Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:26PM Monday February 17, 2020 11:06 PM CST (05:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:26AMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 907 Pm Cst Mon Feb 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..South wind 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming west 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Rain likely late in the evening. Chance of rain and slight chance of snow after midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202002181100;;703219 FZUS53 KMKX 180307 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 907 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-181100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 180501 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1101 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

UPDATE. 849 PM CST

Very moist and saturated or nearly saturated boundary layer combined with decreasing winds near the low center and loss of daytime heating is allowing dense fog to expand in areal coverage across western IL. Hard to find any good meteorological reason why that dense fog won't continue to develop east across much of the CWA over the next few hours, so went ahead and hoisted a dense fog advisory. May eventually need to expand into NW IN as well, but they should be last to be affected and can wait to make sure eastward development continues before adding them to the advisory.

Text products are all out.

- Izzi

SHORT TERM. 300 PM CST

Through Tuesday .

The main concern in the short term from a weather impact perspective is the potential for areas of fog this evening into the overnight, with patchy dense fog possible. The precipitation the rest of this afternoon through the evening and early overnight will be primarily light rain trending to more of a drizzly regime during the evening as ice is lost aloft. Reports of wet snow and/or ice pellets mixed in with the rain over portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana as of this writing should be temporary as warmer air noses in aloft and surface dew points rise. Surface low analyzed north of Kansas City MO at about 1007 mb will track to southeast Wisconsin by 06z tonight.

During the evening (and perhaps toward sunset in parts of area), moist low levels from slim to nil dew point spreads in the weaker pressure gradient/lighter wind regime prior to cold front passage could be conducive to fog development. Already seeing 1/2SM visibility at Macomb in western Illinois. Much of the guidance is hitting fog fairly hard, though with stratus staying socked in it would be more of the further lowering OVC building down to fog, which adds some uncertainty. Parts of northwest/north central Illinois, including RFD area, had the additional slushy snow accums and those areas will melt less of existing snow cover, so suspect this is where higher chance for at least patchy dense fog resides. Cold front passage from west-northwest to east-southeast from about 06z to 09z will bring a shift to gusty west-northwest winds and end the fog risk. Temperatures will cool toward or below freezing into Tuesday morning, but the thinking is the winds gusting to ~25 mph and lower dew points behind the front should help dry out lingering moisture and preclude a greater risk of icy spots on roads.

Main question on Tuesday is timing the clearing of extensive post-frontal stratus, which should occur from west to east from the late morning through mid afternoon, based off latest guidance trends. Northwest winds will stay elevated with gusts up to 25 mph through mid afternoon with temps topping out mainly in the lower to mid 30s (a few 37-38 readings possible southeast 1/3 of CWA).

Castro

LONG TERM. 300 PM CST

Tuesday Night through Monday .

Quiet and chilly weather is in store for the mid to latter portion of the work week thanks to an unusually strong surface high in in the upper 1040s mb building southeastward from the Northern Plains. Looking at cold advection to bleed in through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and then a reinforcing shot Wednesday night into Thursday. Low temps early Wed will be primarily teens with a few single digits favored cold spots, followed by more widespread single digits outlying areas Wed. night-Thu. AM and Thu. night-Fri. AM.

After below normal highs in the mid 30s to low 30s Wednesday, Thursday will be the coldest day of the week with highs ranging from the upper teens to around 20 north to mid to locally upper 20s south. Any potential narrow banded light snow with the reinforcing cold air shot Wednesday night appears more likely to stay well southwest of the CWA for now. Lowest wind chills during the coldest portions of the period will be -5 to -15F interior northern Illinois, so not expecting needing any wind chill headlines this week. Moderation will begin on Friday on the back side of the departing high pressure, but highs will probably only tag near normal after the chilly start. Saturday has upside potential from lower to mid 40s forecast highs especially if clouds aren't an issue. Uncertainty increases Saturday Night- Monday period owing to possible bowling ball type system, which are notoriously difficult for the models to pin down. Have generally lower PoPs during that period and made no changes to NBM temps, which are still likely to be above normal, but plenty of variance depending on any clouds/precip from possible system.

Castro

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Forecast concerns include .

Fog with possible vlifr cigs/vis thru early morning. Cold front early this morning. Strong/gusty northwest winds Tuesday.

Low pressure will move northeast of the area early Tuesday morning with a strong cold front moving across the terminals. Until this front arrives . fog will continue with visibilities 1sm or less along with cigs in the 200-400ft range across much of the area. Cigs will lift into ifr behind the front and then low mvfr but there is still some uncertainty for how fast cigs will lift into low mvfr. Cigs will continue to lift through mvfr during the morning and then are expected to scatter out in the afternoon.

Southerly winds will turn southwest over the next few hours with speeds 10kts or less. Winds will shift west/northwest with the cold front and gust into the mid 20kt range. There may be a brief period of gusts into the 30kt range just behind the cold front. Speeds/gusts will slowly diminish Tuesday afternoon with gusts expected to end with sunset Tuesday evening. Wind directions may turn more north/northwest Tuesday night. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Dense Fog Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010- ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022- ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 until 4 AM Tuesday.

IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor until 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ741-LMZ742 . 3 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745 . 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM Thursday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi67 min SSE 15 G 17 34°F 1009.1 hPa (-2.8)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi37 min S 18 G 19 36°F 36°F
CNII2 44 mi37 min S 4.1 G 11 36°F 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi3.2 hrsSE 102.50 miFog/Mist34°F32°F92%1011.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi3.2 hrsSE 112.50 miFog/Mist36°F33°F89%1012 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi3.2 hrsSE 14 G 182.50 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist35°F32°F89%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUGN

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3E4E8E7E8E9E9SE11SE10SE12SE12SE12SE11SE9SE12
G22
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--SE5
1 day agoW7W6W5W6W6W4CalmS3S4CalmN4N6CalmCalmCalmE5SE3E6SE3CalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoS11S9SW12
G20
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SW8SW8W65

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.