Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:22PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 7:35 AM CST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:34PMMoonset 6:21AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Am Cst Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Today..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Scattered snow showers in the morning, then isolated snow showers late in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest early in the afternoon, then easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the evening, then backing south after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear through around midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912101700;;140017 FZUS53 KMKX 101306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-101700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams Bay, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 101152 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 552 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

UPDATE.

Light snow showers continue to fall across parts of southern Wisconsin and could continue for another few hours before clouds start to scatter and push out. After this, we will see partly cloudy to mostly clear skies the rest of the day.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS).

Light snow and MVFR clouds should continue into this morning before clouds begin to push out to the east and scatter. By noon, we will expect mostly clear skies throughout southern Wisconsin with mostly clear skies expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Otherwise winds will remain somewhat breezy from the west through the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 334 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Today through Tomorrow . Forecast Confidence is High .

Mostly dry period is expected with clouds and light snow/flurries expected to push out this morning leaving mostly sunny conditions through the period. There is a slight chance that a weak low brings some light precip to the southwestern parts of the CWA Wednesday morning. The forcing for this feature will be primarily in the low to mid levels with lots of WAA, partially due to a fairly strong LLJ. However, the main forcing looks likely to remain to the southwest, thus likely keeping us dry.

Otherwise temperatures will become quite chilly with 850 temps around -16 C. This will allow highs to only reach around low to upper teens with overnight lows falling to the low to mid single digits with some areas possibly falling below zero. In addition we should see wind chills into the negative single digits, possibly reaching the negative teens further north.

LONG TERM .

Wednesday Night through Thursday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

Cold temperatures with lows in the upper single digits to low teens will continue Wednesday night as high pressure slowly shifts eastward. As a mid-level shortwave trough works its way into the upper Midwest Thursday, expect southerly flow to return to southern WI, which will warm things up into the 30s Thursday afternoon.

As the shortwave pushes through WI, the associated 500mb DCVA combined with a swath of 850mb WAA and 700mb frontogenesis should be enough to support precipitation across central and northern WI Thursday morning/afternoon. Although it will be warmer, the freezing line is progged to bisect our CWA and snow will likely be the primary mode of precipitation north of I-94 on Thursday. However, the better snow chances look to be north of our CWA, but our northern counties could still see some light accumulations. Otherwise, areas generally south of I-94 will see little to no precipitaion given the current model trends.

Thursday Night through Monday . Forecast Confidence: Medium .

This system will quickly move out by Thursday night and quiet conditions are expected on Friday with warmer temperatures topping off in the upper 30 and low 40s. However, an upper-level trough will dig across the center CONUS and a surface low is expected to develop across the Central Plains late Friday. As this system pushes eastward toward the lower Great Lakes region, it is progged to deepen. The GFS is being a bit more bullish on this system's strength, but the 00z GFS/ECMWF align pretty well with the surface low's track across northern half of IL. This could set southern WI up for some snow/wintry precipitation Saturday. Then high pressure and colder temperatures are expected to build in behind that system for the later half of the weekend and for the start of the next work week.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS) .

Cigs of 1.5-3 kft will gradually become scattered through early this morning. VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds will remain somewhat breezy from the west/northwest but will gradually decrease through the day today as higher pressure pushes in.

MARINE .

Breezy west/northwest winds will continue this morning, with winds slowly weakening through the day as higher pressure pushes in. Mostly light northwest winds Wednesday with some breeziness. Light winds overnight into Thursday morning before winds will pick up from the south as a weak low pressure pushes in with some winds approaching gales possible for short period in the afternoon.

Otherwise we have a small craft out through 12z for the northern nearshore areas with the southern nearshore small craft extended through 15z. The arrival of a much colder airmass will also lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LMZ643>646.



Update . ARK Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . ARK Wednesday THROUGH Monday . Wagner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 37 mi35 min W 11 G 17 19°F 1016.3 hPa (+3.8)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI14 mi40 minW 9 G 1510.00 miLight Snow17°F12°F80%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4SW6SW8SW8SW8W8
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1 day agoS12
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SW11SW12SW8SW6SW5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS7S9S7S9
G15
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S8S7S6S5CalmS5S6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.