Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 272339 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

AVIATION.

Surface high pressure continues to build slowly into the Central Great Lakes region this evening. Predominate northerly gradient flow will do little to promote dry air advection in the short term based on extensive stratus field to the north across Canada. Very subtle shortwave ridging aloft and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will be too weak to punch a subsidence hole in the cloud. Expecting a persistence MVFR cloud forecast throughout the taf period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

DISCUSSION .

Low clouds and limited diurnal temperature swing holds through at least tomorrow.

Latest water vapor shows well defined upper level circulation over northwest Ontario, which will be shearing out and swinging through the northern Great Lakes late tonight-tomorrow. Modest cold advection with this wave may be just enough to steepen up the low level lapse rates and increase cloud depths to generate flurries/very light snow showers. 850 mb temps around -10 C looks to be sufficiently cold enough for ice nuclei, so the prospects for freezing drizzle appears to be very low. Clouds depths due not look to extend much above 850 mb, as the 700 mb cold of -14 C to -15 C tracks across Saginaw Bay tomorrow afternoon and struggles to saturate. As such, will maintain just flurries overnight/tomorrow.

Upper level ridge to build into Lower Michigan Tuesday night- Wednesday, with a strengthening surface high building south from James Bay (but still only 1030 mb). Ridging/low level anti-cyclonic flow extending into southeast Michigan may be enough to lower inversion heights and allow for low clouds to finally dissipate. However, there is hesitation this will occur with the cold northeast flow coming off Lake Huron, and the 12z NAM maintains saturation at the 925 mb level.

For the end of the work week, significant differences emerge between the operational Euro and the GFS ensemble members with the trough/upper level low near the arrowhead of Minnesota Thursday morning, and with the trough/500 mb low over northern Mexico. Euro being more amplified with both features. Regardless, the two upper waves look to remain separate, and will be relying on the moisture starved northern stream wave to potentially produce a few light snow showers by Friday evening.

MARINE .

Northwest flow will continue to weaken into the night then gradually veer to the northeast by Wednesday then east by Thursday as high pressure slowly slides across the northern Great Lakes during the week. Just some light lake induced flurries will be possible through Wednesday, then dry until the next system moves in for the weekend. Wave heights will begin diminishing later tonight and remain quite small for the rest of the week for this time of year.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI	11 mi	19 min	W 4.1 G 6	35°F			1014.9 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4	13 mi	49 min		34°F	35°F		1013.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	38 mi	49 min		34°F			1013.5 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI	40 mi	49 min		33°F			1013.4 hPa	28°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI	14 mi	24 min	NW 3	12.00 mi	Overcast	35°F	34°F	99%	1014.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI	19 mi	26 min	WNW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	35°F	30°F	85%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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