Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Fxus63 kdtx 202327 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi issued by national weather service grand rapids mi 727 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 Aviation Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact terminal locations in southeast michigan this evening with the activity expected to end by 03z. Dry weather is expected overnight with the potential for fog development around sunrise. For dtw... Showers and thunderstorms will continue through about 0130 utc with dry weather expected for the overnight hours. Ceilings around 2500 kft agl with storms with visibilities down around 2sm in heavy rainfall. MVFR fog expected around sunrise. Westerly wind develops Wednesday afternoon with gusts near 20 kts possible. Dtw threshold probabilities... * high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet this evening, medium confidence of MVFR visibilities due to fog around sunrise. * high confidence in thunderstorms this evening. Prev discussion Issued at 337 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019 discussion... scattered showers and thunderstorms continue oriented southwest to northeast along an area of subtle isentropic ascent and where greatest moisture transport vectors have set up across the state. A couple of moving pieces to note and watch out for heading into the remainder of the afternoon and evening. To start, SPC rap guidance and latest hi-res models hold CAPE between 1500 - 2000 j kg mainly across the tri-cities area into the thumb (tied to increase moisture surge) and a secondary area of higher CAPE up to 2000 j kg building in across the southern metro area. Additionally, low-level lapse rates AOA 7c km in conjunction with supportive tei profiles and larger dew point depression spread at the surface help support the idea of strong wind gusts to 40 mph, with a possible isolated downburst to 60 mph. Hail cannot be completely ruled out as mid- level lapse rates also hold around 7c km with effective bulk shear around 25 knots. Second, an MCV complex currently located over southern lake huron and northern indiana has maintained a more east to west propagation, contrary to many cams advertising a northwest to southeast propagation. This system is also translating faster to the east relative to the 12z hi-res output. Given that the MCV complex is moving east into an area of high instability, there is a chance this system will hold together and produce showers and thunderstorms for the southern metro region centered between 20-04z. Prior to the potential arrival of the mcv, amplification of a shortwave will allow the nose of higher theta-e to fill in across the metro area between 20 - 00z, which will bring the chance to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overall the main message -- isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from flint up to the tri- cities and thumb this afternoon, with isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances expanding across the metro area during the early evening onwards. Low-level cap in place may help diminish activity vs. The competing instability in place but the approaching MCV will have to continue to be monitored as it travels east towards the cwa. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather for all of SE mi, mainly for wind gust concerns.

Pv anomaly (tied to the mcv) is projected to move east of the CWA by 06z Wednesday and will travel into new england by Wednesday afternoon, leaving SE mi under zonal flow in the mid-levels. Subsidence on the back side of the anomaly will allow for clearing of cloud cover overnight, especially for the tri-cities and thumb with more active subsidence in place. Did not include in this forecast package due to uncertainty, but given residual precipitation and moist boundary layer with the subsidence, will need to watch for fog development overnight. Upper-level closed low and developing surface low pressure system will move east across ontario Wednesday into Thursday and will allow a cold front to pull across SE mi sometime between Wednesday morning - Wednesday afternoon and will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Will carry a chance of precipitation through the passage of the front as atmosphere is relatively dry (1000-500 mb rh aob 50%) and lack of overall synoptic forcing. Warm and humid temperatures will be able to hold on through the afternoon with highs in the 80s, but relief will fill in during the evening and will lead to overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s and dp dropping into the 50s. Southern periphery of a high pressure system to fill in throughout Thursday which will start an extended period of dry weather with lower humidity and temperatures that are below the seasonal norm with highs in the 70s. Friday will be cloudy and cooler as upper level trough lingers over the region. A cold front dropping through the state in advance of canadian surface high pressure will keep clouds prevalent with northerly flow but model soundings look very dry minimizing the rain potential. Cool northerly flow continues Saturday into Sunday as the surface high, centered to our north over ontario, slides east. An amplifying mid level ridge axis will then pass over on Sunday allowing southern return flow back into the state. After a few days where highs only reach in the 70s, temps on Sunday should finally rise back into the low 80s which is normal for late august. Next shot for showers will hold off til around Monday when a strong mid level wave and associate surface low lift through the northern lakes. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the front will push temperatures into the mid 80s Monday. Marine... light southerly winds this evening will give way to northwest winds tomorrow as a cold front drops south through the central great lakes. A push of much cooler air over lake huron Wednesday evening will result in winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots, with brief slightly higher gusts possible over northern lake huron. Winds will gradually diminish on Thursday into Friday as high pressure nudges into the region from the northwest. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lake huron... None. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... None. Aviation... .Mws(grr) discussion... Am drk marine... ... .Sf you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	54 mi	41 min	N 6 G 7	71°F			1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH	55 mi	53 min	NNW 1.9 G 2.9	71°F			1013.8 hPa	68°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI	15 mi	45 min	SSE 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	70°F	66°F	88%	1013.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI	16 mi	48 min	NW 4	10.00 mi	Fair	70°F	66°F	90%	1013.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI	23 mi	48 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	73°F	69°F	87%	1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.