Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 191100 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 600 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

AVIATION.

CAA continues with strong westerly flow this morning as sufficient moisture streams across lower MI to produce scattered lake effect snow showers. Activity will temporarily wane this morning before a cold front drops south. This front will maintain a semi-correlated band of snow followed by a northerly wind shift on the back end. Timing for snowfall beings with mbS around 12Z before exiting south of DTW prior to 21Z. Gusty will be strongest this morning before gradually diminishing during the course of afternoon, especially after the frontal passage. MVFR conditions are expected outside of any snow shower activity until expansive high pressure over the northern Plains broadens into the Great Lakes this evening thinning out the persistent stratus deck.

For DTW . Gusts initialize around 30 knots with westerly flow before diminishing throughout the day, especially once a cold front clears. A band of snow showers along said front may produce quick bursts of dry snow with temporary IFR (or LIFR) vsby reductions. Otherwise, MVFR continues until this evening with chilly temperatures.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet through Sunday afternoon.

* High in precipitation type as snow today.

* Low in exceeding crosswind threshold from 250-270 degrees tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 241 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION .

Trailing vorticity center on backside of sheared out upper system will pivot southeast through the forecast area early this morning and maintain light snow shower activity lift from this feature is aided by moisture flux within westerly flow from Lake Michigan. A secondary cold front will settle north to south through the area in the wake of this upper wave. Convergence along this front will most likely grab dominant Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan snow band and bring in southward. Early morning low level trajectories suggest this feature will impact parts of the northern Thumb region as it picks up just a bit more moisture crossing Saginaw Bay. Given radar trends early this morning, will increase snow chances in this area and up accumulations to at least an inch locally.

Some semblance of this band will persist as this front progresses through the region today with timing from north to south still in the 14z-22z window. Will adjust snow chances/amounts slightly based on the expected progression of this feature. Outside the Thumb, where additional lake effect activity from Lake Huron also pivots onshore during the day, expect accumulations to be an inch or less. Over the Thumb, particularly Huron county, would anticipate several inches of new snow from early this morning into the afternoon. Aside from lingering lake effect snow showers along the immediate shore of Lake Huron early this evening, expect a much drier air mass to begin shifting into the area as sprawling surface high pressure centered over the northern plains/upper midwest gradually builds into the Great lakes.

This drier pattern will hold into the middle of the week as said high pressure settles into the Ohio Valley region by Wednesday morning. Cold conditions will hold for the remainder of the weekend on into Tuesday as temperatures actually drop below average for a change this winter. Highs will range in lower/mid 20s into Monday and edge up into the upper 20s Monday while lows settle into the teens and in some cases single digits.

Upper ridging then expands over the eastern CONUS from mid to late in the week as shortwave energy gradually digs into the plains from the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will moderate into the 30s and eventually lower 40s in some locations by week's end as this system approaches the area. Precipitation chances will also increase in the Friday to Saturday time frame with a mix of rain and snow showers as the resultant upper low pressure system from this Pacific energy shift east of the Mississippi Valley. At this time, this system appears to remain largely cutoff from the northern stream storm track as upper ridging encompasses much of Canada with upper troughing displayed well east/northeast from area east of Hudson Bay on into Greenland. This will limit any significant cool down with (and in the wake of this system).

MARINE .

Colder air will continue to funnel across the lakes Sunday as a strong low pressure system moves east away from the region. West southwest winds will continue to bring gales through the early morning hours on Sunday. A trailing cold front will then be forced south across the lake Sunday morning, with winds turning north- northwest in the wake of the front. The post frontal gradient will be weakening, so wind speeds/gusts will then actually decrease slightly Sunday morning. Northerly winds then persist through the day on Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ444.



AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	11 mi	51 min	W 19 G 26	20°F			1014.2 hPa (+2.3)
AGCM4	32 mi	51 min		21°F	35°F		1013.2 hPa (+3.1)
TWCO1	48 mi	31 min	W 26 G 33
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	53 mi	51 min		22°F			1011.9 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Last 24hr

S10

S15 G19

S15 G19

S14 G19

S16 G21

SW16 G25

SW13 G21

W15 G24

W18 G30

W20 G29

W18 G27

W11 G22

W19 G31

W13 G22

W20 G31

W17 G23

W15 G26

W20 G25

W15 G21

W13 G20

W15 G23

W15 G24

W10 G18

W12 G23

1 day ago

NW3

NW5

E9

E8 G11

SE7 G10

E11

E12 G16

E12 G15

E10 G13

E8

E8

E8 G11

E8 G12

E11

E12 G15

SE8 G14

E12 G15

E17 G21

E14 G20

SE13 G19

SE15

SE16 G20

SE6 G9

S5

2 days ago

W7 G13

NW12 G23

W14 G22

W16 G21

NW15 G20

NW13 G22

NW14 G20

NW11 G20

NW11 G18

NW12 G17

NW15 G21

NW11 G16

NW7 G13

NW8 G13

NW10 G14

NW7 G12

NW6 G9

NW7

NW4

NE5 G11

NE5 G11

NE7 G12

N3 G8

NW4

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	4 mi	58 min	W 13 G 21	10.00 mi	Overcast	20°F	12°F	74%	1015.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	13 mi	56 min	W 12 G 19	10.00 mi	Light Snow	20°F	15°F	83%	1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	19 mi	58 min	W 13 G 22	6.00 mi	Light Snow	18°F	12°F	77%	1016.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	20 mi	1.9 hrs	W 16 G 24	10.00 mi	Overcast	21°F	16°F	83%	1013.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	20 mi	56 min	W 10 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	18°F	11°F	76%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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S11

S13 G24

S12 G21

S12

S13 G21

SW10

SW11

SW15 G26

W20 G34

W15 G23

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W16 G25

W11 G18

SW9

W15 G27

W15 G29

W14 G26

W15 G25

W16 G29

W19 G28

W16 G23

W13 G24

W16 G23

W13 G21

1 day ago

N7

N4

4

E5

E6

SE5

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E11

E10

SE12 G18

SE14 G20

SE15 G22

SE21 G30

SE12 G25

E12

SE11 G22

SE10

2 days ago

NW14 G21

NW9 G17

W16 G26

W16 G26

NW13 G26

W13 G23

NW15 G24

NW14 G24

NW16 G22

NW13 G19

NW9 G18

NW10 G20

NW9

NW9 G16

N7 G18

N12 G18

NW7

NW8

N11

N6

N7

N5

N4

N5

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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