Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:33 PM   Moonset 6:22 AM

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FXUS66 KMFR 261022 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 322 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024

DISCUSSION
Waves of showers are passing through the area this morning as an upper level trough moves onshore. Rainfall amounts have been heaviest along the coast and in the Cascades, with around 0.75"- 1.25" over the last 24 hours. Elsewhere, amounts over the last 24 hours range from a few hundreths to a tenth for areas east of the Cascades and 0.10"-0.50" for areas west of the Cascades. Snow levels are hovering around 5000 ft this morning, so winter weather impacts are limited to the higher passes. Amounts of 8 to 10 inches are forecast with the highest amounts expected for the back county and highest peaks. As these waves of showers pass through the region, there will likely (70%-90%) be periods of 1"/hr snowfall rates in the Cascades through this morning. Though recent warm temperatures will significantly limit snow accumulations on roadways, those traveling around Crater Lake, Diamond Lake, and Willamette Pass should be prepared for reduced visibilities. The highest peaks of the Siskiyou Mountains, Warner Mountains, and Siskiyou County can also expect to receive measureable accumulations. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect above 5000 ft through this afternoon, and details can be found at WSWMFR.

Showers will continue into the afternoon hours today as the upper level trough moves overhead, and this combined with some daytime heating will lead to thunderstorm chances (20%-30%) across the southern and eastern areas (eastern Siskiyou/southern Lake/Modoc Counties). In addition, expect some gusty winds across the region this afternoon, especially near any of the heavier showers/thunderstorms.

Shower activity diminishes this evening and overnight. Then after a short break Saturday morning, another shortwave arrives Saturday afternoon. This will be a quick moving and weakening wave, but it will be the leading edge of sustained zonal onshore flow that will persist into early next week. This pattern is known to produce ongoing light showers, although most precipitation will remain confined along and west of the Cascades with the best chances for accumulating precipitation after Saturday night expected along the coast, Cascades and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide. Ensembles are in good agreement with regards to precipitation chances outside of these locations and chances really drop off for these areas after Saturday night.

Snow levels are expected to remain fairly consistent, throughout this time, hovering roughly around 5000 feet. Given the light snowfall amounts in the forecast, we aren't expecting any wintry weather impacts during this time. Additionally, given the zonal flow expected into early next week, we don't expect any sharp warm ups or cool downs during this time. Continued cloud cover will result in some cooler than normal daytime highs (upper 50s/low 60s West Side, low to mid 50s East Side) and near normal overnight lows with no freeze concerns for areas west of the Cascades.

Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, temperatures trend a bit warmer with a few upper level disturbances expected to pass nearby and bring additional chances of precipitation. More details can be found in the previous shift's long term discussion below:

Heading into Tuesday, 500 mb heights appear more zonal over Oregon as another short wave swings through the state of Washington. This appears to be the driest day as the chance of rain is generally below 15% everywhere except along the coast near Cape Blanco and Coos Bay. Given this drier trend, temperatures should push into the 70's in Medford, Grants pass and the upper 60's in other locations across our forecast area.

Eventually, an upper level low out of the Gulf of Alaska will likely push into the Pacific Northwest around Wednesday. This should result in another round of wetting rain, although the NBM probability of precipitation of 0.01 inches over 12 hours only show a 50 to 60% chance of rain. Therefore, some of the ensemble members might show different times of arrival of the front on Wednesday night and Thursday morning or it is drier than what some of the deterministic data show.

The other thing that this low will bring is some cooler more unstable air behind the cold front. This can be seen in the snow levels falling down to 4000 feet behind the front, which should eventually pass through sometime around Thursday. Even with plenty of solar heating, high temperatures are still anticipated to push into the lower 60's in many cities east and west of the Cascades.

Overall, the extended forecast looks active yet with little to no impacts. We're lacking significant moisture or forcing to bring impactful rain or snow to the region. One may say it is very Spring like for our forecast area.

-Smith

AVIATION
(25/06Z TAFs) MVFR ceilings are expected to continue along the coast through this TAF cycle and likely areas of IFR ceilings overnight, too. For all other areas, VFR will be the more dominate category with areas of MVFR in heavier showers. Cloud cover continue to cause mountain obstructions across the region, too. Friday afternoon, winds at least east of the Cascades are expected to become gusty. -Miles/CC

MARINE
Updated 200 AM Friday, April 26, 2024...Moderate west to northwest winds and steep fresh seas will continue today. While wind speeds gradually diminish late this afternoon and evening, steep west swell will result in seas hazardous to small craft. These conditions are likely to last into late tonight. Another front will move into the waters late Saturday morning, then onshore later Saturday afternoon. Seas may become chaotic once again during this time and winds could approach small craft north of Cape Blanco.
Additionally, we are going into a rainy pattern with chances over the waters nearly every day in the forecast through middle next week. -Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon above 5000 feet for ORZ027-028.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Brookings
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Fri -- 01:03 AM PDT     6.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:11 AM PDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:50 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:44 PM PDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

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