Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 061232 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 732 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

AVIATION.

Weak low pressure and the associated cold front continue sliding across Lower Michigan during the late night. VFR precedes the front with a few flurries possible toward mbS followed by MVFR ceiling shortly after the frontal passage spreading NW to SE over the region around sunrise. There is minimal potential for additional snow showers along and behind the front through the morning while MVFR ceiling persists although this will be monitored for any Lake Michigan contribution. NW wind becomes gusty toward noon reaching around 20 kts as colder air moves in and clouds linger near the MVFR/VFR borderline. A few flurries are possible during afternoon as is some breaks in cloud coverage toward evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceilings aob 5000ft late tonight, high during the morning, and then moderate mid to late afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 357 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

DISCUSSION .

Clipper system is sweeping through Michigan early this morning. Current track of the 1012 mb low is placing the heavier snow showers with the best forcing across northern lower Michigan. The southern edge of precipitation passing over the Thumb and Tri-Cities is competing with some drier low level air, which has caused precipitation to struggle so far this morning. Any lingering precipitation through this morning may see rain mixing in with light snow showers as mid level dry air pushes in and strips moisture out of the DGZ. Precipitation chances will come to an end by around 7-8 am as the surface low moves off to the east.

Northwest flow in the wake of the clipper system will carry some lake moisture into southeast Michigan into the afternoon, though the overall airmass moving in is quite dry. Forecast soundings suggest some saturation with respect to ice within the cloud layer. This may support some snow flurries with the diurnal boost and increase in low level lapse rate, but the dry sub-cloud layer will be limiting the potential for flakes to reach the surface. A surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes into tonight will help bring an end to precipitation potential and also bring a decreasing trend in clouds. Reinforcement of colder air on the east side of this surface high keeps temperatures around the mid the 30s for today with lows tonight dropping into the upper teens and low 20s. Ridging/zonal flow in the mid/upper levels helps maintain dry conditions over the weekend while the surface high pressure slides into the eastern Ohio Valley on Saturday. Temperatures remain on the cool side to start the weekend with high temperatures in the 30s before increasing low level south/southwesterly flow brings a surge of warm air advection Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will climb into the 40s on Sunday with an increase winds resulting from a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north.

Precipitation associated with a low pressure system moving across Hudson Bay/Ontario during the weekend will remain to the north, but it will draw a frontal boundary southward into the central Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. This will set the stage for the next round of precipitation as a strong southern stream jet crossing the central/southern plains leads to development of a low pressure system that will ride this frontal boundary northeastward into Michigan. Temperatures in the 40s on Monday and the track of this low will allow p-type for bulk of this event to fall as rain with a chance to see a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday as colder air begins to filter into Michigan behind a cold front.

An arctic airmass will then plunge into the Great Lakes Tuesday through mid-week bringing well below average temperatures and lake effect snow. Lead cold air advection with westerly winds will likely bring lake effect snow showers from Lake Michigan into the area Tuesday through Tuesday night. Temperatures at 850 mb will drop to around -20C across southeast Michigan by Wednesday resulting in high temperatures that day in the 20s and low temperatures Wednesday night in the lower teens. Continued cold west northwest flow across Lake Michigan will allow potential for more lake effect snow showers streaming southeast Michigan throughout Wednesday as well. Arctic airmass begins to lift out of the region late Thursday bringing a gradual warming trend back to more average temperatures into the weekend.

MARINE .

Strong northwest wind will develop and gust to near-gales again this afternoon as low pressure rapidly departs east. The northwest fetch will build waves to hazardous levels in the exposed nearshore waters of the Thumb where a small craft advisory remains in effect into tonight. Flow then veers to southwesterly as warm air floods into the Great Lakes region late Saturday into Monday, gust potential limited by the stable southerly fetch. Conditions become more unsettled for the remainder of next week as the pattern becomes more active and colder air filters into the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . NONE.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



AVIATION . BT DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	54 mi	17 min	NW 14 G 21	37°F			1017.3 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	55 mi	47 min	NW 9.9 G 16	42°F			1016.5 hPa	33°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	15 mi	21 min	NW 13 G 20	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	35°F	27°F	73%	1018.3 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	16 mi	24 min	NNW 16 G 22	8.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	38°F	28°F	68%	1018 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	23 mi	24 min	NNW 17 G 25	10.00 mi	Overcast	41°F	30°F	67%	1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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