Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:58PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 8:48 PM PDT (03:48 UTC) Moonrise 5:34PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 219 Pm Pdt Tue Sep 29 2020
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 13 seconds. Areas of smoke before dark, then patchy smoke. Haze and patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to sw early in the afternoon, then...veering to nw late in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Haze and patchy smoke through the day.
Wed night..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Haze, patchy fog and smoke.
Thu..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming W 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft...building to 6 to 7 ft and sw 2 ft in the afternoon. Haze.
Thu night..N wind 10 to 15 kt northern portion and nw 10 kt brookings southward. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 8 ft. Haze through the night.
Fri..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
Fri night..N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the evening, then...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft... Building to 4 to 5 ft. W swell 6 ft.
PZZ300 219 Pm Pdt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions are expected for the rest of the week. Marine stratus will move up from the south into the waters later this evening and tonight. Also wildfire smoke will remain over the waters. The combination of the two will bring reduced visibility. Patchy drizzle is also possible late tonight. Another elevated northwest swell is expected to move through on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 292120 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 220 PM PDT Tue Sep 29 2020

DISCUSSION. Dry weather will continue for the next 7-10 days.

The latest satellite image shows smoke from the California fires starting to creep up north towards Siksyou County. The exception is the smoke in the vicinity of the Red Salmon Complex where it's pretty extensive right now and the smoke from that fire is already moving north towards Oregon. Meanwhile haze and higher levels of smoke are already in place over the marine waters, Curry, Coos, western half of Douglas and Josephine Counties. Over time, the smoke from California will work it's way into these areas in addition to Jackson and Klamath Counties. The smoke will be elevated to start and not near the ground like it was a couple of weeks ago because the origin of the smoke if from a further distance.

With that said, it appears we could be dealing with the smoke for the next few days and possibly into next weekend. However the details on how extensive it will be beyond tomorrow is not as clear, so stay tuned for the latest updates.

Downsloping slow from the southeast has resulted in warm temperatures along the coast mainly north of Cape Blanco. For example North Bend is currently 77 degrees and our neighbors to the north (Newport) is 83 degrees. This will be the last day of warm temperatures there. This is because the offshore flow will weaken as the thermal trough shifts inland and with winds becoming south. At the same time marine stratus will move up from the south this evening and overnight tonight. So tomorrow the coast will have afternoon temperatures typical for this time of the year and this will remain the case through the end of the week.

Away from the coast, afternoon temperatures in general are expected to average 15-20 degrees above normal. However depending on the extent of the smoke, the average could end up being 10-15 degrees. Either way, it will be warm to hot for this time of the year. The one good thing is because of the longer nights and dry air mass, temperatures will drop fairly quickly shortly after dark, especially in the valleys and there will be relief in the overnight hours.

Afternoon temperatures in the forecast period are below guidance. This is because of shorter daylight hours, lower sun angle and longer nights. This does not factor in the extent of the smoke which could further lead to lower afternoon temperatures. If this were July or August and no smoke, then we would easily be in the triple digits for interior west side valleys. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 29/18Z TAFs . Over the coastal waters and along the coast . VFR conditions will prevail initially, except for areas of MVFR vsbys in smoke. Areas of IFR cigs/vsbys in low clouds and fog will creep north along the coast beginning at Brookings this evening and spreading north to KOTH tonight. Most of the coastal waters will likely be IFR by late Wednesday morning.

Over the inland areas . VFR conditions will prevail initially, but areas of MVFR vsbys in smoke will develop this evening, persisting through at least Wednesday morning.

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 29 September 2020 . Relatively calm conditions are expected for the rest of the week. However, guidance shows a long period northwest swell Thursday between 8 and 9 feet with a 14-15 second period.

Winds will become southerly, a surge of fog/stratus is expected to reach Brookings this evening and could make it's way up to North Bend tonight. This will bring low visibility conditions to the inner and outer waters along with patchy areas of drizzle. Areas of wildfire smoke may also limit visibility. -Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 PM PDT Tuesday 29 September 2020 .

Hot, dry, and somewhat unstable conditions under high pressure will continue across the region through much of the week, although there will be some slight cooling and a bit of an improvement in humidities by the weekend. Smoke will be moving into the region today and Tuesday, and this may help limit daytime highs a bit, as well as cap off some of the instability, but will also decrease visibilities and produce poorer air quality. One constant, however, will be the dryness, with low daytime humidities and moderate to poor recoveries, especially over the higher terrain and the East Side. Winds should remain light, other than some afternoon breezes, and this will preclude any critical fire weather concerns.

Models are indicating a return of the thermal trough late this weekend or early next week, producing a return of easterly winds. Indications are that the flow will be weaker this time around, but confidence is low at this time range; usually we see an increase in model wind strength as the event approaches the near term. Will be keeping an eye on this for possible headlines heading into the weekend.

There are no indication of any precipitation chances over the next week, but some guidance is indicating a possible change in the pattern in the far extended term, around 10-14 days out. -BPN

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi54 min SSE 7 G 9.9 57°F 60°F1018.1 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi54 min SSE 1 G 5.1 57°F 60°F1018.8 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 67 mi28 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 56°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi52 minN 710.00 miFair72°F39°F30%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSXT

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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N10N9NE5NE4NE6NE5NE4NE6454Calm34N53N5NW7N8NE9NE15

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM PDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM PDT     6.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:19 PM PDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:11 PM PDT     6.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.74.63.11.70.80.40.71.73.14.55.76.36.25.64.53.42.41.92.12.83.95.16.16.5

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:51 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:14 AM PDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:34 AM PDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 PM PDT     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:19 PM PDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.64.53.21.90.80.40.61.42.74.15.25.965.44.53.42.41.81.82.43.54.65.76.2

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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