Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fennville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:39PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:41 PM EDT (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 10:47PMMoonset 11:40AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1105 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots backing north 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots veering northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ845 Expires:201908212100;;987000 FZUS53 KGRR 211505 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-212100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fennville, MI
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location: 42.65, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 211510
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1110 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 300 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
- scattered showers and a few storms this afternoon
- dry weather tonight through the weekend
- cooler and much less humid Thursday through Saturday

Update
Issued at 1110 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
no real changes are needed to the going forecast this morning for
today. Cold front looks to still be situated just north of the
area, and through much of wi as of 15z this morning. There is good
model consensus that the better instability and sfc convergence
along the front will be across the eastern portion of the area
this afternoon. Instability could climb up to as high as 2000 j kg
briefly, before the front comes through and stabilizes the
atmosphere.

We will have the highest chances of showers storms across the ne
corner of the area where the best instability and convergence will
overlap closer to the sfc low. Even there though, we are not
expecting anything more than scattered coverage with limited
magnitude of the convergence.

We can not rule out a strong storm with anything that develops.

Deep layer shear values of 30 knots or so up north would help with
that cause. However the window of opportunity up there is small
with the frontal passage, that it does not look likely. Much less
shear toward the south and east where instability will linger a
bit longer.

Discussion (today through next Tuesday)
issued at 300 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
primary fcst concerns involve determining convective potential
later today. In addition to scattered showers the cold front will
bring potential for a few thunderstorms this afternoon.

It is noted that trends in the latest cams and 00z href members
have backed off on convective potential somewhat as compared to
earlier guidance runs. This since instability particularly over
our SE fcst area does not look as it will be quite as strong as
guidance indicated in previous model runs. In fact the latest
ecmwf only has around 1000 j kg of sb CAPE later today which is
significantly less than it indicated yesterday.

Nevertheless at least a few thunderstorms are expected this aftn
mainly over our SE E fcst area where instability will be
relatively stronger just prior to fropa. Svr wx is unlikely given
lack of stronger instability.

Otherwise areas of fog will continue to develop early this morning
and will gradually dissipate during the mid morning hours. Fair wx
is forecast tonight through the rest of the week and weekend as a
high pressure ridge will take hold of our wx pattern. Temps will
be seasonably cooler late this week through the weekend with high
temps in the 70's and low temps in the 40's up north to the 50's
near to south of the i-96 corridor.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 732 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
the dense fog in places will gradually give way to scattered to
brokenVFR deck of clouds this morning. There will be some rain
showers forming mainly early this afternoon with a local
thunderstorm possible mainly toward kjxn. Wind will increase as a
well this afternoon with some gusts over 20 knots possible. Then
tonight the wind decreases with some risk for fog later tonight.

Marine
Issued at 300 am edt Wed aug 21 2019
winds and waves will ramp up later today after cold frontal
passage with highest waves of around 3 to 4 feet forecast this
afternoon and evening. Strongly considered a small craft
advisory beach hazards statement but based on a consensus of
latest guidance it was felt conditions will likely remain just
below SCA criteria. Relatively minimal wind speeds and wave
heights are forecast late this week into the weekend with fair
wx.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Njj
synopsis... Laurens
discussion... Laurens
aviation... Mjs
marine... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 11 mi53 min WSW 5.1 G 6 73°F 1013.7 hPa71°F
45029 20 mi31 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 73°F 73°F1 ft1013.4 hPa68°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 20 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 74°F
45168 22 mi31 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 75°F1 ft1014.3 hPa69°F
45161 40 mi41 min WNW 5.8 G 5.8 73°F 72°F1 ft1013.6 hPa (+0.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 42 mi41 min NW 6 G 6 74°F 1012.9 hPa (+0.0)70°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 44 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 11 77°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI7 mi1.8 hrsW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1013.7 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI22 mi66 minW 510.00 miFair79°F72°F81%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBIV

Wind History from BIV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7W8W9----NE43Calm----SW4------SW4--CalmCalmCalm----W9W8
1 day ago--W5SW7--6W7W5NW4CalmCalmCalm--------E4NE6CalmCalmE3E3E3S6SW8
2 days agoS5S15S16
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W10W8NW6NW4Calm--Calm--Calm----CalmS3CalmCalmSE4--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.