Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dryden, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 5:07PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 3:12 AM EST (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:45AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202001221015;;320131 Fzus51 Kbuf 220307 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1007 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221015- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1007 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est Wednesday...
Overnight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots . A chance of rain and snow showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow and rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow and rain likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dryden, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 220622 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 122 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the eastern seaboard will provide our region with fair weather and gradual warming through Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to approach from the Ohio Valley Friday night and redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. This coastal storm will likely track up the New England coast through Sunday. There is a potential for accumulating snow with the weekend system although rain may mix in and cut down on snowfall totals, especially in the lower elevations on Saturday. High pressure builds back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 940 PM Update . The forecast remains on track for the most part. Still a slight chance for seeing a few flurries in northern Oneida County tonight. Any lingering flurries end before daybreak, leading to a quiet day on Wednesday. Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures overnight to reflect latest trends/observations.

300 PM Update . Clouds have moved in from the Great Lakes as the low level flow shifted to the west. A few flurries are possible mostly in CNY late this afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations will be very small with the shallow moisture. As the flow shifts to the southwest late tonight and Wednesday morning clouds will exit to the northeast. Low temperatures will be a little warmer than this morning and be from 10 to 15.

Wednesday with warm air advection and more sunshine, temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 30s. This is close to MOS. The NBM has been too cold.

Wednesday night partly cloudy skies will become cloudier late. With the same dry air low temperatures again in the teens.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure will remain from off the New England coast to the Middle Atlantic coast and lead to a mild and mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s or so. Thursday night will be fair and continued mild with southerly winds in advance of the weekend storm system. Friday will see this storm approach the region from Ohio Valley. The 12z NAM and GFS has a strong southerly low- level jet with moisture advection beginning. The 12z GFS has a little QPF reaching the Finger Lakes with the NAM dry.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Main concern this time period is the evolution of the next storm system and its impacts on our forecast area. Models all show a closed upper level low moving into Indiana and Ohio Friday night and then tracking across southern PA/West Virginia and Virginia/Maryland/Delaware and NJ Saturday and then to off the New England coast by Sunday. This upper level low brings a low- level cyclone up to Ohio where is occludes and goes barotropic. The baroclinic zone shifts to the coast on Saturday and this upper level low as it moves east will eventually spin up another low-level cyclone with baroclinic development. Models continues to have track that is south and east of northeast PA and central NY meaning a higher chance for mainly snow. We still could see some boundary layer warmth Saturday during the day which could lead to mixed rain and snow especially in our valleys. By Saturday night precipitation should be all snow. We will continue with mainly chance POPs Friday night, Likely Saturday and chance to likely POPs for snow showers Sunday and flurries and scattered snow showers into Monday begin this system.

The main question is how much QPF will our forecast area get. It is way too early to begin snow amounts. There is a lot of bust potential with this storm even if its track remains similar. The issue is how quickly will the coastal low develop. If it is delayed our area will just get mainly light to moderate snow with the heaviest snow east of our area. Basically we would have an upper level low with limited moisture and a minimum between the Ohio Valley low and the coastal low. The 12z GFS scenario develops the coastal low more rapidly and hence would be a decent snowstorm for our area especially Saturday night. But in these transfer lows we could easily miss out if the coastal low doesn't take off in time. So for now we will continue to mention the possibility of a winter storm this weekend in our Hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. us weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday.

Previous Discussion: Deterministic models and ensembles continue to develop a coastal low around the Delmarva, tracking up the east coast into the weekend. Latest guidance tracks this slightly more to the south of us than in previous runs, keeping temperatures a couple degrees colder as morning lows in the 20s to low 30s Saturday peak in the 30s. With temperatures aloft falling back below freezing, this should allow for precipitation to come in mainly as snow, mixing in with rain mainly across the river valleys and lake plain during the afternoon. Snow lingers into Sunday as the surface low tracks into New England and finally towards the Canadian maritimes. Drier air starts to work back in Sunday night into Monday with a ridge building across the southern US, but with west/Northwest flow and another shortwave moving through, rain/snow showers with some lake enhancement will remain in the forecast across central NY through the early part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overnight and today . A 2-3 kft AGL stratocu continues downwind (east) of lake Ontario, resulting in MVFR CIGs for SYR and RME. SYR is on the southern edge of the BKN-OVC cloud deck so they may waver in and out of MVFR through much of the overnight. An improvement to VFR is expected once these lower clouds dissipate mid to late morning (between 12-14Z at SYR and 15-17Z at RME). Otherwise VFR expected with increasing high clouds. A light SW wind overnight will become more Sly this morning with speeds under 10 kt.

Tonight . VFR with high clouds and light/variable winds.

Outlook . Thursday through Friday night . VFR. Sly winds under 10 kt Thursday become more SEly by Friday.

Saturday through Sunday . IFR conditions with snow (possibly mixing in with rain during the day Saturday) likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JRK NEAR TERM . BJG/TAC SHORT TERM . DJN LONG TERM . DJN AVIATION . JRK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi55 min 22°F 1029 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 91 mi73 min SW 5.1 G 7 24°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 92 mi67 min 22°F 1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY11 mi17 minESE 310.00 miFair7°F3°F84%1030.4 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY21 mi20 minWSW 710.00 miFair15°F10°F80%1029.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW5N4N4CalmCalmNW4W5NW5W5W5NW5NW5CalmCalmW10W11W8W8W6W4CalmCalmE3
1 day agoNW10NW10N11NW7NW12N9NW14NW12NW9NW10NW11N8NW8NW8NW7NW8NW9NW6W7W6CalmCalm3NW12
2 days agoW12
G16
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W17W18
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N13NW14NW19
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NW9NW10NW13
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NW12NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.