Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Adams, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:55PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:14 PM EDT (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:55AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Adams, MA
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location: 42.66, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 151406 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1006 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A touch of fall arrives this weekend with high temperatures only in the 70s east of the Connecticut River and a gusty northeast wind. A few spot showers are possible later today and tonight especially towards the coast, but the vast majority of the time will feature dry weather. Another low will likely track far enough south of the region Sunday night to confine the chance for a period of steady showers to mainly the Cape and Islands. Much of Monday may turn out to be dry, but an upper level disturbance may bring some scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms late Monday night. Seasonable temperatures return Tuesday and continue through the end of the work week with dry weather dominating.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

* Unseasonably cool and blustery making for sweatshirt weather in Eastern MA and RI. Western MA and CT will be considerably warmer with more sunshine.

* High Surf Advisories are issued for most beaches.

No major changes to the ongoing forecast this morning. Northeast winds pushed marine stratus well inland, covering most of southern New England. Minor tweaks to sky cover and temperatures to reflect observed trends. Also tweaked precipitation chances this morning. Any accumulations will be light, and already saw a few locations reporting trace amounts this morning. Certainly not going to be a washout. Most likely areas to see measurable rainfall will be across eastern MA.

Previous Discussion Below .

Overall Pattern . A Rex Block regime allows for an unseasonably strong 1025 mb surface high to build down from the Canadian Maritimes. Tropical Storm Kyle tracks southeast of the benchmark. So the anticyclonic and cyclonic flows will help to reinforce the northeast flow today, bringing a taste of fall to much of Southern New England in the form of cool and blustery conditions. The big temperature difference between the near-surface air (+15C at 925mb) and the ocean waters (mid to upper 70s for the southern waters) will help promote good mixing, helping to bring down some of the 30-35 kt winds between 850 and 925 mb. In fact, both the GEFS and NAEFS show the 850mb and 925mb jet at 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal!

00z HREF guidance shows deck of low to mid level marine stratus infiltrating the Eastern half of Southern New England by around daybreak and thickening through the day. As of 330 AM, NT microphysics satellite imagery shows an area of low clouds stretching from Gulf of Maine to Nantucket approaching our area so HREF's timing looks reasonable. Overall, don't expect to see much sunshine today east of the Worcester Hills. 925mb temperatures fall to around +13 to +14C for Eastern MA/RI and together with the thickening cloud cover, expect highs to be in the low 70s, which is more typical for mid September. Would not be surprised to see some locales fail to break 70. It will feel even colder with blustery conditions. If you are going to be spending time outside especially near the coast, it may not be a bad idea to have a sweatshirt handy!

If you prefer warm weather and sunshine, head towards the MA East Slopes and CT River valley. HREF shows the marine stratus reaching as far west as Worcester Hills. May sneak some broken stratus towards Western MA/CT but they are further removed from the center of Kyle so expect the sun to win out. Also, Bufkit shows deep mixing up to 800mb so along with 850mb temperatures at around +13 to +14C, have good confidence that temperatures will overperform in the CT River valley, with highs reaching the low 80s. Another effect of the deep mixing will be dew points are expected to tank in Western MA/CT during the day. With Bufkit showing dew points at top of the mixed layer in the mid 40s, blended in the GFS to lower dew points for Western MA/CT to the low 50s. Further reason to believe that temperatures will overperform given the dry air mass, dry ground (we are currently in a D1 or moderate drought for much of the area) and downsloping winds.

Rain chances wise, expect mostly dry conditions but with a cool northeast flow regime, can't rule out widely scattered to isolated drizzle/light showers associated with the deep marine layer, particularly during the afternoon across Eastern MA and RI. Absolutely by no means a washout but not a great day for the beach either. It would be a nice day for a hike in the interior, however.

In addition, High Surf Advisories have been issued for all beaches except Boston Harbor due to 7-10 ft waves developing from the strong NE flow.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. * Winds diminish during the overnight hours. * Another cool day on tap for Sunday with rain chances increasing by Sunday afternoon. Forecast confidence is low at this time due to model disagreement.

Tonight:

Blustery winds should come down some as the evening progresses. The cloud cover will help prevent temperatures from falling off too quickly. Moreover, as Kyle pulls further offshore, the NE winds would acquire more of an easterly component and 925mb temperatures would warm through the overnight hours from +13C to +15C in Eastern MA and RI. Nonetheless, still a cool night with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s along with less blustery conditions.

We will also be watching an area of disturbance approaching the Mid Atlantic region. Most of the night should be dry but areas along the south coast could see a few sprinkles and showers out ahead of the main system.

Sunday:

The 00z suite of deterministic guidance, including NAM Nest and GFS shows the disturbance closer to the 70W/40N benchmark (usually a guide we use for more significant precipitation on the I-95 corridor in Eastern MA/RI) and a little faster. The 12z EC Ensemble shows a clustering of member lows right around the 70W/40N benchmark. This helps increase confidence that we could see some rainfall on Sunday, especially over Eastern MA/RI later in the day.

At this point, the forecast confidence is low with significant disagreements between global models and the Convection Allowing Models (CAMs). NAM 12km is the most aggressive showing widespread rainfall thanks to a back-bent warm front signature. The 00z EC Ensemble shows only a 20-30% chance of 24-hour rainfall (ending Sunday 8PM) exceeding 0.1 inch. The 00z GFS Ensemble provides a middle ground, showing a 60-80% chance of rainfall for the same period exceeding 0.1 inch and having a sharp cutoff north of the MA Pike.

