Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pearl Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:45PM Saturday October 19, 2019 7:05 PM EDT (23:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 12:24PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 950 Am Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the afternoon and evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LCZ460 Expires:201910192015;;944716 FZUS63 KDTX 191350 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 950 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.10 inches will build into the Mid Atlantic Coast today, resulting in increased southeast wind. A weakening cold front will then track through late Saturday night and Sunday morning, with high pressure of 30.10 inches returning Sunday night. A powerful low pressure system is expected to deepen to at least 29.10 inches across the upper Mississippi Valley and far western Lake Superior basin Monday night and Tuesday. LCZ460-192015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearl Beach, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.54, -82.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 191941
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
341 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Discussion
Expect quiet weather through the weekend and seasonably mild
temperatures through Monday before a strong low pressure system
lifts through the great lakes late Monday into Tuesday bringing
showers and windy conditions across the region. Broad upper level
trough will then hold over the great lakes through the week keeping
cool air in place with a couple more chances of showers.

First order of business is dealing with a weakening cold front
currently to our west extending from western ontario southward
through missouri. The parent low is well to the northwest of the
area over northern manitoba and appears to be tracking farther north
overnight. This will pull the best forcing northward while the front
continues its push east through lower mi. Models keep a narrow
ribbon of moisture and weakening fgen along the front tonight as the
front passes but lack of moisture and dry low levels owning to the
current ridge in place should result in mainly mid clouds advancing
over the area tonight. There could be a few drops of rain mainly
over the saginaw valley but a very low chance thus will leave out of
the forecast. Current regional radar loop shows the southern extent
of the front becoming fairly scattered which gives credit to the
continued weakening trend. The clouds will keep min temps a bit
higher tonight, 40s across the area, preventing the frost we've been
seeing in recent days.

High pressure builds back into the region Sunday as flow flips
southerly and shortwave ridge slide over the region ahead of the
deepening trough. This will lead to another pleasant fall day with
temps rising into the mid 60s and plenty of sunshine.

By Monday morning the strengthening trough will be over the central
plains with lee cyclogenesis taking place on the nose of a potent
140+ knot jet max. A shortwave jet MAX exiting the trough will align
north south Monday afternoon which will excite a short period of
decent warm air advection with a narrow corridor of moisture lifting
north of the cold front before it sweeps through Monday night. Pwats
look to jump from around the current 0.75" to possibly over 1.25".

The rapidly deepening surface low will track northeast through the
northern great lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This track will pull
the best forcing on the isentropic arm north of the region while the
instability gradient focuses south of the region. We're left in an
all too common position with a high shear low CAPE environment in
the vicinity of an occluding front splitting the two favorable
regions of forcing. Will advertise showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms for now Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will be
mild Monday back into the mid 60s but gusty winds over 30 mph and
cloudy skies will take some enjoyment out of that even before the
rain starts in the afternoon.

Troughing then encompasses the region Tuesday through the remainder
of the week as the upper level low stalls over ontario quebec with
reinforcing shortwaves entering the trough to keep it over the
region. Highs will hover in the 50s with lows around 40. There is a
chance of showers on Tuesday as the trailing trough and deformation
region swings through lower mi. Boundary layer mixing and cold air
advection will lead to strong low level lapse rates aiding in
afternoon shower development. Westerly flow then looks to set up
heading into the latter part of the week before hints of the next
trough start taking shape heading into the weekend.

Marine
Fresh southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots
will diminish this evening and remain light and variable into Sunday
as a surface ridge builds east into the region. Southeast winds will
begin to increase by Monday morning as a low pressure system deepens
and lifts northward into the upper mississippi river valley and far
western basin of lake superior.

Winds will increase further late Monday into Monday night as this
system approaches. A gale watch has been issued as gusts over
portions of lake huron may very well push 40 knots by Monday
evening. Winds will then shift to the southwest overnight Monday
night with any remaining gale force gust potential focusing from
saginaw bay into central lake huron as the wind funnels up the bay.

Winds will then shift to the west and gradually weaken from Tuesday
night into Wednesday as the low pressure system lifts north to the
southern shores of hudson bay.

Hydrology
Strong low pressure will track into the northern great lakes on
Monday with a trailing cold front then pivoting east northeast
through the region Monday night. Widespread rainfall is expected
from Monday afternoon into Monday night as this system encroaches on
and then passes through the area. At this time, it appears that
rainfall amounts of three quarters of an inch will be quite possible
in many locations with local amounts of around an inch not out of
the question. Such rainfall totals should not cause any significant
flooding risks although ponding of water on area roadways and other
prone areas can be expected.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1255 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions are expected this forecast with cirrus thickening and
lowering, especially tonight into Sunday. Some lower clouds may work
into kmbs kfnt on Sunday (5-10kft) as southwest flow begins to take
shape on the back side of passing surface ridge. A period of patchy
fog will be possible again early Sunday morning as calm conditions
will exist within this ridge.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
lhz361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 7 mi48 min 1011.3 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 8 mi66 min 56°F 53°F1 ft1011.5 hPa (-1.9)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 14 mi66 min SE 8.9 G 11 56°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 32 mi54 min 57°F 1011.3 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 34 mi54 min S 9.9 G 13 57°F 1011.1 hPa40°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
Last
24hr
E5
SE6
SE8
SE4
S3
S4
S7
S3
S5
S4
S4
G7
S4
S7
S7
G10
S5
S4
G7
S11
S10
S11
S9
S9
G14
S11
G15
S12
G17
S9
G13
1 day
ago
N16
NW5
G9
NW6
NW6
G10
NW7
NW7
G12
NW7
G10
NW7
G11
NW6
G9
NW9
G14
NW8
G12
NW9
G12
NW5
G9
NW2
G8
N7
G12
N11
G14
N11
NE9
NE7
NE7
NE8
NE6
NE7
2 days
ago
NW8
G21
NW9
G20
NW8
G25
NW11
G20
NW18
G28
NW12
G24
NW17
G28
NW13
G18
NW13
G21
NW13
G23
NW11
G26
NW11
G25
NW9
G21
NW15
G22
NW12
G18
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
NW11
G17
NW14
G24
NW8
G17
N11
G17
N14
G17
N12
G15
N11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI13 mi71 minSE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F45°F69%1012 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI23 mi73 minSE 810.00 miFair58°F39°F50%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
Last 24hrCalmS5CalmCalmCalmNW3N4CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmE5E5SE7SE8SE9SE8SE10SE9SE10SE7
1 day agoW3W4NW5N7NW6--W6NW5W6W7NW4NW4NW5NW4NW8NW8NW3CalmE5SE5SE4SE5SE4S3
2 days agoNW16
G25
NW16
G23
NW14
G21
NW15
G24
NW11NW11
G20
NW14
G19
NW16
G25
NW15
G21
NW15NW14
G22
--NW11NW10NW16
G21
NW14
G25
NW15
G22
NW14
G23
NW14NW13
G18
N11
G17
NW10NW8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.