Friday, November27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sunset Bay, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:46PM Friday November 27, 2020 11:20 PM EST (04:20 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 4:29AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202011280400;;498754 Fzus51 Kbuf 272345 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 644 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-280400- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 644 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest less than 10 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sunset Bay, NY
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location: 42.56, -79.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 280305 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1005 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. The passage of a weak cold front late tonight will support scattered rain showers while also introducing a little chillier air for Saturday. High pressure passing to our south on Sunday will then support a wealth of sunshine to end our weekend while allowing temperatures to rebound to above normal levels. Conditions will then significantly deteriorate for the start of the new work week . as a large storm system will spread a soaking rain over our region on Monday with accumulating snows possible in the lake snow belts Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Light rain has increased recently east of Lake Ontario with weak lake enhancement off Lake Ontario. A few showers are also closing in on western NY tied to shortwave crossing the lower Great Lakes. Expect showers to increase rest of the night with the greatest chances after late this evening to the east and southeast of the lakes where west-southwest flow and H85 temps -3c to -4c will provide just enough over-water instability for lake enhanced showers given water temps of 46-47F (+8C). Becomes cold enough near sfc later tonight for potential for snow to mix with the rain showers across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

Still some mixed rain and snow showers around on Saturday morning especially east of the lakes as it becomes even colder aloft, but these will taper off all areas by mid afternoon with arrival of low-level ridging. Clouds will also decrease from west to east, though they look to hang on even toward sunset east of Lake Ontario. Temps on Saturday will be cooler compared to recent days with afternoon readings in the mid to upper 30s for the higher terrain, and in the low to maybe mid 40s for the lake plains and other lower elevation locations.

High pressure passing by to our south Saturday night promises to provide us with fair dry weather.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Axis to the mid-level ridge will continue east across the Great Lakes Sunday before entering New England Sunday night. Through its eastward progression, associated surface high pressure will also advance east across the region before entering the Atlantic. With the high pressure overhead, expect dry weather throughout Sunday and the earlier portions of Sunday night.

Meanwhile, further downstream aloft in the mid-levels a sharpening trough over the northern Plains and a low pressure center over the southern Mississippi Valley will have begun to interact with each other by Sunday morning. These two systems will continue to mingle and eventually phase together to create a digging trough Monday.

At the surface, weak low pressure associated with the southern stream system aloft will lie across the lower Mississippi Valley Sunday. As the two features aloft phase together, this surface low will deepen as it accelerates northeast along or just west of the ridge of the Appalachians. Bountiful amounts of moisture along with strong forcing will be associated with this system which will allow for close to a 12 hour period of steady rain. That said, rainfall totals may add up to near or little over an inch. With the main area of precipitation on Monday, precipitation will remain all liquid as southerly flow will keep filtering warm air into the region. Aside from a prolonged period of rain Monday, higher winds may also be possible, though this will depend on the exact track of the low. Most recent model guidance packages, track the center of the low overhead which will make a weaker solution. However, if the low tracks just a tad further west of the area higher winds will not be out of the question.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The closed low aloft and its associated surface low will become vertically stacked and slowly weaken while rotating somewhere over southern Ontario and southeastern Quebec Tuesday through Wednesday. That said, the region will be in a more showery regime with some dry periods at times especially for locations outside any influences from the lakes. Additionally, cold air will filter in across the region from the west, where enough cold air will be in place to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Temperatures across the lower terrain may warm up enough to switch precipitation to rain, whereas temperatures across the higher terrain will remain cold enough to keep all precipitation in the form of snow. Therefore for those locations across the higher terrain, accumulating snowfall is likely, though it is too far out to pinpoint down any exact snow accumulations this far out.

Model guidances continue to hint at that the main closed upper low will pull away to the north/northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak low-level flow is not helping to clear out the low clouds which will reside in the MVFR to lower VFR range through the night. Lowest cigs, still likely staying just above IFR at least for prevailing conditions, will be over higher terrain late, including JHW. Scattered showers for rest of the night, especially east and southeast of the lakes. Enough cold air late tonight that some snow may mix with the rain over higher terrain.

MVFR cigs Saturday morning will improve to VFR levels for the midday and afternoon . while sfc winds will freshen with gusts to 25 kts possible in the afternoon northeast of Lake Erie at BUF and IAG.

Outlook . Saturday night and Sunday . VFR. Monday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for rain and snow showers. Wednesday . VFR/MVFR with the chance for rain and snow showers.

MARINE. Winds and waves on Lake Erie briefly subside into the overnight, but will increase again by daybreak on Saturday in wake of cold front working across the region. Have now extended our Small Craft on Lake Erie through around daybreak on Sunday. Also looking likely we will need additional Small Craft Advisories later Saturday into Saturday night for majority of the remaining marine zones, except the Niagara River.

Moderate to fresh breezes will linger across the Lower Great Lakes into the day Sunday, as high pressure will pass by to our south.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 10 mi50 min 45°F 1015.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 13 mi80 min WSW 23 G 28 46°F 1014.8 hPa (-1.2)
45142 - Port Colborne 15 mi140 min W 16 G 19 46°F 49°F5 ft1015.5 hPa (-0.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 25 mi50 min 45°F 47°F1015.8 hPa23°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 36 mi50 min 45°F 1015.6 hPa
NREP1 41 mi110 min 45°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY9 mi27 minWSW 69.00 miLight Rain45°F39°F83%1016 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.