Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:15 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 280955 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 555 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today and Monday before a cold front arrives Monday night bringing dry weather for Tuesday.

- Total rainfall amounts over the next two days to around 1.00" possible, particularly across the Tri-Cities and Thumb.

- Well above normal temperatures expected continue through this week.

AVIATION

Showers and thunderstorms coincident with a stalling frontal boundary have struggled to materialize near mbS as most of the TAF sites are off to a dry start. A plume of moisture lifts northward over the Ohio border this morning spurring expanding coverage of showers and lower ceilings, mainly MVFR during the period of precipitation. Some of these showers could produce embedded updrafts capable of a few rumbles of thunder. Made some adjustments to duration. Activity likely lingers over the northern sites (FNT/MBS and perhaps PTK) throughout the day as the front stalls along M-46 and continues triggering scattered convection through the evening and early overnight hours.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Decaying showers eventually encroach on the airspace this morning while confidence in thunderstorm activity remains rather low. Coverage will be scattered with timing centered between 12Z and 15Z. It's also quite possible that the thunderstorms hold just barely off toward the northwest. This activity then lifts northward offering a mainly dry forecast for the afternoon and overnight hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms this morning and afternoon.

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning and afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually moving into the Tri-Cities early this morning ahead of a slow moving frontal draped from southern WI into northern lower Michigan. A secondary area of showers and thunderstorms is lifting into Lower Michigan within a zone of higher 850-500 mb theta-e-e advecting northward.
Mesoanalysis shows weakening MLCAPE throughout the morning hours over the Tri-Cities along with weakening mid-level lapse rates which should support continued weakening of these showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours. The secondary area of showers lifting in from Indiana and northwest Ohio will also be encountering an unfavorable environment as they arrive in Michigan with mid-level dry air and limited instability. This should result in mainly showers with a few rumbles thunderstorms possible through 12Z across Lower Michigan.

Persistent theta-e advection will carry through the morning with greater large scale forcing holding largely to the west. The presence of the stationary boundary will be enough to provide a continued focus for convergence bringing more showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon. A very warm airmass remains in place that supported high temperatures yesterday in the low 80s at many locations. The mostly cloudy skies with expected showers and thunderstorms will likely tamper highs down slightly from yesterday. This is especially true for northern portions of the CWA where scattered showers and thunderstorms become more focused during the afternoon. Expecting a 15 to 20 degree temperature gradient from north to south. North of the frontal boundary that settles roughly near the I-69 corridor will see daytime highs in the 60 to 70 degree range. South of the frontal boundary will see highs in the mid to upper 70s with some spots near the OH border possibly reaching 80 degrees. These areas look to remain mostly dry by 18Z and through the evening. Cannot completely remove PoPs from the forecast for tonight across northern portions of the CWA The lingering boundary and persistent moist southwest flow will continue to touch off mostly elevated scattered showers and thunderstorms supported by weak instability and mid level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km.

Stacked surface low and upper trough lifts into the upper Midwest Monday morning putting southeast Michigan fully back in the warm sector after the aforementioned stationary boundary is drawn northward. The exiting boundary brings potential for a mostly dry Monday morning. Increasing southwest gradient flow will bring an uptick in winds on Monday. Flow at 850 mb increases to 30-40 knots, though mixing depth will be limited. Gusts on Monday look top out around 20 knots. Widespread rain chances return by Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front that will sweep through southeast Michigan Monday night. Thunderstorms will again be possible with increasing daytime instability. Strong flow will increase shear and a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE look possible Monday afternoon.

Dry and slightly cooler conditions expected in the wake of the front on Tuesday with highs down to around 70 and winds out of the west.
Uncertainty in synoptic features exists for Wednesday as several wave interactions occur across the northern plains/Upper Midwest into southern Canada. Regardless, an active pattern should set up during the latter half of the week with warm advection returning highs into the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

MARINE...

A cold front will start to significantly slow down and stall across central Michigan through the Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron this morning. This will be the focal point for showers and possible thunderstorms, with increasing coverage for locations south through the remaining morning hours as the frontal boundary very gradually wavers to the south. The intrusion of shallow near surface cold air behind the front will only reinforce stability over the lakes with very warm air aloft, which will act to inhibit the stronger winds aloft from mixing to the surface. Some isolated gusts around 25 knots cannot be ruled out with any thunderstorm activity. Shower and some isolated thunderstorm activity will pivot back north into Lake Huron through the afternoon and evening hours along the wavering frontal boundary.

A very shallow mixing layer is expected to develop tomorrow morning across north to north-central Lake Huron which will allow for some localized higher wind gust potential with flow coming from the northeast. Gusts around 30 knots will be probable through the first half of the day on Monday, along with the continuation for rain shower and thunderstorm potential. The mixing layer will shrink through the evening, decreasing wind gust potential leading into Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY...

A stalled frontal boundary will provide a focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms this morning through tomorrow evening.
The first wave of rainfall will be throughout the course of today.
Showers and thunderstorms become more focus across northern portions of the CWA by this afternoon with scattered activity continuing into tonight. A break in widespread activity Monday morning before more widespread showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon/evening.
Total rainfall amounts from 8 am this morning through 2 am Tuesday will reach 0.75" to 1.00", mostly for areas along and north of I-69 and for portions of Oakland and Livingston County. Rainfall amounts of 0.25" to 0.50" can be expected for the remaining areas. While significant flooding is not expected at this time, expect minor flooding in prone urban and poor drainage areas and possibly notable rises in area rivers, especially to the north.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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