Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Adams, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:22PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:06 PM EST (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 11:17AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Adams, MA
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location: 42.66, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 152138 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 438 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build into the region late tonight and into Monday. A storm system expected to pass near the waters of Southern New England will bring a round of wintry weather Monday night into Tuesday with accumulations of snow and ice to parts of interior Massachusetts, Connecticut into northern Rhode Island. A major Arctic blast moves in Wednesday night, accompanied by strong wind gusts, possible snow squalls, and very low wind chills. Dry and cold weather Thursday into Saturday. Low chances for snow showers Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. W to WNW gradient flow continues in the wake of a strong 970 mb cyclone now moving into northern Quebec. Steep low-level lapse rates has promoted mixing with a blustery day with W/NWly gusts 35-45 mph, occasionally at Wind Advisory levels across parts of MA. Wind Advisories for most of MA still appear valid and will continue. Lake- effect moisture has also contributed to intervals of stratocu especially central/western MA into northern CT with a few flurries around falling from these at times towards the Berkshires. While the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat towards overnight, gusts should continue with even colder air (850 mb temps -10 to -12C) building into the region tonight fostering continued good mixing. Should see gusts 30-40 mph early this evening/before midnight then gusting to 20-30 mph overnight, highest towards the Outer Cape and Nantucket. Kept lows in the upper teens to the 20s given that radiational cooling should still be quite good, though continued winds/gusts overnight offsets this to an extent.

Ridging then settles over the region on Monday, with lightening wind speeds and thermal advection transitioning from neutral to weak warm advection late. We start the day mostly sunny, but sun becomes increasingly filtered from SW to NE by afternoon and by early evening toward mostly cloudy/OVC south coast northward to the Mass Pike and partly to mostly cloudy for northern MA. How warm temperatures can get before the clouds come in is pretty critical, though most guidance shows 2-m wet bulb temperatures by sunset that are in the low to mid 20s and near 30 towards the Cape. Kept highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s with light W winds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.

** Accumulation of snow and ice to impact travel Tuesday **

We continue to monitor developments regarding another round of accumulating wintry weather for the very late Monday night into Tuesday timeframe. While most areas are expected to begin as snow, warmer air aloft should transition initial period of snow over to a wintry mix across a good part of the interior. While confidence continues to increase as it pertains to projected and envisioned impact, timing the changeovers between p-types and on the northward extent of precip remain the biggest sources of uncertainty on the snow and ice accumulation forecasts.

Today's guidance has trended a bit slower on onset by a few hours and also slightly further south; thermal structure is slightly colder as well in most of the guidance. Given the slower tendency, this may allow enough time for temperatures to cool further with good confidence that snow should be falling as initial p-type at onset.

Surface wave will be moving from the northern VA Blue Ridge to coastal SE NJ by 12z Tuesday. Clouds should be on the increase through the first part of Monday night, though given antecedent dry low-levels, initial precip towards central CT, coastal RI, into coastal SE Mass doesn't appear to start until early overnight. As precipitation lifts northward and eventually overspreads to the Mass Pike by the northern end of the warm nose by the pre-dawn hrs, warmer air aloft will be transitioning the southern end of the precip shield over to sleet and eventually freezing rain across much of northern CT into northern/central RI by daybreak. North of the Pike towards I-95 and Route 2, an uptick in snow intensity toward moderate and even briefly heavy at times as southerly flow increases with the so-called front-end thump (GFS shows a related ribbon of 850-700 mb frontogenetic forcing that builds northward during the 09- 15z timeframe from Springfield-Worcester northward into southern VT/NH that could spur some steadier snowbands). Even though models have slowed down the timing by a few hours, we're still looking at the Tuesday morning commute becoming adversely impacted by accumulations of snow/sleet and freezing rain.

