Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Penn Yan, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:08PM Monday September 20, 2021 2:06 AM EDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 6:27PMMoonset 5:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1001 Pm Edt Sun Sep 19 2021
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then rain with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain during the day, then showers likely Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 72 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202109200900;;882122 FZUS51 KBUF 200201 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1001 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-200900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Penn Yan, NY
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location: 42.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 200536 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 136 AM EDT Mon Sep 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure in control for the next few days will allow for dry weather at least through Tuesday. After a seasonably cool night tonight, temperatures will be slightly above normal through the mid-week. Our next frontal system will bring rain Wednesday into Thursday to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 635 PM Update .

Made minor adjustments to hourly temperatures tonight as we are expecting temperatures to quickly fall after sunset with ideal radiational cooling conditions present. This resulted in lowering forecast low temperatures by a couple degrees for parts of the area to be more in line with our neighboring forecast offices. Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged from the afternoon forecast package. Still expecting patchy fog to develop overnight/early Monday morning, especially in the valleys. Otherwise, no other weather concerns are present in the near term forecast period.

330 PM Update .

Skies stay clear overnight, with a dry airmass and light winds contributing to ideal radiational cooling conditions. Expect lows to fall as low as the upper 40s and lower 50s. In spite of the dry airmass, the warmer rivers will lead to more lower-level moisture, so valley fog is expected once again. Visibility in some spots will likely fall below a mile.

Another sunny and quiet day is expected Monday as the surface high begins to slide eastward. This will cause flow to shift out of the south/southwest, advecting in a warmer airmass. Expect temperatures to quickly rise into the 70s and even the lower 80s in our typically warmer valleys and urban spots.

Temperatures Monday night will come in much warmer than the previous night with a warmer airmass and high clouds starting to move in ahead of our next disturbance. Expect lows in the 50s and perhaps only lower 60s across the Finger Lakes. Still will not rule out some valley fog, but winds will be increasing with a tightening pressure gradient as a high amplitude trough digs into the central US.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. 340 PM Update .

High pressure will continue to move out of the area Tuesday as an amplified trough moves over the Central US. Tuesday should still be a pleasant day with partially sunny skies and dry conditions. Daytime highs will be in the 70s. Cloud cover will increase ahead of the incoming system Tuesday night. This will help keep temperatures mild as 50s and 60s are expected.

Going into Wednesday, there is the possibility for some scattered showers that develop ahead of a strong cold front associated with the trough. There is not much instability, but there is just enough for the slight chance for some thunderstorms during the day. Warm, southerly flow will help the temps get back into 70s, despite the area being under mostly cloudy skies. PoPs increase by Wednesday night with showers looking likely ahead of the frontal system as it approaches the area. The National Blend of Models (NBM) was aggressive with PoPs, so the timing was slowed down some with definite PoPs over the western two-thirds of the region by late Wednesday night. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s once again.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 340 PM Update .

The main event will be Thursday and Friday as the front finally passes through. Models still disagree with the timing. The GFS is faster with its arrival, which has it entering the region Thursday morning. The ECMWF is a solid 6-12 hours behind. The NBM seemed too aggressive with the timing as well, drying the area out much earlier than expected. Due to the timing differences, PoPs were greatly adjusted with the highest PoPs for the estimated frontal position based on a blend NBM, GFS, and ECMWF. There does look to be some instability for thunderstorms during the day. At this time, it does not appear like anything will be severe as CAPE and shear are low. Heading into Thursday night, PoPs are still high as the front passes through with just chance PoPs by Friday morning.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with this event. As mentioned, the GFS is earliest with the front's arrival. However it has it becoming quasi-stationary over the region Thursday before pushing it out Friday. The ECMWF does not have the front arriving into the region until early Friday morning and moves it right through, with dry conditions expected Friday night. This timing difference is also seen in the PWATs. The GFS has much higher PWATs than the ECMWF. If solutions like the GFS were to be the case, then there could be some hydro issues across the area. If the ECMWF solution is correct, then the faster passage would limit any hydro concerns. At least an inch of rain across the region looks likely with more being a possibility as well. This is a system to monitor, especially until model guidance comes into better agreement.

Mostly dry conditions are expected for Friday with some showers still possible, mainly over the Catskills and Poconos. The front should be out of the region by Friday night with dry conditions expected through Saturday. Then another system will move into the region with showers possible by Saturday evening.

With cooler air filling in behind the front, highs during this period will be in the 60s, with a some 70s possible Saturday for a brief warm up. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Valley fog through the morning hours with restrictions at ELM. Fog lifts by 13Z to 14Z and then VFR through the remainder of the period.

Outlook .

Tuesday morning through Tuesday night . Possible MVFR to IFR ceilings from the Southern Tier on southward with marine stratus pushing into the region.

Wednesday . Mostly VFR conditions, showers and restrictions possible late Wednesday.

Thursday . Frontal system brings increasing chance for rain showers, thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

Friday . Showers ending early, then VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJG/HLC NEAR TERM . BJG/HLC SHORT TERM . BTL LONG TERM . BTL AVIATION . MPK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi66 min SSE 8 G 9.9 61°F 1024.4 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi48 min 58°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 64 mi48 min SSE 5.1 G 8 56°F 1023.7 hPa51°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY3 mi73 minVar 510.00 miFair52°F49°F89%1024.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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