Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:37PM Monday August 26, 2019 3:57 AM CDT (08:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:31AMMoonset 5:03PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 306 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Early this morning..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Today..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers likely through around midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201908262100;;224619 FZUS53 KMKX 260806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-262100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260813
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
313 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Short term
259 am cdt
through tonight...

a wet start to the work and school week for most with widespread
morning rain bringing localized flooding potential, especially if
traversing over any urban areas for a several hour period.

Scattered showers and a few storms are possible later this
afternoon and early evening, before a higher chance of showers and
storms late this evening into overnight. While no pronounced
severe weather threat, a couple storm clusters could get feistier
with what would be mainly a marginal wind threat.

Morning satellite water vapory imagery depicts a lot of action
across central north america. A long wave trough is digging east-
southeast from western central canada into the northern u.S., with
a lead convectively enhanced short wave moving slowly north-
northeast over western illinois. This short wave's vorticity
center is compact, with regional radar imagery indicating a
concentrated multi-county area of heavy rain producing showers
and occasionally embedded thunderstorms along its immediate north
and east side. Extrapolation from observational trends take this
across north central illinois between primarily 6 and 11 a.M.,
with numerous arcs areas of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms further east. After 11 a.M. Into the early to mid
afternoon, temporary subsidence should move over the area limiting
coverage of showers, however low-level isentropic ascent to the
north of a gradually approaching warm front will likely keep areas
of drizzle and spotty showers continuing.

In terms of this morning's rainfall, the environment moving into
the area by daybreak is a juiced one. Upstream soundings last
evening from little rock, ar and nashville, tn both sampled
precipitable waters of 2+ inches, and the 700 mb dew point at ilx
was already an impressive +4c. With deep warm cloud processes in
this environment, very strong moisture transport replenishment
immediately ahead of this short wave, and a duration of 3-4 hours
of heavier rain in north central and parts of northeast illinois,
foresee some places topping 1.5 inches this morning. A couple
locations upstream in missouri late last evening observed over 1.5
inches of rainfall in three hours and suspect that is occurring
in western illinois per mrms data indicating isolated amounts that
high. Have concerns there could be localized flooding with any of
such heavier duration, possibly even flash flooding if over an
urban location, as 3 hr flash flood guidance is around 1.5
inches. The antecedent dry conditions keep this threat localized
and we did collaborate with wpc toward this message. Will for now
continue the local message of the heavier rates low visibility in
rain and potential for ponding localized flooding during a good
part of the morning commute.

As the wave drifts northeast of the area early this afternoon,
clouds will very likely hang tough. A 1005 mb surface low, which
is in response to the short wave, will drift into northwest
illinois early this afternoon. The antecedent warm front will
advance northward into the southern cwa, probably scouring lower
clouds there and likely approach chicago by later afternoon.

Continued isentropic ascent north of the boundary should keep some
spotty showers drizzle occurring, but as for along the front and
into the warm sector, it is a bit more uncertain. Cloud cover will
have stifled heating through that time yet the moist low-level
conditions and still marginally cool air aloft do result in
soundings showing instability, albeit narrow in the vertical
profile. So have maintained a chance for showers and storms
primarily south of i-88.

Synoptically, today has a few subtle features, namely a warm
front and mcv, that could get one concerned for a "gotcha" severe
event. However, these features do not look to be in-sync
especially with the MCV moving away resulting in subsidence
during any quick heating recovery to near 80 degrees south later
in the day. Nonetheless, if scattered convection can sprout later
in the afternoon into early evening, it would have a non-zero
severe threat.

For tonight, the early-mid evening period still looks like any
showers or storms would be limited in coverage. As the deeper long
wave trough digs into minnesota and wisconsin, stronger upper and
mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will overspread the area.

Expectations are for there to be a decent amount of convection in
missouri this evening, and probably organized as it moves into
central southern illinois. This may impede ideal moisture
transport into the area for a large precipitation shield. Any
clusters of convection that do materialize in the CWA could have
a marginal severe wind threat given the moist profiles for
precipitation loading and unidirectional west- southwest flow in
the column. With low-level phasing occurring over lake
superior southern ontario, an acceleration of a surface cold
front through the area will occur overnight and early Tuesday
morning. As this passes it will end shower and thunderstorm
chances.

