Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 222353 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 653 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

AVIATION.

High pressure builds slowly from the Midwest this evening into Lower Michigan and the Ohio valley during Saturday. NW low level wind diminishes while backing to the west during this time which keeps a supply of cold but increasingly dry air moving across the Great Lakes. Maintenance of low end VFR ceiling during the evening begins breaking up after midnight into Saturday morning before clearing Saturday afternoon. The possible exception is in the mbS area where WSW flow could direct some residual lake induced stratocu into the area, however the bulk of these clouds remain closer to the shoreline into Saturday evening.

For DTW . VFR clouds hold during the evening averaging a ceiling below 5000 ft. A decrease in coverage is expected late tonight into Saturday morning as the wind diminishes and high pressure brings increasingly dry air into the region.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less this evening. Moderate late tonight and low Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

DISCUSSION .

Lake effect snow showers focused mainly south of M-59 will taper off to flurries and end this evening as the low level airmass dries out considerably as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Inversion heights will also drop notably into the overnight period which will further restrict the plume of lake moisture from Lake Michigan. The last of the snow showers will actually hold on over parts of the Thumb through the evening before tapering off during the overnight as banding from Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan arc into the area over Saginaw Bay. With time, skies will also become partly cloudy which will allow temperatures to settle back into the lower teens despite a steady northwest to west wind. As the center of this high builds over the area on Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies to continue and cold conditions to remains with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

A weak shortwave impulse ejecting from a developing system over the southwest CONUS will be picked up by another northern stream wave as it pivots through the plains around the base of an upper low over central Canada. An period of isentropic ascent will arrive over the region early Sunday as the resulting trough axis shifts into the central Great Lakes. Expect light snow to expand into the region with this area of ascent, but with overall weak to modest forcing and limited moisture, generally do not expect much more than an inch of snow on average. At this time, the best lift is forecast over the northern forecast area where a few areas may over-achieve with 1 to 2 inches. This positioning would also lead to lower amounts less than an inch further south to the Michigan and Ohio state line.

The aforementioned storm system digging through California today on into the southwest CONUS this weekend will eject into the southern plains as the next Pacific shortwave crashes onshore along the west coast. This system will lift into the Ohio Valley early next week and provide the area with a chance of accumulating snow. The north to south orientation of this shortwave as it tracks into the area remains the main question as its northward progression is shunted by the central Canada upper low as it is sheared east over Ontario.

While confidence in not particularly high as of yet on how the interaction with this wave with the northern stream baroclinic zone will evolve, medium range model solutions seem to be converging on a track that supports a relatively narrow stripe of heavy snow over the northern Ohio Valley into parts of far southern lower Michigan. As was mentioned yesterday, the gradient between little/no snow and significant 4-6" or more snowfall will be very tight so small changes to the track of this system will lead to widely varying snowfall potential. Hence, the continued low confidence even knowing the system will be in close proximity to the area by late Monday/Monday night.

Once snowfall from this system winds down Tuesday morning, the remainder of the week appears to be dry as high pressure settles southeast into the Great Lakes from Canada. This high will also maintain seasonably cold conditions as highs reach the 20s to around 30 and lows dip in the teens.

MARINE .

Northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots over the Central Great Lakes this afternoon will continue into the evening, as a cold airmass is fully entrenched over the region, leading to deep mixing and snow squalls over Lake Huron. Winds could briefly reach higher values in the enhanced convergence zones. Freezing spray will also be around as temps fall into the upper teens to around 20 degrees. Winds look to be slow to diminish tonight over the marine waters, and it is possible small craft advisories for the northern tip of the Thumb region will be extended into Saturday. Will decide with the 10 PM forecast issuance.

Northwest flow will persist on Saturday, but winds will drop to 15 knots or less by the end of the day, with light and variable winds setting up Saturday evening-night as a ridge axis slides through.

Light southerly flow expected on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Great Lakes through Sunday night. A period of light warm advection snow likely in this time frame, but visibility's probably remaining at or above 2 miles.

A much stronger low will lift into the Ohio Valley late Monday, and will lead to increasing east-northeast/onshore flow (up around 25 knots), and small craft advisories may be needed by Monday evening and continued into Tuesday. Snow will likely overspread Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair, and possibly as far north as southern third of lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	11 mi	53 min	NW 11 G 18	21°F			1020 hPa (+2.1)
AGCM4	32 mi	53 min		21°F	36°F		1018.8 hPa (+2.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	53 mi	53 min		21°F			1017.7 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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W12 G19

W11 G17

W12 G16

W10 G16

W11 G14

W12 G19

W10 G16

W10 G16

W8 G13

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NW8 G14

W13 G22

NW13 G19

NW10 G14

W13

W10 G17

W14 G18

W11 G16

NW11 G16

NW13 G18

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W11 G15

NW12 G19

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1 day ago

SW12 G17

SW14 G18

S12 G19

SW16 G22

SW13 G22

SW11 G17

SW11 G19

SW10 G21

SW9 G17

SW11 G16

SW8 G16

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SW8 G16

W11 G17

SW11 G16

W17 G24

W18 G24

W13 G24

W17 G25

W18 G29

W16 G24

W14 G20

W11 G17

W11 G17

2 days ago

W4 G7

W7 G10

W5 G9

W6 G10

W10 G13

NW11 G16

NW11 G18

NW11 G17

NW7 G10

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NW6

W4

W3

SW3 G7

SW5 G9

SW5 G10

W6 G12

W9 G13

SW5 G9

S11 G15

SW10 G16

SW12 G19

SW11 G14

S12 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	4 mi	60 min	WNW 8 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	4°F	47%	1020.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	13 mi	58 min	NW 9 G 15	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	6°F	52%	1020 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	19 mi	60 min	NW 10	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	5°F	50%	1020.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	20 mi	58 min	NW 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	22°F	8°F	53%	1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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W9 G19

W12 G23

W10 G21

NW9 G15

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W9

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NW10 G21

NW11 G21

NW9 G18

W11 G20

NW13 G19

NW9 G16

NW12 G17

N9

NW11 G19

NW9

NW8 G19

NW8 G19

NW12 G19

NW8

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NW8 G20

1 day ago

SW17 G26

SW16 G27

SW17 G25

SW17 G24

SW15 G22

SW14 G25

SW11 G21

SW13 G21

SW11

SW14 G19

SW12

SW12

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SW12 G21

SW10 G20

SW14

W14 G23

W12 G24

W17 G24

W15 G26

W15 G22

W7 G21

W15 G28

W16 G27

2 days ago

SW9

W10

W6

W8

N8 G17

N9 G20

NW7

NW6

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W5

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W4

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SW9

W5

W7 G15

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SW8 G17

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SW13 G20

SW13 G23

SW14 G25

SW13

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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