Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Essex, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:05PM Saturday March 28, 2020 5:00 PM EDT (21:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 416 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Monday morning...
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain this evening, then rain likely after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Patchy fog. Scattered showers.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night through Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will approach the waters tonight into Sun, bringing rain. A cold front will slide through late on Sun into Mon. Low pressure developing on this front east of the waters and will slowly move east through Tuesday. Another low pressure will pass well south of the waters on Wednesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Essex, MA
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location: 42.58, -70.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 281954 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 354 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain will overspread southern New England tonight into Sunday, then continue at times into early Monday morning as a secondary low pressure develops just to our south. Weather pattern remains unsettled and cloudy for much of the upcoming week, with seasonably cooler temperatures. Intervals of scattered rain and/or snow showers Monday into Tuesday, with light snow coatings possible in the higher terrain. Still monitoring a potential coastal low Wednesday into part of Friday whose impact to Southern New England will depend on storm track. Periods of rain/wet snow would be possible, with little if any impact if the storm tracks further offshore.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Looking at a fairly common spring-time pattern developing tonight. Expecting a cutoff mid level low to move from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes overnight. At the surface, high pressure moves farther offshore, resulting in an onshore flow. In between these two features, at least some weak lift is favored. This should lead to a widespread rainfall, eventually. Abundant low level dry air will need to be overcome before any rainfall reaches the ground. Had some reports earlier this afternoon of some ice pellets, due to evaporational cooling. With surface dewpoint depressions still about 20-30 degrees, it will be a while longer before appreciable rainfall reaches the ground.

As for timing, it will really depend upon where one is located. The western half of southern New England should see rainfall developing between now and 7 PM, with the eastern half of southern New England seeing the rain develop between 7 PM and midnight Sunday.

Above normal low temperatures expected with the clouds already In place, and only getting lower and thicker.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Cutoff low should move from the Great Lakes to New England during this time. Most of the 28/12Z guidance suggests a secondary surface low pressure develops just to our south, then lingers Sunday night into Monday. While this should mean plenty of ascent to generate rainfall, the amount of available moisture is not so certain. Precipitable water values start out 3-4 standard deviations above normal Sunday, then drop off to near normal Sunday night. Expectation is for widespread rain to become more showery in nature, with perhaps a persistent drizzle developing beneath the drier air aloft.

Low risk for an elevated thunderstorm towards the south coast of New England Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with the development of the secondary low pressure. Lapse rates will be marginal, and it is not a favored time of day.

Steady easterly wind will lead to temperatures not moving much during this time. Still near to slightly below normal for late March though during the day. Night-time temperatures more likely to be above normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Highlights .

* Cool and cloudy with scattered showers (some mixed with graupel) on Monday. Some snow coatings possible in the hilly terrain Monday night.

* Continue to monitor potential mid to late-week coastal system. Consensus track remains south of Southern New England, but could bring rain/wet snow if it tracks closer to the coast.

* Brief break Friday night - early Saturday before a cold front arrives later Saturday.

* Cooler than normal temps (especially highs) through midweek, then trending closer to normal by late week/early weekend.

Details .

Overall a fairly unsettled and (more often than not) cloudier weather pattern in store thru late week. Other than in cloud breaks, sunshine probably will be hard to come by over the next handful of days.

Monday:

Upper low and its cool pocket of air aloft will meander from Ontario into interior New England on Monday. Considerable low-level moisture supports mostly cloudy conditions with scattered instability-type showers. While the convective depth is pretty shallow, steep lower- level lapse rates associated with cooler pocket of air aloft and low freezing levels could support graupel at times. Best chance for showers during the day is north and west of I-95. QPF amounts should be limited to a tenth-inch or less, but just be aware that you'll have to dodge some showers at times.

Later Monday night, modest cool advection may help transition rain to wet snow showers particularly across the higher terrain. Could be some spotty light coatings in these areas (east slopes of the Berkshires, northern Worcester County and possibly into a part of the Merrimack Valley), but otherwise looking at a cloudy night with cool rain showers.

Abundant clouds and limited heating supports highs on the cooler end of guidance

Tuesday:

Still unsettled into Tuesday, with a lingering inverted trough aloft interacting with some onshore moisture supporting a period of light rain or snow showers. At the surface, a cool wedge of high pressure builds down from ME/eastern NH on northeasterly flow. This will help reinforce the cooler air. Temperatures should trend cooler than normal, with highs in the low to mid 40s for most, though into the mid-upper 40s across Tolland and Hartford Counties.

Tuesday Night through Thursday Night:

Pattern change toward one of high-latitude blocking remains advertised for much of this period, with GFS/ECMWF ensemble teleconnections indicating a negative-phase AO/NAO. By Tuesday night, the upper-level low initially over Nova Scotia and adjacent waters begins to retrograde back towards the Northeast US. Today's 12z guidance continues to advertise a southern- stream trough which leads to surface low developing over the lower MS Valley/Deep South on Tuesday, which progresses off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Where this coastal low evolves thereafter remains uncertain.

