Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Kingsville, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:52PM Friday December 6, 2019 12:36 PM EST (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ168 Expires:201912061530;;928706 Fzus61 Kcle 060856 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 356 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure of 29.90 inches will pass north of lake erie this morning pulling a weak cold front south across the lake. High pressure of 30.50 inches will build east across ohio Saturday, reaching the mid-atlantic coast on Sunday. Low pressure of 29.50 inches will track northeast across the upper great lakes Sunday with another wave of low pressure, 29.40 inches tracking northeast through the central great lakes Monday. This system will pull an arctic cold front east across lake erie Tuesday. Lez061-166>169-061530- lake erie open waters from ripley to buffalo ny- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- lake erie open waters from willowick to geneva-on-the-lake oh- lake erie open waters from geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh- lake erie open waters from conneaut oh to ripley ny- 356 am est Fri dec 6 2019
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers this morning, then a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LEZ168


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Kingsville, OH
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location: 42.59, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 061214 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak clipper system will move through the Great Lakes region today and exit off the New England coast tonight. High pressure will return to the area for Saturday and remain under its influence through Sunday. An area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Sunday night and extend a warm front into the area for Monday. This low will move northeast along the warm front and enter the Great Lakes region for Monday night, extending an associated cold front across the area on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Tough to update the forecast this morning as temperatures across the forecast area vary greatly with localized temperature gradients from the mid 30s to mid to upper 40s. High temperatures will be achieved today this morning before the cold frontal passage later this afternoon. Some precipitation has developed along the lakeshore with some light rain in the Erie area. Expect a little bit better coverage this morning in this area as the front approaches and have a brief window of likely PoPs for Erie County PA.

Previous Discussion . A weak clipper system is sliding through the northern Great Lakes this morning and will continue east-southeast through Upstate New York this afternoon and eventually off the New England coast this evening. This system will miss the area well to the north during the daytime hours and any precipitation will be with the associated cold front with some help from Lake Erie in the snow belt region. With that, have dialed back PoPs for today from categorical to just a mix of slight chance to chance for NE OH and NW PA. Temperatures today will get into the 40s ahead of the front before falling with the cold frontal passage. With warm temperatures trapped close to the surface, expecting any early precipitation to be more rain than snow with some mix closer to the front.

Once the clipper and cold front pass to the east, lake effect processes will attempt to set up over the region as 850 mb temperatures settle into the -8 to -10 C range. Recent trends are that it will take a few hours for the atmosphere to re-saturate behind the cold frontal passage and lake effect snow will have trouble developing until the evening hours and so have highest PoPs around 00z with a brief period of likely snow. Dry air surges in quickly Friday night and snow should be done by day break on Saturday morning. Snow accumulations look low as snow will be scattered in nature with perhaps an inch of snow possible in the hills of Erie County, PA. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday and will keep the area dry, while cooler air remains over the region. Temperatures will struggle to approach normals in the upper 30s on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure will be located over Pennsylvania Saturday evening, building to the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. Winds will start out nearly calm in eastern areas Saturday evening but a light southerly wind will develop through the overnight. Passing mid and high cloud expected at times on Saturday night, giving way to an expanding stratus deck on Sunday. A warm front lifts north across the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks out of the northern Plains towards Hudson Bay. Despite the cloud cover, southerly flow and warm advection will result in highs on Sunday approximately 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the trough developing over the Plains will also result in good moisture advection, especially Sunday night into Monday. Showers will expand in coverage Sunday night with widespread rain expected on Monday as another wave of low pressure tracks northeast along the frontal boundary. Much of the area can expect to see rainfall amounts of around a half inch with above normal temperatures in the low 50s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A deep upper level trough will develop over the Plains on Monday night, swinging eastward across the Great Lakes Region through Tuesday night. A strong cold front will move east across the area on Tuesday with temperatures falling through the daytime hours as an arctic airmass arrives. 850mb temperatures are expected to reach between -17 to -20C by Wednesday morning. At this time long range models continue to show a favorable set-up for westerly flow across Lake Erie from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. As previously noted, moisture depth is limited but good convergence down the long fetch of the lake coupled with extreme instability over the relatively warm lake waters presents the potential for heavy lake effect snows to develop, especially closer to the lakeshore. We will need to monitor model trends into next week as some slowing of the system is likely and slight adjustments in wind direction will alter the favored areas for snowfall. Highs on Wednesday could be 20 or more degrees below normal in the 20s trended the forecast temperatures towards the cooler ECMWF MOS guidance.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR conditions with mid-level clouds remain over the region ahead of a surface cold front currently stretching from north of KDTW to just northwest of KFWA. This front will progress southeast this morning, crossing much of the airspace by this afternoon. Ahead of the front, some precipitation was developing along the Lake Erie lakeshore around KERI and some rain or wet snow will be present through the cold frontal passage. As the front crosses the area, ceilings will lower with MVFR expected at several locations. Winds will veer with the front to the west then northwest through the TAF period. Some lake effect snow is possible around the KERI and perhaps KYNG areas tonight. Dry air enters the region quickly overnight and all locations should be VFR for the first part of Saturday.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR likely late Sunday through Monday with rain. Non-VFR across the snowbelt into Tuesday.

MARINE. Low pressure will pass north of Lake Erie this morning pulling a cold front south across the lake behind it. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Cleveland eastward as the flow shifts to the northwest at 15 to 25 knots behind the front. Waves of 4 to 6 feet can be expected this afternoon into tonight.

Strong high pressure will build east across the region on Saturday, reaching the East Coast on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase into the 15 to 25 knot range on Sunday and remain breezy into Monday. A strong cold front will move west to east across Lake Erie on Tuesday ushering in an arctic airmass. Westerly winds of at least 20-25 knots can be expected behind the front with Small Craft Advisories likely during the mid-week period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . KEC LONG TERM . KEC AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . KEC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi67 min NW 18 G 22 44°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 59 mi49 min NW 20 G 24 41°F 38°F1016.6 hPa38°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA55 mi46 minWNW 10 G 218.00 miOvercast42°F35°F76%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KERI

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.