Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:11PM Sunday January 19, 2020 3:07 AM PST (11:07 UTC) Moonrise 2:44AMMoonset 1:05PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 202 Am Pst Sun Jan 19 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
Today..Northern portion, S wind 5 to 15 kt. Brookings southward, E wind 5 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft early in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 12 ft at 14 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kt northern portion and se 5 to 15 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..S wind 10 to 20 kt except S 5 to 10 kt within 5 nm of brookings southward. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of rain.
Mon night..S wind 30 kt...rising to gales 35 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 10 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft...building to 11 to 14 ft after midnight. W swell 11 to 12 ft...subsiding to 9 ft after midnight. Rain.
Tue..Northern portion, S wind 20 to 25 kt...veering to sw in the afternoon. Brookings southward, S wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 9 to 11 ft... Subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell 8 to 9 ft... Building to 15 to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain and slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. W swell 17 to 20 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft... Building to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 15 ft...subsiding to 9 ft.
Thu..S wind 15 kt. Wind waves 5 ft...subsiding to 3 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
PZZ300 202 Am Pst Sun Jan 19 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..SEas will gradually diminish through tonight, but will remain high and steep. A front late Sunday night will start a new trend of building seas with building long period west swell. A stronger front late Monday will likely produce gales with very high and very steep long-period seas continuing through Tuesday night. The pattern will remain active for the rest of the week, though with fronts more likely to be of advisory strength.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 190519 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 919 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020

DISCUSSION. 8:30 PM radar is showing a few light returns across the Illinois Valley as well as near the Curry County Coast. It does not appear as if any precipitation is reaching the ground at this point. Traffic cameras at Cave Junction are showing some fog. The front has already moved through the area, and a brief period of high pressure will build in tonight and tomorrow before the next front moves through.

After taking a look at satellite imagery, it appears as if some cloud cover will keep things warm enough to preclude any freeze warnings for the coast. The current forecast looks on track, and no changes are needed at this time.

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Saturday 18 Jan 2020 . Gales have diminished behind a cold front, but chaotic steep to very steep seas are at a peak this evening.

Seas diminish late tonight into Sunday night but remain high and steep with weak high pressure briefly moving into the waters. A front late Sunday night will start a new trend of building seas with a long period west swell. The long period swell component will likely reach a peak around 10 ft at 17 seconds on Monday afternoon. But, seas will continue to build as the long period west swell combines with a shorter period west swell and building south wind waves.

A stronger front late Monday afternoon through Monday night is likely to produce gales with very high and very steep seas building through Tuesday afternoon then persisting through Tuesday night. Peak seas are forecast at around 23 ft at 15 seconds. Bar conditions are likely to become hazardous during this time.

The pattern will remain active Wednesday through Saturday, though with fronts more likely to be of advisory strength with high and steep seas. -Sven/DW

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 415 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020/

UPDATE . Updated the aviation and marine sections.

AVIATION . For the 19/00Z TAF Cycle . The remnants of a front will dissipate early this evening with light rain and a mix of IFR and MVFR lingering at the coast and into Douglas and Josephine Counties, including the vicinities of KOTH and KRBG. Otherwise, conditions are mainly VFR in valleys with obscuration of the higher terrain. Later tonight, clearing is expected to enable areas of LIFR/IFR west side valley low clouds and fog to develop (including at KRBG and KMFR). VFR is expected across the area by Sunday afternoon. -DW

MARINE . Updated 400 PM PST Saturday 18 Jan 2020 . Gales have diminished, but seas remain chaotic and steep to very steep behind a cold front. Seas will reach a peak early this evening with a Hazardous Seas Warning in place for all except the far outer waters.

Seas on Sunday diminish but remain high and steep with weak high pressure briefly moving into the waters. A front late Sunday night will start a new trend of building seas with a long period west swell. The long period swell component will likely reach a peak around 10 ft at 17 seconds on Monday afternoon. But, seas will continue to build as the long period west swell combines with a shorter period west swell and building south wind waves.

