Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:28PM Saturday January 18, 2020 9:43 AM EST (14:43 UTC) Moonrise 1:45AMMoonset 12:46PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 335 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
.gale warning in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots veering to the southwest with gusts to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. Snow until late afternoon. Light rain likely in the afternoon. A chance of drizzle in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow in the evening...then a chance of light snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202001182115;;126097 FZUS63 KDTX 180835 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will continue to lift northeast through the central Great Lakes region on Saturday. This low will deepen from 29.60 inches near southern Lake Michigan Saturday morning to around 29.40 inches Saturday evening over northern Lake Huron. Gusts to gale-force will be likely across the central Great Lakes with Gale Warnings up for Lakes Huron, St. Clair, and Michigan waters of Erie. LCZ460-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 181053 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 553 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

AVIATION.

Snow will be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast with periods of heavy snow possible for an hour or two before a changeover to sleet/ice pellets occurs and then a quick diminishing in intensity of the precip as mid level dry slot works into the area with -DZ still possible. Showers, both snow and rain, will pivot back into the area this afternoon as the center of low pressure tracks to the north. Ceilings will remain IFR to lower MVFR for the most part. Winds will veer from SE early this morning to S midday to WSW/W this evening. Gusts will range 20-25 knots and then pick up closer to 30 knots in cold air advection within WSW/W flow after cold fropa late today.

For DTW . Moderate to heavy snow will be ongoing at 12z with a transition or mix to ice pellets/sleet close by. Just before this transition, snowfall rates may approach 2 inches/hour early in the forecast. By mid morning, precipitation will transition to -DZ w/ surface temperatures edging into the mid 30s. Scattered showers will work back into the area in advance of approaching cold front this afternoon. A gusty southerly wind during the early-mid afternoon period expected to veer to westerly and increase after 22z as the cold front passes. Gusts in excess of 30 knots at times into the evening period, leading to crosswind considerations.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet into tonight.

* High that precip will transition from snow to sleet to drizzle this morning and remain -dz/-shra this afternoon.

* Moderate in exceeding crosswind threshold from 250-270 degrees late this afternoon through early Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 500 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

DISCUSSION .

The first band of snow lifted into SE MI right on schedule with KADG (Adrian) reporting first -SN obs in the 03Z METAR. Mosaic MRMS composite reflectivity continues to show various waves of banded snowfall moving from SW to NE as KDTX indicates some +25 dBZ returns correlating with reductions in visibilities down to 1/2SM. Several early reports over 1 in/hr rates have come in as a good 1-3 inch base holds over portions of the Warning area.

With regard to the surface low track, models remain fairly consistent with placing the primary center near where the Upper Mississippi intersects the 43rd parallel at 12Z. Surface dewpoint depressions have been slightly subsaturated this morning which has helped maintain relatively normal snow character (neither wet nor dry). 925-850mb moisture surged in along 20C gradient over the span of 30 miles when crossing through the low-levels earlier this morning. Thermal profiles will start to become more isothermal in the lowest 300 mb before the warm nose punctures the 850 mb level signaling the transition away from snow. Limited refinements were made to snowfall amounts for the rest of the event as uncertainty in SLR reductions linger. Generally, 10:1 to 14:1 rates should hold across the region through 12Z with perhaps an earlier degradation for southern Lenawee and Monroe counties as mixed precipitation and rain is being reported slightly south of the MI/IN/OH borders. Periods of heavier snowfall have been noticed early today within occasional convective structures which have the full support of lower static stability and favorable ascent. A FGEN band is currently moving in displaying impressive returns, thus will continue to hang onto the mention of +SN over the WS.W counties. With the exception of localized areas seeing 8 inches (perhaps 9), most localities will end up in 5-7 inches range. Accumulating snowfall will continue over the Thumb into the early afternoon hours given the delayed WAA intrusion, thus the uptick in storm totals there.

The converged wave aloft will pivot into the Ohio Valley forcing the low to make landfall near Ludington shortly after 18Z by which time the warm sector will be in full force. The progression of the changeover looks to be perhaps be delayed by an hour or so with most areas holding onto snow until 13Z. Areas south of I-96 will see at least some rain or drizzle mix in from 12-15Z as the warm/occluded front lifts north. All areas will see some degree of rain after 18Z. Expanded the rain chances further north (and earlier) with this forecast cycle even as temps were pulled back a bit. Surface temperatures will still climb above freezing area wide late today as southeasterly flow veers southerly then back to the west as the dry slot fills in with stronger winds as the gradient is maximized. 20- 30 mph sustained winds will be possible.

Temperatures will fall into the upper teens to lower 20s overnight as confluent anticyclonic flow advects colder Canadian air into the Great Lakes for the next several days. Moisture will be re-sourced from the Central Lakes producing scattered lake effect snow showers on Sunday. Hi-Res guidance is already hinting at a decent leading convergence band pushing south from Saginaw Bay by Sunday morning. Given the resident airmass and cold temperatures, could see a coating up to an inch for areas near the Thumb. This strong high will take hold over the central Plains under an expanding ridge which will maintain general NW flow pattern through Tuesday.

MARINE .

A low pressure system will deepen while tracking northeast through the central Great Lakes on Saturday bringing a period of heavy wet snow through Saturday morning before exiting off to the east on Sunday. Winds gusts will likely reach low-end gales across Lake Huron with a a Gale Warning in effect on Saturday across the open waters of the lake. Winds will then switch to strong westerly late Saturday behind a cold front. A Gale Warning will go into effect for western Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair Saturday afternoon through early Sunday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for MIZ068>070-075-076- 082-083.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063.

Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ063-070.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ049- 055-076-083.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ441>443-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . KK MARINE . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi44 min SSE 12 G 21 32°F 1014.2 hPa (-6.1)
AGCM4 25 mi62 min 31°F 34°F1014.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi104 min SE 24 G 27 33°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi62 min 29°F 1014.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi62 min SSE 14 G 21 29°F 1013.9 hPa27°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi51 minSSE 111.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1014.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi1.8 hrsSE 15 G 230.63 miSnow Freezing Fog31°F30°F100%1016.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi49 minSSE 50.75 miLight Snow31°F31°F100%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDET

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN44E5E6SE5SE6SE9SE7SE7SE10SE8SE8E9E11E10SE12
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1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoSE4SE7E10SE8E7E9E6NE4NE3S3S4Calm6W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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