Even as precipitation is expected to continue on Tuesday, there remains uncertainty in precipitation type due to varied handling of thermal structure, and this is especially the case for after the AM commute. ECMWF remains the coldest of all the guidance and would keep accumulating snow or snow/sleet going across most areas N/W of I-95. It's also cold enough for mainly snow even towards the North Shore into the Boston area. Most of the other guidance keeps mainly snow or snow/sleet into the Berks and along/north of Route 2, with max warm nose temps of +1 to +3C supporting sleet/freezing rain from the Mass Pike south into northern CT/northern RI. Tough call toward the North Shore and into the Boston area; did show rain/snow mix by afternoon, but if the surface low keeps shifting south and forces winds to be ageostrophically more from N/NNW versus E/ENE, it could help to draw colder/freezing temperatures in for a longer period of time than a more onshore component would provide. While most of the interior shakes out to be continued "wintry", and SE Mass and the coast will have transitioned over to rain, colder air on the backside of the system should result in a southeastward changeover to snow during the late day hrs (PM commute into early Tues night) areawide, though amounts are less than during the first part of the day as the system pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes.

Accumulations were in general little changed from prior forecasts; I did increase snow totals across northern MA given the FGen signal in the GFS during the late-overnight/early Tuesday period, while also reducing the amount of freezing rain in CT/northern-central RI by a few hundreths (e.g. towards more sleet). We are still calling for 2- 5" for areas north of the Mass Pike and N/W of I-95 (with locally up to a half-foot pending steadier bands, best chance in the eastern Berks). Something in the 2-3" range with increasing freezing rain towards a tenth near the Mass Pike to near two tenths to the Hartford-northern Providence area. Looking at a slushy couple inches or less toward the E/SE Mass, central/southern RI and towards the Cape.

At the moment, this has the look of a solid Advisory event with combo of snow/icing for a large part of the interior (thinking mainly N/W of I-95). Greatest impacts during the Tuesday AM commute into the Tuesday morning period; with a second round of travel difficulties possible into the PM commute, though snow amounts here should be more manageable. After collaboration with NWS Albany, and with it being a mainly Tuesday (late Period 3/Period 4) event, will hold on issuing Advisories with this package to allow another set of model data to be re- evaluated to try to better firm up thermal structure and p-type changeovers.

Lows Monday night into the 20s with slow rises by daybreak; highs on Tuesday mainly in the upper 20s to near freezing N/W of I-95, lower 30s towards the North Shore into Providence and upper 30s towards the Cape.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Scattered snow showers late Wed afternoon into early Wed night with some snow squalls possible.

* Major Arctic blast comes in Wed night, accompanied by strong gusty winds and Wind Chill Indices from -10 to -20 degrees in central and western sections. Details .

Tuesday night . Lingering light snow and rain comes to an end from west to east by around midnight, except on outer Cape Cod, where a mix of rain and snow could linger overnight. Lows in the 20s, except 30 to 35 Cape Cod and the Islands.

Wednesday . Skies will be partly cloudy with some widely scattered snow showers across the higher terrain and possibly across Cape Cod and the Islands. A major Arctic cold front will approach western areas late in the afternoon.

Wednesday night . A major Arctic cold front will blast across the region before midnight. it may be accompanied by a band of snow squalls. BUFKIT soundings and modeled winds aloft show a 3 to 6 hour window of very strong wind gusts . perhaps 40 to 50+ mph . after the front passes. Gales likely over the coastal waters. 850 mb temperatures will dive to about -23C across the region. Surface temperatures will plummet to 0 to 10 above, except 10 to 15 in RI and southeast MA. Wind Chill Indices will drop to 0 to -8 in eastern MA, RI, and northern CT . and to -10 to -20 in central and western MA, where Wind Chill Advisories may be needed.

Thursday through Friday .

Expecting dry conditions with the frigid air mass in place and high pressure advancing eastward from the Ohio Valley. Highs Thursday will remain in the teens in western areas and only reach the lower to mid 20s in northern CT, RI, and southeast MA. It will still be windy, especially over the coastal waters. Wind Chill Indices will range from 5 below zero to 10 above zero all day. Bundle up!

It should be noted that the ECMWF is more pronounced with the upper low than other models and correspondingly spins up a surface low over the waters well east of southern New England. ECMWF ensembles are farther east than the operational run. Will need to keep an eye on this in case the trend is for any snow showers to back into eastern MA as a result of that potential system.

