Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:59PM Monday August 26, 2019 2:52 AM PDT (09:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:58AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 222 Am Pdt Mon Aug 26 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A strong thermal trough persists along the coast and will bring continued strong gusty north winds and steep to very steep, hazardous seas through this evening. Strongest winds and steepest seas are expected from near bandon southward. The thermal trough weakens Tuesday but steep seas will affect the waters through Tuesday evening. Seas will diminish Tuesday night. Winds will shift to south Tuesday night into Wednesday with areas of fog and low stratus expected to develop across much of the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 260300
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
800 pm pdt Sun aug 25 2019

Discussion 26 00z NAM in.

Clear skies prevail across the medford CWA this evening. A strong
thermal trough is just off the coast, inducing dry easterly flow
across the west side ridges.

An upper level ridge will build over the area through Tuesday, and
this will bring continued dry weather with a warming trend. The
thermal trough will move inland Tuesday, and this will lead to
the hottest weather of this summer so far. Tuesday highs will
reach 100f over most of the west side valley locations and may top
110f in the valleys of western siskiyou county. The forecast high
of 105f in medford on Tuesday will threaten the record high for
the day... 106f from 1972. The combined effects of very hot weather
Tuesday and Wednesday and much above normal low temperatures
Tuesday night will increase the risk for heat related illnesses,
especially among vulnerable populations. An excessive heat watch
remains in effect for Tuesday through Wednesday for most west side
valleys inland from the coast.

The easterly low level flow regime will be strong enough to keep
any marine stratus offshore until the thermal trough moves inland
Tuesday. Temperatures at the coast will also be well above normal,
but not excessively so. Winds at the ridges along with poor to
moderate recoveries will be significant, peaking tonight, but they
won't be low enough to meet red flag warning criteria.

Things will get interesting Wednesday as several factors combine
to form an environment conducive for thunderstorms. First of all,
inland highs Wednesday will be 3-4 degrees cooler than the Tuesday
highs, but still very hot. Secondly, mid-level moisture from the
remains of tropical storm ivo will overspread the area. This will
bring precipitable water values as high as 1.25 inch by later
Wednesday. Thirdly, an upper level short wave will move into the
area right around the time of maximum surface heating. This is an
ideal scenario for thunderstorm development this time of year.

At this time, the forecast calls for isolated thunderstorms in
the lower elevations (including the west side and possibly all the
way to the coast) and scattered storms in the mountains on
Wednesday. Model soundings are showing very dry air at low levels
prior to thunderstorm development, so storms could start out dry.

Breezy winds are also possible Wednesday afternoon. This presents
a significant increase in fire potential, the details of which
can be found in the fire weather discussion below. It's a little
too early to say exactly where storms will form or their ultimate
nature, but with so much moisture and strong wind shear, it does
at least raise the concern for severe storms.

The thunderstorm threat may continue into Thursday, but the
greater threat will likely be north and east of the medford cwa
by then. Gusty winds are likely again Thursday afternoon and
evening.

A ridge will rebuild over the area around this time and this will
bring a return of hot and dry conditions, though likely not as hot
as Tuesday and Wednesday will be. This weather regime will likely
persist through labor day weekend.

Aviation For the 26 00z tafs...VFR conditions will continue for
all TAF sites for the next 24 hours with gusty winds late in the
afternoon and evening hours. Offshore flow will keep marine stratus
from developing along the coast and just offshore tonight. Could not
rule out patchy low clouds late tonight at north bend, but
confidence is not high enough to include it in the taf. -
petrucelli sven

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Sunday, 25 august 2019... A strong
thermal trough pattern along the coast will continue through Monday.

A mix of gales and very steep warning level seas is expected from
cape blanco southward beyond 3nm from shore. Closer to shore and
north of CAPE blanco, small craft advisory conditions are expected.

Winds will diminish slightly below gales tonight, but very steep,
wind-driven warning level seas will continue through Monday night
south of CAPE arago beyond 3 nm from shore. Winds decrease further
on Tuesday but steep, fresh swell will maintain small craft advisory
conditions at most locations beyond 3 nm from shore.

Models indicate that the thermal trough pattern continues to weaken
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds eventually switching to
southerly on Wednesday. Conditions should below small craft advisory
levels during this time. Keene sven

Fire weather Updated 800 pm pdt Sunday 25 august 2019... It
will remain dry through at least Tuesday. The main concern is the
potential for thunderstorms from late Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening.

The ECMWF and GFS show a shortwave moving up from the south
and tapping into moisture from tropical storm ivo during max
heating Wednesday afternoon. All the necessary ingredients
(trigger, moisture and instability) are present for at least a
slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The best case scenario will be isolated thunderstorms. Worst case
will be scattered thunderstorms. This will follow a few days of
hot weather (Monday-Wednesday) and low relative humidity. Some of
the soundings suggest thunderstorms could produce little or no
rainfall, but this could change. The track of the shortwave favors
thunderstorms west of the cascades and close to the coast. Right
now, there is no mention of thunderstorms near and at the coast in
forecast, but this may change as well. The models show stronger
winds aloft, so the other concern will be gusty and erratic winds
near thunderstorms.

A fire weather watch remains in effect for this event. Details
can be found at rfwmfr.

Before that, there are two short term concerns. The first is
gusty winds east of the cascades this evening with low relative
humidity. The second is breezy winds with moderate to locally
poor overnight recoveries near and at the ridges in fire weather
zones 618, 619 and 620 tonight and Monday night. Red flag warning
conditions are not expected though.

Another weak shortwave will move in Thursday, but the track is
further north and east with the best chance for thunderstorms east
of the cascades in oregon, most likely out of the medford cwa.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Fire weather watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz616-617-619>625.

Excessive heat watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for orz023-024-026.

Ca... Fire weather watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for caz280-281-284.

Excessive heat watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for caz080-081-083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt
Tuesday for pzz350-356-370.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt this evening for pzz356-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 am pdt
Tuesday for pzz350.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Tuesday for pzz376.

15 15 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi53 min N 2.9 G 4.1 62°F1014.5 hPa (-0.7)
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi53 min NW 14 G 19 58°F 47°F1017.8 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi2.9 hrsNNE 1010.00 miFair61°F46°F58%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N8N8N3CalmCalmE3E4Calm4N33--466N8
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1 day agoN8N9
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N9SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmN6CalmCalm3CalmNW4--6N5N7N9NW9NW4N8NW8NW6
2 days agoE3E3CalmCalmN4N8--3--Calm4Calm333NW6NW8N9N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 AM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM PDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:40 PM PDT     3.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:43 PM PDT     7.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.50.60.20.41.12.23.34.34.95.14.84.33.83.43.33.74.45.46.36.976.65.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:20 AM PDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:36 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM PDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:52 PM PDT     3.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.60.70.20.30.91.9344.64.84.64.23.63.233.344.95.86.56.76.35.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.