Currently, nearly all of the 12z deterministic model guidance traverses this coastal low eastward south of 40 deg N latitude, with little if any poleward/northward advance. Last night's 00z Canadian GEM operational run, however, did bring a coastal storm to Southern New England. It's southern stream disturbance was a lot stronger than the GFS or the ECMWF depiction. It is also worth noting this lone 00z Canadian GEM solution didn't have support from the GFS/ECMWF ensemble and even its own GEM ensemble. It has since gone back on the 12z run toward the consensus suppressed/southern track. The southern-stream trough responsible is progged to come onshore coastal California later tonight, and while the model consensus currently favors little impact if any at all (at least an enhancement to NE winds over the southern waters), all outcomes still remain on the table and will not yet downplay this system. Will continue to advertise lower Chance-level PoPs with nonetheless considerable cloudiness at least given the presence of the retrograding upper low and related moisture.

Will have to watch how close any wrap-around precip gets later Wed night into Thurs night, with the 12z ECMWF/Canadian GEM and to a lesser extent the GFS indicating this potential.

Temperatures Wed start off cooler than normal on the highs (in the mid to upper 40s), and near normal on the lows (in the 30s Tues thru Thurs night). By Thursday, highs should start to trend closer to normal (upper 40s-mid 50s).

Friday - Saturday:

There is some level of uncertainty in this period on shower chances on Friday depending on how close any wrap-around moisture makes it from the distant coastal system, which looks to slow/stall in the waters south of the Canadian Maritimes. Better chances may be towards the coast than further inland, but will stay close to a model blended approach which keeps chances for showers going across a larger part of Southern New England.

Nonetheless, even if drier weather ultimately ensues for Friday, most models show a cold front progressing in from the Great Lakes/OH Valley into Saturday, bringing another chance for showers. Seasonable to slightly above normal highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows in the mid/upper 30s.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . High confidence in the trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Conditions deteriorating to MVFR as ceilings lower and some localized IFR conditions may eventually develop across the interior. Potential for visibility reductions as well, but low confidence is lower in visibility reduction. This will be most likely in areas of heavier precipitation. There is potential for IFR ceilings, but have not lowered most terminals to these levels at this point in time.

Sunday and Sunday Night . Mainly MVFR with areas IFR in heavier rainfall.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in timing.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Scattered SHRA, patchy BR.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Scattered SHRA, scattered SHSN, patchy BR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance SHSN.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Tweaked the timing of Small Craft Advisories across the waters. Did not have enough confidence to issue such advisories for Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay, but it is not impossible for some gusts to 25 kt on those waters Sunday. Low risk for gale force gusts across the eastern coastal waters late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Not enough confidence in these gusts to upgrade to Gale Warnings. It's marginal.

Rain expected to develop tonight into Sunday as a warm front lifts through and a secondary low develops along the south coast. Some visibility reduction as fog develops, too. Winds will gradually shift to the east tonight and Sunday, then increase. On Sunday gusts will increase to 25- 30 kts along with seas building to 5-8 feet across the interior ocean waters, while the outer waters see waves build to 7-10 feet. Confidence has increased to issue a Small Craft Advisory across the majority of ocean waters through Sunday.

There is potential for isolated thunderstorms across the ocean waters Sunday evening.

Winds decrease and become more variable across most of the waters Sunday night as a secondary low pressure develops near Cape Cod.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Scattered rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Scattered rain showers, patchy fog.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Isolated rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ232. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ233- 234. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237-255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Loconto NEAR TERM . Belk SHORT TERM . Belk LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Belk/Loconto MARINE . Belk/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 11 mi117 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 44°F 41°F2 ft1019.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi71 min ESE 9.7 G 12 45°F 44°F2 ft1019.9 hPa (-1.4)38°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 22 mi49 min 46°F 42°F1019.7 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi61 min SE 14 G 15 43°F 1020.5 hPa (-1.3)37°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi76 min ESE 5.1 47°F 1021 hPa32°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 34 mi53 min 42°F2 ft
CMLN3 34 mi177 min ESE 16 44°F 43°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi71 min SE 12 G 14 43°F 2 ft1021.1 hPa (-1.1)32°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi117 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 2 ft1023 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi68 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds49°F32°F52%1020.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi67 minENE 710.00 miOvercast46°F36°F68%1020.4 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi67 minESE 810.00 miFair51°F28°F41%1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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NW9N9N7N7N5N4W5NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalm3SE8SE9SE8SE7SE8E7SE8
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2 days agoE8NE5NE8NE8NE8NE9NE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Manchester Harbor, Massachusetts
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Manchester Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT     9.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     8.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:52 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.27.98.98.97.75.93.920.60.41.53.24.96.788.47.86.44.62.81.40.91.73.4

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.200.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.