Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Butte Falls, OR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday August 24, 2019 5:09 PM PDT (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 202 Pm Pdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A weak thermal trough along the coast will bring gusty winds and steep seas to the waters south of cape blanco today and strengthen Sunday afternoon through Monday night resulting in strong north winds, which may approach gale force in the southern waters. This will result in a mix of steep to very steep seas. Gusty winds and very steep seas will linger into early Tuesday, then are expected to gradually lower late Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butte Falls, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 242154
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
254 pm pdt Sat aug 24 2019

Discussion Two words come to mind for the forecast for this
week. The first word is hot. A strong ridge develops over the
pacific northwest on Monday and remains over the area on Tuesday.

The accompaning strong thermal trof develops along the coast on
Monday and moves to the i-5 corridor on Tuesday. It then moves
just east of the cascades on Wednesday. What this means is
temperatures inland will warm significantly on Monday around 5 to
10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will warm further and peak
on Tuesday west of the cascades. Expect high 90s to 105 all along
the i-5 corridor. Roseburg will be flirting with record high
temperature territory. Temperatures should cool a few degrees west
of the cascades on Wednesday. However, temperatures east of the
cascades should peak on Wednesday with 1 to 2 degrees warmer
compared to Tuesday.

The second word is thunderstorms. Model data is showing a low
pressure trof moving toward the southern oregon coastline from the
southwest on Wednesday. With the very warm airmass over the area
and the increasing instability this low will introduce gives us
more confidence in the chance for thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. This is a pattern conducive to seeing
storms west of the cascades so we have introduced a slight chance
for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Depending on how this
evolves, thunderstorms could continue overnight into Thursday
morning. However, have left chances for them out for now.

Temperatures Thursday will be cooler and the short heat wave will
be over but it will still be unstable with thunderstorm chances
remaining. East of the cascades will have the best chance for
storms on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday looks to be near normal temperature-wise when
a drier southwest flow takes over as a pacific low pressure
system moves toward northwest washington. -sargeant

Aviation For the 24 18z tafs... Skies will remain clear through
this afternoon. Marine stratus will develop once again along the
coast and just offshore with MVFR ceilings to start at north bend,
lowering to ifr with local lifr ceilings late this evening and
tonight. Confidence on the timing of when lower conditions develop
are low to moderate, so watch for updates.

Onshore flow is expected to increase enough for the marine stratus
to push and or develop further inland tonight including the coquille
basin and portions of the umpqua basin. For now kept roseburg clear
through the TAF period, but there is a chance the marine stratus
could sneak in towards daybreak Sunday. Even if it does ceilings
should remainVFR.

ElsewhereVFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
gusty winds late in the afternoon and evening hours at roseburg,
medford and klamath falls. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 205 pm pdt Saturday, 24 august 2019...

a weak thermal trough will persist along the coast today into
tonight. This will bring some gusty north winds to the southern
waters, with small craft advisory winds and seas expected south of
port orford.

The thermal trough will strengthen Sunday afternoon through Monday.

This will result in strong, gusty north winds and a mix of steep to
very steep seas across the waters. Gusty winds reaching gale force
are expected for the waters south of CAPE blanco in the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday. Pockets of isolated gale force
winds could exist Monday as well. If these conditions exist Monday
evening they will be between 10 and 20 nm and south of gold beach.

Anticipate winds and seas to gradually lower on Tuesday. However, a
mix of steep to very steep seas may continue to affect the waters
Tuesday morning, with steep seas lingering across the waters Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Expect conditions hazardous to small crafts
to persist through this time.

-miles

Fire weather Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 24 august 2019... It will
remain dry through at least next Tuesday. There are two main short
term concerns. First will be gusty winds east of the cascades this
afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening with
low relative humidity. Although on Sunday gusty winds should be
confined to mainly fire zone 625. Second is breezy winds with
moderate to locally poor overnight recoveries near and at the ridges
in fire zones 618, 619 and 620 Sunday night and Monday night. In
neither case are we expecting any critical fire concerns in these
areas, therefore we'll just highlight it in the fire weather
forecast.

The main driving force for gusty winds east of the cascades this
afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening will be
stronger winds aloft (at 700 and 600mb) along with an increasing
pressure gradient and it will bring speeds stronger than normal at
12 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Temperatures and min relative humidities this weekend will be
similar to Friday, although temperatures will end up a degree or
two lower on average for interior locations.

The hottest temperatures will be on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday
with triple digit readings likely for interior westside valleys
Tuesday and Wednesday. The wildcard for Wednesday will be cloud
cover which could result in afternoon temperatures a few degrees
lower than what's in the forecast.

The models are coming into better agreement next Wednesday and
Thursday. The general consensus shows there is the potential for
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. The ECMWF and GFS show a
shortwave moving up from the south and tapping into some moisture
from tropical storm ivo during MAX heating Wednesday afternoon. So
the ingredients (trigger, moisture and instability) are present to at
least introduce a slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon
and evening. Also the track of the shortwave is one that is
favorable for thunderstorms west of the cascades.

Another weak shortwave will be on the heals of first one Thursday,
but the track is further north and and the best chance for
thunderstorms will be north of our area. Therefore have trimmed back
the slight chance of thunderstorms and kept them confined to northern
klamath and lake county. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Tuesday
for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 am Sunday to 5 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz356.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 11 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm Sunday to 5 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz376.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 am pdt Tuesday for pzz376.

Gale warning from 5 pm to 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 am Sunday to 11 am pdt Tuesday
for pzz376.

Krs krs map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR20 mi2.3 hrsWSW 310.00 miFair91°F39°F16%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFR

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5W10N12--------CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N3CalmW33CalmN3W3NW4
1 day agoS3W5------N5--Calm--W3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm45NW4
2 days agoN6N4W3--CalmCalm--NW3Calm--N3NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N45SW3W7CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sat -- 12:29 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:00 AM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:28 AM PDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:15 PM PDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:38 PM PDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.21.522.83.64.24.54.54.23.83.43.23.33.74.45.15.96.36.465.24.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.