Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brocton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday July 12, 2020 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:16PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 344 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A slight chance of showers this evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:202007130215;;745247 FZUS61 KCLE 121944 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 344 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south of Lake Erie tonight. High pressure averaging 30.00 inches will build east across Lake Erie on Monday and Tuesday, moving into the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. Another cold front will move east across the lake on Thursday, with a ridge averaging 30.00 inches returning to the lake Friday. LEZ061-168-169-130215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brocton, NY
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location: 42.5, -79.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 122109 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A couple weak upper level disturbances will usher in cooler and less humid air through Monday. There may be a few showers with these, but the vast majority of the time will be dry. Heat and humidity will increase during the week, with the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A weak upper mid level trough will move across the region through this evening. Drier airmass limits diurnal instability, but there will be enough for spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along lake breeze boundaries and across the Western Southern Tier through this evening. Thus far greatest coverage is closer the approaching trough over the St. Lawrence River region. These will mainly taper off tonight, but a few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario overnight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight, due to the cooler and drier air mass.

Another shortwave will pivot around a longwave trough centered near the Ontario/Quebec province border on Monday. This combined with diurnal instability will support a few showers (and possibly a thunderstorm), which will be most widespread east of Lake Ontario which will be closest to the shortwave. This will also bring in cooler air aloft, with 850mb temperatures down to around +11c. So far Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown have reached 80F every day this July, but this streak may be broken with forecast highs only in the mid to upper 70s on Monday.

A few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario nearest to the departing trough, but otherwise it will be just cool and dry Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. An upper level ridge will move over the Great Lakes while an exiting trough over New England maintains a northwest flow Tuesday. As surface high pressure extends into the eastern Great Lakes, northwest flow will diminish. Enough moisture will be present to produce scattered showers mainly east of Lake Ontario through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions expected elsewhere as a cumulus field forms across inland portions of the region. Can't rule out a few brief afternoon showers across the higher terrain of western NY. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead Tuesday night resulting in calm and clear conditions. Low temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50s and near 60 along the lake shores.

The upper level ridge axis becomes centered overhead Wednesday and mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected. Warm air advection will begin across western NY Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from the mid to upper 80s across western NY to the low 80s east of Lake Ontario.

The ridge axis moves into New England Wednesday night. An elevated warm front will move across the region while surface low pressure approaches from the Mid-West. Shower chances increase across western NY into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus brings a convectively driven shortwave and low across the region on Thursday which is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday when a zonal flow becomes established across the Great Lakes region with an elongated area of high pressure anchored across the lower half of the Lower 48. The next shortwave will approach the region Sunday with a small chance of showers and storms. Heat and humidity will gradually increase, with high temperatures near 90 again during the weekend.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions through this evening. Maybe a couple spotty showers along lake breeze boundaries. As of late afternoon it looks like the greatest chance will be in the vcnty of ART as showers and thunderstorms roam across the St. Lawrence River.

Shortwave and ill-defined boundary will increase cloud cover tonight with areas of MVFR developing around 08Z. Patchy fog possible across the Western Southern Tier, but its questionable if it will reach the KJHW terminal.

Outlook .

Monday afternoon . VFR/MVFR with a chance showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with a chance showers and thunderstorms. Friday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers.

MARINE. Winds will increase briefly behind a shortwave and an ill- defined boundary. This will produce choppy conditions across Western Lake Ontario tonight, but probably below small craft advisory criteria.

High pressure will then provide gentle to occasional moderate breezes Monday through Wednesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 7 mi47 min W 12 G 15 74°F 1007.4 hPa (-0.3)
45142 - Port Colborne 20 mi107 min WSW 14 G 16 73°F 74°F2 ft1006.8 hPa (-0.4)
NREP1 23 mi77 min WNW 13 G 16 78°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 27 mi47 min 74°F 1007.5 hPa
EREP1 39 mi47 min WNW 7 G 12
45167 41 mi67 min WNW 12 G 16 73°F 78°F1 ft
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 41 mi47 min WSW 16 G 18 74°F 80°F1007.9 hPa55°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 47 mi47 min 76°F 1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY12 mi54 minW 1010.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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W7W7W7W5SW6W6W6SW4SW6SW5SW4SW4SW7SW8W9W8
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W8SW9W9SW11W10
1 day agoN7W10SW6SW15
G26
S6NE5CalmE4CalmSW5S3SW3S7S5S4SE7CalmE7SE6NW9NW13
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2 days agoN6NE4NE4E3W5W8NE4S11SE6E3CalmS6S11S9S12
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SW7S7N7N8N10N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.