Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010419 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1119 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

UPDATE. Mid-high level clouds will continue to increase from the west as elevated warm air and moisture advection increases ahead of northern Plains low pressure. Light winds and mostly clear skies have allowed temps to plummet this evening, so wl need to lower a few locations minimum overnight temperature until the clouds spread in from the west.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). VFR conditions expected for this forecast period. Mid-high level clouds will continue to spread across southern WI overnight with a chance for some lighter showers from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Gusty south winds will develop on Monday, with gusts up to 30 kts.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 907 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020)

UPDATE . High clouds continue to stream southeast across northern into eastern WI this evening. Still expect mid-high level clouds to increase across southern WI from the west as upstream warm air and moisture advection increases. Overnight temperatures in good shape.

MARINE . Expanded Small Craft Advisory to include all nearshore waters Monday afternoon and evening. Expect at least occasional gusts to 25 knots over the shore areas to affect at least the western part of the near shore waters. Also the tightening pressure gradient may allow gusts to approach gale force for a time across the northern and central Lake Michigan open waters in the afternoon and evening as well.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 603 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020)

UPDATE . Increasing upstream warm air and moisture advection will result in increasing and thickening clouds overnight, after a very pleasant evening! Any showers should hold off until later Monday morning. The increasing clouds and low level winds above the boundary layer should help keep temperatures a bit warmer compared to last night.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of this forecast period. Mid-high level clouds will thicken overnight with scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms spreading across southern Wisconsin beginning mid-morning Monday continuing through the afternoon. Gusty south to southwest winds will develop by late morning with of 25 to 30 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 346 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Monday Night . Forecast Confidence: Medium.

High pressure will be moving eastward out of the Midwest tonight. Moisture and cloud cover will be increasing this evening as a low pressure system approaches the state. The upper level shortwave will that is approaching, will move through just to the north of southern Wisconsin Monday afternoon. During this time, there will be a period of warm air advection that moves into the region. There will also be some decent low level frontogenesis with the passage of the warm front Monday afternoon. Soundings are showing a decent cap developing during the afternoon hours and strengthening Monday night. With the strength of the cap, the areal coverage of showers and storms may be limited. The main risk for any severe weather (gusty winds and hail) is expected to remain to the north of southern Wisconsin Monday.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

Much of the day Tuesday will remain dry with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s for highs. Into the evening however, a frontal system will likely push in from the northwest. This will bring the chance for showers and storms across the region through Wednesday. Any storms with this system will have the potential to be strong to severe given plenty of shear and instability present. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty given differences in timing and track in models, which could impact potential for stronger storms.

Thursday through Sunday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty during this period with initially a more zonal flow pattern through Thursday likely keeping things dry. Friday the pattern will amplify again as a system to the north and east pushes across the Great Lakes region. This will bring potential for showers and storms to the CWA but there remains uncertainty in moisture as well as in timing and forcing. Saturday looks likely to remain dry at this point with Sunday looking likely to feature another system rolling through the region.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

VFR Conditions will be persisting through tonight. High pressure is moving eastward out of the region keeping skies clear. Some afternoon cumulus may develop later today, but mostly clear skies will persist. As a low pressure system approaches the region tonight, Mid to high clouds will increase from the west to east. As the low pressure moves into the region on Monday, the rain showers and lower ceilings may cause conditions to fall to MVFR.

MARINE .

High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan today. The high pressure will move southeast tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching low pressure. Winds will become southerly this evening and remain light through Monday. The southerly winds will be increasing Monday evening ahead of the incoming low pressure system. The increasing winds and waves Monday afternoon into Tuesday, may warrant a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore zones north of Port Washington.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Update . mbK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine . mbK Monday Night through Sunday . ARK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	50 mi	30 min	S 8.9 G 11	54°F			1024.4 hPa (-0.3)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	54 mi	20 min	S 5.1 G 5.1	54°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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N6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI	15 mi	55 min	SE 5	10.00 mi	Fair	55°F	44°F	67%	1023.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI	24 mi	35 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	51°F	42°F	71%	1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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