Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Pleasant, WI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:37PM Monday August 26, 2019 2:58 AM CDT (07:58 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 5:04PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Scattered showers. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Monday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots veering southwest after midnight, then easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201908260900;;220794 FZUS53 KMKX 260606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-260900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Pleasant, WI
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location: 42.73, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 260442
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1142 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Update Showers continue to increase ahead of approaching short
wave trof. Looking good for more widespread showers late tonight
into Monday morning. No significant changes at this time.

Marine No changes to ongoing forecast.

Prev discussion (issued 937 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019)
update... Scattered light showers continue to regenerate across
parts of southern wi into northern il as column moisture
increases ahead of slowly approaching stronger short wave in
northern missouri. Bumped up pops to categorical levels for late
tonight into Monday as synoptic forcing tied to upper jet along
with lowering condensation pressure deficits on 305-310 theta
surface spread into the area.

Marine... East to southeast winds remain surprisingly gusty across
far northern lake michigan as several vessels continue to report
gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Expect these higher gusts to continue over
the far north. Gustiness will also increase across southern lake
michigan as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of low pressure
over mo moving slowly northeast. Potential for gusts to 30 knots
late tonight and Monday ahead of this approaching low pressure
system and approaching cold front, which passes through Monday
night. Gusty winds will continue on Tuesday with the strongest
winds possibly reaching gale force levels on Wednesday.

Beaches... Dangerous swimming conditions are still expected to
develop later tonight at lake michigan beaches along racine and
kenosha counties. Wave heights are expected to build to 3 to 5
feet as southeast winds increase. The kenosha lakeshore
observation has been reporting sustained winds of 15 to 20 kts
most of the evening. The dangerous swimming conditions and a
resultant "high swim risk" expands northward to include the
remainder of the beaches along lake michigan into milwaukee,
ozaukee and sheboygan counties Monday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 628 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019)
update... Initial weak mid-level wave along with some mid-level
moisture advection producing scattered light showers over south
central wi into northern il. Showers should become more isolated
this evening, but upstream stronger mid-level wave over northern
mo is still expected to take a northeast track overnight into
Monday morning as deeper column moisture moves into the area.

This will likely bring a period of more widespread showers to the
area, especially southeast areas. Precipitable water roughly
doubles overnight into Monday morning to around 1.5". Instability
remains negligible through Monday morning.

Aviation(00z tafs)... Isolated to scattered light showers expected
this evening, will become more widespread later tonight into
Monday morning across much of the area. ExpectVFR ceilings to
lower to MVFR and possibly ifr late tonight and Monday morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 345 pm cdt Sun aug 25 2019)
short term...

tonight through Monday night... Forecast confidence is medium to
high...

the persistent high pressure that was over the area this weekend
has shifted off to the east. To our west a few shortwaves exist
and will play a role in rain chances tonight through Monday night.

Winds at the surface have shifted to the SE while winds aloft have
backed to the south and southwest. This has allowed moisture
mainly above 700mb to start to stream back into the area. The
first shortwave is lifting into mn and subtle lift associated with
this feature has resulted in some light returns. However, drier
air still lingering near the surface is preventing some of this
rain from reaching the ground. Kept in a slight chance as this
narrow axis of rain shifts east.

As we head into the overnight hours, a system moves out of ks ne
towards central il. Moisture transport with this feature will be
better and rain chances increase through the night as the
shortwave nears the area. Forecast soundings would suggest an
almost completely moist adiabatic profile overnight so have kept
thunder out of the forecast. This is a shift from previous
guidance, that were advertising this system would stay to our
south and east keeping the area mostly dry tonight. But all the
new guidance made a shift westward with the track of the rainfall
and based on the current movement of activity to our SW this shift
seems reasonable. So, have modified pops and QPF for tonight to
reflect this change.

Latest trends in model guidance would suggest a less favorable
setup for strong to severe storms on Monday. The shift in the
overnight into Monday morning rainfall would likely mean that we
won't be able to heat up as much as previous guidance was
suggesting. The timing of the cold front has also been delayed
with the latest runs putting it into the area overnight Monday
into Tuesday. As the main upper level system moves into wi it
pivots N NE towards northern wi Monday night. This would take the
stronger forcing away from the area and we may not have as much of
a focus for showers and storms along the front. There is also a
signal in guidance for some type of splitting of precip over
southern wi. This could be the result of the better forcing going
north, and any storms that do develop along the front are going to
shift E SE towards the better instability, which would be away
from the area. Lots of mesoscale details to be worked out and
won't be able to really pinpoint those until the showers tonight
move through the area. So, for now have kept higher chances of
showers with only slight chances for storms for Monday into Monday
night.

