Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pearl Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:20PM Friday February 28, 2020 5:25 AM EST (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:40AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 307 Am Est Fri Feb 28 2020
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202002282115;;212653 FZUS63 KDTX 280807 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 307 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Strong low pressure, 29.10 inches, over southern Quebec this morning will weaken through the day. High pressure of 30.10 inches will move into the Central Great Lakes over the weekend, providing improved weather conditions. LCZ460-282115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearl Beach, MI
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location: 42.54, -82.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 280755 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 255 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

DISCUSSION.

Ribbon of upper level PV rotating south through the Great Lakes region this morning as large upper level circulation over Eastern Canada has bottomed out and will begin to slowly unravel today. Extremely dry airmass in place (PW under 0.10 inches per 00z DTX sounding) and unfavorable northwest low level flow is not expected to yield much more than flurries across most locations, as NAM soundings indicate a shallow layer (1000 feet) of cape/supersaturation with respect to ice in the 4-5 kft layer, with a lot of sub cloud dry air around. The exception looks to be across the northern Thumb region, where there is a Lake Superior-Lake Michigan-Saginaw Bay connection setting up this afternoon/evening as back door cold front drops south from Lake Huron, as an additional piece of upper level energy rotates through the Central Great Lakes. There is modest concern the main Lake Huron band/convergence could brush the eastern Huron shoreline tonight, potentially leading to accumulations greater than an inch. Airmass does not look much different from yesterday, and thus expecting highs in the mid to upper 20s.

Amplified upper level ridge building into the Western Great Lakes tonight, but it still appears enough low clouds hang around and light northwest winds to keep temps from cratering, and Euro/MAV/MET guidance all suggest mid/upper teens. Although, with the 850 mb warming looking to kick in toward sunrise Saturday, a west to east clearing trend is likely for SAturday. The expected developing insolation should be able to support low/mid 30s for highs.

Warm front lifting through late Saturday night with nothing more than mid/high clouds, setting us up for a mild Sunday with increasing southerly winds, as gusts likely reach 25 mph (per local probabilistic guidance). 925 mb temps climbing into the lower single numbers in the afternoon, certainly supportive of highs well into the 40s.

Early next week, models have trended toward a split flow pattern, with upper level waves mainly remaining separate from each other. The strongest and deepest upper level low looks to track just offshore of the California coast Sunday nigh and does not move through Mexico until Tuesday night, per 00z Euro. For us, it looks like a weak northern stream shortwave trough tracks through on Monday, but slight height rises already occuring on Tuesday before another cold front/shortwave trough arrives on Wednesday. While this occurs, there looks to be another wave and moisture along the central Mississippi River valley which could clip the area, mainly near the southern Michigan border in the Monday night-Tuesday time frame. Even so, thermal profiles profiles look just warm enough to support rain. Additional showers possible on Wednesday ahead of the previous mentioned cold front tracking through, but would not rule out enough cold air arriving to support changeover to snow before precipitation ends.

MARINE.

The Gale and Freezing Spray Warnings for the open waters of Lake Huron will continue into the afternoon, as the pattern remains driven by low pressure over southern Quebec which will gradually fill in and moves northeast today. Although the gale warning is forecasted to expire late in the afternoon, additional snow squalls tonight could produce localized, brief gales over northern Lake Huron. Conditions will dramatically improve for the weekend as high pressure and a milder airmass arrives.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1155 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

AVIATION .

An area of deep low pressure will continue to deepen northeast of Lake Huron eastward through Quebec. This has positioned Southeast Michigan favorably to strong westerly gradient flow. The deep mixed layer will persist tonight, but loss of daytime heating has allow for shallow surface based stability and caused winds to settle down some this evening. Latest satellite trends support some enhanced I 94 corridor convergence. Do not think this will result in precipitation, but earlier thinking of persistent stratocumulus along this corridor has been spot on. For Friday, models show additional strengthening of the upper level low pressure system in Canada. This will result in another day of strong west to northwest winds.

For DTW . Question for tonight centers on clouds as latest satellite suggests some I 94 lake cloud. With flow becoming more laminar tonight will need to watch for cigs within this banding dropping into MVFR. Confidence in that is low attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ049- 054.

Lake Huron . Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . SF AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 7 mi56 min 21°F 32°F1010.6 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 14 mi86 min W 8.9 G 17 21°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.0)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 32 mi56 min 20°F 1009.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 34 mi56 min W 11 G 18 19°F 1009.4 hPa6°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW12
G19
W11
G19
NW15
G28
W17
G22
NW19
G28
W15
G29
W19
G28
W16
G25
W17
G28
W16
G22
W20
G30
W16
G23
W18
G25
W14
G21
W19
G25
W14
G22
W11
G18
W11
G16
W8
G17
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G13
W8
G15
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1 day
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NE20
NE21
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NE23
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N23
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N24
N30
N26
N15
G21
N16
G23
NW12
G23
NW14
G23
NW15
G20
NW16
G22
NW11
G22
NW13
G22
NW10
G19
NW11
G16
NW10
G22
2 days
ago
N16
NE14
NE14
NE11
N14
N14
N17
N18
N22
N18
N21
N21
N23
N26
NE29
NE24
G29
NE24
NE21
NE21
NE17
NE19
NE18
NE19
NE19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI13 mi90 minW 1310.00 miOvercast21°F9°F61%1011.8 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI23 mi33 minW 1210.00 miOvercast21°F10°F62%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW15W16
G24
W14W18
G24
W20
G25
W19
G31
W17
G26
W21
G31
W21
G25
W21
G30
--W20
G27
W16
G30
W17
G26
W16W16
G20
W12W16
G22
W13W17
G23
W9W18
G21
W13W12
1 day agoN12N9N10N8N9N11N13N15N16N12N13N14
G26
N19
G26
NW14NW14
G21
NW15
G23
NW13
G21
NW14NW17
G24
NW14
G23
NW14
G23
NW12
G22
W16
G20
W19
G24
2 days agoN9N11NE9NE7NE7NE10N10N10
G18
N10NE14NE16NE15
G23
N15
G26
N14
G19
N11
G20
N14
G19
N14
G20
N12N11N12N11N13N13N10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.