Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 14, 2019 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201910270922;;342001 Fzus73 Kdtx 270913 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-270922- /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0061.000000t0000z-191027t0915z/ 513 Am Edt Sun Oct 27 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4266 8255 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8306 4224 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4199 8314 4195 8329 time...mot...loc 0912z 210deg 39kt 4330 8288 4297 8249
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 140807 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 307 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

DISCUSSION.

The 00z DTX Raob indicated a good amount of dry air below 700 mb, which probably will be just enough to keep southeast Michigan dry, as both 00z NAM/ARW keeping measurable precipitation just to our east. It certainly is a close call as the negative tilted upper level trough lifts into the Mid Atlantic States, but with precipitation struggling to reach the ground in much of northern Indiana/NW Ohio, see no compelling reason to adjust inherited pops for today.

Northwest winds gradually increasing today ushering in colder air to the Central Great Lakes region, as shortwave trough over the upper Mississippi River Valley arrives late tonight, sending 850 mb temps down into the negative lower teens. Low level cyclonic flow/convergence should be enough to focus some lake effect activity, with NAM indicating a I-94 band briefly setting up around 9Z (per 925 mb omega field), but remaining progressive and sagging south. Thermal profiles are not great, with just about all the modest cape/super-saturation with respect to ice above -10 C as inversion heights hang between 5-6 kft level. Thus, expecting most locations underneath the band(s) to see less than one inch. With the marginal thermal profiles, there is a non-zero chance we struggle to obtain ice nuclei with the precipitation, but freezing drizzle threat appears too low to mention in zones.

The race is then on for Monday, as an upper level wave rounds the bend over the Four Corners region, with equally important upper level wave/trough over south Central Canada approaching and swinging through Ontario Monday morning. 00z GFS/Euro/Icon now suggesting the northern stream wave will be faster, leading to mostly upper level confluent flow over Lower Michigan, with a weaker and more subdued southern wave tracking along or just south of the Ohio River. The 00z NAM is on the opposite end, with a faster and stronger (farther north) southern wave, with still a bunch of GFS ensemble members providing support to this solution. Will continue to highlight the potential for several inches of snow as NAM brings in 3-4 g/kg of specific humidity in the 850-700 layer, but the jury is still out with the 00z Euro remaining a key witness, and confidence remains low.

A glancing blow of Arctic air for the mid week period (850 mb temps in the negative mid teens), as the deep polar upper level low swings into New England. Ridging at all levels progged to build in by Thursday, supporting warmer/normal temps to end the work week.

MARINE.

Broad troughing will move over the Great Lakes this weekend leading to an uptick in northwesterly winds which will usher in arctic air into tonight. This will bring good lake instability while a low pressure system also lifts across the eastern US and tightens the northwest pressure gradient. The result will be a gradual increase in winds late tonight and early Sunday morning with marginal gale force over the north half of Lake Huron. The cold northwest flow will also lead to building waves along the northern Thumb shoreline resulting in hazardous boating conditions for small crafts. Winds will then decrease into Sunday afternoon as high pressure begins to build into the region. This will lead to more favorable marine conditions into early next week with light winds and low waves. Next chance at unsettled marine conditions will be Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1151 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

AVIATION .

Extensive mid level cloud will continue to funnel across the region overnight, downstream of a low pressure system tracking across the Ohio valley. Some increase in low level moisture will occur through the morning period, although greater near surface saturation now appears to remain south of the area. This process in combination with a light wind field may still support some degree of fog formation over the southeast Michigan airspace. Greater potential for MVFR to IFR restrictions will exist across the Detroit corridor and possibly PTK, with lack of greater moisture depth limiting fog density northward into FNT/MBS. Upstream observational trends and recent model guidance continue to suggest fog development versus stratus. Lingering fog lifts during the late morning period, perhaps offering a window for VFR conditions into the afternoon. Moisture will then increase from the west late in the day within colder west- northwest winds. This will introduce the possibility for light snow shower development in MVFR/IFR conditions Saturday night.

For DTW . Potential for fog formation Saturday morning remains, but confidence in visibility dropping below 1 mile is diminishing.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft late tonight through Saturday afternoon. High Saturday night.

* Low confidence in visibilities 1/2SM or less and/or cigs of 200 ft less Saturday morning.

* High for ptype as snow Saturday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Sunday for LHZ421-441-442.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon EST Sunday for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . SF MARINE . SF AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi71 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 1007.5 hPa (-2.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi59 min N 2.9 G 5.1 34°F 1006.4 hPa31°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi16 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F93%1005.8 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi18 minN 08.00 miFair31°F27°F85%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5SE6S4S4S5S5S5SE6SE6SE9S8SE5S4SE3SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4Calm
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W11W9SW4W6SW4CalmSW3CalmS3CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.