Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Danvers, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:12PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:37 AM EST (11:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:58PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 341 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Mon night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Tue and Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain and snow showers.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 341 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres will move from the eastern great lakes to new england by late Sat. Night. The high will move off the coast Sunday as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west Mon into Tue. The cold front sweeps across the waters Tue night with a secondary cold front moving through Wed afternoon. Strong high pres moves into the region Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Danvers, MA
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location: 42.59, -70.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 070922 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 422 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure will move from the eastern Great Lakes to New England by late tonight. Many areas will have sub-freezing high temperatures today. It will be frigid tonight. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder and moist air for the first half of the week. This will bring off-and-on rain for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, and there might be some back-end snow on Wednesday although confidence is very low at this point. We dry out by late Wednesday and return to colder than normal temperatures for early December on Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 415 AM update .

Skies were mostly clear across the region early this morning. There were some patchy low clouds in Worcester County and ocean-effect low clouds persisted over the eastern half of Cape Cod and on Nantucket. Temperatures were still dropping through the 20s in most areas, except some teens in northwest MA and lower 30s on Cape Cod and the Islands. Winds had calmed to less than 10 mph over much of the interior, but were still gusting to 20-30 mph on southern Narragansett Bay and over Cape Cod and Nantucket.

Very cold 850 mb temperatures . near -13C . will make for a chilly day today. Despite partly to mostly sunny skies, we are expecting highs to struggle to reach the freezing mark in most areas, except mid 30s for highs in southern RI and Cape Cod and the Islands.

High pressure will be approaching from the west, but this morning into early afternoon, there will still be a bit of a gradient, leading to some wind gusts of 15-20 mph for a few hours around midday.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/.

Tonight, strong high pressure will be centered over southern New England. The combination of light wind, clear skies, and snow cover will allow temperatures to plummet rapidly. We went lower than model guidance, with lows ranging from 3 to 10 above zero in northern and western MA and from 10 to 15 elsewhere, except upper teens to mid 20s on the immediate coast.

On Sunday, high pressure moves off the coast and winds turn to a southwesterly direction. Temperatures will moderate a little, with highs in the 30s, with lower 40s southeast MA. Skies will start out sunny, but there will be an increase in mid level cloudiness in the afternoon, due to warm advection aloft.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Big Picture .

Broad upper trough digs over the Plains and Great Lakes early in the week while upper ridge builds over the Western Atlantic. This creates a southwest flow aloft across the Eastern USA and brings milder air into Southern New England. The upper trough moves east midweek, crossing New England Thursday, and eventually flattens into a zonal flow for the end of the week.

Normal 500-mb heights in this area in mid December range from 545 to 555 Dm. Forecast heights for Sunday night are in the 560s, diminishing to 555 to 562 Dm by Tuesday. So the deep layer is expected to be mild during the early week with no low level features to hold any surface cold air over our area. As the upper trough swings east these values lower to between 535 and 540 Dm, although the ECMWF and GGEM suggest values around 530 Dm. So the trend will be to colder than normal Wednesday-Thursday, then trend toward normal Friday.

Mass fields and thermal fields in the models are similar through Monday but then show some model-to-model differences midweek. This means moderate to high confidence through the early week, with diminishing confidence midweek.

Daily Concerns .

Sunday night .

Surface high pressure offshore with a south-southwest flow over Southern New England. Surface winds coming off the ocean into Srn RI/SE MA are around 30 kt/35 mph while winds 3000-5000 feet abv surface show a 50 kt/55 mph southwest jet over the interior. If winds from the base of this higher jet get mixed, it may also bring gusts to 30 kt/35 mph farther inland.

Model soundings show a saturated layer developing below 3000 feet, but dry air higher up in the nucleation layer through 6 AM. This shows some potential for spits and drizzle but otherwise a dry night.

Expect lowest temperature in the early night, with temperatures rising overnight. Based on dew points, the expected evening temperatures should be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. All temperatures are above freezing by midnight, so any precip that does form overnight should be rain.

Monday-Tuesday .

