 347 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez165>167-060230- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 347 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ100
No data
No data
FXUS61 KCLE 052340 AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 740 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
With the evening update, there are a couple hazards across the area worth keeping an eye on. The first are the few isolated thunderstorms that continue to linger in the Mahoning Valley, but these will continue to move east out of the CWA over the next few hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. The second hazard is the development of fog along the Ashtabula and Erie County lakeshore zones that has resulted in visibilities dropping as low as 1/2SM. Will keep an eye on conditions, but confidence is growing that far NE OH and NW PA will experience fog development overnight as winds weaken, which may warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. The only question that lingers is if temperatures will cool enough due to widespread cloud cover that is expected. Aside from these features, the bulk of the forecast is unchanged with this update.
Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any stronger storm.
High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight temps.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the location of the stalled frontal boundary.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The main surface low will finally track east across the north half of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under generally mostly cloudy skies.
AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
A cold front currently extends from near Erie County PA to the southwest near Youngstown, OH. This boundary will continue to shift east, pushing any lingering thunderstorms to the east in the next couple hours. Overall, the bulk of terminals are VFR this evening and are expected to remain VFR through the period.
The exception to this is primarily for the far eastern terminals, including KERI, KCAK, and KYNG, which may see areas of fog develop this evening into the overnight hours. Right now, KERI has already dropped to 1/2SM with ceilings of 200 ft. This may briefly lift from LIFR to low end IFR, but not expecting any true recovery to better conditions until Monday morning as low level moisture remains trapped under an inversion under the daytime heating helps to erode it. With KYNG and KCAK there is a bit more uncertainty of how low conditions will drop especially with clouds continuing to linger over the terminals.
Outside of the far eastern terminals, terminals near the I71 corridor may experience a brief period of low stratus overnight, but ceilings are expected to be in the MVFR range.
Moral of the story, for terminals who saw showers today there is a higher chance of getting foggy conditions, but elsewhere the cloud cover should limit radiational cooling an keep conditions better. By late morning/early afternoon on Monday, all terminals should rebound to VFR.
Winds overnight will generally be light and variable. By Monday morning, winds will strengthen to 5-10 knots from the northeast as high pressure pushes south over the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another system.
MARINE
A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds, and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 740 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM Update...
With the evening update, there are a couple hazards across the area worth keeping an eye on. The first are the few isolated thunderstorms that continue to linger in the Mahoning Valley, but these will continue to move east out of the CWA over the next few hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. The second hazard is the development of fog along the Ashtabula and Erie County lakeshore zones that has resulted in visibilities dropping as low as 1/2SM. Will keep an eye on conditions, but confidence is growing that far NE OH and NW PA will experience fog development overnight as winds weaken, which may warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. The only question that lingers is if temperatures will cool enough due to widespread cloud cover that is expected. Aside from these features, the bulk of the forecast is unchanged with this update.
Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any stronger storm.
High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight temps.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the location of the stalled frontal boundary.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The main surface low will finally track east across the north half of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under generally mostly cloudy skies.
AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
A cold front currently extends from near Erie County PA to the southwest near Youngstown, OH. This boundary will continue to shift east, pushing any lingering thunderstorms to the east in the next couple hours. Overall, the bulk of terminals are VFR this evening and are expected to remain VFR through the period.
The exception to this is primarily for the far eastern terminals, including KERI, KCAK, and KYNG, which may see areas of fog develop this evening into the overnight hours. Right now, KERI has already dropped to 1/2SM with ceilings of 200 ft. This may briefly lift from LIFR to low end IFR, but not expecting any true recovery to better conditions until Monday morning as low level moisture remains trapped under an inversion under the daytime heating helps to erode it. With KYNG and KCAK there is a bit more uncertainty of how low conditions will drop especially with clouds continuing to linger over the terminals.
Outside of the far eastern terminals, terminals near the I71 corridor may experience a brief period of low stratus overnight, but ceilings are expected to be in the MVFR range.
Moral of the story, for terminals who saw showers today there is a higher chance of getting foggy conditions, but elsewhere the cloud cover should limit radiational cooling an keep conditions better. By late morning/early afternoon on Monday, all terminals should rebound to VFR.
Winds overnight will generally be light and variable. By Monday morning, winds will strengthen to 5-10 knots from the northeast as high pressure pushes south over the area.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another system.
MARINE
A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds, and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45132 - Port Stanley | 38 mi | 59 min | NNW 9.7G | 55°F | 50°F | 1 ft | 30.01 | |
| 45164 | 39 mi | 59 min | N 5.8G | 55°F | 52°F | 1 ft | ||
| AGCM4 | 40 mi | 59 min | 56°F | 51°F | 30.01 | |||
| FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH | 49 mi | 59 min | NNE 1.9G | 58°F | 54°F | 29.98 | 56°F | |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 53 mi | 59 min | NE 8.9G | 57°F | 30.05 |
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Cleveland, OH,
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