Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Butte Falls, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:09PM Sunday January 19, 2020 3:50 PM PST (23:50 UTC) Moonrise 2:41AMMoonset 1:01PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butte Falls, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 192246 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 246 PM PST Sun Jan 19 2020

DISCUSSION. Low clouds and fog have cleared from the majority of the forecast area this afternoon, and temperatures have risen close to the values forecast for most West Side valleys. Afternoon readings should peak at near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Warmest conditions right now are in the Umpqua Valley, the southern end of the Rogue Valley (where downsloping winds are helping to mix and warm), and at the coast near North Bend. One area that is stubbornly refusing to clear out of the low clouds is the Illinois Valley.

Satellite imagery is showing a disorganized frontal boundary off the coast. This feature will weaken further as the main energy pushes north of the area and the trailing boundary brushes the area Monday. No precipitation is expected with this.

A more significant front will approach Monday night and will bring increasing southerly winds to much of the area. Gusts to 60 mph are likely at the headlands of the coast while most areas at the coast will experience gusts to 50 mph Monday night or early Tuesday morning. We've issued a Wind Advisory (I-5 near Weed) for the Shasta Valley and portions of the East Side (Hwy 31 near Summer Lake) from Monday night into Tuesday. 700mb (10,000ft) winds with this front aren't expected to be in the top 10 percent for this time of year (peaking at 50-60 kt), so it's not a huge event. However, the consensus of model guidance supports an Advisory.

Overall precipitation with the front is also not expected to be major for mid-winter, but there are some areas of concern. The front will move through rather quickly, but precipitation rates along it will be moderate to heavy. The health southerly flow will enhance precipitation over portions of Northern California, including the Mt Shasta City area in particular. This could bring a period of heavy snow to areas above 4000 feet, including Highway 89 at Snowmans Summit. We've issued a Winter Storm Watch for Monday night into Tuesday for Western Siskiyou County and the Mt Shasta City area above 4000 feet. We're interesting in viewing some high- resolution data for snow levels over the next 1-2 shifts before issuing a Warning. We'll also be considering issuing Winter Weather Advisory for the Cascades and Siskiyous and Highway 97 near Chemult pending the next few model runs.

Snow levels lower to 3500 feet Tuesday afternoon behind the front, and rain/snow showers can be expected.

Long term discussion . Wed 22 Jan through Sun 26 Jan 2020.

An upper ridge building in from the southwest will force a warm front north through the area Wednesday. This will bring light precipitation to most of the Medford CWA Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snow levels will start off in the 3000-4000 foot range rising to 500-6500 feet.

The ridge will break to the east of the area Wednesday night, and a short wave ejecting from the upstream trough will push a cold front onshore Thursday. This front will weaken and stall over the area Thursday night as the upper level support moves east.

Yet another ejecting short wave will push another front onshore Friday night. This one will be stronger as the short wave will be stronger and the long wave trough will be closer to the coast.

The EC and GFS model solutions diverge from Saturday on. They both depict an offshore trough, but they differ on the strength and timing of ejecting short waves, and thus differ on the timing and strength of incoming fronts. There is high confidence that the overall pattern will be stormy, but confidence is low on the timing and strength of individual fronts. Snow levels will vary between 4500 and 7000 feet, remaining above the major passes.

AVIATION. For the 19/18Z TAF Cycle . Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog over some of the valleys, including KMFR and KLMT, will clear to VFR early Sunday afternoon. VFR conditions will then prevail through Sunday evening, then the IFR conditions will return to the same areas late Sunday night through Monday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR again by Monday afternoon, but areas of MVFR cigs will develop over the coastal waters late Monday afternoon, moving onshore Monday evening with higher terrain becoming obscured.

MARINE. Updated 230 PM PST Sunday 19 Jan 2020 . A weak front will move in tonight, starting a trend of increasing south winds and building seas. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Monday with south winds of 15 to 25 kt and gusts to 30 kt and seas of 10 to 15 feet at 15 seconds. A stronger front will likely produce gales and very steep wind-driven seas Monday night followed by very high and very steep long-period swell through Tuesday evening. Seas will likely peak near 20 feet at 15 seconds during this time frame with bar conditions becoming very hazardous. The pattern will remain active for the rest of the week with several weaker fronts moving through. These fronts will likely generate small craft advisory winds and seas. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for ORZ030-031.

CA . Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon above 4000 feet in the for CAZ080. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon above 4000 feet in the for CAZ082. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ081.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR20 mi57 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds45°F39°F80%1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N3W3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmN4N6NE3N4CalmE3E4CalmCalmE5NE3CalmNE3E3NE5SW5NE3NE6CalmN4N5N5NW3
2 days agoCalmN3NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N3CalmN3CalmNE4

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sun -- 12:06 AM PST     2.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 AM PST     7.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:09 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:55 PM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM PST     5.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.83.54.65.86.87.57.67.164.531.70.90.60.91.82.83.94.75.154.64

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.