Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:22PM Saturday November 28, 2020 1:16 AM CST (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the morning, then becoming west 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202011281000;;511074 FZUS53 KMKX 280706 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-281000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 280521 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1121 PM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

SHORT TERM. 1204 PM CST

Through Saturday night .

Quiet conditions are in store with no significant forecast concerns for the first half of the weekend. This afternoon we'll finally be clearing out the pesky low clouds we've dealt with much of the past few days. The rest of the short term will then be mostly clear for a change. Influence of surface high pressure over the central Plains will extend across the area tonight, followed by the surface high passing to our south on Saturday. Winds becoming light to calm tonight will support good radiational cooling conditions for seasonable lows in the 20s outside of Chicago. Can't rule out some patchy ground fog I-80 and south where dew points will stay a bit higher, though no official mention yet in the grids, with confidence low and coverage likely to stay very patchy if any fog develops.

Westerly warm advection on Saturday will keep mixing heights pretty shallow, but with full sun and southwest winds gusting up to 25 mph in the afternoon, temperatures will rebound from the chilly start to the upper 40s to lower 50s, solidly above normal for the date. If mixing is a bit deeper than forecast, some mid 50s readings will be possible. This will be followed by lows a few to several degrees warmer than tonight on Saturday night, as southwest winds probably stay up in the 5-10 mph range. There could even be sporadic gusts as a fairly vigorous low level jet develops overhead.

Castro

LONG TERM. 244 PM CST

Sunday through Friday .

No major changes in the forecast as we look ahead to a storm system that will provide a glancing blow to portions of the area early next week.

A deep upper-low over the AZ/NM line this afternoon will drift east to southern OK by early Sunday before lifting along the Ohio River Valley Sunday night. Meanwhile, a trough over far northwest Canada today will dig southeast to the Upper Mississippi River Valley by late Sunday. Resultant phasing of the two features will yield a strengthening broad upper low encompassing the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by Monday night. After the low slowly lifts northeast into Quebec by Wednesday, a mid-level saddle point will cross the area through Wednesday night. While slight run-to-run differences in both the temporal and spatial evolution of both features are evident in guidance through Tuesday, there have not been any significant changes among the collective deterministic and ensemble model suite.

Quiet weather should continue into Sunday as cloud cover increases in advance of the southern system. A cold front extending southwest from a low traversing Lake Superior Saturday night will cross the CWA during the afternoon hours, likely leading to falling temps for at least the northwest half of the CWA after earlier highs in the mid 40s. While deep moisture will be lacking along the front as it crosses most of the CWA, some guidance has trended toward an earlier arrival of a narrow band of higher PWAT air ahead of the approaching southern low. An axis of post-frontal snow, possibly mixing with rain at onset, may form roughly along and southeast of I-55 by mid- evening Sunday through the overnight hours. A light dusting of up to a few tenths of an inch of snow is possible during this time.

Attention then turns to increasingly favorable LES parameters into the Illinois shore and northwest Indiana later Sunday night into Monday night. Marginal 850hPa-SST delta T values around 12C (still sufficient for lake enhancement) will increase to around 15C by mid- morning Sunday. Meanwhile, lake-induced convective PBLs will grow as deep as 8-10kft. Additionally, fetch will be about an long as possible into northwest Indiana due to the slight cyclonic curvature in the wind field mostly matching the shape of Lake Michigan. Putting this together, a potentially impactful LES event still appears likely into northwest Indiana near and east of Gary. Higher probabilities of a dominate mid-lake band amid a strong low-level wind field will likely allow for a decent amount of inland propagation of the snow through portions of Newton and most of Jasper counties. With that said, some concern remains that slightly backed flow in the top of the convective layer combined with enhanced shoreline convergence could initially focus the LES band as far west as along the Illinois shore with the band edging a few miles inland (including downtown Chicago). This remains a lower probability scenario, but still something worth keeping an eye on.

Finally, though thermal profiles are marginal for snow growth and indicate near-surface temps possibly above freezing, substantial lift in the convective layer aided by the upper trough should be sufficient for producing >10:1 SLRs.

A prolonged strong northerly wind event remains likely late Sunday night through Tuesday, with the strongest winds throughout the day Monday. Gusts in excess of 35 mph across the east half of the CWA, with gusts to 45 mph possible near Lake Michigan (especially within and dominate LES band), are expected through much of the day Monday. Given the prolonged north wind event, the combination of large waves over at least 10 feet and surge will increase concerns for a higher end lakeshore flood event for northwest Indiana with notable impacts also for the Cook County shore Monday into Tuesday.

LES should end by Tuesday night as winds slowly diminish. Seasonable conditions with highs around 40 will then remain in place to close out next week.

Kluber

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns for this TAF period include: * SW wind gusts up to 20-25 kts from late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon

Winds will remain rather calm tonight under the influence of approaching surface high pressure. While the high pressure will not move directly over the area, it will prompt winds to back from westerly to southwesterly overnight. The southwesterly winds will pick up by late Saturday morning and could gust up to around 25 kts by mid-afternoon Saturday before gusts die down by Saturday evening. Still can't rule out the possibility of some patchy ground fog south of the terminals late tonight, and again north of the Chicago terminals prior to and around dawn on Sunday. Otherwise, primarily clear skies are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

Ogorek

MARINE.

A strengthening storm system is expected to track along the western Appalachians into the lower Great Lakes Sunday night into Tuesday while a surface ridge persists from the Missouri River Valley into northern Ontario. These is an increasing likelihood for a prolonged north gale event over Lake Michigan Late Sunday night into Tuesday, with the strongest gales in excess of 40 knots Monday morning into the evening for the Indiana nearshore. The prolonged wind and long fetch will likely result in waves potentially to 15 feet along the Indiana nearshore and 10 feet for portions of the Illinois nearshore on Monday.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi137 min W 7 G 8.9 33°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi77 min WNW 7 G 8.9 33°F
FSTI2 35 mi77 min 34°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 37 mi27 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 32°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi27 min WNW 13 G 15 36°F 26°F
OKSI2 40 mi77 min NW 2.9 G 6 37°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi27 min NW 16 G 19 39°F 45°F3 ft1021.1 hPa31°F
CNII2 44 mi17 min WNW 5.1 G 8.9 35°F 24°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi22 minW 510.00 miFair31°F21°F69%1021.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi24 minW 610.00 miFair30°F21°F72%1021 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi24 minW 510.00 miFair31°F21°F69%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmCalm3CalmNW3CalmCalmNW6NW8NW75W7W7W8W44W6W4443W5W5
1 day agoW5W5W3W3W6SW5W4W5SW8SW13
G20
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SW15SW16SW14SW8SW96SW6SW5SW5SW6SW5SW5
2 days agoSW4S4S5CalmCalmNE3E4SE5NE6E7E5NE5NE6NE7NE7N6N6N7N64N4N6
G15
NW8W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.