Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dryden, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 220622 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 122 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the eastern seaboard will provide our region with fair weather and gradual warming through Friday. An area of low pressure is expected to approach from the Ohio Valley Friday night and redevelop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. This coastal storm will likely track up the New England coast through Sunday. There is a potential for accumulating snow with the weekend system although rain may mix in and cut down on snowfall totals, especially in the lower elevations on Saturday. High pressure builds back in by early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 940 PM Update . The forecast remains on track for the most part. Still a slight chance for seeing a few flurries in northern Oneida County tonight. Any lingering flurries end before daybreak, leading to a quiet day on Wednesday. Made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures overnight to reflect latest trends/observations.

300 PM Update . Clouds have moved in from the Great Lakes as the low level flow shifted to the west. A few flurries are possible mostly in CNY late this afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations will be very small with the shallow moisture. As the flow shifts to the southwest late tonight and Wednesday morning clouds will exit to the northeast. Low temperatures will be a little warmer than this morning and be from 10 to 15.

Wednesday with warm air advection and more sunshine, temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 30s. This is close to MOS. The NBM has been too cold.

Wednesday night partly cloudy skies will become cloudier late. With the same dry air low temperatures again in the teens.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure will remain from off the New England coast to the Middle Atlantic coast and lead to a mild and mostly sunny day with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s or so. Thursday night will be fair and continued mild with southerly winds in advance of the weekend storm system. Friday will see this storm approach the region from Ohio Valley. The 12z NAM and GFS has a strong southerly low- level jet with moisture advection beginning. The 12z GFS has a little QPF reaching the Finger Lakes with the NAM dry.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Main concern this time period is the evolution of the next storm system and its impacts on our forecast area. Models all show a closed upper level low moving into Indiana and Ohio Friday night and then tracking across southern PA/West Virginia and Virginia/Maryland/Delaware and NJ Saturday and then to off the New England coast by Sunday. This upper level low brings a low- level cyclone up to Ohio where is occludes and goes barotropic. The baroclinic zone shifts to the coast on Saturday and this upper level low as it moves east will eventually spin up another low-level cyclone with baroclinic development. Models continues to have track that is south and east of northeast PA and central NY meaning a higher chance for mainly snow. We still could see some boundary layer warmth Saturday during the day which could lead to mixed rain and snow especially in our valleys. By Saturday night precipitation should be all snow. We will continue with mainly chance POPs Friday night, Likely Saturday and chance to likely POPs for snow showers Sunday and flurries and scattered snow showers into Monday begin this system.

The main question is how much QPF will our forecast area get. It is way too early to begin snow amounts. There is a lot of bust potential with this storm even if its track remains similar. The issue is how quickly will the coastal low develop. If it is delayed our area will just get mainly light to moderate snow with the heaviest snow east of our area. Basically we would have an upper level low with limited moisture and a minimum between the Ohio Valley low and the coastal low. The 12z GFS scenario develops the coastal low more rapidly and hence would be a decent snowstorm for our area especially Saturday night. But in these transfer lows we could easily miss out if the coastal low doesn't take off in time. So for now we will continue to mention the possibility of a winter storm this weekend in our Hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook and we will edit our graphical hazardous weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday. us weather outlook to "elevated" level for Saturday.

Previous Discussion: Deterministic models and ensembles continue to develop a coastal low around the Delmarva, tracking up the east coast into the weekend. Latest guidance tracks this slightly more to the south of us than in previous runs, keeping temperatures a couple degrees colder as morning lows in the 20s to low 30s Saturday peak in the 30s. With temperatures aloft falling back below freezing, this should allow for precipitation to come in mainly as snow, mixing in with rain mainly across the river valleys and lake plain during the afternoon. Snow lingers into Sunday as the surface low tracks into New England and finally towards the Canadian maritimes. Drier air starts to work back in Sunday night into Monday with a ridge building across the southern US, but with west/Northwest flow and another shortwave moving through, rain/snow showers with some lake enhancement will remain in the forecast across central NY through the early part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Overnight and today . A 2-3 kft AGL stratocu continues downwind (east) of lake Ontario, resulting in MVFR CIGs for SYR and RME. SYR is on the southern edge of the BKN-OVC cloud deck so they may waver in and out of MVFR through much of the overnight. An improvement to VFR is expected once these lower clouds dissipate mid to late morning (between 12-14Z at SYR and 15-17Z at RME). Otherwise VFR expected with increasing high clouds. A light SW wind overnight will become more Sly this morning with speeds under 10 kt.

Tonight . VFR with high clouds and light/variable winds.

Outlook . Thursday through Friday night . VFR. Sly winds under 10 kt Thursday become more SEly by Friday.

Saturday through Sunday . IFR conditions with snow (possibly mixing in with rain during the day Saturday) likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . JRK NEAR TERM . BJG/TAC SHORT TERM . DJN LONG TERM . DJN AVIATION . JRK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	73 mi	55 min		22°F			1029 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	91 mi	73 min	SW 5.1 G 7	24°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	92 mi	67 min		22°F			1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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N11 G16

N8 G13

N7 G11

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S5 G8

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W12 G15

W11 G19

SW16 G24

W12 G19

SW10 G15

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S7 G13

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N13 G17

NE12 G15

N9 G19

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NW24 G29

W20 G29

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NW23 G29

NW20 G25

N13 G18

N12 G16

2 days ago

W27 G36

W23 G32

NW27 G57

W12 G34

NW16 G21

N16 G21

N14 G21

NW17

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NW14 G18

NW13 G17

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NW17 G22

NW18 G23

N18 G22

N15 G24

N17 G22

N16 G22

N20

N13 G20

N16 G21

N13 G18

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY	11 mi	17 min	ESE 3	10.00 mi	Fair	7°F	3°F	84%	1030.4 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY	21 mi	20 min	WSW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	15°F	10°F	80%	1029.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)

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NW8

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W12 G16

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W15 G21

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W17 G26

W20 G28

W17 G24

W13 G23

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W16 G25

NW17 G21

N13

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NW19 G27

NW16

NW10 G19

NW11 G18

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NW13 G19

NW12

NW13 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (3,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY

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