Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM   Moonset 11:54 AM

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FXUS63 KLBF 011759 AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 1259 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- There is potential for strong to severe storms this evening into tonight mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett southward with a primary threat of large hail.

- Storms from Curtis through Arnold to Spencer eastward may produce excessive rainfall and localized flooding .

- There is potential for another round of strong to severe storms Friday evening into Friday night mainly south of Highway 2.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A band of showers stretching across southwestern and central Nebraska will continue to push northward driven by isentropic lift and large scale ascent. As we get deeper into this afternoon, deeper moisture will start surging northward into the region with precipitable water values rising into the 90th percentile by early tonight as low pressure moves out of Colorado with robust mid level FGEN and deformation in the northwest quadrant.
This will allow showers to continue to bloom from late this afternoon into this evening and eventually developing into thunderstorms. While surface based instability is lacking, steep lapse rates aloft will make for some strong to severe storms by early tonight across portions of central and western Nebraska mainly from Ogallala through Bartlett and southward. The elevated nature of the storms will make a good amount of the low level shear unavailable to updrafts but expect some of the deeper cores will be hail producers with potential for large hail especially heading further to the south of I-80. Given the lack of steep low level lapser rates and lackluster DCAPEs, strong gusty winds appear to be a lesser secondary threat but conditions will have to be monitored closely as a more dynamic environment capable of supporting better potential for severe storms will reside not very far off to our south and east. And given moist antecedent conditions and the increasing precipitable water values supporting a better than 50% chance for localized rainfall amounts around one inch from Curtis through Arnold to Spencer and eastward, will be keeping a close eye on potential for localized flooding tonight before the precipitation pushes off to our east before daybreak.

With the upper trof still upstream, there may be enough lingering moisture and instability to keep some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder around north of Hwy 2 through early Thursday. Then as the boundary layer dries and becomes deeply mixed expect winds to become blustery Thursday afternoon with probabilistic guidance showing mean values for max gusts 30 to 35mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

In this persistent progressive flow regime, our next chance for precipitation will be Friday afternoon into Friday night with passage of a strong cold front moving down form the northwest. A ribbon of moisture will surge up along the front and fuel development of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as it passes. The boundary layer will be well mixed with steep low level lapse rates ahead of the front, along with modestly steep mid/upper level lapse rates aloft. Wile instability will be limited, robust forcing combined with steep lapse rates will give storms potential to produce large hail and strong gusty winds mainly south of Hwy 2. The front should be pushing off to our east later Friday night and taking the showers/storms with it.

Thereafter our progressive pattern aloft will continue with some brief ridging and improving conditions for Saturday into Sunday, followed by a strong upper low moving from the west coast, through the Rockies, and into the Plains by the first part of next week. This upper low is very dynamic and may bring a threat for severe thunderstorms to Nebraska by Monday. However timing, location, and degree of threat is uncertain this far out so expect the forecast to become better defined over the next several days.

Temperatures will be seasonable with a trend to above normal by Sunday and into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon across western and north central Nebraska, becoming MVFR this evening across southwest and central Nebraska, then IFR overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the early morning hours. With the showers and thunderstorms, there could be the potential for erratic winds in vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds will become gusty out of the southeast this afternoon, and weaken again this evening, outside of thunderstorms. A weak cold front will move through after 12Z Thursday morning with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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