Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Farnham, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:24AMSunset 8:03PM Monday April 19, 2021 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202104192115;;802464 Fzus51 Kbuf 191719 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 119 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-192115- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 119 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
This afternoon..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farnham, NY
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location: 42.57, -79.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 192114 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 514 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Isolated showers over mainly Finger Lakes eastward will give way to more showers across the whole region beginning later this evening as a cold front moves into the area through early Tuesday. More importantly, this cold front will signal the beginning of a change to unseasonably cold weather. Low pressure will pass just south of the region later Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, producing widespread accumulating snow across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Radar imagery showing isolated showers drifting east from the western Southern Tier eastward across the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes in response to diurnal instability and weak forcing from a passing mid level shortwave as well as increased low-level convergence on edge of Lake Erie shadowing. Southwest flow off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario has resulted in expanding stable lake shadows northeast of both lakes, lowering the risk of showers there except for a few sprinkles well inland east of Lake Ontario. Any showers over inland areas will end early this evening as the weak shortwave moves east and diurnal heating ends.

A strong mid level closed low will then move from near Lake Superior this evening to western Quebec Tuesday, with a nearly vertically stacked surface low taking a similar track. The trailing cold front will enter Western NY late this evening, then progress to the eastern Lake Ontario region by late tonight. Large scale forcing supporting the front will weaken with time and eastern extent as the mid level trough moves northeast into Quebec. The slope of the frontal zone and layout of large scale features will force the front to become increasingly anabatic, with the majority of the rain showers falling along and behind the cold front, essentially what is already occurring upstream over the central Great Lakes.

Expect a widespread band of rain to spread eastward across Western NY later this evening, reaching the Genesee Valley by around midnight, then spreading into the eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight. The rain will diminish in coverage and intensity by later tonight as forcing weakens, with just a few light showers left by daybreak Tuesday. Latest model guidance has trended a little faster in moving the front east and ending the rain Tuesday, with the rain ending in Buffalo and Rochester by around daybreak. There will still be a few leftover showers in the morning from the western Southern Tier eastward through the Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region, but these showers should end by midday. Clouds will linger over most of the area Tuesday as the frontal zone stalls nearby across PA. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front, with highs only in the 40s in most areas.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. A late season accumulating snowfall event continues to appear more and more likely later Tuesday night through Wednesday across most of the region. A mid level trough will dig and sharpen into the upper Midwest late Tuesday, then reach the central Great Lakes Wednesday. DPVA and flow adjustments downstream of the digging trough will force a strong baroclinic wave to develop along a stalled frontal zone over the Ohio Valley, with the resulting surface low tracking from the Ohio Valley Tuesday night to southern New England by Wednesday afternoon. A shield of widespread precipitation will be forced by strong frontogenesis and differential temperature advection to the north of the low track, with an added boost of strong DPVA ahead of the digging trough. Model guidance continues to converge on a common solution, but there are still enough differences in low track and frontal position to yield some uncertainty with the forecast. The NAM remains on the northern edge of the guidance envelope, with the GFS/ECMWF farther south.

Tuesday evening will start dry, then light precipitation will develop from southwest to northeast from late evening through the early overnight. Colder air will still be in the process of filtering into the region on low level northerly flow, so this initial light precipitation may be a rain/snow mix. Late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning frontogenesis will intensify as the baroclinic wave reaches our longitude, resulting in a period of moderate or even marginally heavy precipitation. The combination of ongoing cold advection, cooling from melting processes, and wet bulbing of the column will cool the atmosphere sufficiently to change all the precipitation to snow. Forecast soundings continue to suggest there may be a narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet near the rain/snow transition line, but if the farther south model solutions verify this may end up just south of the NY/PA border.

The ground is warm in the second half of April, so that will initially inhibit snow accumulation. Snowfall rate is the key to accumulation at this time of year, if it snows hard enough the snow can overcome the warm surface and cover the ground. Once the ground is covered, the warm ground becomes irrelevant with an insulating layer of snow between the ground and new snow accumulation on top. Given the strong forcing in this case, we expect the warm ground to be overcome for a window from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning when snowfall rates are greatest.

