Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams Bay, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251813 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Shortwave trough over KS will slowly deamplify as it approaches srn WI and nrn IL, and then move across the area on Tue. Little warm advection with this event with the exception of warm advection at the jet level this evening into the overnight along with persistent PVA. Thus best upper dynamics with this system are tnt into Tue AM with weaker PVA and lift afterward. In addition, a band of 850-600 mb frontogenesis will shift nwd through the area tnt into Tue AM, strongest over se WI. LES enhancement and onshore wind gusts of 30 kts is the biggest concern of this system. May have to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for some of the lake counties given the combo of snow amounts and blowing snow. The Winter Wx headlines inland may not change.

Gehring

SHORT TERM. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Today through Tuesday:

Patchy dense fog and freezing fog over parts of the area seems to have dissipated for the most part per nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. There still may be some that forms in localized areas into the morning hours, which could lead to locally reduced visibility values and slick spots on roads.

00z deterministic models and ensembles have shifted the track of the 500 mb shortwave trough/differential CVA and 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response for this evening into Tuesday northward. Area forecast soundings are generally showing a deep saturated air column tapping the elevated dendrite growth zone. Thus, they are bringing more of the swath of accumulating snow northward into the forecast area.

In addition, persistent east northeast flow off of Lake Michigan with favorable delta T values should bring some lake enhancement to locations near the lake during this time. This fetch becomes more northeast later Tuesday, which is more ideal for lake enhancement. Lake effect snow chart suggests some decent potential for higher amounts there, so added additional QPF in areas near the lake.

Snowfall amounts for this evening into Tuesday are very close to the 50th percentile per Model Certainty. They are also near the 50th percentile per PWPF/WPC in the southern parts of the area and near the lake. The northern parts of the area reflects more of the 25th percentile per PWPF/WPC, which indicates some lingering uncertainty with where the sharp cutoff of snowfall amounts will set up.

Given the shift northward with the snowfall amounts, along with the gusty east northeast winds expected, issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight into Tuesday for the southern half of the area, along with the far northeast counties near Lake Michigan. Some blowing snow is expected with the gusty winds. This will impact the Tuesday morning commute across the area with snow covered and slick roads, along with reduced visibility.

Some lingering uncertainty will be how far north the sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts set up, as well as if the deterministic models and ensembles maintain this storm track, and how much lake enhancement will occur near the lake. Areas toward the far southeast and near Lake Michigan would have the best shot at seeing snowfall amounts reach or exceed warning criteria. Will message this along with the higher confidence for the snowfall amounts.

Wood

LONG TERM. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Tuesday night through Sunday:

As our system begins to pivot eastward, it will setup a decent fetch of winds along Lake Michigan, such that we could see some lake effect snows continue into Wednesday morning. The main focus for any additional snow would be in the Racine and Kenosha lakeshore. By sunrise Wednesday, the winds turn more northerly, and best convergence and temp differential shifts southward into the Chicago area. They may end up with a more prolonged period of lake effect than what we see. Expect the lake effect snow to start winding down on Wednesday.

Previous models were trying to bring a secondary round of QPF through the region, as an upper trough swings through, but at this point drier air looks to win out and any precip other than the lake effect will stay south.

High pressure builds south Wed/Thu, and with the fresh snow pack we can expect temps to plummet. Lows into the single digits are likely for much of the area, but wouldn't be surprised to see values dip below zero for our western areas. Winds gradually turn to the south Thu/Fri as the high shifts eastward. Some warming in temps is expected as we head into the weekend. But another night of lows in the single digits is expected for Thu Night into Friday morning.

Over the weekend, an amplified trough impacting the western US kicks east, and will bring much of the central US a round of precip. Decent amount of spread in guidance on how this evolves, with some keeping the trough intact and resulting in higher QPF amounts. Others split the system and have a weaker low as it crosses the central US.

We'll be watching this closely, since winds before it moves out of the Rockies will be increasing out of the south, pulling gulf moisture northward. The system will have a decent amount of moisture to work with, and it will just depend on overall track on what kind of impacts we could expect. Stay tuned.

Stumpf

AVIATION. (Issued 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Cigs of 1-3 kft over se WI and nrn IL will slowly expand nnwwd toward central WI through the evening. Light to mdt snow will expand from south to north during the evening into the overnight hours as well. Snow will continue for much of Tue, heavier over far ern WI due to lake enhancement. Vsbys will range from 1/2-1SM for much of the area once the snow begins but areas of 1/4SM snow are possible for the lake counties. Nely wind gusts of 30kt for the lake counties will result in blowing snowfall and aid in the possibility of 1/4SM snow. Still some blowing snow for inland locations with nely wind gusts of 20-25 kts.

Gehring

MARINE. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Low pressure is forecast to move from central Oklahoma to southern Missouri today, then across the Ohio River Valley tonight and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with the exact low track.

However, northeast winds are expected to increase over Lake Michigan today and remain gusty tonight into Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon into later Tuesday night, for gusty winds and building waves. This may need to be extended into Wednesday south of North Point Lighthouse, for lingering high waves.

Northeast gales are likely tonight into early Tuesday morning over the southern third of the Lake Michigan open waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for this area. Waves will build during this period as well.

Gusty north to northeast winds will likely linger Tuesday night into Thursday across the lake. Gusty south winds may develop across the lake Saturday into Sunday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069 . 6 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 . 6 PM Monday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060 . 9 PM Monday to 6 PM Tuesday.

LM . Gale Warning . LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878 . 6 PM Monday to 3 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	37 mi	25 min	NE 24 G 27	31°F			1014.2 hPa (-4.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL	39 mi	85 min	ENE 21 G 23	32°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	45 mi	35 min	NE 20 G 22	31°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI	14 mi	30 min	NNE 14 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	27°F	23°F	83%	1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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