Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:35PM Sunday September 19, 2021 10:28 AM EDT (14:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:26PMMoonset 4:28AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 354 Am Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the evening...then light showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Light showers likely in the morning.. Then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202109192000;;842948 FZUS63 KDTX 190809 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 354 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2021 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.30 inches has become centered over the northern Great Lakes. This high will move east to Quebec and the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. A slow moving cold front will move into the western Great Lakes on Monday, passing across Lake Huron on Tuesday. This front will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. LCZ460-192000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190934 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 534 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

AVIATION.

A dry airmass and high pressure overhead keeps skies clear through this evening. High cirrus clouds begin to stream into the area from the south late this evening/overnight ahead of the next approaching low. Center of high pressure drifts to our east this morning supporting light 10kt or less southeast winds for the rest of the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 413 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

DISCUSSION .

Sunday through approximately noon Monday.

Last vestiges of surface high pressure will hold on across Lake Huron and southeast Michigan with strong 588 dam H5 ridge axis extending back from Bermuda High extension northwestward into Lower Michigan. Models do show a focused anticyclonic vorticity advection pivot across far Southeast Michigan this afternoon. The subsidence signal fits with forecast soundings showing general high static stability from 3.5 to 10.5 kft agl. Nil sky fraction anticipated. Insolation should allow temperatures to climb to near 80, low 80s south of Detroit.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

Strong potential vorticity trough will advance out of the northern Rockies and into the Dakotas by Monday afternoon. Amplification of the trough is forecasted to result in large/widespread 1000-500 mb height falls across much of the Upper Midwest already Sunday night. The height falls are shown to result in an increasing southwest gradient flow and low level jet response. The main moisture transport vector is directed upon Wisconsin and the southern basin of Lake Michigan initially before edging eastward toward the cwa by Monday afternoon. Did lower PoPs Monday morning with chance PoPs in the afternoon. Initial shortwave energy that gets kicked northward will undoubtedly become sheared out. Some big negatives for widespread precipitation Monday night, namely no upper level jet forcing and background ridging/anticyclonic flow. Low level moisture advection between 2.5 and 5.0 kft will quickly lead to humid weather and unstable conditions Monday afternoon. The chance exists for some thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon. A no shear environment will limit the potential for storm organization for strong/severe potential. A loss of diurnal mixing under a unidirectional flow should result in relatively quiet conditions Monday night.

Tuesday afternoon through noon Wednesday.

A strong upper level jet core will then track directly into Lower Michigan for Tuesday afternoon. Strong convergence along the front with some (+) increase in right entrance region dynamics of emerging jet streak will bring widespread shower and thunderstorm chances to southeast Michigan. Very efficient synoptic scale rain producer given the favorable frontogenesis. Deep thetae/saturation through 20 kft agl in the forecast soundings and PWATS approaching 2.0 inches signals a heavy rainfall threat for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night mainly for far eastern sections of the forecast area. Low level cold advection is forecasted to be very strong post cold front which will lead to increasing stability from the surface through 5.0 kft agl.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

The outright question for this time period in the middle of the week is what will happen to the upper level jet axis in place over the central Great Lakes. A number of solutions show the initial jet streak will lift off into Quebec causing the southern extension of the polar trough to close off and become pseudo stationary directly over Indiana Wednesday night and Thursday. Will not be getting specific here because the specifics are what is really important with these features. The uncertainty centers around whether or not this closed low will become barotropic or if it can remain somewhat baroclinic. The ECMWF has been consistent in a more baroclinic solution which brings a strong deformation axis and occlusion to the state Thursday. This particular solution would then lengthen the chances for heavy rain potential. The notable aspect here is that highs will struggle to reach the low 60s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday night through Saturday night.

Current forecast data suggests an extended period of deep cyclonic flow which will bring potential for showers and below normal temperatures for the end of the week.

MARINE .

High pressure will expand from the eastern Great Lakes to New England Sunday into Monday. This will result in a steady veering of the light easterly winds this morning toward the south-southeast tonight. A slow moving cold front will advance into the western Great Lakes Monday night. An increase in the southeast gradient ahead of this front will push wind speeds into the 15 to 20 knot range across much of Lake Huron. The influx of warm air across the lakes will limit over lake mixing depths and will therefore keep wind gusts in check. The cold front is forecast to move across Lake Huron Tuesday and into the eastern Great Lakes Tues night, bringing showers and thunderstorms and the potential for some gusty post frontal northerly winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . KDK DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . SC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45147 - Lake St Clair 2 mi29 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 70°F1 ft1023.1 hPa (+0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi29 min ENE 4.1 G 6 64°F 1024 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 13 mi59 min 60°F 70°F1023.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi59 min 62°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi33 minENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds63°F61°F93%1024.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi36 minENE 310.00 miFair68°F58°F70%1023.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE8NE8E8E10NE9NE11NE8NE10NE8N7N5N4N3N5N6N5NW3CalmN5N6N4N3NE5
1 day agoS3SE5S66SE9SE9SE7SE5S6S4CalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N13N8N6N8N8N6
2 days agoE7SE7SE9S8SE7SE10SE11SE9E7E7E6E5E5SE7CalmN3N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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