Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milford, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 9:13PM Sunday July 12, 2020 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 12:05AMMoonset 12:33PM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 520 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 520 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near north cape, moving northeast at 25 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near, north cape around 530 pm edt. Luna pier around 535 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 545 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 550 pm edt. Detroit beach around 555 pm edt. Woodland beach around 600 pm edt. Stony point around 605 pm edt. Estral beach around 610 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach, stony point, estral beach and detroit beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. This a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots, and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives. && lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4179 8348 4196 8332 4196 8328 4198 8328 4205 8318 4203 8314 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341
LCZ423 Expires:202007102215;;643212 FZUS73 KDTX 102120 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 520 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-102215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milford, MI
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location: 42.65, -83.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 121518 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1118 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

UPDATE.

Update this morning to just better account for the slight chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening. Two areas that might get a shower or storm would be along and south of 8 mile anytime after Noon into the very early evening, and then around the Tri-Cities, maybe as far south as FNT from 22z to 02z.

The first region associated with the northern extent of the shortwave moving southeast through northern IN and into central OH. ML CAPEs do get above 500 J/kg and could approach 1000 J/kg. The second area is on the lead edge of the northern shortwave diving through Lake Huron tonight. Maybe get ML CAPEs to 500 J/kg in the northwest part of the forecast area. Nothing more than a 20 percent chance this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the dense circus and hi altocu was moving out and will be replaced by a broken deck of diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Temps on track for the forecast highs in the mid 70s in the thumb to around 80 everywhere else.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 601 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

AVIATION .

An area of denser mid-high cloud spilling off waning convection crossing the Ohio Valley will track eastward over the southern terminals this morning. Once this moisture clears into Canada, VFR sky conditions will mainly be governed by diurnal cumulus. Bases will reside within the 6-8 kft AGL layer during the afternoon with primarily SCT-BKN coverage. A brief isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon for DTW/YIP, but location and timing specifics are too ambiguous to warrant a TAF mention. 5-10 knot northwest flow veers northeasterly this evening with gusts to just 15 knots in the absence of meaningful jet dynamics. Dry conditions expected on Monday with light northerly winds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today.

* Low for thunderstorms this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

DISCUSSION .

While the main shortwave feature and assoicated convection will remain well southwest of the the forecast area, vorticity lobe associated with this feature will pivot through the region today and provide a fair coverage of diurnal cumulus and widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated storm or two as SBCAPE approach 500 J/kg during peak heating this afternoon. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler than Saturday as a cooler airmass continues to spill into the area within northwest flow pattern.

This will be reinforced further as a strong shortwave pivots through Ontario and brushes just east/northeast of the area tonight into Monday morning. This will maintain high temperatures around 80 on Monday with lows dropping into the 50s in many areas (away from the urban heat island) tonight. The lobe of cool air associated with this features looks to be sufficient to bring neutral to weakly unstable low level conditions over Lake Huron as H85 temperatures dip below 10C for a short time in the immediate wake of the wave. This will promote a fair amount of strato-cu over the Thumb region late tonight into at least Monday morning with isolated/scattered showers.

Upper heights then build into the area with shortwave ridging in between this exiting Ontario shortwave and broad upper troughing centered over the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This will lead to the beginning of the next warming trend as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s on Tuesday into Wednesday with humidity levels creeping up again by Wednesday within south/southwest flow in advance of a small but vigorous shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the broad upper trough to the west.

This shortwave promises to bring the most active period of weather in this forecast as shower chances increase Wednesday with a weak leading ripple of energy followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night as the main shortwave progresses east to northeast through the region. Highest POPs will remain positioned on the Wednesday night period given the timing of this feature in the 00z model cycle.

Upper heights then increase late in the week and remain relatively high into next weekend as upper ridging over the central portions of the CONUS expands east/northeast into the southern Great Lakes from late Thursday on into Saturday. High temperatures will return to around 90 degree by Friday and lower 90s on Saturday as the humidity level also gradually increases during the late week period. While the forecast will be relatively dry during this time frame, expect isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven convection focused mainly on lake breeze boundaries. This daily activity may be supported to a small degree by weak shortwave impulses rippling around the top of the upper ridge as the core of the the upper ridge/high remains position well to the south and southwest of the Great Lakes.

MARINE .

Weak and diffuse high pressure will continue building across the central Great Lakes today as an area of weak low pressure moves southeast across the northern Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will veer more northerly and remain moderate at times as slightly cooler air moving into the region behind a passing reinforcing secondary cold front helps to yield a neutral to unstable stability profile over the local waters amidst a lingering pressure gradient. Gusts around 25 knots will be possible, especially through the morning hours over the open Lake Huron waters, with nearshore waters seeing gusts generally in the 15-20 knot range. Northerly winds will continue through early next week but trend lighter as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure strengthens over the Great Lakes. Generally dry weather will prevail over the local waters heading into the middle of next week outside of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Sunday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . RBP AVIATION . KK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 47 mi116 min WNW 5.1 G 8 74°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 68 mi56 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 75°F 1009.7 hPa (+0.0)62°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI13 mi61 minN 410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F57°F64%1010.5 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI17 mi63 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F57°F59%1009 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi63 minWNW 810.00 miLight Rain69°F59°F70%1009.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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W11NW9W7W9W9W6W5W4W4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3NW3N3NW5Calm
1 day agoN3E3S7SE7S4CalmCalmW5
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2 days agoCalmS6S4S5SW6S4SE5SW5NW5CalmW7E6E3E7SE4SE6SE6SE5S3SE5CalmW3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.