Initial first guess accumulations are 2-5" for lower elevations and 4-6" for higher terrain. These numbers may change with future changes in model guidance. The expected accumulation is below watch/warning criteria, but nonetheless this may have a notable impact to travel, especially around the Wednesday morning commute. The heavy/wet nature of the snow may also result in a few isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs.

The widespread snow will taper off quickly from west to east Wednesday afternoon, to be replaced by a few snow showers as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes in the afternoon. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will become more widespread Wednesday night through Thursday morning as the pool of coldest air aloft crosses the region. Northwest flow will direct most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. All of this may produce localized additional accumulations of 1-3" Wednesday night through Thursday morning in the most persistent bands. The snow showers will become more scattered in nature and focused over the land by Thursday afternoon before finally ending later Thursday night as high pressure starts to build towards the eastern Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Upper level ridging late Thursday night through Friday night will promote mainly dry conditions. Looking into the weekend, a shortwave will kick out in front of the next upper level trough Friday night. This trough will support a low to form over the western Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Attached to said low, a frontal boundary will approach and eventually cross the area late Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Therefore, have increasing chances for rain showers Saturday, though the morning looks to remain dry. The best chances and likelihood of showers will arrive into the area late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The frontal passage should be exiting the region Sunday which will decrease chances for showers from west to east. By Monday, upper level ridging will support an area of surface high pressure and bringing back dry weather to the area.

Otherwise, upper level ridging and surface high pressure Friday will support warm air advection into the region and allow temperatures to rise up into the mid to upper 50s Friday and upper 50s and low 60s Saturday. A brief interlude of cool temperatures on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 50s due to the passage of the frontal boundary the night prior. Temperatures will then rebound into the mid to upper 50s on Monday.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR will prevail through early this evening. Diurnal cumulus will continue along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. A few scattered showers will also continue, mainly from the Southern Tier eastward across the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes, with mainly VFR VSBY/CIGS in these showers.

The diurnal cumulus and any remaining scattered showers will end early this evening. A cold front will then enter Western NY by late evening, spreading east to the eastern Lake Ontario region by late tonight. A band of rain along and behind the cold front will spread east across the area from late evening through the overnight, with areas of MVFR VSBY developing in the steadier rainfall. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR behind the cold front, with IFR most likely across higher terrain and MVFR favored at lower elevations.

The rain will taper off late tonight and Tuesday morning from northwest to southeast. Lingering MVFR/IFR CIGS in the morning will improve to mainly VFR in the afternoon with a veil of mid/high clouds remaining across the eastern Great Lakes to the north of the departing cold front.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night . VFR deteriorating to widespread IFR late with snow developing. Wednesday . Widespread IFR in snow, improving to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon as snow ends from west to east. Wednesday night and Thursday . MVFR/local IFR with scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Windy. Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Relatively light winds will continue through this evening on Lakes Erie and Ontario. A cold front will then cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, with westerly winds increasing behind the cold front. Winds may increase enough to produce a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions later tonight on Lake Erie, and late tonight through Tuesday on Lake Ontario. Winds will then diminish Tuesday evening.

Low pressure is then forecast to move east across Pennsylvania late Tuesday night to New England by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will become northeast and increase Tuesday night as this low approaches, then become northwest and increase further Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as cold air pours into the eastern Great Lakes behind the departing low. A long period of Small Craft Advisory conditions is expected on Lakes Erie and Ontario from Wednesday through Friday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042- 043. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 9 mi51 min 51°F 1008.1 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 15 mi21 min SW 11 G 12 53°F 1008 hPa (-1.2)
45142 - Port Colborne 16 mi21 min WSW 9.7 G 12 48°F 42°F1 ft1008 hPa (-1.2)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 24 mi51 min W 1.9 G 2.9 49°F 51°F1006.8 hPa40°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 35 mi51 min 57°F 1007.6 hPa
NREP1 43 mi111 min W 8 G 12 59°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY11 mi28 minW 1010.00 miFair61°F34°F36%1008.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9SW7SW7SW4SW6W3SW3S3SW4S3S5S7S6S8S8SW11
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1 day agoW8SW12SW8SW6SW4SW7SW6SW9SW7SW7SW5SW7SW6SW5SW6W10SW7SW7W6W8W105W7W7
2 days agoW8
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W8W8W7W7W5W5W4SW3W4W5W3W3CalmW33W6W9W11W9W12W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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