Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday July 16, 2020 11:57 AM CDT (16:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:05AMMoonset 4:59PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Am Cdt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering south late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:202007162200;;941227 FZUS53 KMKX 161606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-162200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams Bay, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 161119 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 619 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020

UPDATE.

No change to the forecast for today.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

Ceiling heights continue to be up and down, generally between 500 and 2200 feet with patches of clear sky. Wherever the sky is clear, then fog is developing early this morning. We will even out to stratocumulus clouds with a VFR base by late morning and skies should start to clear out by mid afternoon as drier high pressure works into the region.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 324 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Friday . Forecast Confidence is High.

Low stratus clouds have overspread nearly all of southern WI early this morning. We will start to see clouds break apart later this morning and then have mostly sunny skies this afternoon once dry high pressure has a chance to build into the region. Inland high temperatures will be in the lower 80s today.

Southerly flow will help bring dewpoints up tonight and Friday. Low temperatures tonight should bottom out in the lower 60s. Temperatures will be a little more toasty on Friday, with highs reaching into the upper 80s. We should have some mixing with a steady southwest breeze Friday afternoon, so dewpoints could moderate into the mid 60s and keep heat indices down to around 90 or lower.

LONG TERM .

Friday night through Sunday . Confidence is Medium.

The surface high that was over the region earlier in the day quickly shifts east in response to a system moving into the northern plains. Increasing WAA will start to bring 70 degree dewpoints northward as we head into the weekend. There are some model differences for Saturday morning in how they handle the system moving over northern MN/WI. There will likely be an MCS ongoing Friday night into Saturday morning over northern MN/WI as the system moves east but whether or not any of that could drop south remains in question. Corfidi vectors and much of the midlevel flow is orientated more west to east and the system does appear to be lifting northeastward. So, the better forcing would stay north. However, there is some suggestion that we could see a secondary MCS develop over NE/IA along the increasing WAA and that could allow for some activity to spill into southern WI Saturday morning. Any instability for Saturday morning would be elevated due the surface temps lagging behind the increasing WAA aloft. Will wait for subsequent model runs before making too many changes to Saturday morning.

For Saturday itself, no matter how you slice it, it's going to be unpleasant with highs in the 90s. Dewpoints could likely reach into the mid 70s as a result of moisture advection and evapotranspiration from crops. This will push Heat Index values into the upper 90s to lower 100's! Any morning showers/storms could impact temps to some degree but strong W/SW flow and WAA will bring in the heat. These winds are also going to keep any lake breeze anchored over the lake, so no reprieve from that. While the current numbers are below any Heat headlines, the fact that we have mid 70 degree dewpoints may not allow temps overnight to drop much and that could warrant heat headlines since people won't be able to cool off that much overnight.

The focus then turns to another system moving across northern MN/WI Saturday afternoon/evening. Expect widespread storms to develop well north of the region but evolve into a MCS that drops S/SE into the region late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Instability of 3,000+ J/kg looks likely, wind shear will be close to 30kts and these would favor damaging winds with hail also a threat. A strong LLJ ahead of the incoming MCS will keep hodographs curved enough that any bowing segments of the MCS could support brief spin ups. The best chances for severe weather is going to over central to south-central WI but there any mesoscale influences from previous storms could change the threat area.

Any storm chances on Sunday will depend on just how far south the MCS and frontal boundary make it. Right now most guidance puts the front into northern IL and would suggest more limited storm chances. But with winds still out of the W/SW aloft, temps well above normal are expected with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Dewpoints drop a bit so the humidity won't be quite as bad but it's still going to be an uncomfortable day.

Sunday night through Wednesday . Confidence is Medium.

A flatter upper ridge and more zonal flow across the northern US to start next week will lead to a more active period of weather. We'll have a couple chances for storms each day as little ripples in the flow move through the region. A stronger wave is progged to move through Tuesday at some point, some differences in timing still exist. But another round of a few stronger storms look possible with this system. Then we'll see a break from the heat and humidity as high pressure builds over northern WI, keeping us under a more northerly flow and drier regime. This pattern should hold through Thursday.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Stratus is expanding across all of southern WI early this morning. Ceilings are anywhere between 400 and 1400 ft and there are still pockets of clear skies. Wherever there are clear skies, there is a risk of dense fog developing this morning. We will see clouds break apart later this morning and then plenty of sunshine this afternoon with dry high pressure in place.

MARINE .

Winds are northerly in the wake of a front today. We can expect higher waves in the far southern part of the lake. High pressure will give us light and variable winds tonight through Friday. Increasing southerly winds will build higher waves across Lake Michigan on Saturday, with a diminishing trend on Sunday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Cronce Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Cronce Friday THROUGH Wednesday . Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 37 mi117 min N 13 G 16 70°F 1016.9 hPa
45187 38 mi57 min NNE 9.7 G 16 70°F 71°F3 ft
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 45 mi47 min NNE 7 G 8.9 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI14 mi82 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F81%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6CalmS6S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.