Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Darien, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:25PM Monday December 16, 2019 3:10 AM CST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 12:03PM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cst Mon Dec 16 2019
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely after midnight, then chance of snow early in the morning. Waves nearly calm.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201912161000;;859527 FZUS53 KMKX 160706 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-161000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Darien, WI
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location: 42.6, -88.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 160547 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1147 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019

UPDATE. Light snow and flurries are occurring across southern Wisconsin at the moment with the main area of snow accumulations being from Green County near Monroe over to Janesville in Rock county where visibility has been down around 2-3sm for the past hour. DOT cams show that a light dusting has occurred there with some powdery snow on the shoulders of the highways. Based on reflectivity on radar to the west of the office, expected that visibility was about to drop in Madison, etc but it hasn't. Only site out in SW WI that has been reporting anything has been Viroqua. Main forcing appears to come in the 850-600mb column and based on the past few runs of the RAP, it should be through within the next few hours, well before the morning rush. Thus, sticking to the dusting to no accumulation forecast through early morning.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS). Conditions are mainly VFR across southern WI, but some brief drops in visibility down to around 2sm have occurred at Monroe on over to Kenosha as a system moves through. Could have some brief drops in ceilings as well, down to around 1.5kft. Conditions should quickly improve this morning after the system moves off to the east and a ridge of high pressure sits over the region. A patch of MVFR ceilings around 2kft may move in during the afternoon/evening, but conditions may remain dry enough in the low levels down here that it doesn't materialize.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 247 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight and Monday . Forecast confidence is high.

A rather moist mid level trof axis will drift across the area tonight . associated with the bigger system staying well south of Wisconsin. It looks like it could produce some flurries for a time, mainly south of Milwaukee and Madison. We may even see a dusting of accumulation southwest of Madison. None of this will have any impact on travel for Monday morning. This is a brief event and will be south and east of the area by the morning commute. The clouds spreading across the area will keep temps in check tonight, though still chilly in the teens. Winds will be light or calm into Monday morning.

LONG TERM .

Monday Night through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is High .

The system to the south will push east/northeast ushering in some cooler and drier air behind it as light winds turn to the northwest. The upper level low will continue pushing southeast into the great lakes region Tuesday. This will actually bring a chance for some light snow Tuesday night but given fairly dry air in the lower levels not much, if anything, is expected. Wednesday will see high pressure push in as the upper level low pulls out to the east.

Generally quiet conditions are expected through this period with mostly dry conditions though some cooler temperatures are likely, especially Tuesday night.

Thursday through Sunday . Forecast Confidence is Medium .

This period continues to look fairly quiet at the moment with an upper level ridge dominating the region Thursday. However, models are indicating that an upper level low will move through the region late next week, which will areas of low pressure, however, models remain mostly dry due to the dominance of dry air, especially near the surface. If we can get any sort of influx of moisture the situation late next week could change but for now dry conditions are expected. Otherwise temperatures for this period look to be more mild for this time of year.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) . VFR conditions are expected through the period. May have some flurries or light snow move through overnight but visibilities are expected to stay VFR, perhaps briefly to MVFR. Ceilings will drop into the 4-6kft range as this feature moves through overnight but then lift going into tomorrow morning. Winds will be very light to calm as a ridge of high pressure sits overhead on into tomorrow.

MARINE .

Strongest winds tonight/tomorrow will be across the northern end of Lake Michigan with a broad ridge of high pressure setup across the southern portion of it. This ridge will gradually dissipate with more of a northwesterly flow setup developing with a cold front pushing through on Tuesday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Halbach Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine . Davis Monday Night through Sunday . ARK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 50 mi70 min NW 6 G 7 23°F 1021 hPa (+0.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 54 mi30 min WNW 4.1 G 6 23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Janesville-Rock County, WI15 mi35 minN 01.75 miLight Snow23°F23°F100%1021 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi15 minN 03.00 miLight Snow21°F19°F91%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJVL

Wind History from JVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N3CalmCalm3NW5Calm3W4W4W3W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoCalmNW3N5NW7NW10NW10NW12NW10NW12NW13NW13NW13
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2 days agoNW6NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NE4CalmCalmE3NW3CalmNW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.