Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pearl Beach, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:26PM Thursday September 24, 2020 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 2:44PMMoonset 11:46PM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 329 Am Edt Thu Sep 24 2020
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:202009242015;;280857 FZUS63 KDTX 240729 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 329 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure to the south will be forced northeast toward the central Appalachians today as weak low pressure develops along a stalling cold front near The Straits, responsible for some shower activity. A stronger cold front sweeps through on Saturday followed by a strong low pressure system approaching the Great Lakes by Monday. Central pressure will minimize near 29.20 inHg with the system making for a cooler, wetter, and windier environment by next week. LCZ460-242015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pearl Beach, MI
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location: 42.54, -82.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 241007 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 607 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

AVIATION.

VFR conditions are expected today with cirrus thinning with time from KFNT south. Light west to southwest winds will remain generally 10 knots or less (but with a few higher afternoon gusts). Patchy ground fog will dissipate quickly this morning.

For DTW . Potential exists for shallow ground based hz for an hour or two early in the forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 314 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SE MI will remain wedged between two systems today, the first of which is the remnants of Beta now located over Mississippi, projected to travel east into the Carolinas under the influence of strengthening westerly flow, and a second of closer proximity, tied to an advancing shortwave dropping south across the WI/IL. A surface cold front draped across northern Michigan will also sag south into northern lower this morning before stalling out by the afternoon. SE MI remains too far removed from both features and will set up another dry day across the cwa, with the exception of the Tri-Cities and northern portions of the Thumb, given the closer proximity to the better moisture axis along with increasing instability building into the region. Regardless, the atmosphere below the origin of hydrometeor production will be dry and is another limiting factor for today. Little change to the thermal profile will support temperatures highs back into the upper 70s, touching 80s in some spots.

Energetic Pacific jet stream and multiple shortwave features riding along and within the stronger jet will eject across the northern Plains through the end of this week, with subtle ridging expected across the Midwest and Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday. Flow to strengthen and turn more zonal again by the weekend, ahead of the aforementioned upper-level jet, which will reinforce warm air across Michigan Saturday into early Sunday, the warmest of which is projected to travel across SE MI by Sunday morning. This will result in continued above normal temperature trends characterized by temperature highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and associated lows in the 50s to lower 60s, along with an uptick in humidity. If model trends hold and the better waa advects early Sunday morning, this could challenge some minimum high temperature records across KFNT and KMBS. Otherwise, latest model trends have been backing away from rain and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as upper-level flow is oriented a little more zonally compared to prior models, holding a good portion of the shortwave features/low pressure just north of the cwa. A strengthening trough/cold front is still projected to travel across Michigan on Sunday, but qpf amounts have been trending downwards along this feature given the dry atmospheric column in place and limited upper-level support from the lagging shortwave and jet dynamics. Overall, will not completely disregard the cold front feature and will hold chance PoPs on Sunday.

Upper-level troughing is still expected to amplify early next week as a longwave feature sets up over the central and eastern US through the middle and end of next week. Still plenty of tweaks to be made regarding precipitation chances and timing next week as there is a high spread of variance seen between ensemble members regarding the the position and timing of the building trough/ridge couplet on Monday, with then building uncertainty transitioning more for the magnitude of longwave trough amplification Tuesday into Wednesday. Bottom line is that there is convergence amount long range ensembles highlighting the developing trough and thus confidence remains high regarding a quick transition into fall-like weather starting early next week that will be met with below normal temperatures, multiple chances for rain showers, and an uptick in wind speeds and gust potential.

MARINE .

High pressure to the south will be forced northeast toward the central Appalachians today as weak low pressure develops along a stalling cold front near The Straits. The bulk of the associated showers will occur over the open waters of Lake Huron, although some activity is possible as far south as Saginaw Bay during the afternoon. Winds back southeasterly with low speeds during this time, then drift toward the south with drier weather during the day Friday. A stronger cold front arrives on Saturday bringing gusty showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the central Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Saginaw Bay and parts of southern Lake Huron as waves occasionally reach 4 feet with increased gradient winds. After the front clears east, a cooling trend will ensue with daily chances for showers and breezier fall- like conditions. A strong low pressure system may lead to additional marine hazards Monday into Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . AM MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 7 mi49 min 70°F 65°F1015.3 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 8 mi19 min SW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F1 ft1014.2 hPa (+0.8)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 14 mi19 min WSW 2.9 G 8 72°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 32 mi49 min 73°F 1013.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 34 mi49 min WSW 6 G 8.9 72°F 1013.6 hPa59°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI13 mi23 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F59°F61%1015.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI23 mi26 minW 910.00 miFair74°F55°F54%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTC

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E5W9W8W6SW3SW3SW3SW3SW4SW4W5W4CalmSW4SW5W5SW5W5SW6W6W7SW7
1 day agoCalmSE8SE8SE9S7S7SW6S5S6SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW8CalmE6
2 days agoS7SE10SE10
G16
E10SE12SE12SE8SE6SE6E3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map


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