Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:30 PM EDT (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:16AMMoonset 3:36PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:201908252015;;185455 Fzus61 Kcle 251336 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 936 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure, 30.50 inches, over quebec will continue to move east toward the canadian maritimes by this afternoon. The high will weaken and drop south into new england Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves out of the central and northern plains into the great lakes region. The cold front will cross lake erie Tuesday night. High pressure 30.00 inches will build in from the southwest Wednesday and Thursday. Lez164>167-252015- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- 936 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 251354
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
954 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across quebec and stretching across the great
lakes will provide another day and a half of fair weather to the
local area. Low pressure tracking from the canadian rockies east
to ontario early this week will take bring a warm front north
across the area Monday night and a cold front across Tuesday
night. High pressure will shift across the ohio valley Wednesday
into Thursday.

Near term through Monday
Increasing high clouds will filter the sunshine this afternoon.

The eastward shift of the high, now across quebec, will bring
winds around to the east southeast and the lake cloud cover
will be shifting across the lake toward mi. The southeast flow
will assist int drying the region with the coverage of cumulus
likely less than days prior. Again guidance has been running
low on expected high temperatures and have kept the temperatures
for today several degrees warmer. This is similar to what we
had going for today. Mid and upper 70s for most after a morning
start in the 50s. Will have another night in the 50s tonight
across the east, but enough of a southeast wind will keep
temperatures a few degrees warmer.

Monday introduces the next opportunity for a few showers across
the i-75 corridor and possibly to the central highlands. Surge
of deeper moisture will return with a warm front Monday
afternoon night. Under this initial corridor we will have
scattered showers. Less confidence in how far east these showers
will make it before evening. Temperatures will generally be in
the mid 70s with extensive cloud cover expected.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
A shortwave trough is expected to move northeast into our area,
advecting moisture and forcing showers across the area Monday
night and into Tuesday. A large scale trough is situated over
the upper midwest and will work its way east on Tuesday and
Wednesday with the trough axis through the lower great lakes by
00z Thursday. This will cause a deepening low over western
ontario with a cold front extending through the great lakes
region. A line of thunderstorms and showers are expected to
develop ahead of this cold front Tuesday afternoon and move east
through northern ohio Tuesday evening into the overnight hours.

A cold will closely follow, allowing mostly dry air to filter
in on Wednesday and Wednesday night. There may be just enough
remaining moisture for lake effect rain to persist over NW pa
and NE oh Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday
Lake effect rain showers may still persist through the daytime
hours on Thursday. A weak upper level trough is expected to move
east through the area sometime on Saturday or Sunday, though
there is substantial uncertainty with regard to the timing of
this this feature. Precipitation is expected to develop
downstream this wave on Friday or Saturday. Favoring the faster
canadian GFS solution and have chance pops Friday night into
Saturday morning. The ECMWF has a much slower solution with
precipitation moving through Saturday and into Sunday.

Followed primarily the ECMWF for timing through the long term
which shows a cold front dropping south across the region
Saturday. This could bring a shower or two to the area although
models don't show a great deal of moisture with the boundary.

Aside from that, high pressure will dominate the region. Highs
mainly mid and upper 70s.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Little change with this set of tafs. A third day in a row with
high pressure controlling the local weather with only fair
weather afternoon cumulus in the forecast. Flow will be more
east-southeast today as the high has shifted northeast of the
area. This will be a drying flow and expect fewer CU than
yesterday. Winds for cle eri will tend to be northeasterly for a
time this afternoon with a minor lake breeze. Some cirrus will
be headed our way Sunday night. Southeast winds at eri tonight
will have minor gusts to 25 knots.

Outlook... NonVFR possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.

Marine
Winds have decreased to around 10 to 15 knots and will meander
between east and southeast today over the lake today. For this
reason, we have allowed the small craft advisory to expire and
am not anticipating needing another one today. High pressure
over eastern quebec will continue to slowly move eastward and
weaken as a developing low over the northern atlantic overtakes
it. The eastward moving high pressure will allow winds to veer
to the south Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low pressure of
around 995 mb develops over western ontario by Tuesday morning,
increasing the pressure gradient over the lake and allowing
winds of 15 to 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday, with peak
winds around 12z on Tuesday. Since it's going to be offshore
flow, am not anticipating needing a small craft advisory for any
of our nearshore zones. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
Tuesday and into Wednesday before a cold front sweeps through
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure
passes to the south, keeping winds below 15 knots through the
end of the week.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mm oudeman
short term... Saunders
long term... Saunders
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi90 min ESE 9.7 G 12 67°F 74°F2 ft1024.4 hPa (+0.2)
45164 40 mi30 min 74°F2 ft
AGCM4 40 mi42 min 69°F 72°F1023.8 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi30 min Calm 67°F 72°F1 ft1023.4 hPa (-0.1)
45169 47 mi20 min ESE 9.7 G 14 72°F 75°F2 ft
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi42 min ESE 12 G 17 72°F 74°F1023.5 hPa50°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi30 min ENE 11 G 16 68°F 1023.7 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi37 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds74°F46°F38%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBKL

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13N12NE13NE14NE15N16NE17NE11NE9E9E10E9E9E12E8SE8SE5SE5SE7SE7S9SE9E8E10
1 day agoN11N10N10N11N8NE9N7N8N9N7N16N15N15
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2 days agoNE9E5NE7NE8NE8N10N8N9N8N13NE11N12N12NE12N11N10NE10N14N13NE8NE9N9N10N12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.