Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 072307 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 607 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

AVIATION.

Surface ridge and very dry airmass in place will continue to support clear skies (below 20 kft) and light winds into tonight. Strong warm advection will ensue late tonight and bring in mid/upper clouds as southwest winds develop. Southwest winds will then increase on Monday morning with gusts up around 20 knots by early afternoon. While cigs will lower, they should bottom out only in the 5-10kft layer. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 353 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

DISCUSSION .

Center of surface anticyclone has become positioned this afternoon in a lake aggregate fashion over the northern Lake Huron basin. Obvious signal showing up in surface observations with a lake breeze dynamic and onshore flow for just about all of the Lakeshore. For interior sections of Lower Michigan, nil surface flow has put the brakes on deep mixing. Have tweaked the temperatures grids for the remainder of the afternoon lower a degree or two.

Deep anticyclonic gyre aloft will push eastward through portions of Indiana and the Ohio River Valley tonight with return southwesterly flow becoming firmly established for Monday. Surface warm front/warm sector is shown to push eastward across all of the area between 9- 12Z with a quasi-stationary front developing along the northern flank of the warm sector across northern Lower Peninsula. NAM solution is really hung up on this frontal boundary suggesting it will even push southward late afternoon down into the Saginaw Bay region. Suspect some questionable radiative forcing within the models is leading to some overzealous frontal behavior. The HRRR remains much warmer across the Tri Cities and does not support the same frontal behavior through much of the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with regards to cloud cover over the northern cwa which may impact insolation. High confidence that cold air advection washes southward by the early evening hours. Generally sided with the non-nam solution for high temperatures, but do feel a non- diurnal curve is likely across far northern cwa. Interesting surface trough feature predicted at 18Z should help in mechanical mixing and pushing mixing depths upwards of 6.5 to 7.0 kft agl layer. Basic mixing technique suggests 0.5C at 800mb will be good for temperatures well into the mid 60s. Settle on highs ranging from the middle 50s north (early) to the middle 60s across Metro Detroit.

Frontal boundary will settle southward becoming stalling out in vicinity of far southern Lower Michigan for Tuesday. Despite upper riding the main warm sector will become more increasingly organized with height falls across the Plains. Models very persistent on easterly trajectory to surface winds which will lead to an onshore component. Went more tempered with highs for Tuesday with cooler readings near the Lakes/Rivers. Highs are expected to range in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

All out warm sector with deep southwesterly flow for Wednesday. Lead shortwave energy is expected to stream across the area which is expected to lead to extensive cloud cover. A secondary warm front is expected to lift into the area during the afternoon leading to rain shower chances. Main surface low is progged to deepen and lift northward through the western Great Lakes Wednesday night. Latest forecast data suggests main time window for precipitation across Southeast Michigan will be during the day on Thursday. Trailing cold front from low pressure passage is expected slow down over the state in time for next upper level jet exit region and deep frontogenesis response. Notable aspect of the Thursday forecast is data suggesting surface dewpoints reaching the middle 50s.

MARINE .

Quiet weather heading into tonight as high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. The high will drift eastward through the evening pulling the ridge axis through the area by tonight. This will cause the calm winds to become southerly overnight. A trough axis extending south out of a low that will across Hudson Bay, will sweep across the northern Great Lakes tonight. The gradient will tighten between this trough and current ridge causing winds to ramp up tonight into Monday. Gusts will be limited by warm air advection over the waters so expecting gust up to 25 knots. High pressure fills back in quickly behind the weak trough for Tuesday with continued southerly flow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	11 mi	48 min	S 2.9 G 7	29°F			1030.8 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4	13 mi	48 min		28°F	34°F		1029.9 hPa (+0.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	38 mi	48 min		27°F			1029.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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E11

E4

SE4

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NW5

N15

N13

NW7

NW6 G9

NW7

NW7 G11

N7

NW6 G9

N6

N11

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SE3

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1 day ago

NW7 G15

NW5 G12

N15 G21

N9 G13

NW10 G18

NW11 G17

NW8 G14

NW5 G14

NW11 G17

NW8 G14

NW10 G16

N11 G15

NW13 G18

NW9 G16

N6 G17

N9 G13

NW8 G13

N9 G13

NE12

N6 G10

E7

SE4

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S4

2 days ago

NW5 G10

NW4

NW6

NW7

NW6 G9

NW7 G10

NW7

NW8 G12

NW10 G13

NW8 G13

NW9 G15

NW10 G14

NW11 G20

NW12 G20

NW14 G20

NW9 G17

NW12 G21

NW14 G20

NW10 G22

NW13 G22

NW11 G21

NW10 G18

NW9 G16

NW10 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	14 mi	52 min	S 4	12.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	24°F	23°F	95%	1031.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	19 mi	55 min	S 3	10.00 mi	Fair	29°F	21°F	72%	1031.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NW3

N7

N4

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Calm

N6

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Calm

NW7

N8

3

5

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SE6

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1 day ago

NW10

NW13

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NW10

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NW11

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NW10 G18

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NW11 G15

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2 days ago

Calm

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NW7

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NW14

NW13 G22

NW9 G17

NW12 G18

W9 G16

W9

NW11

NW13 G19

NW11

W9

NW16 G19

NW11

NW11

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