Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brocton, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 122109 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A couple weak upper level disturbances will usher in cooler and less humid air through Monday. There may be a few showers with these, but the vast majority of the time will be dry. Heat and humidity will increase during the week, with the best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A weak upper mid level trough will move across the region through this evening. Drier airmass limits diurnal instability, but there will be enough for spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop along lake breeze boundaries and across the Western Southern Tier through this evening. Thus far greatest coverage is closer the approaching trough over the St. Lawrence River region. These will mainly taper off tonight, but a few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario overnight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight, due to the cooler and drier air mass.

Another shortwave will pivot around a longwave trough centered near the Ontario/Quebec province border on Monday. This combined with diurnal instability will support a few showers (and possibly a thunderstorm), which will be most widespread east of Lake Ontario which will be closest to the shortwave. This will also bring in cooler air aloft, with 850mb temperatures down to around +11c. So far Buffalo, Rochester, and Watertown have reached 80F every day this July, but this streak may be broken with forecast highs only in the mid to upper 70s on Monday.

A few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario nearest to the departing trough, but otherwise it will be just cool and dry Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. An upper level ridge will move over the Great Lakes while an exiting trough over New England maintains a northwest flow Tuesday. As surface high pressure extends into the eastern Great Lakes, northwest flow will diminish. Enough moisture will be present to produce scattered showers mainly east of Lake Ontario through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions expected elsewhere as a cumulus field forms across inland portions of the region. Can't rule out a few brief afternoon showers across the higher terrain of western NY. Temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead Tuesday night resulting in calm and clear conditions. Low temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 50s and near 60 along the lake shores.

The upper level ridge axis becomes centered overhead Wednesday and mostly sunny and dry conditions are expected. Warm air advection will begin across western NY Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon highs will range from the mid to upper 80s across western NY to the low 80s east of Lake Ontario.

The ridge axis moves into New England Wednesday night. An elevated warm front will move across the region while surface low pressure approaches from the Mid-West. Shower chances increase across western NY into Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Model consensus brings a convectively driven shortwave and low across the region on Thursday which is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday when a zonal flow becomes established across the Great Lakes region with an elongated area of high pressure anchored across the lower half of the Lower 48. The next shortwave will approach the region Sunday with a small chance of showers and storms. Heat and humidity will gradually increase, with high temperatures near 90 again during the weekend.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Mainly VFR flight conditions through this evening. Maybe a couple spotty showers along lake breeze boundaries. As of late afternoon it looks like the greatest chance will be in the vcnty of ART as showers and thunderstorms roam across the St. Lawrence River.

Shortwave and ill-defined boundary will increase cloud cover tonight with areas of MVFR developing around 08Z. Patchy fog possible across the Western Southern Tier, but its questionable if it will reach the KJHW terminal.

Outlook .

Monday afternoon . VFR/MVFR with a chance showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with a chance showers and thunderstorms. Friday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers.

MARINE. Winds will increase briefly behind a shortwave and an ill- defined boundary. This will produce choppy conditions across Western Lake Ontario tonight, but probably below small craft advisory criteria.

High pressure will then provide gentle to occasional moderate breezes Monday through Wednesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Apffel AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . Apffel

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	7 mi	47 min	W 12 G 15	74°F			1007.4 hPa (-0.3)
45142 - Port Colborne	20 mi	107 min	WSW 14 G 16	73°F	74°F	2 ft	1006.8 hPa (-0.4)
NREP1	23 mi	77 min	WNW 13 G 16	78°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	27 mi	47 min		74°F			1007.5 hPa
EREP1	39 mi	47 min	WNW 7 G 12
45167	41 mi	67 min	WNW 12 G 16	73°F	78°F	1 ft
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	41 mi	47 min	WSW 16 G 18	74°F	80°F		1007.9 hPa	55°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	47 mi	47 min		76°F			1007.1 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Last 24hr

W15 G19

W18 G24

NW14 G18

W10

W13 G16

W14 G17

W16

W14 G17

NW12 G15

W12

W10

W10

W7

W8

SW4

SW9 G12

SW13

SW11 G14

SW11 G14

SW11 G15

SW13 G17

SW14 G17

W17

SW16

1 day ago

W8

W4

N4

SW9

SW21 G27

W7

NW3

W2

N3

W5

SW9

S10

S5 G8

S10

S8

S7

W8

W6

NW5

NW13

NW10 G13

NW10 G13

NW15 G19

W17

2 days ago

SW6

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NE3 G7

NE3

E4 G7

SW9 G13

W18

NE4

S8

S8

SE4

E3

SE4

SE2

SW8 G11

SW4

SW4

W4

NW2

W4

W2

W5

W8

W6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY	12 mi	54 min	W 10	10.00 mi	Fair	76°F	63°F	64%	1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)

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W11 G19

W12 G19

W13 G23

W7

W7

W7

W5

SW6

W6

W6

SW4

SW6

SW5

SW4

SW4

SW7

SW8

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W8 G15

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SW9

W9

SW11

W10

1 day ago

N7

W10

SW6

SW15 G26

S6

NE5

Calm

E4

Calm

SW5

S3

SW3

S7

S5

S4

SE7

Calm

E7

SE6

NW9

NW13 G21

W17 G26

W15 G25

W12 G21

2 days ago

N6

NE4

NE4

E3

W5

W8

NE4

S11

SE6

E3

Calm

S6

S11

S9

S12 G19

S15 G21

S13 G24

W5 G15

SW7

S7

N7

N8

N10

N8

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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