Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 3:35 PM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 956 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late morning and early afternoon - .then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 040357 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1157 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure fills in Saturday supporting mainly dry conditions ahead of the next weak cold front to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to SE MI late in the day through Sunday.

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION

The late afternoon and evening band of showers collapsed with the cold front while exiting into Ontario leaving the forecast up to clouds and fog late tonight through morning. Weak high pressure on an axis across northern Lake Huron and northern Lower Mi maintains a flow of cool and moist NE wind into SE Mi augmented by the cold water of Lake Huron. Just enough pressure gradient remains for wind speed in the 5 to 10 kt range favoring borderline LIFR/IFR stratus with a lighter fog component overall. The stratus plume expands westward from remnants of the cold front mainly affecting PTK, FNT, and mbS. NE wind direction aligned with the Ontario peninsula guards the DTW corridor from more than stray coverage. Wind veering SE directs clouds into western/northern Lower Mi during the morning while following a standard diurnal trend into a low end broken VFR ceiling for the afternoon. A stray shower is possible late in the day and closer to the interior of Lower Mi as Friday's cold front stalls in Ohio and then moves back northward as a warm front into Saturday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are not expected late tonight through the morning. Very low potential for a thunderstorm with limited coverage by late afternoon precludes a mention in the forecast at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late afternoon and Saturday evening.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and high by afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

DISCUSSION...

Broken line of showers currently extends from roughly Saginaw to Coldwater, with no observed lightning activity at issuance.
Instability has been the main limiting factor thus far, with MLCAPE holding aob 250 J/kg and observed temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. Pockets of sunshine ahead of the line may increase instability enough through the evening to support a few embedded thunderstorms, but for now storm tops have struggled to even reach the freezing level. Slow eastward progression of the line (15-20 mph) and waning instability after 00z with loss of diurnal heating may prevent the line from even getting to easternmost portions of the cwa.

Post-frontal subsidence introduces a deep layer of static stability to the column overnight, most prominent near the Tri Cities and Thumb. In these locations, patchy fog is expected especially as onshore flow emerges from Lake Huron. Elsewhere, weaker inversion and poor decoupling signal suggest stratus or more localized fog development Saturday morning. Otherwise, a drier day is in store Saturday for SE MI. Upstream, a surface low lifts toward Lake Superior which effectively draws the theta-e axis back into lower Michigan by Saturday afternoon which boosts temperatures into the mid 70s. The boost to boundary layer conditions will be enough to build surface-based instability, but any convective initiation will depend on localized convergence or lake breezes. So at this point, just a stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon.

Broader convective coverage is expected early Sunday morning as the surface low sweeps another cold front across the cwa. Persistent lack of mid-upper level jet support and modest elevated instability suggest showers and a few thunderstorms to be possible Sunday morning before clearing out by mid-day. Mid-level ridging then holds steady through middle of next week ahead of a strong Pacific disturbance which will be the next opportunity for widespread precipitation. High temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s as an open Gulf and southwest flow keep conditions above average for early May standards.

MARINE...

A line of showers will continue to work east across the central Great Lakes this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not expected. Light northeast wind will occur behind the front tonight with mainly dry conditions as a localized area of high pressure builds in. Will monitor observational trends over Lake Huron where conditions may be favorable for areas of dense marine fog to form overnight into Saturday morning. Winds then gradually organize out of the southeast on Saturday as the high departs east. Southerly winds up to 20 knots develop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front with winds turning northwesterly behind it Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for the early work week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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