Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rockport, MA

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Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:18 PM EDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:30PMMoonset 8:36AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 329 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night and Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 329 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A series of weakening fronts will help maintain light winds and flat seas today through Tue. A cold front should cross the waters Thu night followed by high pres from the great lakes Fri into next weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockport, MA
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location: 42.65, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181936
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
336 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Very warm and humid weather will persist through midweek, along
with showers or thunderstorms at times. A cold front will cross
the region later in the week, followed by cooler and drier
conditions.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1015 am update...

the dense fog has dissipated as of 13z, so allowed the dense fog
advisory to expire. Still noting patchy fog on the outer cape
and block island, along with some patchy fog and haze across
portions of the ct valley at 14z, though note visibility around
1sm or so at kcqx and kbid. May see this clear briefly through
early this afternoon, but marine layer on light s-sw winds may
allow fog to push back onshore along S coastal areas.

Clouds have been thinning out across most areas, though noting
more coverage lingering across most east coastal areas as well
as some patches along the south coast as well as the ct valley
as seen on latest goes-east visible satellite imagery. Bubble
high pres lingers from SW me through to the mid hudson valley,
while a wavy front lingers S of long island at mid morning,
though a weak front S of the region may try to lift N during the
afternoon.

Short range models as well as the 06z GFS 00z ggem ec signaling
a mid level short wave pushing E into the hudson valley by
around 00z. Could see some convection firing up across ny n
central pa this afternoon, which may try to shift E and interact
with the lifting warm front to cause sct showers thunderstorms
to develop mainly across central and western areas, possibly
reaching eastern areas later in the day.

Have updated near term forecast to reflect this thinking.

Previous discussion...

models show potential for good instability this afternoon as
temperatures rise well into 80s and dewpoints hold in lower 70s.

Mlcape should reach as high as 2000 j kg but mid level lapse
rates are weak and 0-3km shear is a bit lower than yesterday,
only around 20 kt.

While main synoptic scale forcing will be located to our west
near the approaching short wave, combination of instability and
some lift is expected to lead to scattered showers and storms,
especially west of worcester county. Individual pulse storms may
be able to form small bows or line segments with potential for
isolated wind damage in stronger storms, as well as localized
minor flooding. Href shows this scenario well, keeping higher
probs for stronger updraft helicity to our west.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Early morning update...

as we saw last night, showers and storms will linger into
evening due to lingering instability, although threat of strong
or isolated severe storms should diminish quickly around sunset.

Another warm and muggy night is ahead along with return of low
clouds and fog, which may be dense again along south coast, cape
cod, and islands. Lows only fall back into mid 60s to lower 70s.

Next short wave and weakening front approach sne Monday. Temps
aloft become a bit warmer which supports a hot and humid day
with highs in 80s to around 90, and heat index values of up to
105. Later shifts will need to consider heat advisories for
parts of area.

While this will also lead to higher CAPE values, these
warmer temps aloft should help keep a lid on organized shower
or thunderstorm activity, although we should still see a few
storms try to develop later in the day. Despite weak mid level
lapse rates and weak shear, higher CAPE may lead to a few strong
storms.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
18 12z guidance continues to indicate a series of mid level
shortwaves tracking through southern new england thru mid week
in a progressive flow, while ridging and much weaker flow
prevails across the southern us. Also the potential continues
for a cold front to drop into sne on Tuesday. However it is not
expected to push south of our area, but rather stall then
advance northward as a warm front by Wednesday. Since the very
humid airmass remains over our area thru midweek, the short
waves and stalling frontal boundary will bring a continued risk
for showers and thunderstorms at times. Some showers, and any
thunderstorms, will be capable of producing localized
downpours.

At this point for Tuesday, we have heat indices as high as the low
90s, which is just short of the multi-day critera. However this will
need to be monitored closely.

A more progressive cold front will finally cross our region
sometime Thursday into Thursday night. Once this front passes,
high pressure should take over. Humidity will become much more
comfortable Friday into Saturday with slightly below normal
temperatures expected. Some moderation in temperatures may occur
on Sunday as the high becomes centered offshore, but the
subsidence is expected to bring another dry day for the weekend.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR conditions, except MVFR-ifr CIGS linger along s
coastal terminals through around 18z. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop during afternoon, mainly along and NW of a
line from bdl-orh-lwm.

Conditions lower to ifr lifr in low clouds and fog tonight,
especially across ri and E ma, as showers storms weaken. Repeat
for Monday with improvement toVFR by 15z-18z then another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Conditions should
lower to lifr for a few hours before sunrise.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Timing of ifr
conditions may be too soon.

Outlook Monday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shra, isolated tsra.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Light S SW flow and flat seas will prevail through Monday as a
series of fronts weaken as they reach the coastal waters.

Pattern favors the usual increase in winds and seas this
afternoon and Monday afternoon on nearshore south coastal
waters with gusts of 15-20kt and seas locally 2 or 3 ft.

Main concern will be areas of dense fog this morning and again
late tonight and Monday morning.

Outlook Monday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Monday for ctz002-003.

Ma... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Monday for maz011.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Evt nmb
near term... Belk evt
short term... Jwd
long term... Nmb
aviation... Evt nmb
marine... Nmb jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 9 mi74 min SE 9.7 G 9.7 70°F 69°F2 ft1015.6 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi28 min E 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 70°F2 ft1014.5 hPa (-0.4)71°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 22 mi78 min SE 15 G 15 68°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)67°F
44073 26 mi134 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 68°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 26 mi40 min 68°F2 ft
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi93 min E 2.9 82°F 1016 hPa72°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi48 min 76°F 1015.5 hPa
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 38 mi74 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 68°F2 ft1015.8 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 40 mi28 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 69°F 2 ft1016.1 hPa (-0.3)69°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 46 mi48 min SSE 6 G 7 69°F 65°F1016.2 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 48 mi78 min E 4.1 69°F 68°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA17 mi85 minSE 1110.00 miFair75°F71°F89%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBVY

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7E5E4------------------CalmCalmW3334SW43S8SE11SE10
1 day ago--SE11SE8--SE6SE4------SE4SE5--SE4SE5SE6--SE6SE7SE7SE8SE7SE7SE5SE9
2 days agoSE9--SE6SE5SE4SE4CalmCalmN4------CalmN3------6SE8SE7SE8SE9--E8

Tide / Current Tables for Rockport, Massachusetts
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Rockport
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Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     9.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:43 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:57 PM EDT     8.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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88.98.986.13.91.80.60.41.12.74.86.88.18.586.64.62.61.20.81.42.84.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
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Sun -- 02:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.37 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:11 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:55 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.300.30.40.40.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.