Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cortland, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday April 22, 2021 11:05 AM EDT (15:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:32PMMoonset 3:12AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202104221515;;940050 Fzus51 Kbuf 221030 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 630 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 630 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day, then rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cortland, NY
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location: 42.6, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 221339 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 939 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold and windy air mass will generate scattered lake effect snow showers across central NY this morning. The snow will mix with rain later today and taper off through the afternoon. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns to the region Friday as high pressure builds in, but another storm system will bring a chance for rain Saturday night into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. 930 am update .

Made some minor adjustments to the forecast for this morning and into early this afternoon. Temperatures are running a few degrees colder than previously forecast and with the cooler temps, snowfall is able to accumulate this morning on grassy surfaces. The temperature adjustment led to slightly higher snowfall totals across Central NY and additional localized snowfall amounts of about an inch will be possible. H850 ridge is starting to build in from the SW and this will help diminish the snow shower activity by early this evening.

335 am update . Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the area of lake effect snow showers impacting central NY this morning . the below average temperatures and gusty winds today and tonight, and quiet and warmer conditions on Friday.

A trailing weak embedded short wave extending west off the main upper low is dropping south across southern Ontario into central/wrn NY this morning along with the initial push of cold Canadian air which is tracking across a relatively warm Lake Ontario and triggering a broad area of lake induced convection over a good portion of central NY. The snow showers are mostly disorganized, but still capable of producing periods of heavy snow, and laying down a thin layer of snow on untreated roads in a short period of time. The combination of large dendrites and blowing snow is also hindering visibility somewhat too. Vsbys have been down to less than a half mile in pockets, and these conditions should persist through at least sunrise. Snowfall amounts will be quite variable given the relatively warm surface temperatures and chaotic nature of the snow showers. However, a broad area of 1-2 inches is likely from northern Steuben County to near Cayuga Lake east across the elevated terrain south of Syracuse to near or south of Utica. Some of the highest elevation locations could see closer to 2-3 inches.

Once the weak short wave rotates through the area, there will likely be some weak suppression on the back side which will cause the snow showers to abate somewhat in the late morning and early afternoon. Also by this time, boundary layer temperatures for elevations below 1500 feet will be warming into the upper 30s and lower 40s. This will allow any lingering lake induced showers to mix with or change to light rain.

Weather conditions will remain cold and windy today as the rain/snow mix persists through the day due to a continuous supply of Canadian air from the north. The chance of rain and/or snow may get a little bit of a bump later today and into the early evening as a second short wave drops south from Ontario. The air mass will be drier, so we are still not expecting significant precip but rain/snow, changing to snow, may linger a bit longer than previously expected this evening. Additional snow amounts will be light if anything at all.

The dry air moving in tonight will also allow skies to become mostly clear well after midnight. Winds will back off as well, which will help with potential radiational cooling. Lows tonight will drop back into the upper 20s and lower 30s. High pressure will build in quickly from the west on Friday and bring with it quiet weather conditions and a much warmer air mass. Temperatures on Friday will climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Friday night continues to look favorable for radiational cooling with winds finally starting to decrease and clear skies. As a result, lows should fall back into the 30's once again. High pressure begins to depart the area on Saturday as high clouds roll in ahead of the next system. Continued good ensemble agreement at this time to hold off the bulk of rain with the next system till Saturday night besides a few light rain showers toward sunset west of I-81. Temperatures continue to trend warmer Saturday back into the 60's.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure is expected to track from the Tennessee valley northeast up the east coast Saturday night and Sunday with a secondary cold front moving in from the Great Lakes. Moisture and lift look sufficient ahead of these features to develop several rounds of rain or showers. Model and ensemble trends over the past few model cycles have been for more separation between these features. As a result, model and ensemble rainfall forecast have trended downward slightly in the quarter to half inch range. The rain though should keep the temperatures down in the 40's and 50's through Sunday.

Gradual clearing Sunday afternoon and night as the low pressure system departs and high pressure builds into the area by Monday. This high pressure looks to become firmly established with a strong mid level ridge in place as well into the middle of next week. given the strength of the mid-level ridge opted for a slower timing of the next cold front holding off till after Wednesday.

Also, warm air advection on the backside of the high should result in a gradual warming trend with highs getting into the 60's and 70's. A few spots Lows will be slower to respond but with dry weather a could push 80 based on modeled boundary layer temperatures on Wednesday. So continued to trend highs toward the warmest ensemble members. Also, a wide diurnal spread is anticipated with 30's and 40's for lows.

Mixing may become more of a concern as we get closer in time to the middle of next week which usually causes for busts of modeled RH values in the afternoon. Given the rain expected Sunday, it would take fuels some time to dry out in terms of any fire spread concerns due to weather.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Periods of lake-enhanced snow showers will continue this morning and mix with some light rain and taper off later today. Visibility will be variable, fluctuating between VFR and IFR at times within snow showers. Precipitation will diminish later as drier air moves in, but a secondary boost of rain and/or snow may roll in during the early evening hours as a shortwave trough drops in. Overall, conditions improve after about 15Z this morning.

Winds will remain nwly through today with gusts up to 30 knots before tapering back to 10 kt or so after 00Z Friday but still a few gust 15 to 20 kt possible through the overnight tonight.

Outlook .

Friday through Saturday . Mainly VFR expected

Saturday night . A system brings rain and deteriorating conditions.

Sunday through Monday . Rain begins to gradually move out of the area Sunday morning with VFR conditions returning Sunday afternoon and remaining into the start of next week.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT/MPK SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . MWG AVIATION . BJT/MPH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 62 mi72 min WNW 28 G 35 35°F 1010.4 hPa25°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 88 mi66 min WNW 19 G 27 36°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi72 min 36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY17 mi70 minW 14 G 2310.00 miOvercast32°F23°F69%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KITH

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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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