Tuesday, January19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:30PM Tuesday January 19, 2021 1:01 PM EST (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 924 Am Est Tue Jan 19 2021
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon...then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow late in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and early morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202101192115;;162241 FZUS63 KDTX 191424 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 924 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak low pressure system will minimize near 29.80 inHg near the Soo Locks as it moves east today. High pressure maximizes near 30.20 inHg while building into the Great Lakes on Wednesday, followed by a clipper low strengthening to 29.10 inHg on Thursday. Stronger high pressure returns over the Plains on Friday. LCZ460-192115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 191720 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1220 PM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

AVIATION.

VFR and MVFR cigs will continue to be ongoing through the afternoon before lower cigs move in ahead of a shortwave approaching this evening. West-southwest winds have begun to increase across the area with winds sustained in the 10-15 kt range and gusts to around 20kts. The approaching shortwave this evening will bring chances for light snow after 00Z this evening. Best coverage continues to be from PTK south to the Detroit area sites. FNT may get clipped by the edge of the light snow, with mbS remaining dry. There will be chances for IFR cigs and vsbys that may accompany the snow. Models are still consistent with a stronger band of snow setting up across the Detroit area mainly focused between the 02Z to 07Z time window. No major updates were made to the TAFs at time of issuance early this afternoon since everything looks to be on track thus far. Conditions begin to improve after 08Z once the shortwave moves away from the area with conditions coming back up into low VFR.

For DTW . Cigs in the VFR and MVFR range will continue through the afternoon before MVFR conditions take over as snow moves in. Snow will be generally light (MVFR) but there is some limited potential for a stronger band to cross the terminal between 03-06Z dropping conditions in IFR.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through this afternoon, high this evening through the early overnight hours.

* High in precip type as all snow this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 359 AM EST Tue Jan 19 2021

DISCUSSION .

Longwave troughing over Northeastern North America continues to support diffuse lake aggregate surface trough over the Great Lakes this morning. The trend over the past 6hrs or so has been for a broadening and an increase in zonal flow over Lower Michigan. As a result, the lake aggregate trough is beginning to release off of Lake Michigan and is migrating through the cwa. While deep moisture has waned some time ago, the subtle increase in surface convergence front along the surface trough has resulted in an increase in ground hz or mist. So while there has been no automated observations of any active drizzle, the ground hz or mist has been freezing on the cold ground (temperatures now in the upper 20s). The office has fielded a few reports across the I 69 and I 75 corridors, the Thumb, and now northern Metro Detroit. Have included freezing drizzle in the forecast and will continue to message with SPS products.

Absolute vorticity energy diving southward through the Canadian Prairie Provinces will rapidly dig across the southern Great Lakes region this evening. Complex evolution of upper level jet stream will help the vorticity maximum amplify as it tracks across the region. Current forecast information tracks the vort max directly across southern Lower Michigan between 00-06Z this evening.

Models show a high rate of change to the shortwave organization this afternoon, with much of the 700mb moisture not coming together until roughly 21Z over portions of Wisconsin/northern Mississippi River Valley. Not surprising then to see the solution variance with this system. The interesting aspect of this event is the resilient hires signal for an organized west to east banding that will develop over Southern Lower Michigan/Southwest Lower Michigan this evening. The conditional mesoscale snow banding would then arrive over far southern Southeast Michigan and Ohio border between 03-06Z this evening. Given the direct forcing for ascent on the nose of differential vorticity advection, always err on the side for overachievement in these cases. Forecast soundings are very respectable in proximity to the convective response with deep saturation through 10.0 kft agl and deep UVV crosshair through the DGZ, -10 to -20C. The outstanding question becomes where exactly this band will stripe over. Given the dynamic setup and microphysics potential, the potential does exist for a quick 1+ inch for localized areas 02-05Z The limits on this event are. extremely short event duration, and questionable midlevel saturation/moisture outside of the convection (models suggest midlevel moisture well out ahead of 850mb forcing).

Dynamic shortwave is forecasted to dig across far western Ontario late Wednesday and Thursday. Vigorous vort maximum well within deep planetary vorticity reservoir supports a strong event. Models continue to show that lead isentropic lift wing and developing warm front will be well north of Lower Michigan. Deep dry air and strong static stability from 4.0 through 16.0 kft agl will keep conditions dry for Southeast Michigan. A notable aspect of the Thursday forecast will be modest breezy conditions during the day as increase pressure gradient and daytime heating will support a well mixed boundary layer.

The item to watch for Friday will be the shallow arctic cold front that will coast due southward across Lower Michigan. Uncertainty does exist on timing as model data has been slowing down the arrival. Current indications suggest during the daytime Friday. Blustery weather with falling temperatures will be likely behind this feature. A lot of uncertainty exists with quality of moisture. Surface high pressure then for much of the weekend and maybe just maybe some sunshine.

MARINE .

Westerly winds will be on the rise today as the surface pressure gradient further contracts bringing increased wave action to the southern half of Lake Huron. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory along the Thumb and Outer Bay until late this evening, mainly for elevated waves. There is modest potential to expire the advisory ahead of schedule if weaker model trends continue. Morning winds will generally peak in the 20-25 knot range (highest over the open waters), then fall below 20 knots this evening. Brief high pressure ridging arrives on Wednesday supporting modest northwesterly gradient winds backing southwest in the afternoon with drier conditions. Wave heights will be monitored for additional Small Craft Advisories as a more active atmosphere aloft encompasses the central Great Lakes into Thursday with gustier westerly flow followed by colder northwest wind on Friday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for LHZ362-363-421-422-441-462.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SS DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi62 min W 9.9 G 18 30°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 25 mi44 min 31°F 38°F1017.9 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi62 min WSW 20 G 22 29°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi44 min 30°F 1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi69 minW 1110.00 miOvercast31°F19°F61%1019.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi66 minW 1310.00 miOvercast31°F20°F65%1019.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi67 minW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast30°F21°F69%1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8W3NW5W4SW5W5W6W4W4W4W3W3CalmCalmW5W6W4W8W6W5W9W7W8W7
2 days agoW7W9W9W10W8W8SW11SW7SW9SW8W8W8W6W6W6W5W5W6W5W7W5W6W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.