Mild south-southwest flow will continue to bring warmer air and increased moisture. Saturation climbs through the -10C to -15C layer around sunrise Monday, so expect rain/showers to develop around that time and spread over all areas of Southern New England. PW values will climb to between 1 inch and 1.25 inches Monday, then hover around 1 inch Tuesday. RH fields in cross-sections show a deep column of moisture over us for Monday and Tuesday. Current guidance favors a break in the rain Tuesday morning, then another burst late in the day and Tuesday night . but this timing may shift in future model runs. Currently, rain totals expected in the 1-2 inch range, possibly higher in spots.

Low level jet segments move up the coast Monday and Tuesday. One jet on Monday brings 60-70 kt winds at 2000 feet, which would support 35 kt wind gusts at the surface along the coast. A second jet Tuesday shows 40-45 kt winds at 2000 feet and above. This shows the potential for strong gusty south-southwest winds each day.

The upper trough pushes a cold front through our area late Tuesday and early Tuesday night. Winds will shift out of the west Tuesday night. At the same time, a strong upper jet will move over New England with Srn New England in the right entrance region, where lift will be promoted. This may generate a few showers Tuesday night even after the front moves through, especially over RI and SE Mass.

Wednesday-Thursday-Friday .

Upper trough and associated cold pool move across New England on Wednesday. Cold pool instability may generate some clouds and scattered rain/snow showers during Wednesday, with best potential in Western and Central MA and areas north of the MA border.

High pressure then builds in with dry weather Thursday and Friday. Temperatures remain cold Thursday, but then turn milder as the high center moves offshore and a light south flow develops.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/ . High confidence.

0915Z update .

Today . VFR except local MVFR over outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, and banked up against higher terrain of the Worcester hills. NW winds gusting to 20-25 kt at times this morning and 15-20 kt this afternoon.

Tonight . VFR. Light NW winds. Sunday . VFR. Light SW winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, patchy BR.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance SHSN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . High confidence.

415 AM update .

Today . Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this morning for all coastal waters. Winds were still gusting to 20-30 kt early this morning but they will gradually be diminishing, such that all Advisories should be discontinued by 1 PM this afternoon, even on the outer waters. Seas on the outer waters will be subsiding from 4 to 7 feet this morning to 3 to 4 feet by late this afternoon.

Tonight . NW winds diminish to 10 to 15 kt and seas subside to 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday . As high pressure moves off the coast, light winds in the morning will turn to the SW and increase, with gusts to 20 to 25 kt by late in the afternoon.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/GAF NEAR TERM . GAF SHORT TERM . GAF LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/GAF MARINE . WTB/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 18 mi50 min 28°F 41°F1022.3 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 19 mi94 min NNW 23 G 27 29°F 46°F4 ft1019.9 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 22 mi48 min NW 23 G 27 31°F 47°F4 ft1021.7 hPa (+2.4)21°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 30 mi38 min WNW 22 G 25 25°F 1022 hPa (+2.7)19°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 33 mi113 min W 7 23°F 1022 hPa18°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi30 min 48°F5 ft
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 48 mi94 min NW 18 G 21 29°F 2 ft1021.2 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi48 min NW 21 G 25 31°F 6 ft1021.5 hPa (+2.8)21°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA1 mi45 minWNW 510.00 miFair23°F14°F68%1022.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA15 mi44 minNW 310.00 miFair21°F14°F74%1024.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA16 mi44 minNW 12 G 1910.00 miA Few Clouds28°F15°F58%1023.4 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA22 mi47 minN 010.00 miFair21°F17°F85%1024.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4SW5W5SW7SW9SW6SW7CalmE4NE3N3CalmN5NW7NW11NW6NW8NW9NW7NW9NW10NW6NW5
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2 days agoSW5SW5SW3SW6SW7SW6W9SW8SW4SW3S3CalmCalmW4W5W4W3W4W4W5W3W4W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Beverly, Massachusetts
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Beverly
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Sat -- 01:03 AM EST     1.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:29 AM EST     8.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:36 PM EST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:52 PM EST     8.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.31.72.74.15.97.68.58.57.76.34.62.71.51.42.13.34.96.67.98.37.76.54.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.38 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:00 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:46 AM EST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:32 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:45 PM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:10 PM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.30.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.20.30.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.