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LEZ041 Expires:202405012115;;432983 Fzus51 Kbuf 011313 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 913 am edt Wed may 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-012115- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 913 am edt Wed may 1 2024
Rest of today - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 020529 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge into our region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will slide across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Mild temperatures and mainly dry weather for most of the region early tonight. Exception however is across the eastern Lake Ontario region where a stray showers and some rumbles of thunder may push east into the Adirondacks.

A shortwave will track across southern Quebec tonight, with a weak surface low also passing to our north, although its attendant weak surface cold front will cross the region overnight. For most areas this system will not have enough moisture or lift to produce any precipitation, with the best chances lying north of Lake Ontario east into the Saint Lawrence Valley. However, there is the chance for a few scattered light showers to graze areas from the southern Lake Ontario shoreline to the eastern Lake Ontario region along the southern flank of the better moisture and lift ahead of the boundary as it crosses the region. An isolated rumble of thunder or two also cannot be ruled out toward the North Country and Saint Lawrence Valley. Elsewhere, the passage of the weak cold front will only result in increasing cloud cover and should remain dry.

Ridging will build in across western and central NY on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a weak shortwave will dive southeast across northeastern NY and New England, but should remain far enough to our northeast to keep the North Country dry. Somewhat cooler air will filter in behind the front which will knock our temperatures down a bit with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with upper 50s to low 60s east of Lake Ontario. Still a bit above average for early May.

Surface high pressure slides east of the area while upper level ridge crests overhead Thursday night. These features will keep our weather dry with overnight lows ranging through the 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes.

Deepening moisture and the slow approach of the cold front will bring increasing chances for showers starting late Friday across far western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada, feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances until Friday night.

Fairly good model consensus brings a trough and weak frontal boundary slowly across the area Saturday into Saturday night.
This is likely to produce showers as it moves through, but there will be rain-free time between the showers also. Ample elevated instability to produce some widely scattered thunderstorms as well. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a half inch, although locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. The clouds and showers will lead to cooler weather on Saturday, with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers continue to start the long term period as a trough and frontal boundaries associated with a sfc low well to the north track across the area. Showers will taper off late Sunday afternoon from west to east with just a few lingering light showers and/or sprinkles for the eastern half of the area during the evening on Sunday.

Drier period expected later Sunday night into the first half of Tuesday as an area of high pressure and ridge builds into the region.

An occluding low over the north central portion of the CONUS will stall as its front pushes east toward the region. This will start to increase shower potential for western and north central NY during the mid day on Tuesday. Model guidance brings another area of low pressure north along the frontal boundary, further increasing the potential for showers and steadier rain across the area. Showers will then continue through the remainder of the period into at least the later portion of Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of the week, with Sunday being the cooler day of the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Lingering low stratus and fog has retracted over the northern half of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through Thursday.

A weak cold front will cross the area overnight, possibly producing a few scattered light showers from the southern Lake Ontario shoreline to the eastern Lake Ontario region (KART) along the southern flank of the better moisture and lift just ahead of the boundary as it crosses the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through early Thursday morning with mainly SCT-BKN mid level decks in the 7-10kft range through the night.

Mainly VFR conditions expected Thursday as high pressure builds in across the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The exception will be east of Lake Ontario as winds veer west behind the boundary possibly advecting lingering low stratus over Lake Ontario back in across this area for Thursday morning. This may produce VFR and a few MVFR CIGS across the North Country (KART) for the morning hours, possibly lingering through midday or so. Daytime heating should scatter out any leftover low CIGS Thursday afternoon with all areas VFR.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers, otherwise mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR.

MARINE
Weak pressure gradients are expected throughout the remainder of the week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. Areas of fog on Lake Ontario lasting into tonight. While the week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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