Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Erie Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday July 12, 2020 11:55 AM EDT (15:55 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 12:15PM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Expires:202007121515;;726735 Fzus51 Kbuf 121050 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 650 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez040-041-121515- Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 650 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
LEZ041


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Erie Beach, NY
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location: 42.69, -79.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 121418 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1018 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Less humid air will move into today. While the bulk of the day today will be dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible. Warm and more humid conditions are expected to return next week with chances for showers and thunderstorms most afternoons.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Weak surface ridge building today with less humid air moving in. For the most part the day looks dry, although mesoscale models suggesting some spotty afternoon convection along lake breeze boundaries. Along with the lower humidity, it will not be as warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Shortwave pivots through the area tonight bringing an additional small chance for showers.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Generally quiet weather is anticipated for most locations after Monday night. With that said, a potent mid-level shortwave trough and cold front will race southeast out of Ontario Canada on Monday. This feature as it enters the eastern Great Lakes will likely ignite some showers or storms during the late afternoon which will then linger into Monday night. The mid-level shortwave then exits slowly off to our east on Tuesday. However, a few showers and storms will still be possible in the NW'erly flow Tuesday afternoon which will focus across North Central NY. After that, upper level ridging will build into the eastern Great Lakes with dry weather ensuing Tuesday night through the end of this period.

In terms of temperatures, a gradually warming trend will occur each day with low/mid 70s expected on Monday and then by Wednesday low/mid 80s can be anticipated.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The next upstream shortwave begins to flatten the ridge over the region Thursday which this should be our best chance for any showers or storms. After that, zonal flow becomes establish across the Great Lakes region with an elongated area of high pressure anchored across the lower half of the Lower 48 through Saturday. Heat and humidity will also gradually increase through the end of the week into the weekend. The next sign of any rainfall will likely not come until sometime over the weekend as the next shortwave approaches from the west and with its cool front. Otherwise, high temperatures will once again climb well above normal during this time frame.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Mainly VFR weather today with just a spotty coverage of afternoon showers/storms along lake breeze boundaries, with the best chance along the boundary which sets up south of Lake Ontario from KIAG to KROC.

Outlook .

Tonight . VFR with widely scattered showers. Patchy valley fog late. Monday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. A weakening pressure gradient this afternoon and tonight will allow winds and waves to subside. High pressure will then provide gentle to occasional moderate breezes Monday and Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/TMA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR/EAJ AVIATION . Apffel/RSH/TMA MARINE . Apffel/RSH/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45142 - Port Colborne 4 mi55 min WSW 12 G 12 71°F 73°F1 ft1007.4 hPa (+0.1)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi55 min 72°F 1007.9 hPa (+0.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 14 mi55 min WSW 7 G 11 73°F 1007.9 hPa (+0.0)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 24 mi55 min SW 11 G 14 72°F 80°F1008.2 hPa (+0.3)50°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 30 mi55 min 75°F 1007.5 hPa (+0.0)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 41 mi115 min W 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 69°F1 ft1006.5 hPa (-0.1)
NREP1 41 mi85 min NW 5.1 G 6 86°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY14 mi62 minWSW 910.00 miFair76°F61°F60%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6NW9NW13
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W7W7W7W5SW6W6W6SW4SW6SW5SW4SW4SW7SW8W9
1 day agoSW7S7N7N8N10N8N7W10SW6SW15
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S6NE5CalmE4CalmSW5S3SW3S7S5S4SE7CalmE7
2 days agoNW8NW6NW6NW6NW6N5N6NE4NE4E3W5W8NE4S11SE6E3CalmS6S11S9S12
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.