Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:28PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:05 AM EDT (12:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:42PMMoonset 1:37PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0049.000000t0000z-190821t0145z/ 913 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4279 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4249 8284 4266 8284 4272 8269 4269 8260 4265 8259 4265 8255 4266 8255 4276 8251 4290 8251 4295 8249 4295 8243 time...mot...loc 0111z 222deg 32kt 4279 8263 4269 8267 4251 8275
LCZ423 Expires:201908210121;;958666 FZUS73 KDTX 210113 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 913 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 LCZ423-210121-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230958
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
558 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Aviation
High pressure building into the region will result inVFR conditions
through the TAF period. Could be some sub 5kft CIGS possible this
afternoon as diurnal CU field develops with the aid of northeasterly
flow off the lakes pushing low level moisture across the area.

Overall the sounding looks very dry above 7kft thus deep mixing
should erode the cloud field easily this evening. Winds will remain
north northeast with speeds to about 10 knots in best mixing this
afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for cigs AOB 5kft for a period of time Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 402 am edt Fri aug 23 2019
discussion...

continued influence of larger scale high pressure starts the day
across lower michigan but not without some interaction from the
great lakes that becomes more evident during the morning. Surface
and model analysis fields suggest a hybrid backdoor front aggregate
trough across superior and northern huron that marks a slight
reinforcement of cool air. Clouds along and north of the surface
trough extend well north into ontario and are more of the mid level
variety supported by the trough axis around 500 mb. This trough axis
pivots southeastward during the morning and pulls the superior huron
surface trough southward into southern lake huron and thumb region.

The upstream clouds then represent adequate moisture for scattered
showers due to instability over the warm lake water and from daytime
heating over the land by late morning through afternoon. Hi res
model solutions help identify the affected land area limited to the
thumb region before showers dissipate toward evening. This leaves
another nice day across the rest of SE michigan with some pockets of
mid clouds during the morning giving way to cumulus this afternoon
along with a component of clouds moving southward from the thumb.

Guidance temperature projections remain on the low side of normal
values that are in the upper 70s to around 80 for highs and in the
upper 50s to around 60 for lows today through this weekend.

Any remnant of the surface trough fills and releases inland in a
hybrid lake breeze fashion with the loss of daytime heating during
the evening. A reinforcement of slightly modified but still cooler
air then washes over the region during the night on light but steady
ne wind that is supplied by high pressure strengthening over
northern ontario. Both the surface high and ridge aloft drift across
the great lakes and combine for ideal late summer weather during the
weekend. Temperatures remain slightly below normal Saturday and then
moderate slightly by Sunday.

Prospects for rain increase Monday through the early week as the
upper level blocking pattern slowly matures. The current upper level
low and trough over the rockies make it into the plains by Monday
and latch on to the front stalled near the gulf coast. That leaves
little doubt about the moisture supply as the lead wave moves into
the great lakes and across SE michigan Monday afternoon and night.

Unsettled weather continues through Tuesday as a strong pacific cold
front surges across the region. Global model solutions project
development of a large and strong low pressure system over central
canada and the northern plains which likely has high predictability
overall but still with timing questions on the frontal passage
across SE michigan. Thunderstorm potential will be dependent on
refinement of this timing Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Marine...

canadian high pressure will become centered over the northern great
lakes today before departing to eastern canada over the weekend.

This system will influence the region through the end of the
weekend. A weakening gradient will attempt to keep winds down but
light to modest northerly winds will persist through this evening as
cold air advection produces unstable conditions. Winds and waves
should stay just below small craft criteria. This developing
instability will also support a chance for waterspouts today.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi66 min NNW 4.1 G 7 61°F 1020.7 hPa (+0.4)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi54 min NNW 2.9 G 8 63°F 1020.4 hPa55°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair52°F49°F92%1021 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi73 minNNW 610.00 miFair55°F50°F83%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE5N4N5N4NW6NE4NW5N3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW3CalmW5W5W6W8SW10
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W8W7SW4CalmW7NW7N4CalmNW3N3N4NE4NE4Calm
2 days agoNE3S5S3S3SE6S9SE8S8S7S4S5NW13
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CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W5W5W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.