Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dryden, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:56PM Sunday February 28, 2021 10:54 PM EST (03:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:38PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202102282215;;265719 Fzus51 Kbuf 281836 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 136 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-282215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 136 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Monday through Monday afternoon...
.gale watch in effect from Monday afternoon through late Monday night...
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds increasing to 35 knot gales. Snow showers in the afternoon. Waves building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Monday night..Northwest gales to 35 knots. Snow showers in the evening, then just a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 37 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dryden, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 010202 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 902 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will bring scattered snow squalls and gusty winds to the area Monday afternoon into Monday evening, followed by much colder air and lake effect snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. Quiet weather and warmer temperatures return Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. 845 pm update . Minor changes to the weather grids this evening. Lowered pops to chance of less. With warm temperatures ahead of the front now precipitation all rain. With and behind it some drying at mid levels but most of the precipitation will be snow and/or rain. Front comes through during the overnight with an increase in pops. Little accumulation of rain or snow until mid to late afternoon Monday when it gets unstable.

345 pm update . The near term is expected to be fairly active with rain showers tonight and then snow squalls and strong winds tomorrow.

For the rest of today into tonight, the steady rain across NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY tapers off. An area of low pressure south of the Hudson Bay drags a cold front through the region after midnight with another round of precipitation along the front. With temperatures above freezing with the frontal passage, the ptypes are expected to be rain showers tonight, with any residual showers mixing with snow early tomorrow morning as the cold air moves in.

Tomorrow, a robust shortwave approaches the region along with an arctic cold front. Temperatures fall through the day with NW winds increasing. Steep lapse rates and with a little bit of solar heating, some weak CAPE likely develops in the afternoon. As the shortwave moves through in the afternoon, snow squalls develop across CNY. High snowfall rates coupled with strong, gusty winds could lead to brief whiteout conditions as the squalls move through that could last up to a half hour or more and drop a quick inch of snow. Winds will still be gusty after the snow squalls move through with a wind advisory issued for parts of CNY and NE PA. Blowing snow is possible behind the snow squalls as the winds stay elevated.

Tomorrow night, lake effect snow showers continue across CNY and with continued CAA, lapse rates stay steep and deep with strong winds mixing to the surface. Even though 850 mb temperatures will be near -20C, overnight lows are mostly going to be above zero due to the constant mixing from the winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 307 pm update . Main concerns in the short term are focused on the lingering/ending lake effect snow showers Tuesday morning . cool temperatures late Tuesday and Tue night and another round of isolated/scattered rain/snow showers through the day Wednesday with warmer temperatures.

The trailing edge of cold Arctic air will be lifting out of the area Tuesday morning, with the 850mb ridge axis pushing through by the late morning. This will likely allow for a couple more hours of lingering lake effect snow which will be slowly tapering back to the north by noon. May see an additional half to 1 inch. Much of the area will still be immersed within the cold air through the day which will keep high temperatures in the 20s in NY and upper 20s to near 30 in ne PA. There should be sufficient clearing Tue night, which will likely induce strong radiational cooling and bring temperatures down into the lower teens to lower 20s.

The overall large-scale cyclonic flow will continue into Wednesday as a re-enforcing short wave drops sewd through Ontario/Quebec and eventually into the eastern Great Lakes. This wave is expected to have slightly colder air and work in tandem with the upper s/w to trigger another round of light rain/snow showers during the day Wednesday. Moisture will be limited with this feature, so not expecting a great deal of precipitation. Temperatures right near the surface will be warming into the upper 30s and mid 40s . which should allow for a mix of rain and snow.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. 307 pm update . The extended forecast will be defined by a prolonged period of cold air advection and persistent multi-banded lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. High temperatures will generally be topping out in the 20s to near 30 Thursday through Saturday with overnight lows in the teens.

An upper level low cut-off from the flow will become quasi- stationary over eastern Quebec and Newfoundland/Labrador late this week and allow for a continuous supply of cold Arctic air to filter from central Canada down into the Northeast US. There are varying degrees of cold that models are indicating dropping across the forecast area during this time, but the consensus seems to be that on Friday into Saturday the axis of coldest air swings south/se across the region.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Light rain and drizzle will be possible overnight with the most likely impacts at AVP. IFR or worse conditions are expected with the passing light rain and low ceilings. Elsewhere, plenty of low level moisture will bring IFR ceilings for at least a period overnight with BGM likely seeing the lowest conditions.

As a cold front sweeps through, Ceilings rise to MVFR at all terminals by noon tomorrow. Snow showers are possible by SYR by 18z tomorrow but confidence was too low to include in TAFs.

Also, low level wind shear is expected at all TAF sites until early Monday morning.

Outlook .

Monday evening . Restrictions possible in snow showers and scattered snow squalls, especially at the Central NY terminals.

Late Monday night . Restrictions possible at the Central NY terminals with lake effect snow showers and clouds.

Tuesday . Some ceiling restrictions possible Tuesday morning at the Central NY terminals due to lingering lake effect clouds, then becoming VFR by the afternoon.

Wednesday . Quiet weather with VFR conditions.

Thursday into Friday . Occasional lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ040- 044-047-048-072. NY . Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ018- 036-037-044>046-057-062.

SYNOPSIS . AJG/TAC NEAR TERM . AJG/TAC SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . MPK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi55 min SSE 12 G 18 40°F 1007.1 hPa (-3.9)33°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 91 mi55 min S 8.9 G 12 43°F 1006.4 hPa (-3.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 92 mi55 min 42°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY11 mi59 minSSE 19 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy38°F35°F89%1009.8 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY21 mi62 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast36°F34°F93%1011.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3E3E5SE3E3E4E6E7SE4SE7SE8SE6SE12SE11
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1 day agoS10
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S9S9SW11SW9W10
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NW16N6N6NW6N5NE3
2 days agoCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW55CalmS3CalmNW3NW6NW3E5SE7SE5SE6SE9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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