As for the CAMs, which have a track record of exhibiting good skill for forecasting precipitation within 36 hours, HREF confines the rainfall to the south coast. This would put the NAM solution as an outlier. But since we are still 36 hours out, will use a blend of guidance for now, which shows higher rainfall chances in Eastern MA and RI and especially along the South Coast and the Cape and Islands. But even a 50 mile track shift to the west will put much of S New England in play for appreciable rainfall. Stay tuned!

We are confident that temperatures will remain below climatological average on Sunday, however. There will be considerable cloud cover for much of the day across the entire region out ahead of the aforementioned system. With 925mb temperatures between +14 to +16 and a stout easterly flow, expect widespread highs in the mid to upper 70s. In other words, a little warmer for Eastern/RI and a little cooler for Western MA/CT than on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Highlights .

* Low pressure tracks far enough south Sun night to confine the chance for a period of steady showers to mainly the Cape/Islands

* Still rather cool on Monday across eastern New England

* Scattered showers/isolated t-storms possible late Mon night

* Seasonable temps return Tue through Fri with mainly dry weather

Details .

Sunday night .

Main issue is northwest extent of rain shield with low pressure tracking near the Benchmark. The 00z NAM appears to be an outlier in bringing heavy rain all the way back into interior southern New England. We think this solution is a rather low probability given little support from other models or GEFS/EPS. Meanwhile, the GFS/CMC shows a period of steady rain impacting the Cape & Islands while the ECMWF/UK keep much of it offshore.

So while there is quite a bit of uncertainty, it appears the risk for a period of steady showers will be confined to the Cape/Islands along with gusty NE winds Sun night. Further northwest, a few showers/drizzle are are possible with onshore flow but any rainfall amounts would be quite light. Low temps will be in the upper 50s to the middle 60s with gusty NE winds on the Cape/Islands.

Monday .

Surface wave departs, but onshore flow may result in some scattered showers lingering across southeast New England during part of the morning. Low clouds may be slow to dissipate in eastern New England, so high temps may only be in the 70s depending on how that unfolds. Greatest chance for breaking 80 will be across western MA/CT, where partial sunshine may emerge earlier. Much of the day will probably be dry after any lingering morning showers depart the southeast New England coast.

Monday night .

Decent shortwave will cross the region late Monday night. 500T drop to between -12C to -14C, which might be enough to steepen mid level lapse rates enough to generate some MUCape. Therefore, we feel there is a risk for scattered showers and perhaps a bit of embedded thunder overnight. Uncertain on potential areal coverage or if there is enough instability for thunder, but something will have to monitor with later model runs.

Tuesday through Friday .

Upper trough sets up across the eastern states, but westerly flow should generate seasonable mid August temperatures. Highs should mainly be in the 80s, at least away from the immediate coast/localized sea breeze potential. Humidity levels will also be kept in check for August standards, so a rather nice stretch of weather. Overall, dry weather should dominate over this period but a few showers are possible from time to time.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today: High confidence.

Widespread MVFR with localized IFR conditions for most terminals from Worcester/Providence east due to a thickening marine layer. NE winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt between 16 to 18z for Eastern MA and RI terminals. Cape terminals, especially ACK could even see gusts up to 35 kt at times as Tropical Storm Kyle passes well to our southeast. For interior terminals like BDL and BAF, mainly VFR conditions with NE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

IFR to MVFR ceilings for most terminals, including the interior terminals. NE winds at 5 to 10 kts except up to 15 kts with 25 kt gusts for the Cape/Islands terminals.

Sunday: Moderate confidence.

MVFR to low end VFR ceilings for most terminals, including the interior terminals. NE winds at 5 to 10 kts except up to 15 kts with 20 kt gusts for terminals on the Cape and those towards the South Coast.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE. Today:

Small Craft Advisories posted for all waters due to NE winds gusting up to 30 kts for most waters, but a few gusts approaching 35 knots possible for ACK sound points south and east. Did not have enough confidence in those wind gusts being widespread enough to upgrade to any Gale headlines. However, later shifts will have to monitor. Building seas 7 to 10 ft for outer waters.

Tonight:

Small Craft Advisories continue for most outer waters. NE winds diminish below 20 kts but seas remain elevated at 6 to 9 ft.

Sunday:

Small Craft Advisories continue for most outer waters with seas remaining elevated at 6 to 9 ft.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-019- 022>024. RI . High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ232>235-237- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Chai NEAR TERM . Belk/Frank/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . Frank AVIATION . Belk/Frank/Chai MARINE . Frank/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 66 mi105 min SSW 1 80°F 1016 hPa66°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 95 mi69 min NE 5.1 G 8 79°F 77°F1016 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Adams Harriman-and-West Airport, MA10 mi23 minESE 15 G 2010.00 miFair78°F60°F54%1018.3 hPa
Bennington Morse State Airport, VT21 mi21 minSE 11 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds79°F60°F52%1017.7 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA22 mi21 minESE 10 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds75°F60°F60%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAQW

Wind History from AQW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E6E9E9
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1 day agoNW3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4E5N4Calm
2 days ago44W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4NW643

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:43 AM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:08 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.24.74.94.33.42.51.810.2-00.71.82.73.33.63.32.61.71.10.6-0-0.20.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:35 AM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:00 PM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:34 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.44.34.84.84.23.22.41.70.90.100.922.83.33.63.32.41.610.5-0.1-0.10.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.