Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Williams Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:00PM Monday January 25, 2021 2:25 PM CST (20:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 5:52AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 108 Pm Cst Mon Jan 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Rest of today..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of flurries through the day. Slight chance of rain late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind up to 30 knots. Snow. Waves 7 to 9 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast wind up to 30 knots easing to 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon backing north late in the afternoon. Snow. Waves 7 to 9 feet.
Tuesday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming north 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Snow likely through around midnight, then chance of snow after midnight. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202101252300;;478274 FZUS53 KMKX 251908 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 108 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-252300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams Bay, WI
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location: 42.55, -88.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 251813 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1213 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Shortwave trough over KS will slowly deamplify as it approaches srn WI and nrn IL, and then move across the area on Tue. Little warm advection with this event with the exception of warm advection at the jet level this evening into the overnight along with persistent PVA. Thus best upper dynamics with this system are tnt into Tue AM with weaker PVA and lift afterward. In addition, a band of 850-600 mb frontogenesis will shift nwd through the area tnt into Tue AM, strongest over se WI. LES enhancement and onshore wind gusts of 30 kts is the biggest concern of this system. May have to upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for some of the lake counties given the combo of snow amounts and blowing snow. The Winter Wx headlines inland may not change.

Gehring

SHORT TERM. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Today through Tuesday:

Patchy dense fog and freezing fog over parts of the area seems to have dissipated for the most part per nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. There still may be some that forms in localized areas into the morning hours, which could lead to locally reduced visibility values and slick spots on roads.

00z deterministic models and ensembles have shifted the track of the 500 mb shortwave trough/differential CVA and 850 mb to 700 mb frontogenesis response for this evening into Tuesday northward. Area forecast soundings are generally showing a deep saturated air column tapping the elevated dendrite growth zone. Thus, they are bringing more of the swath of accumulating snow northward into the forecast area.

In addition, persistent east northeast flow off of Lake Michigan with favorable delta T values should bring some lake enhancement to locations near the lake during this time. This fetch becomes more northeast later Tuesday, which is more ideal for lake enhancement. Lake effect snow chart suggests some decent potential for higher amounts there, so added additional QPF in areas near the lake.

Snowfall amounts for this evening into Tuesday are very close to the 50th percentile per Model Certainty. They are also near the 50th percentile per PWPF/WPC in the southern parts of the area and near the lake. The northern parts of the area reflects more of the 25th percentile per PWPF/WPC, which indicates some lingering uncertainty with where the sharp cutoff of snowfall amounts will set up.

Given the shift northward with the snowfall amounts, along with the gusty east northeast winds expected, issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight into Tuesday for the southern half of the area, along with the far northeast counties near Lake Michigan. Some blowing snow is expected with the gusty winds. This will impact the Tuesday morning commute across the area with snow covered and slick roads, along with reduced visibility.

Some lingering uncertainty will be how far north the sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts set up, as well as if the deterministic models and ensembles maintain this storm track, and how much lake enhancement will occur near the lake. Areas toward the far southeast and near Lake Michigan would have the best shot at seeing snowfall amounts reach or exceed warning criteria. Will message this along with the higher confidence for the snowfall amounts.

Wood

LONG TERM. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Tuesday night through Sunday:

As our system begins to pivot eastward, it will setup a decent fetch of winds along Lake Michigan, such that we could see some lake effect snows continue into Wednesday morning. The main focus for any additional snow would be in the Racine and Kenosha lakeshore. By sunrise Wednesday, the winds turn more northerly, and best convergence and temp differential shifts southward into the Chicago area. They may end up with a more prolonged period of lake effect than what we see. Expect the lake effect snow to start winding down on Wednesday.

Previous models were trying to bring a secondary round of QPF through the region, as an upper trough swings through, but at this point drier air looks to win out and any precip other than the lake effect will stay south.

High pressure builds south Wed/Thu, and with the fresh snow pack we can expect temps to plummet. Lows into the single digits are likely for much of the area, but wouldn't be surprised to see values dip below zero for our western areas. Winds gradually turn to the south Thu/Fri as the high shifts eastward. Some warming in temps is expected as we head into the weekend. But another night of lows in the single digits is expected for Thu Night into Friday morning.

Over the weekend, an amplified trough impacting the western US kicks east, and will bring much of the central US a round of precip. Decent amount of spread in guidance on how this evolves, with some keeping the trough intact and resulting in higher QPF amounts. Others split the system and have a weaker low as it crosses the central US.

We'll be watching this closely, since winds before it moves out of the Rockies will be increasing out of the south, pulling gulf moisture northward. The system will have a decent amount of moisture to work with, and it will just depend on overall track on what kind of impacts we could expect. Stay tuned.

Stumpf

AVIATION. (Issued 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Cigs of 1-3 kft over se WI and nrn IL will slowly expand nnwwd toward central WI through the evening. Light to mdt snow will expand from south to north during the evening into the overnight hours as well. Snow will continue for much of Tue, heavier over far ern WI due to lake enhancement. Vsbys will range from 1/2-1SM for much of the area once the snow begins but areas of 1/4SM snow are possible for the lake counties. Nely wind gusts of 30kt for the lake counties will result in blowing snowfall and aid in the possibility of 1/4SM snow. Still some blowing snow for inland locations with nely wind gusts of 20-25 kts.

Gehring

MARINE. (Issued 423 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021)

Low pressure is forecast to move from central Oklahoma to southern Missouri today, then across the Ohio River Valley tonight and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with the exact low track.

However, northeast winds are expected to increase over Lake Michigan today and remain gusty tonight into Tuesday.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this afternoon into later Tuesday night, for gusty winds and building waves. This may need to be extended into Wednesday south of North Point Lighthouse, for lingering high waves.

Northeast gales are likely tonight into early Tuesday morning over the southern third of the Lake Michigan open waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for this area. Waves will build during this period as well.

Gusty north to northeast winds will likely linger Tuesday night into Thursday across the lake. Gusty south winds may develop across the lake Saturday into Sunday.

Wood

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069 . 6 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 . 6 PM Monday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060 . 9 PM Monday to 6 PM Tuesday.

LM . Gale Warning . LMZ080-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878 . 6 PM Monday to 3 AM Tuesday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 37 mi25 min NE 24 G 27 31°F 1014.2 hPa (-4.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 39 mi85 min ENE 21 G 23 32°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 45 mi35 min NE 20 G 22 31°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI14 mi30 minNNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast27°F23°F83%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUU

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N4N3NW5NW5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N5NE9NE9NE10NE15
G23
1 day agoW3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE5SE5SE6SE7SE5SE8S7S5S4S5CalmS6S8SW5W4W8
2 days agoNW11NW9W3SW3SW3CalmSW3W3W4CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW3SW4SW3SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.