Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Penn Yan, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 4:35PM Sunday December 15, 2019 12:26 AM EST (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 10:33AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 723 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain this evening, then rain showers likely with scattered snow showers after midnight. Scattered snow showers late. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Scattered snow showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 9 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Sunday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots overnight. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Snow and rain likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow and rain likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912150415;;795358 FZUS51 KBUF 150023 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 723 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-150415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Penn Yan, NY
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location: 42.62, -77     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 150520 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1220 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Another winter storm will bring a wintry mix to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a cyclone moves through the Mid- Atlantic region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 10 pm update . Received a few reports of drizzle and freezing drizzle . and model soundings are indicating a loss of ice crystals aloft as the drier air above -10C moves in . which would promote more super cooled water droplets, and subsequent fzdz at the surface where temps are sub freezing, and drizzle where temps are above freezing. Will carry this patchy dz/fzdz through the overnight hours in isolated pockets of the srn tier and into the Catskills and ne PA.

830 pm update . Only minor changes made to the forecast this evening. Transitioned the rain to snow a bit quicker in the forecast, and dropped forecast temperatures tonight a few degrees. Still maintaining the 1-3 inches..mainly in the higher terrain of the southern Finger Lakes and the hills south of Syracuse . tonight, with the higher amounts into nrn Oneida County. Have seen around 1 inch in nrn Oneida so far . and additional 2 to 6 is possible through tonight and the morning tomorrow.

The rest of the forecast looks on track.

230 pm update .

Forecast in good shape. Little change.

Steady rain has moved into the area along with a strong surface low. Aloft is a sharp progressive upper level trough. Colder air is already moving into western NY changing the rain to snow. This will be our weather this evening as the surface low and trough lift northeast into Quebec. This evening winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 ushering in much colder air. Rain will change to snow the rest of today from northwest to southeast and from high elevation to valleys. The higher terrain in the Finger Lakes to upper Susquehanna to Tug Hill will get 1 to 4 inches tonight. Steady snow ends by sunrise but lake effect snow remains mostly along and north of the thruway for Sunday into Sunday night. Lake effect snow amounts will be light with 1 to 3 for the Tug and less elsewhere. A winter weather advisory continues for northern Oneida County for the combination of synoptic and lake effect snow tonight into Sunday. The lake effect snow slowly tapers off Sunday afternoon and night across our far north.

Fortunate that the liquid storm amounts of up to an inch will not be all rain. Only minor river responses so far. A few of the headwaters could get to caution stage Sunday. Snowpack will not attribute much additional runoff to worry about this event.

Temperatures in the 40s now will drop into the low and mid 30s this evening then remain there into Sunday morning. Highs Sunday only a few degrees warmer. Making it feel colder will be the wind. Strong winds will continue through the day Sunday. Some of higher ridgetops and Catskill peaks will be blowing at 25 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph. This will not be widespread so no wind advisory.

Sunday night low in the upper teens to lower 20s. There is a small chance that overrunning snow could get into NEPA by sunrise.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure developing over the Ohio valley begins to head northeast towards the area Monday evening into Tuesday, touching off light snow across the area by late MOnday morning before a trust of warmer, more moist air brings in better lift and increases chances for snow across the area from south to north. GFS and Euro continue to agree on a more southerly track of this system, with the center of the low moving first into southwest PA, then generally heading towards Long Island and finally quickly pushing off the coast. Meanwhile, the NAM takes this system a little more northward into eastern NY state, with a more pronounced warm nose nudging into the Southern Tier Tuesday morning. The cooler, more southerly track continues to seem like a more reasonable solution, as a cold Canadian high over Quebec should continue to funnel in colder air into Monday night.

Therefore, with this latest update, the snow/mix line has been moved more southward. Cold air in place will allow for precipitation to start off entirely as snow across our area before 0Z, quickly changing over to a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain in northeast PA. The freezing line continues to push northward through midnight, finally resting somewhere around the Twin Tiers into Tuesday morning. However, there is the aforementioned disagreement among the models, with 850 mb temperatures staying near and below 0C according to the GFS, Euro, and ensembles, and the latest NAM bringing above-freezing temperatures more northward. At this time, mainly snow is expected northeast of a line from Cooperstown to Cortland to Hornell, with a mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet through to the Twin Tiers. A change over to mainly rain is expected into NE PA, especially across the river valleys, as temperatures there climb into the upper 30s and low 40s.

Tuesday afternoon, a change back over to snow is expected as the system moves offshore, and the cold front pushes through. A dry slot works in, shutting off snow for most of our area by 0Z, with just a few lingering showers across our eastern zones and a change over to lake effect snow showers downwind of Ontario into the evening.

Several inches of snow would be expected area-wide - with up to 1 to 3 inches across northeast PA and generally 3 to 4 inches across central NY. Lesser totals would be expected in the river valleys, where mainly rain will be seen during the day Tuesday. A glaze of ice will be possible across much of our area, southeast of the Cooperstown-Cortland-Hornell line.

Otherwise, we're still looking at non-diurnal temperatures through the short term period. Temperatures starting in the 20s Monday morning will climb generally into the low/mid 30s by the afternoon, and won't budge much after sunset as warm air starts moving in. Temperatures increase a couple degrees later Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon ahead of the front, then quickly fall back into the low/mid 20s early Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. No major changes to the extended; still looking cold with snow showers mid to late week . then drying out and moderating some by next Saturday.

Wednesday and Thursday: A piece of arctic air moves into the region as an upper level low swings across the region. Very cold air mass and unsettled conditions are expected with numerous snow showers for our lake snow effect areas and flurries or scattered snow showers further south. Highs will struggle to get into the 20's with overnight lows in the single digits north and teens for NE PA. If the operational GFS and ECMWF are to be believed temperatures will have to be adjusted even further downward given the modeled boundary layer temperatures.

Friday and Saturday: The cold upper level low moves east, with ridging, both aloft and at the surface moving in from the west. This should bring the lake effect snow showers to a gradual end and we should see a gradual moderating trend. Friday will likely still be below average, with highs in the mid-20s to lower 30s, and overnight lows Friday night still cold, in the teens to low 20s. By Saturday, early indications are for dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 30s for most areas.

AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

A mix of IFR/MVFR restrictions will persist overnight as a cold front exits the region. The most persistent restrictions will be at KRME, where light lake effect snow will skirt the terminal through the next several hours.

LLWS is expected from KSYR to KRME through early morning. Winds will gust at 25 to 30 knots throughout the morning and into the afternoon at all terminals.

Slow improvement is expected for flight conditions. Precipitation will end this morning, then ceilings will rise to VFR/MVFR this afternoon.

Outlook . Monday . VFR with winds decreasing.

Monday night and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

Wednesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions in CNY maybe reaching AVP.

Thursday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009.

SYNOPSIS . DJP NEAR TERM . BJT/TAC SHORT TERM . HLC/MJM LONG TERM . HLC/MJM AVIATION . DJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi86 min W 14 G 22 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi62 min 37°F 996 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 64 mi62 min W 36 G 44 994.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY3 mi33 minW 12 G 2510.00 miOvercast37°F30°F76%996.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44W5W8W13W14
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2 days agoW8SW6SW4SW4SW4SW6SW4S6CalmS5S7S5S5SE4S4SE6SE5S5S8S14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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