Long term...

Tuesday through Wednesday night... Confidence is medium.

Dry but breezy conditions are expected as a low pressure system
exits the area to the northeast. Another upper level disturbance
will swing a trough axis through Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. This could spark off an isolated shower, but with a lot
of dry air in place it is not likely. The main story will be
strong westerly winds winds that move in for Wednesday behind the
mid level trough axis. 850 mb winds will be around 30 to 40
knots. At this point believe we will see some 30 knot gusts mix
down to the surface Wednesday afternoon over land and over lake
michigan. Winds will then decrease overnight as we head into
Thursday.

Thursday through Sunday... Confidence is medium.

Upper levels seem a bit active with multiple shortwave troughs
moving through. The main timeframes look to be Thursday evening
into Friday and again on Sunday. The question will be is there
enough moisture in the atmosphere to develop showers? At this
point it looks like the best moisture remains to our south.

Therefore have a dry forecast in place through the weekend. If
there is a trend for more moisture to be available later on this
week, will probably have to add in rain chances.

For temperatures we will see highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s
Wednesday through Sunday.

Aviation(21z tafs)...

increasing moisture tonight will result in ceilings gradually
lowering towards MVFR. A stray light shower is possible this
afternoon and evening but rain chances start to increase towards
Monday morning. Winds stay out of the SE through the period and
it's possible that a few gusts near the lake could be upwards 20
to 25 knots Monday afternoon. If showers become more widespread
Monday morning, CIGS could end up borderline ifr MVFR with
visibilities of 2 to 3 miles.

Marine...

a stronger system approaching the area from the west will result
in increasing winds and waves tonight into Monday. The E SE winds
we've had the past few days have kept waves between 2 to 3 feet.

Winds ramp up to 20 to 25 knots by Monday morning and this will
result in waves building towards 3 to 5 feet with some 6 foot
waves possible. A small craft advisory is in effect for Monday.

A cold front moves through the area Monday night shifting winds to
the west, which will allow waves to come down. Another system will
move across the lake on Wednesday bringing winds to near gales.

Beaches...

gusty southeasterly winds expected tonight through Monday night
will result in building waves through the period. Waves of 2 to 3
feet this evening will build to 3 to 5 feet with occasional waves
as high as 6 feet Monday afternoon. A high swim risk is in effect
for all lake michigan beaches tonight through Monday night.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Beach hazards statement from 7 am cdt Monday through late Monday
night for wiz052-060-066.

Beach hazards statement through late Monday night for wiz071-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am cdt Tuesday for lmz646.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 1 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz644-645.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Monday to 7 am cdt Tuesday for
lmz643.

Update... mbk
tonight Monday and aviation marine... mbk
Monday night through Sunday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 10 mi58 min SSE 18 G 21 71°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.7)
45187 17 mi38 min SE 14 G 18 74°F 72°F4 ft
45186 25 mi38 min ESE 14 G 18 70°F 72°F4 ft
45013 26 mi58 min SSE 14 G 18 70°F 69°F4 ft1014.9 hPa (-1.2)
45174 43 mi38 min ESE 14 G 18 72°F4 ft1011.5 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi38 min ESE 21 G 25 69°F 71°F1014.2 hPa60°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 45 mi78 min SSE 13 G 15 71°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI3 mi3.1 hrsSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F60°F66%1015.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI11 mi3.1 hrsSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F62°F71%1014.7 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI16 mi3.1 hrsSE 1010.00 miOvercast72°F61°F68%1014.9 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI24 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F60°F99%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRAC

Wind History from RAC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
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SE12E12E10E9E7E8E10SE9--SE9--SE11
G19
1 day agoE5E5CalmSE6SE6SE9SE11SE13E15E13E11
G17
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E10E10E9E7NE7NE6----E7SE9--
2 days ago--NE5NE8NE7E10--NE9E10E10E7E11
G18
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NE9NE12NE15NE12NE8NE7--------NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.