A stronger front late Monday afternoon through Monday night may produce gales with very high and very steep seas building through Tuesday afternoon then persisting through Tuesday night. Peak seas are forecast at around 23 ft at 15 seconds. bar conditions are likely to become hazardous during this time.

The pattern will remain active Wednesday through Saturday, though with fronts more likely to be of advisory strength with high and steep seas. -Sven

PREV DISCUSSION . /Issued 252 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020/

DISCUSSION . Dry weather is expected the rest of the afternoon for most locations. Could not rule a couple of light showers along the coast into this evening, but nothing measurable. Gusty winds are being observed along the coast south of Cape Blanco and will remain windy into this evening, but will remain below warning levels.

Upper ridging builds into the area this evening, then the ridge axis shifts to the east Sunday as another upper trough approaches from the eastern Pacific, but we'll remain dry through Sunday evening with the next front staying offshore. If there's enough clearing, low clouds and fog will develop for most, if not all the westside valleys late tonight and last into Sunday morning. If the fog and low clouds develop and linger into Sunday morning, then afternoon temperatures could end up lower than what's in the forecast. Later shifts will need to take another look at this.

The next front is expected to move into the area Monday, but it will be in the magnitude as the one that moved in today. In fact, the models are in better agreement the front will actually dissipate as it moves into the area Monday. Surface pressure gradients are expected increase Monday afternoon and peak out between 6.5 mb between Medford and Redding, so we could see gusty winds in the Shasta Valley near Weed late Monday afternoon and night. Meanwhile winds will increase along the coast, but were not expecting high winds at this time.

There's fairly good agreement a stronger front will reach the coast Monday night, then moving inland Tuesday morning. Precipitation will be more significant with the bullseye expected to be along the coast, coastal mountains and Cascades. Snow levels Monday night are expected to start out around 5000 feet, thus only the higher passes around Diamond Lake and Crater Lake should be affected. However they will come down to around 4000 feet early Tuesday morning which would put Siskiyou Summit at risk for accumulating snow on roads before daybreak Tuesday.

Post frontal showers are likely behind the front Tuesday as an upper trough moves overhead with snow levels between 3500 and 4000 feet. Showers should gradually decrease Tuesday night as the upper trough exits and weak upper ridging builds in. -Petrucelli

Long Term . Wednesday through Saturday Night . The active pattern that we've been in for some time will continue through next week. Models are in general agreement with a weak ridge building in behind the exiting system, with the GFS being slightly more amplified with the upper ridge than the ECMWF. With the less amplified upper ridge the ECMWF is bringing a warm front through the region, while the GFS is not. However, by Thursday models come into good agreement in bringing the next system in. Although the 700 mb winds are westerly the snow levels will be above the I-5 passes with this system showing an atmospheric river contribution. This system stalls over the region through Friday morning ahead of the next system that moves in quickly behind Friday afternoon. Timing of systems on the tail end of the extended is low with both the EC and the GFS showing a zonal flow pattern. Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi55 min 48°F 49°F1024.3 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi55 min 53°F 50°F1024.9 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 67 mi27 min SSE 3.9 G 9.7 51°F 51°F1024.6 hPa47°F

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi71 minSE 1110.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------SE15SE15
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SE15SE15SE13--S15SE13SE12SE14SE14SE16SE14SE12SE13SE11SE11SE10
1 day ago------------S9
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2 days ago------NW3------3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW3Calm----------------

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:06 AM PST     2.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:47 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 AM PST     7.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:09 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:55 PM PST     0.60 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:18 PM PST     5.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.83.54.65.86.87.57.67.164.531.70.90.60.91.82.83.94.75.154.64

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:17 AM PST     2.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM PST     7.25 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:08 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:07 PM PST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:26 PM PST     4.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.42.53.14.15.36.37.17.26.85.94.53.11.80.90.60.81.52.53.64.44.84.84.43.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.