Mtf

Long term
312 am cdt
Tuesday through Sunday...

the long wave trough will have a closed upper low develop within
over western ontario on Tuesday, with a deep surface low
underneath gradually occluding Tuesday night through Wednesday.

This will establish westerly low-level flow over the great lakes.

Disturbances pivoting around this upper low are presently
forecast to remain to the north of the cwa, though the upper jet
does buckle quiet a ways south, so cannot rule out later forecasts
having to add a small chance for a shower on Wednesday. But that
continues to look inconsequential if it were to occur. Highs on
Tuesday look to reach the upper 70s with a fair amount of sunshine
within the system dry slot, while Wednesday will see the
reinforcing cold front and breezier conditions keep highs more
lower to mid 70s.

The forecast has some lower chances for showers late in the week
into the start of the weekend, associated with a mid-level wave
seen in GFS and ec solutions translating within the quasi-zonal
flow to the south of the continued canadian trough. Such a feature
five days out comes with low confidence at this juncture.

Temperatures presently look seasonable for the holiday weekend
and the start to meteorological... Autumn.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

a well defined upper level disturbance over northeastern mo will
continue moving eastward. Showers are developing in advance of
this system and should spread an area of rain and showers across
the terminals overnight and continuing through Monday morning.

Given the increasing moisture and fairly strong forcing, there may
be some periods of moderate to heavy rain Monday morning which
would bring visibility and CIGS down to ifr levels. Some embedded
tsra cannot be ruled out late tonight into Monday morning, but
weak instability and unfavorable timing, will continue to keep
mention of tsra out of the tafs.

The rain should help saturate the lower levels and with persistent
sely flow off of the lake and warm front to the south of the
terminals, conditions would support ifr CIGS developing Monday
morning and perhaps lingering into the afternoon. Diurnal warming
should allow CIGS to lift slowly Monday afternoon as the wave
moves east and the prevailing rain ends. A lull in activity is
expected for much of the afternoon as weak shortwave ridging
crosses the region as the first wave exits to the east and the
next system approaches from the west. Another round of shra tsra
is expected for Monday night, possibly beginning by late
afternoon or early evening. This second round of pcpn is likely to
have more tsra with increasing low level instability through the
afternoon hours and stronger forcing associated with a cold front
pushing across the region. There is some uncertainty to the exact
timing of the FROPA with some of the latest guidance suggesting a
slower progression to the system. However, regardless of the exact
timing of the fropa, a period of shra tsra is likely with lower
end MVFR or higher end ifr CIGS vis.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 10 pm Monday.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Winthrop harbor to northerly is. Until 10 pm Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi38 min SE 12 G 16 74°F 72°F5 ft
45186 7 mi38 min SE 12 G 16 70°F 72°F4 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi58 min SE 17 G 20 70°F 1013.2 hPa (-1.4)
45174 25 mi28 min ESE 12 G 16 72°F4 ft1011.1 hPa
FSTI2 35 mi118 min ESE 14 70°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi38 min SE 17 G 18 71°F 63°F
OKSI2 40 mi118 min SSE 4.1 G 11 72°F
45177 41 mi118 min 73°F1 ft
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi38 min ESE 19 G 23 69°F 71°F1013.8 hPa60°F
45013 44 mi58 min SE 14 G 19 70°F 69°F5 ft1014 hPa (-1.6)
CNII2 44 mi43 min SE 8 G 15 70°F 60°F
JAKI2 49 mi118 min SSE 4.1 G 12 71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi2.1 hrsSE 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast71°F62°F73%1013.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi2.1 hrsSE 11 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F59°F66%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE5SE5E4SE6SE8E11SE9SE10
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1 day agoCalmCalmSE3SE4E9SE12SE8
G19
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E9NE9E9NE8NE8NE7E9E7E7SE6SE7SE9
2 days agoNE4NE5NE6E8E9E8NE8E8NE7NE8
G18
E9NE9N7
G16
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NE9NE6N4N4CalmNW5NW4NW3NW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.