Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Butte Falls, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:42PM Saturday November 28, 2020 8:06 AM PST (16:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butte Falls, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 281600 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 800 AM PST Sat Nov 28 2020

DISCUSSION. 28/12Z NAM in. 28/12Z GFS in through 84hr.

There are extensive areas of fog/freezing fog over the west side valleys this morning. A cloud band associated with an incoming front is also moving through the area. No precipitation related to the front has been recorded.

The flow aloft over the Pacific northwest is quasizonal, and a short wave embedded in the flow is pushing a weak front onshore at this time. This will be a dry front for almost all of the Medford forecast area. Some very light precipitation may fall near Reedsport, but that will be about it. While the front will induce some mixing, it won't be enough to end the stagnant weather pattern currently in place over the area.

Weak ridging will return Saturday night into Sunday. This will allow the stagnant conditions to continue. Inversions over the valleys will be slow to burn off in the daytime and some areas may not clear at all. Winds in the valleys will be light, but above the inversions, dry easterly flow aloft will keep the ridges clear and relatively warm.

A stronger short wave will move in Monday, and this will push a front onshore late Sunday night into Monday. This will be the most significant system between now and next Friday, but it will also be on the weak side.

There will be some rain at the coast late Sunday night into Monday morning with some precipitation reaching to the Cascades by late Monday morning. Most of the support for this system will push east of the area Monday afternoon and precipitation will end by Monday evening. The current forecast shows a tenth to around a third of an inch at the coast and also over to the Cascades north of Crater Lake, with lesser amounts to the south and east. This would result in an inch or so of snow for areas above 4500 feet in the Cascades. The front will weaken as it moves east of the Cascades, so precipitation chances will diminish to less than 15% in parts of Modoc/eastern Lake Counties. The front will induce some mixing in the air mass, and should be enough to end the Air Stagnation Advisory currently in effect.

However, dry weather and air stagnation will return, as another ridge will build into the area Monday. This one will be stronger and, while it won't quite make it to omega block status, it will progress east very slowly, making for a dry week.

Long term discussion . Tuesday 01 Dec through Saturday 05 Dec 2020. Strong upper level ridging will be the dominant weather driver during the extended period. This means another period of stagnant weather with dry conditions and overnight/morning fog for west side valleys. The deterministic GFS/EC solutions attempt to bring fronts into the area, but they all wash out as they move into the strong ridge. Model ensembles and cluster analysis support dry conditions during this time and lend to high confidence in this pattern. This pattern isn't likely to change through at least next weekend. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 28/12Z TAFs . LIFR cig/vis due to fog/freezing fog will last through late morning. Clearing of the fog is likely to be slow come morning.

A weak front will approach and dissipate along the coast in the early morning, which may disrupt the fog along the coast as higher clouds drift in over top. So confidence on extent and timing is not high. Similarly at Klamath Falls, MOS and other model guidance does not show another night of fog, so did not include it in the TAF, but it can't be ruled out either. -Miles/Sven

MARINE. Updated 730 AM PST Saturday 28 Nov 2020 . Seas will remain steep through this morning. A weak cold front will dissipate over the waters north of Cape Blanco today with seas diminishing into Sunday. A warm front will brush past to the north late Sunday, followed by a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty south winds and a building long period northwest swell will accompany this frontal passage with gusty winds and possible steep seas hazardous to small craft.

Seas are expected to peak on Monday with a heavy long-period northwest swell of 13 to 18 feet at 15 to 17 seconds. Seas are expected to diminish Tuesday into Wednesday but a thermal trough will develop at the coast with seas likely remaining steep as north north winds increase over the waters. -DW/Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM PST Monday for ORZ023>031. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023-025. Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ024-026.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . None.

15/03/03


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR20 mi74 minN 00.25 miFreezing Fog31°F30°F96%1029.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmN3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3CalmN5CalmN4
1 day agoCalmN54CalmNE3CalmNW4CalmSW3S3S3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3N3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN4NW4W6NW3CalmW5NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmN3W3CalmN3SW4NE3CalmCalmS5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sat -- 03:49 AM PST     2.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:23 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:50 AM PST     7.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:50 PM PST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:16 PM PST     5.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.14.33.52.92.83.245.16.277.36.85.84.32.71.30.40.10.61.634.35.25.7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.