Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:30PM Sunday March 7, 2021 10:48 PM EST (03:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:27AMMoonset 12:23PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 351 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the afternoon and evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with rain likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202103080915;;623984 FZUS63 KDTX 072051 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 351 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.50 inches, is centered over the region but will drift south and east into tonight. A low pressure system will track east across Hudson Bay tonight into Monday while a southward extending trough, 30.10 inches, passes through the northern Great Lakes. High pressure will build back into the area for Tuesday. LCZ460-080915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 072307 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 607 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

AVIATION.

Surface ridge and very dry airmass in place will continue to support clear skies (below 20 kft) and light winds into tonight. Strong warm advection will ensue late tonight and bring in mid/upper clouds as southwest winds develop. Southwest winds will then increase on Monday morning with gusts up around 20 knots by early afternoon. While cigs will lower, they should bottom out only in the 5-10kft layer. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 353 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

DISCUSSION .

Center of surface anticyclone has become positioned this afternoon in a lake aggregate fashion over the northern Lake Huron basin. Obvious signal showing up in surface observations with a lake breeze dynamic and onshore flow for just about all of the Lakeshore. For interior sections of Lower Michigan, nil surface flow has put the brakes on deep mixing. Have tweaked the temperatures grids for the remainder of the afternoon lower a degree or two.

Deep anticyclonic gyre aloft will push eastward through portions of Indiana and the Ohio River Valley tonight with return southwesterly flow becoming firmly established for Monday. Surface warm front/warm sector is shown to push eastward across all of the area between 9- 12Z with a quasi-stationary front developing along the northern flank of the warm sector across northern Lower Peninsula. NAM solution is really hung up on this frontal boundary suggesting it will even push southward late afternoon down into the Saginaw Bay region. Suspect some questionable radiative forcing within the models is leading to some overzealous frontal behavior. The HRRR remains much warmer across the Tri Cities and does not support the same frontal behavior through much of the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with regards to cloud cover over the northern cwa which may impact insolation. High confidence that cold air advection washes southward by the early evening hours. Generally sided with the non-nam solution for high temperatures, but do feel a non- diurnal curve is likely across far northern cwa. Interesting surface trough feature predicted at 18Z should help in mechanical mixing and pushing mixing depths upwards of 6.5 to 7.0 kft agl layer. Basic mixing technique suggests 0.5C at 800mb will be good for temperatures well into the mid 60s. Settle on highs ranging from the middle 50s north (early) to the middle 60s across Metro Detroit.

Frontal boundary will settle southward becoming stalling out in vicinity of far southern Lower Michigan for Tuesday. Despite upper riding the main warm sector will become more increasingly organized with height falls across the Plains. Models very persistent on easterly trajectory to surface winds which will lead to an onshore component. Went more tempered with highs for Tuesday with cooler readings near the Lakes/Rivers. Highs are expected to range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

All out warm sector with deep southwesterly flow for Wednesday. Lead shortwave energy is expected to stream across the area which is expected to lead to extensive cloud cover. A secondary warm front is expected to lift into the area during the afternoon leading to rain shower chances. Main surface low is progged to deepen and lift northward through the western Great Lakes Wednesday night. Latest forecast data suggests main time window for precipitation across Southeast Michigan will be during the day on Thursday. Trailing cold front from low pressure passage is expected slow down over the state in time for next upper level jet exit region and deep frontogenesis response. Notable aspect of the Thursday forecast is data suggesting surface dewpoints reaching the middle 50s.

MARINE .

Quiet weather heading into tonight as high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. The high will drift eastward through the evening pulling the ridge axis through the area by tonight. This will cause the calm winds to become southerly overnight. A trough axis extending south out of a low that will across Hudson Bay, will sweep across the northern Great Lakes tonight. The gradient will tighten between this trough and current ridge causing winds to ramp up tonight into Monday. Gusts will be limited by warm air advection over the waters so expecting gust up to 25 knots. High pressure fills back in quickly behind the weak trough for Tuesday with continued southerly flow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi48 min S 2.9 G 7 29°F 1030.8 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 13 mi48 min 28°F 34°F1029.9 hPa (+0.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi48 min 27°F 1029.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi52 minS 412.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F23°F95%1031.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi55 minS 310.00 miFair29°F21°F72%1031.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N7N4N5CalmN6NW3NW5CalmNW7N8356SE6SE7SE6E6E6SE4SE7SE5S5S4
1 day agoNW10NW13--NW10NW8NW8NW7NW7NW7NW9NW11NW14N12NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmW4NW7NW6NW5NW6NW6NW7NW8NW9NW14NW13
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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