Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Howell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 4:29 AM EST (09:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:04PMMoonset 8:56AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0057.000000t0000z-201115t1715z/ 1150 Am Est Sun Nov 15 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However a gale warning remains in effect. Boaters and mariners should continue to refer to the latest marine weather messages for the latest information. Lat...lon 4172 8347 4173 8345 4173 8350 4177 8350 4196 8328 4202 8323 4202 8324 4205 8319 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 1648z 233deg 42kt 4197 8303
LCZ423 Expires:202011151659;;883356 FZUS73 KDTX 151650 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1150 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-151659-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Howell, MI
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location: 42.68, -83.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 010801 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 301 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

Will maintain current Winter Weather Advisories as light snow continues to pivot back west/southwest into the area within area of isentropic upglide around the circulation of upper low pressure now lifting towards the eastern Great Lakes. The western extent of this snow will be limited, but also at its overnight/early morning peak heading into the morning commute per 00z model consensus and recent HiRes model runs.

Best accumulation potential this morning will extend along far southeast portions of the forecast area from the Down River area south/southeast along/west of the western Lake Erie shore. This activity will persist into the mid morning hours and then shift east into midday. Snow will also be persistent over parts of the Thumb with activity holding on into the afternoon before diminishing and shifting east as well. Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with the heaviest amounts most likely localized to parts of the Thumb where a few locally higher amounts will still be possible. A few areas immediately along Detroit River/western Lake Erie may also approach 2 inches of additional accumulations by mid morning.

After struggling into the lower to mid 30s today, the remainder of the week will feature seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 40s as this system pulls away to the northeast and the next batch of shortwave energy carves out an upper low over the southern plains. This upper low will become cutoff from the northern stream and gradually shear out and remain south of the area as a building high pressure expands from the western CONUS through the Rockies into the plains.

By this weekend, the northwest upper flow pattern around this ridge will sharpen and feature several shortwave disturbance which may bring a small chance of light precipitation to the region at times. Temperatures will also settle back into the 30s as several shots of colder Canadian air sweep through the area in the wake of these disturbances.

MARINE.

Active stretch of weather across the lakes as a strong low pressure system stalls over the eastern lakes today. This low is centered over Lake Ontario and will wobble around over the eastern Lakes through the day before beginning to lift northeastward tonight into Wednesday. Northerly gales are occuring and will persist across most of Lake Huron through tonight into Wednesday as cold unstable air and a tight pressure gradient remain over the region. Waves at or above 10 feet will continue to exist across the southern half of Lake Huron into this evening before winds start to gradually weaken and back to more northwesterly which will allow wave heights to subside while forcing the highest waves toward the Canadian coast.

Gale warnings remain in effect for most of the Lake Huron basin with small craft advisories in effect for part of Saginaw Bay, Lake St Clair and Lake Erie into tonight. These may need to be extended into Wednesday before winds relax enough to cancel them. The low will be slow to drift away from Ontario/Quebec Wednesday which will keep unstable conditions and around through mid week. Winds will remain elevated though likely below Gale force while backing to more northwesterly.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1152 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

AVIATION .

Persistent area of mainly light intensity snowfall will remain anchored across southeast Michigan through Tuesday morning. Low MVFR to IFR restrictions will remain firmly entrenched at DTW/YIP/PTK - lowest restrictions within a modest increase in snowfall intensity expected between 08z and 14z. The back edge of this snow will ten to align near FNT, offering at least intermittent bouts of light to snow and accompanying reduction of visibility. mbS remains outside of any meaningful snowfall and carries simply MVFR stratus this period. Prevailing north-northwest remaining gusty during this time, a slight lull in overall magnitude overnight before strengthening again Tuesday. This moisture will gradually vacate the region toward midday, with conditions easing back into VFR thereafter.

For DTW . Long duration of mainly light accumulating snow remains over the terminal through Tuesday morning. Some increase in intensity with a greater drop in visibility possible between 08z and 14z. West-northwest winds will prevail through the period, with gusts up to 25 knots at times.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in precip being all snow through Tuesday.

* High in ceilings remaining below 5000 feet through Tuesday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ049- 054-055-062-063.

Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ063.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MIZ069-070-075-076- 082-083.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for MIZ048- 054.

Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ049-055.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ361>363-421-441-442- 462-463.

Gale Warning until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ443-464.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.



DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG AVIATION . MR

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 57 mi30 min WNW 8 G 18 27°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 72 mi60 min WNW 8.9 G 14 28°F 1006.9 hPa24°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI5 mi35 minNNW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast27°F22°F82%1007.4 hPa
Flint, Bishop International Airport, MI23 mi37 minNNW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast29°F19°F66%1008.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOZW

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW5S4S6SW7S8S6SW8S7SW12
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2 days agoSW4SW4SW3SW3SW5SW7W11SW10SW7W9SW6SW6SW6S5S6S7SW8SW8SW7SW8SW8SW5S5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.