Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 7:56 AM EDT (11:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 11:26AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 949 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning...then partly cloudy early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the late morning and early afternoon becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201908210815;;959747 FZUS63 KDTX 210149 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 949 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A cold front, averaging 29.80 inches, will drop into the northern Great Lakes from Canada tonight. This front will move across the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday. A broad Canadian high pressure, averaging 30.20 inches, will then expand across the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday. LCZ460-210815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211036
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
636 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Aviation
Low stratus and fog has developed overnight, generally north of ptk.

Clearing overnight interacted with ample low level moisture to
produce this. There has been a fair amount of variability to the low
stratus fog, which will only persist with the onset of daytime
heating. The daytime mixing will allow this moisture to develop a
sct to bkn CU field by afternoon. A cold front will push into the
region from the north late this afternoon and early evening. Strong
mid level capping suggests a very low probability (less than 20 pct)
of convection at the terminals. The higher tsra chances will be
across the thumb region and points east where mid level capping will
be weaker.

For dtw... The subtle downslope into metro detroit and later clearing
of the mid cloud deck as thus far inhibited anything other some some
brief MVFR type vsby in fog; which will erode shortly after taf
issuance. Thunderstorm chances late this afternoon evening are
expected to be confined to the far northeastern portions of the
detroit airspace with stronger capping at dtw likely inhibiting
convection at the airport.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and
evening.

* low in thunderstorms this evening.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
discussion...

another round of afternoon evening precipitation yesterday left
the near-surface layer at or near saturation overnight with patchy
fog developing this morning across much of the area. Expect the
greatest coverage across the thumb and saginaw valley where clearing
occurred earlier last night. Any fog or low clouds will mix out by
mid-morning. A similar, albeit slightly cooler, air mass is in place
today compared to yesterday, with dew points well into the 60s and
850mb temps in the mid teens c. Highs will reach the mid 80s upper
80s around metro detroit with heat indices in the upper 80s to lower
90s under partly cloudy skies.

The upper low currently near james bay will drop a potent shortwave
across the northern great lakes this afternoon and evening, which
will force a cold front south across SE michigan by this evening. An
unstable environment remains in place today, but model soundings
indicate a decent cap in the 700-800mb layer which should hold off
much convection given the lack of forcing. The cap is slightly
weaker across the tri-cities and especially the thumb, and with
better forcing arriving via the front, expect scattered showers and
storms to develop in these regions this afternoon. The 50+ kt 500mb
jet will sag south into the central great lakes and contribute to
bulk shear on the order of 35-40 kt by the late afternoon early
evening, coincident with peak heating and frontal passage. Progged
cape values this afternoon reach about 1000 j kg. This may allow
some stronger storms to develop primarily in the thumb with wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph possible. The best window for this
activity to occur will fall between 2 and 8pm.

Any showers and storms will move out by this evening as the cold
front pushes through. Drier northwest wind will usher in a cooler
air mass tonight that persists through the late week. Just a slight
chance of showers across the southern counties tomorrow afternoon as
a disturbance moves along the frontal boundary stalled over the
northern ohio valley. Another lobe of vorticity will drop from the
canadian upper low tomorrow night into Friday, bringing a
reinforcing shot of cool air. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
reach the mid 70s with lows in the 50s. High pressure will drift
across the region during this time, leading to quiet and pleasant
conditions. Return flow sets up as the ridge axis passes to the east
Sunday, allowing warmer and more seasonable air to return to the
great lakes for early next week. The next chance for precipitation
comes Monday as a midlevel low attempts to bring a surge of tropical
moisture northward.

Marine...

a cold front will drop south across lake huron this afternoon before
pushing into lake erie tonight. The front will trigger a few
thunderstorms, mainly on southern lake huron. A few of these could
be strong. Strengthening north-northwest winds will develop within
the post frontal cold air advection tonight, especially on lake
huron. There is moderate to high probabilities that wind gusts
across lake huron will range between 25 and 30 knots tonight. This
will result in hazardous conditions for small craft on the nearshore
waters of lake huron. Strong high pressure will slowly expand into
the great lakes from the north Thursday and Friday, leading to a
gradual decrease in the winds and waves.

Any agitated cumulus may be able to produce waterspouts later today
into tonight across southern lake huron, lake st. Clair, and lake
erie. Water temps are in the 70s near 80 in the western basin of
lake erie and 850mb temps will fall to around 9 to 10c, providing
plenty of instability. Convective cloud depths approaching 25 kft and
relatively weak 850 mb winds both lend additional support.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to noon edt Thursday
for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Tf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45147 - Lake St Clair 2 mi56 min Calm 73°F 75°F1 ft1012 hPa (-0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 6 70°F 1013.5 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 13 mi56 min 68°F 74°F1012.7 hPa (+0.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi56 min 70°F 1012.4 hPa (-0.3)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi56 min W 1.9 G 5.1 69°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.0)66°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi60 minWNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1012.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi63 minW 310.00 miFair69°F68°F96%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE6SE5SE7SE10SE11SE12SE10----SE9S10SE10SW27
G43
--------------CalmNW3W5
1 day agoW4W7NW6--CalmE6S8S7SE8SE12SE10S9S10SE6S6------S3--S3Calm--Calm
2 days agoN3--E4S4S9SE12SW5
G30
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G17
S7SW6------SW7----CalmW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.