Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:01PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:16 PM EST (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201910270922;;927514 Fzus73 Kdtx 270913 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-270922- /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0061.000000t0000z-191027t0915z/ 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4266 8255 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8306 4224 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4199 8314 4195 8329 time...mot...loc 0912z 210deg 39kt 4330 8288 4297 8249
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 122101 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 401 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

DISCUSSION.

Very light precipitation potential early this evening for Bay and Midland Counties:

Tail end of convergence forcing from Clipper system swinging through northern Wisconsin is expected to settle down into northern Bay and Midland Counties this evening. No significant change in model output that suggests deep moisture sub 12 kft for a brief time that may be good for ice nucleation within the cloud layer. Some potential exists for drizzle but surface temperatures will be at or a degree below freezing this evening. Will maintain the inherited slight chance PoP this evening as there is some active warm advection. Confidence is low in development of light precipitation.


Uncertainty pertaining to precipitation potential for the eastern CWA daytime Saturday:

The first questionable aspect of the going forecast surrounds the potential for precipitation to clip the extreme eastern cwa Saturday morning to Saturday midday. The operational ECMWF and EPS shows reasonable consistency and high population of members in support of precipitation, whereas the latest 12.12Z operational runs of deterministic NCEP are completely dry. All models are in strong agreement that anomalous southern positioning of the Polar Jet will result in a anticyclonic wave break over Intermountain West with subsequent negative tilt to deep trough and cyclogenesis event east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas up through the Northeast. Where things differ is with the aggressiveness of the (+) anticyclonically curvature tendency of jet entrance region directly over the Central Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This increase in jet forcing sparks due northward moisture transport and allows synoptic scale precipitation to back into portions of the cwa from St Clair county southward along the Rivers. A diagnosis suggests this high end jet development appears to be a combination response from mass convergence of the Northeast low deepening event and the interaction of as many as 3 separate PV anomalies (main wave over AL/GA, loose lead wave energy over western Great Lakes, and strong Potential Vorticity maximum drifting around northern Central Canada west of James Bay. Difficult to pin down explicit likelihood for high jet entrance development given non-linear processes responsible. Instead, like to frame the narrative as one of higher likelihood of precipitation to the east of Metro Detroit during the day on Saturday. Best proximity sounding for low level moisture surge shows plenty of area to the right of freezing isotherm which supports that if precipitation were to occur the daytime Saturday it will be in the form of rain. Temperatures are expected to be above the freezing mark. The forecast temperatures may be too warm if precipitation occurs.


Uncertainty pertaining to minor lake effect snow potential late Saturday night and Sunday:

Uncertainty surrounds the potential for minor snowflake activity Saturday night as differences exist between the deterministic solutions. The main governing factor is to what degree strong midlevel subsidence will build into the state Saturday evening. A stark contrast between the GFS/NAM forecast soundings with the GFS showing high end snow sounding (saturation through 25.0 kft agl thin DGZ centered above modest front signature) and the NAM which shows extreme subsidence inversion. Given timing of the shortwave energy preference at this time favors a drier solution. The going forecast has a chance for snow showers Saturday evening ending by daybreak Sunday.


Contextual discussion for cold air Sunday and Sunday night:

Cold air advection will ensue Saturday evening with the cold air in place for Sunday. Latest information supports -11 to -12C at 850mb which checks out at 1 standard deviation below the mean. Nothing of any significance, highs Sunday will be 5 degrees below mid December normals and near normal lows Sunday night in the lower 20s.


Uncertainty pertaining to winter storm potential impacting Southeast Michigan late Monday and early Tuesday:

Entrance region to 170 knot upper level jet axis will undergo change early next week as entrance region slides east of the Rockies and both secondary Pacific momentum pushes through subgeostrophic region of mean trof and subtropical jet merges into the jet axis over Mexico/Texas. The main forecast question of this package centers on the potential for mid latitude cyclone development and accumulating snow over Southeast Michigan Monday/Tuesday. Stonybrook Ensemble Sensitivity analysis of the 12.00Z GEFS suggests greatest modes of variation are due to the uncertainty (positional and magnitude) of the surface anticyclone over the Great Lakes. The ECMWF has been extremely consistent in being dry with the 12.00Z EPS solutions overwhelmingly dry with just 2/50 solutions suggesting snow accumulations. The GEFS and d(prog)/dt of operational GFS is the opposite with an overwhelming signal for cold deformation snow over the cwa. The CMC sensitivity analsyis strongly supports a slider solution of the low pressure system squeezing northeast through the Tennessee River Valley. Will forgo the GEFS output at this vantage point given undispersion of members shown in the WWE cluster phase space. What is of higher than normal predictability is that if precipitation were to occur, it would fall in the form of snow. The bottom line is the Day 5 (Monday/Tuesday) timeframe remains a period of interest for an accumulating snow event, however, the smart money strongly favors a suppressed southern solution to the mid latitude cyclone, In other words, a dry solution is preferred for Southeast Michigan.

MARINE.

A southerly gradient remains tightened as low pressure tracks to northern Lake Michigan this evening and over the Straights by Friday morning. Mid-level warm advection and a strengthening low-level inversion will keep gusts limited to low-end gales across southern and central Lake Huron despite the 50+ kt low-level jet moving in. A Gale Warning remains in effect through tonight for much of the open waters, while a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the Lake Huron nearshore waters for higher wave activity. Snow across northern Lake Huron will transition to a mix of rain and snow and eventually all rain tonight as warmer air moves in. Winds gradually weaken late tonight into early Friday as the gradient slackens. Broad troughing over the region on Saturday then leads to light winds and a brief period of favorable marine conditions, but northwest wind picks up on Saturday night into Sunday as a strong low pressure system moves to our east.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

AVIATION .

GOES-E visible satellite imagery depicts a temporarily hole within a BKN high cloud deck which overspread much of SE MI during the morning hours. Higher humidity values aloft will hold through the rest of today before an axis of drier air fills in overnight for the southern terminals. A synoptic flow transition is underway (from anticyclonic to cyclonic) as high pressure pushes eastward into Chesapeake Bay while a low to the west lifts northeast, aimed at the Straits of Mackinaw. This has tightened the gradient causing winds to pick up and remain southerly this afternoon. Also in play is a LLJ that will brush the western TAF sites, but stable low-level air will limit the efficiency of mixing, moderating the potential for gusts. Surface winds drop into the single digits overnight as 1700 ft jet enhanced winds exceed 40 knots leading to an extended period of LLWS concern. Dry VFR conditions continue into Friday with sustained southerly flow as a dry warm front lifts into central Lower Michigan.

For DTW . VFR with LLWS concerns overnight. IFR conditions will likely be required with the next TAF update as the column saturates after 00Z Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate for LLWS overnight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LHZ362-363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . CB MARINE . TF AVIATION . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi16 min S 8 G 12 33°F 1027.4 hPa (-3.8)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi46 min S 12 G 15 1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi41 minSSE 14 G 1810.00 miFair32°F22°F68%1024.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi83 minSSE 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast30°F19°F66%1027.5 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi83 minS 11 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F21°F59%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9W7W8W10
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2 days agoSW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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