Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 12:13 AM   Moonset 8:32 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Pm Cdt Sun Apr 28 2024
.dense fog advisory in effect until midnight cdt tonight - ..small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening - .
Tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots backing southeast late in the evening, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Numerous showers through around midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Monday - South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers through the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 282047 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 347 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional showers today and tonight. Isolated to scattered storms this evening into the overnight but severe storms and any flooding is very unlikely.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off towards normal this weekend.



SHORT TERM
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tonight through Monday night:

Fog has redeveloped from MKE to ENW and should spread nwd along the lake as the stalled front moves nwd as a warm front. The fog will be dense nearest to the lake cannot rule out a Dense Fog Advisory. Otherwise occasional lgt showers and drizzle should continue via 925-700 mb warm, moist advection and frontogenesis.
Moist adiabatic lapse rates and very minimal elevated CAPE will greatly limit the thunderstorm threat into the early evening.

For tnt the low over ern NE will move toward se MN while it occludes, which may prevent the warm front from lifting entirely into central WI. A n-s band of showers and storms is expected to develop ahead of the upper wave and large dry slot rotating around the upper low. This band of showers and storms should move newd into srn WI from 02-08Z, but lapse rates remain very poor with very minimal MUCAPE. The SVR storm threat is very marginal and near the IL border.

The cold front or occluded front will then pass Mon AM into the early afternoon, while the low pressure area tracks from se MN to wrn Lake Superior. Mild temps are still expected with the stronger cold advection holding off until the evening. a few lingering showers are possible especially along the front. Temps will drop into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tue.

Gehring

LONG TERM
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

Dry and clear conditions expected Tuesday, with temperatures climbing to near 70 degrees. Light winds may shift onshore from Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours, keeping temperatures cooler in those regions. Southerly winds increase Tuesday evening ahead of a trough swinging through the region Tuesday night, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Generally expecting elevated instability to be the main driver of lightning potential.

After the main trough propagates northeastward Wednesday morning, a developing system in the lee of the Colorado Rockies allows for warm frontogenesis across Iowa into southern Wisconsin late Wednesday, bringing additional rounds of showers. A few elevated thunderstorms are again possible as the warm front lifts northward into central Wisconsin overnight. Continuous WAA will keep temperatures above normal into Thursday.

Thursday, low pressure propagates into the Upper Midwest, bringing best chances for thunderstorms as southern Wisconsin remains firmly in the warm sector with strong southerly winds bringing in continued warm temperatures. Modeling diverges in solutions for Friday into Saturday, with faster models indicating cold frontal passage Friday morning and therefore clearing conditions into Saturday. Slower modeling solutions, specifically the GFS, indicate continuing overrunning precipitation through Saturday.
However, modeling generally agrees that southern Wisconsin will be well within the northwesterly flow by Saturday, returning temperatures to normal through Sunday.

Gehring

AVIATION
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Cigs well below 1 kft this afternoon and tnt over much of srn WI with some improvement near the IL border. Occasional showers will continue but also with some fog development. Dense fog will occur near Lake MI at times. Farther inland, vsbys will trend downward to 1-3SM BR. A few storms may occur over far srn WI this evening into the overnight. Gusty nely winds to 20-30 kt near Lake MI the rest of the afternoon then weakening. Gusty swly winds over all of srn WI from late Mon AM through the afternoon. Cigs will rise to MVFR during mid to late Mon AM with areas of bkn035-040 stratocumulus in the afternoon.

Gehring

MARINE
Issued 345 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A stalled front is draped across the southern end of the lake today. Low pressure around 29.7 inches over northeast Nebraska will track to southeast Minnesota by Monday morning. The low will bring the front north to central Lake Michigan this evening with winds shifting from northeast to southeasterly. Areas of dense fog may then form over southern and central Lake Michigan during this time. Brisk east winds will continue over far northern Lake Michigan through the night and into Monday with a few gale force gusts possible. Modest southwest winds will then prevail Monday night into Tuesday. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the nearshore waters from North Point Lighthouse to Winthrop Harbor until midnight. Another Dense Fog Advisory may be needed north of North Point Lighthouse late this afternoon and evening.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Monday.

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