Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Pleasant, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:54PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:57 AM CST (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Fri Jan 24 2020
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..East wind 10 to 15 knots backing northeast late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog through the day. Areas of drizzle late in the morning and early afternoon. Rain likely early in the afternoon, then rain late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing west early in the morning. Areas of dense fog through the night. Rain through around midnight. Snow through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of rain and snow through around midnight, then chance of flurries after midnight. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:202001242300;;449998 FZUS53 KMKX 241705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-242300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Pleasant, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 241011 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 411 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

SHORT TERM.

Today through Saturday . Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Low pressure slowly move toward the area today, reaching far southern Lake Michigan by this evening. The low will then stall over the lake tonight . slowly pulling away eastward on Saturday.

Light precipitation mainly in the form of snow will continue early this morning, with some mix with rain toward the lake. It looks like a dry slot will slide through for the late morning and afternoon hours. Looks like a decent chance for drizzle during this period with a loss of saturation aloft. May see some light snow linger at times as well. Temps at the surface should be just above freezing, so no real concern for freezing drizzle.

The next shot for accumulating snowfall will then arrive early this evening as the deepening low positions itself just to the southeast of the forecast area. Models are showing a pretty decent round of lift . with the dendrite growth zone falling largely within the strongest lift. Not buying the mild GFS temps in the lowest 2 kft. Think precip rates should be enough to cool things in the low levels for all snow by the time the main area of precip moves in this evening. This is shown well by the NAM, RAP, and several mesoscale models. Could see a rain/snow mix hang on longer into the evening toward Lake Michigan due to onshore winds bringing in slightly milder temps.

Opted to go with a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 pm this evening to 9 am Sat morning for Jefferson, Waukesha, Rock, Walworth, Racine, and Kenosha counties. This area has the best chance to see higher snowfall rates and the highest totals of 3 to 5 inches.

Should see a little precip linger on saturday . mainly snow . though a little rain or drizzle may mix in by afternoon.

LONG TERM.

Saturday night through Monday night . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The upper level system will be pushing east heading into Sunday with snow ending from west to east by Sunday morning. One uncertainty going through the day Sunday is that the ECMWF has a vort max dropping south on the backside of the departing system. But the NAM/GFS and to some extent the GEM weaken this feature and are a stronger with a clipper digging through the central US. The end result of the ECMWF would be another round of light snow Sunday afternoon and the other models would be just a few flurries. At this point with the differences between these models don't want to quite buy into the ECMWF solution which would bring another quarter to half an inch on Sunday. So, have added flurries to the forecast until some better agreement can be made. Subtle CAA behind this system will bring overnight lows Sunday into Monday down into the low to mid 20s. Highs recover into the low to mid 30s by Monday afternoon as high pressure begins to build in to our west.

Tuesday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The pattern through the week will remain active with weak waves moving through the generally west to east upper level flow. We never really lose our low/mid level moisture so additional bouts of light snow/flurries are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Going beyond this period agreement really begins to break down with varying ideas on how to handle a series of troughs moving through Pacific NW and into the Rockies. Guidance is clear on the southern portion digging into the desert SW and becoming cutoff but how they handle the second northern wave is quite different. For now will keep lower PoPs in the forecast. In terms of temps winds stay mainly out of the west to southwest which will keep values above normal with highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS).

Snow will continue this morning, with a break likely mid/late morning into the afternoon as drier air aloft moves through. May see mainly drizzle during this period, with surface temps likely just above freezing. Widespread snow will return for this evening into Saturday morning. Additional accumulations for this later period will range from 2 to 5 inches, the highest amounts likely southeast/south-central portions of the forecast area where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Could see a rain/snow mix linger longer into the evening toward Lake Michigan. The snow will once again be average to wet . with slow to liquid ratios in the 8-10 to 1 range.

Low ceilings will persist into Saturday. Visibilities will be in the 1 to 3 mile range into this morning, improving for a time during the day today. Widespread visibilities of 1 to 2 miles are expected tonight into early Saturday, likely dropping under a mile at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few obs dip to 1/4 to 1/2 mile.

MARINE.

Low pressure over Missouri will deepen as it moves to far southern Lake Michigan tonight. Brisk easterly winds are expected today as the low approaches the area. Kept the Small Craft Advisory timing/placement as is for waves of 3 to 5 feet today. Brisk east to northeast winds will then prevail over the northern half of the lake tonight with lighter and more variable winds south as the low moves into the area. Winds will become north to northwest for this weekend as the low slowly pulls away, generally staying below 25 knots through this period.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for WIZ064-065-069>072.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ644>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . DDV Saturday through Thursday . Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi57 min ESE 7 G 7 36°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 19 mi47 min E 4.1 G 5.1 36°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 45 mi77 min E 8 G 9.9 38°F 1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI3 mi64 minESE 70.25 miFog37°F36°F96%1012.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi64 minESE 60.75 miFog/Mist38°F36°F93%1012.1 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi65 minESE 70.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist37°F35°F93%1012.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL21 mi62 minESE 40.25 miFog36°F34°F93%1012 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi62 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist36°F35°F99%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S7S7S7S6S6SE5SE5SE6SE5E5E5SE7E5E6NE8E7E8E7E7E7SE7E7
1 day agoSW9SW12
G19
S7S7S8S6S7S8S9S9S10S8S8S5S7S5S5S7S11S7S8S10S8S5
2 days agoSW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.