Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 270359 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1159 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

AVIATION.

Remnants of an MCS now over the UP/northern WI will dissipate as it moves into the area late tonight/early Tuesday morning with shower activity most likely in KMBS and perhaps KFNT/KPTK. Additional scattered convection will be possible in the afternoon as boundary from this overnight activity acts as low level focus. Will include prob30 for shras KPTK north, but may very well end up with a bit better tsra coverage than that (although that seems more likely over towards the Thumb).

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 351 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

DISCUSSION .

Dry weather holds for the remainder of today before the MN shortwave rides along an upper trough into northern MI late tonight. Upstream convection is expected to develop over the Upper Great Lakes late this evening and ride along the cold front into northern MI overnight before reaching the Saginaw Valley/Thumb areas by Tuesday morning. This storms will outrun their moisture/instability source as the moisture advection currently ongoing across the Midwest doesn't begin over southern MI until later in the day Tuesday. Because of this, convection is expected to fizzle during the morning across the northern portions of the CWA. The cold front still looks to stall over SE MI during the afternoon Tuesday becoming the focal point for additional scattered shower and storm development. Hi-res guidance keeps hinting at the boundary stalling somewhere north of M- 59 which places "best" precip chances across the northern half of the CWA (along and north of the M-59 corridor). Best is in quotes as chances are not particularly high as trends in guidance keeps the richer theta-e plume to our west over WI and south over IL/IN limiting the abundance of moisture over SE MI (dewpoints still look to make a run into the mid 60s). Will maintain chance-scattered PoPs for areas north of M-59 and slight chance-isolated south. Can't completely rule out a stronger to borderline severe storm with this evening convection as a jet streak approaches the region from the NW increasing 0-6km bulk shear values up around 40kts. Mid-level lapse rates are decent enough in the 6-7C/km range. Limiting factor is looking to be instability with MLCAPE only peaking around 1000 J/kg at most (CAMs today have trended down compared to last night). Overall its very marginal severe chance and SPC has pulled SE MI out of the marginal risk.

The jet streak helps to shunt the cold front along into OH by early Wednesday ahead of the next system developing of the upper Midwest. This shortwave will be stronger than the Tuesday shortwave and drives a strong cold front south through SE MI daytime Thursday. A reinforcing surge of moisture reaches SE MI ahead of the cold front Wednesday night allowing dewpoints to reach into the low 70s daytime Thursday. With that amount of moisture in place, the environment is supportive of rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr. Some of the mid-range model solutions try to get a strip higher QPF (1"+) across lower MI however there is extreme variability in placement ranging from the Thumb to I-75 corridor to over West Michigan. Too much uncertainty at this point try and nail down QPF but it should be noted the potential for heavy rainfall will exist as showers and storms cross SE MI Thursday. A cooler, less humid airmass follows the frontal passage as 850mb temps drop to 7-9C Friday. This airmass settles over the central Great Lakes through the weekend as an upper trough digs south across the region. Below average highs can be expected during this period.

MARINE .

High pressure in place across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to bring continued favorable marine conditions for the remainder of the day as winds remain light across the marine areas. A cold front to then pass late tonight through Tuesday morning which will bring likely showers and some thunderstorms across Lake Huron through the morning. Specifically, shower and storm chances start shortly after Midnight across northern Lake Huron, with precipitation moving south across the Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron through the mid-morning hours. A subtle wind direction from the north will occur after the passage of the front. Activity will likely dwindle before reaching Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie as the frontal boundary stalls. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will then be possible around central Michigan, depending on where the frontal boundary stalls.

A weak area of high pressure will settle in behind the cold front which will maintain light winds through the midweek period. Passage of a warm front and area of low pressure will then move in early Thursday morning, which will bring a new chance to see showers and thunderstorms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . KDK MARINE . AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	11 mi	70 min	WSW 5.1 G 7	78°F			1016.3 hPa (+0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair	19 mi	70 min	SW 7.8 G 7.8	77°F	75°F		1014.8 hPa (+0.2)
AGCM4	32 mi	160 min		71°F	72°F		1015.4 hPa
45165	48 mi	30 min	WSW 5.8 G 5.8	78°F	79°F	1 ft
TWCO1	48 mi	30 min	SW 6 G 6		77°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	53 mi	160 min		77°F			1014 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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SW7 G10

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W6 G11

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SW4 G9

SW7 G14

SW11 G16

SW10 G15

SW5 G12

SW12 G21

SW11 G17

SW8 G15

SW8 G17

SW6 G13

S6 G13

W5 G9

NW2

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	4 mi	77 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	60°F	52%	1015.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI	13 mi	75 min	WSW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	62°F	61%	1016.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI	19 mi	77 min	WSW 5	9.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	75°F	61°F	62%	1015.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	20 mi	74 min	WSW 6	10.00 mi	Fair	75°F	62°F	64%	1015.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI	20 mi	75 min	WNW 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	73°F	64°F	71%	1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)

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N9 G19

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W3

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S14 G21

SW14 G25

SW17 G25

SW14 G26

SW11 G19

SW20 G28

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