Another super cold night is expected Thursday night. Lows again in the single digits and teens, except could get a degree or two below zero in Franklin County, MA and could be in the lower 20s over the Islands. At least winds will be significantly diminished Thursday night.

Some moderation in temperatures is expected Friday, with highs in the 20s, with lower 30s Cape Cod and the Islands.

Saturday and Sunday . The high pressure area moves offshore Saturday. Significant model disagreement on whether weak low pressure develops over the region by Sunday. For now, have increasing cloudiness Saturday night and Sunday with a chance of snow showers . possibly rain showers near the coast . by Sunday. This is low confidence at this point. Still cold, with highs in the 30s both days and lows mainly in the 20s.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/ .

21z TAF Update:

Through 00z Monday . High confidence.

VFR, with continued gusty W/WNW winds 15-25 kt gusts to 30-37 kt early. Outside chance of a flurry at BAF.

Tonight . High confidence.

VFR conditions. W/WNW winds still gusty around 30 kt early, though steady decrease in winds/gusts to 8-12 kts with gusts 20-22 kts by overnight as pressure gradient slackens.

Monday . High confidence. VFR with lightening/easing winds as ridge builds in. Expecting a gradual lowering/thickening of cloudiness late day.

Monday Night . Moderate confidence.

VFR to deteriorate to MVFR-IFR after 05z with snow and wintry mix. Snow may fall at moderate-intensity or even briefly heavy for a time by daybreak N of ORH-BAF-BED. Should see transition from snow to wintry mix (or snow to rain towards the coast) though only moderate confidence on timing p-type changeovers. Winds become NE 6-10 kts.

Tuesday . Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR to MVFR. Snow to wintry mix in the interior with cold rain towards SE Mass, Providence into Cape Cod will eventually transition back to light snow by Tuesday evening. Best chance of slickened runways N/W of I-95 where wintry weather is the most prolonged. N/NE winds become N-NW 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, chance FZRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tuesday/ .

Gale warnings continue on most waters with rough seas. Decreasing trends to winds and seas over the next 24 hrs, with existing gale warnings eventually to be replaced with SCAs. E/NE winds then increase Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front approaches the southern coast.

Tonight: W/NW winds at gales thru midnight, then decreasing to 15-25 kts gusts 25-35 kts. Seas decreasing from 8-12 ft to 6-10 ft, highest offshore. Good visibility.

Monday: W/NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts (highest offshore/eastern) decrease to 5-10 kts. Seas 6-8 ft, decrease below 5 ft by midday to 2-4 ft levels by early Monday evening. Good visibility.

Monday Night: Light winds early become E/NE around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts southern waters. Seas around 2-4 ft. Wintry mix toward the southern waters after midnight.

Tuesday: Probable period of SCAs. E/ENE winds 10-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts eastern offshore waters. Seas build to 5-8 ft on southern/southeastern waters. Wintry mix to rain with visibility 1-3 miles.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of snow showers, chance of rain showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of snow showers. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for MAZ023-024. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MAZ002>016-018- 019-021-022-026. RI . Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>234-251-255-256. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ236. Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . Loconto/GAF NEAR TERM . Loconto SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . GAF AVIATION . Loconto/GAF MARINE . Loconto/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 66 mi96 min WSW 8 40°F 1012 hPa22°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 95 mi48 min WNW 19 G 22 42°F 43°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA10 mi74 minW 22 G 3710.00 miOvercast and Breezy33°F18°F54%1011.9 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi72 minWNW 15 G 279.00 miLight Snow32°F19°F61%1011.9 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA22 mi72 minWNW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast32°F21°F64%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmSE4CalmE7E5CalmE10E6E8E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
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Sun -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:46 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:20 PM EST     5.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70-0.20.51.93.23.94.23.93.11.910.50.200.72.33.955.55.44.63.22

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:37 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     4.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:36 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:12 PM EST     5.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.6-0.1-0.20.72.23.344.23.92.91.70.90.50.10.10.92.64.15.15.55.34.431.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.