Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 5:39PM Monday January 27, 2020 11:18 PM EST (04:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:38AMMoonset 8:25PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 945 Am Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries late in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of flurries. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LCZ460 Expires:202001272115;;596794 FZUS63 KDTX 271445 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 945 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, over the Canada Plains will slowly begin building into the central Great Lakes today and remain over the region for the majority of the work week. LCZ460-272115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 272339 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 639 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

AVIATION.

Surface high pressure continues to build slowly into the Central Great Lakes region this evening. Predominate northerly gradient flow will do little to promote dry air advection in the short term based on extensive stratus field to the north across Canada. Very subtle shortwave ridging aloft and differential anticyclonic vorticity advection will be too weak to punch a subsidence hole in the cloud. Expecting a persistence MVFR cloud forecast throughout the taf period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

DISCUSSION .

Low clouds and limited diurnal temperature swing holds through at least tomorrow.

Latest water vapor shows well defined upper level circulation over northwest Ontario, which will be shearing out and swinging through the northern Great Lakes late tonight-tomorrow. Modest cold advection with this wave may be just enough to steepen up the low level lapse rates and increase cloud depths to generate flurries/very light snow showers. 850 mb temps around -10 C looks to be sufficiently cold enough for ice nuclei, so the prospects for freezing drizzle appears to be very low. Clouds depths due not look to extend much above 850 mb, as the 700 mb cold of -14 C to -15 C tracks across Saginaw Bay tomorrow afternoon and struggles to saturate. As such, will maintain just flurries overnight/tomorrow.

Upper level ridge to build into Lower Michigan Tuesday night- Wednesday, with a strengthening surface high building south from James Bay (but still only 1030 mb). Ridging/low level anti-cyclonic flow extending into southeast Michigan may be enough to lower inversion heights and allow for low clouds to finally dissipate. However, there is hesitation this will occur with the cold northeast flow coming off Lake Huron, and the 12z NAM maintains saturation at the 925 mb level.

For the end of the work week, significant differences emerge between the operational Euro and the GFS ensemble members with the trough/upper level low near the arrowhead of Minnesota Thursday morning, and with the trough/500 mb low over northern Mexico. Euro being more amplified with both features. Regardless, the two upper waves look to remain separate, and will be relying on the moisture starved northern stream wave to potentially produce a few light snow showers by Friday evening.

MARINE .

Northwest flow will continue to weaken into the night then gradually veer to the northeast by Wednesday then east by Thursday as high pressure slowly slides across the northern Great Lakes during the week. Just some light lake induced flurries will be possible through Wednesday, then dry until the next system moves in for the weekend. Wave heights will begin diminishing later tonight and remain quite small for the rest of the week for this time of year.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . CB DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . DRC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi19 min W 4.1 G 6 35°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 13 mi49 min 34°F 35°F1013.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi49 min 34°F 1013.5 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi49 min 33°F 1013.4 hPa28°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi24 minNW 312.00 miOvercast35°F34°F99%1014.9 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi26 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W8W7W9NW7NW7W5W4NW5NW4NW7N9NW7N8NW5N7NW7NW6NW6W4W4W5W6NW3
1 day agoSW8SW7SW6SW8W7SW7SW7SW7SW7SW8SW10SW10SW12SW10SW10W11W9W8
G16
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2 days agoS6S5S6S8S9S3S4SW6S7SW6S7SW6SW9SW10SW8SW8SW8S7S7SW5S4SW5SW6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.