Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:38PM Saturday August 17, 2019 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:02PMMoonset 7:35AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 347 Am Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... At 346 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm west of wyandotte to 6 nm west of elizabeth park marina to 8 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor, moving east at 25 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, lake erie metropark harbor and wyandotte around 405 am edt. Elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 410 am edt. The ambassador bridge and grosse ile around 415 am edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4225 8318 4230 8314 4234 8299 4229 8310 4224 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4203 8315 4200 8327
LCZ423 Expires:201908170830;;763534 FZUS73 KDTX 170747 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 LCZ423-170830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 171436
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1036 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
- multiple chances for thunderstorms exist through Sunday mainly
along and south of i-96. Strong storms are possible, but not a
slam dunk.

- dangerous swimming conditions are possible Sunday.

- a quiet start to the workweek is expected with cooler
temperatures prevailing into the weekend.

Update
Issued at 1036 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
--thunderstorms south of i-96 this afternoon--
the forecast now features strong and possibly severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening around the i-94 corridor, primarily
affecting the kalamazoo, battle creek, and jackson areas. Some of
this activity could make a run north towards i-96 but any such
storms would not be as strong. Lightning, large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats.

Forecast reasoning: both recent hrrr runs and radar trends show
increasing chances for MCV induced thunderstorms spreading
northeast into our southeastern zones. Strongest MCV forcing and
thunderstorms are over eastern il and moving east, but we are
already seeing some discrete cells developing over NW indiana
along an east-west instability axis that may be getting a
frontogenetic boost from deformation aloft. SPC mesoanalysis
graphics shows a sharp e-w axis of impressive CAPE in the hail
growth zone (greater than 600 j kg) combined with sufficient deep
layer shear (0-6km bulk values of 30-40 kt) to support discrete
supercells. This east-west axis is currently positioned just
south of the forecast area, but trends show it drifting north this
afternoon. The main times of concern for thunderstorms would be
after 3 pm but lasting well into this evening.

Discussion (today through next Friday)
issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
the main forecast concern is the potential for several rounds of
thunderstorms over the next 24-48 hours favoring areas south of i-
96, though most activity may hinge on nebulous forcing provided by
mvcs traversing in zonal low- to mid-level flow. Hence, confidence
is overall lower than average.

The first MCV will originate from ongoing widespread (severe)
convection across kansas and western missouri this morning. The 00z
suite of cams suggest the MCV will ride along a northward-drifting
warm front currently located along i-80 with renewed convective
development into lower michigan during the afternoon hours (mainly
after 21z 4pm). While forecast instability looks meager due to weak
lapse rates, forecast shear profiles (enhanced by the MCV itself)
suggest modest storm organization would still be attainable. Anytime
an MCV tracks along a warm front, there's always concern for
localized severe weather and indeed the SPC day 1 marginal risk just
clips lower michigan, mainly along and south of i-94.

A stray shower or storm will remain possible along the warm front
tonight (much like what we're watching across the chicago area as of
this writing but not as strong), but most of the area should
remain dry. Patchy fog will be possible especially toward sunrise
Sunday with just enough low-level winds perhaps encouraging a low-
level stratus deck over widespread dense fog.

Expected widespread convection across parts of the plains this
afternoon and evening will likely spit out yet another MCV our way
(if not a convective complex) Sunday morning as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. The warm front should slowly lift
northward ahead of the MCV which may allow for the maintenance of
what's left of the convection as it passes through lower
michigan. At this point there's a signal the MCV may arrive a bit
too early to take advantage of the upper-level support which will
push through later in the day. Unfortunately this casts
uncertainty with potential renewed convective development during
the afternoon hours associated with the upper-level trough.

Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles would certainly support
strong to severe convection, though such a threat may end up south
and east of lower michigan where the influence of early-day
convection would be less. The SPC day 2 marginal risk is fair
given the aforementioned uncertainties.

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests continued zonal
flow into the early portion of next week with a frontal passage
sometime mid-week. Ensemble model guidance is honing in on yet
another period of below-normal temperatures into the weekend as
persistent troughing becomes established across the eastern united
states. Time will tell of such a regime occurs (but we won't
complain).

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 735 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
as expected, the TAF sites along the i-94 corridor (jxn btl azo)
have seen patchy fog take cig vis down to lifr at times. This
should only last another hour or so before the Sun starts to warm
temperatures for the day. Winds will be generally light from the
southwest throughout the TAF period. Mid-level clouds start to
increase this afternoon as showers and a few thunderstorms start
to bubble up across the area. Right now it looks like most of this
shower activity will be confined along and south of the i-96
corridor. Thus, we have only mentioned vicinity thunderstorms for
the jxn btl azo sites for this afternoon. Once diurnal
shower storm activity diminishes this evening, the threat for fog
will creep back into the area for Sunday morning. There is still
quite a bit of uncertainty over how widespread the fog will
become early Sunday morning. The inversion should be
strengthening, but at the same time residual cloud cover might
inhibit temperatures from cooling down as much. Thus, for now have
only mentioned vicinity fog in the tafs, but this will need to be
revisited as guidance comes into better agreement today.

Marine
Issued at 340 am edt Sat aug 17 2019
we are concerned about wind and waves Sunday. South southwest
winds and waves will increase during the afternoon hours raising
the concern of longshore currents and waves topping piers given
the high water levels. Waves look to top off somewhere in the 3-5
ft range, which is right in the dangerous zone where swimmers may
not realize how big the waves really area. As such, beach hazard
statements may be needed for Sunday. Otherwise, we'll let the day
shift take one more look before issuing any products, but beach
hazards statements are possible. Calmer conditions are expected
to start the workweek.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Amd
marine... Tjt borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi58 min WSW 14 G 16 72°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi58 min W 8 G 14 79°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.0)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 87 mi58 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 80°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.5)67°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI11 mi2.1 hrsW 910.00 miFair77°F60°F56%1013.7 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi82 minW 510.00 miFair78°F63°F60%1014.6 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi79 minW 9 G 1410.00 miFair78°F61°F57%1013.9 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi82 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F62°F60%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

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Last 24hr4S74--S9SW9S11S8--S5S6------SW5SW6--W5W4W6--W8W9W11
1 day agoN6N8N7N8N9------N3NW4CalmCalmCalmNW4------NE5NE4------CalmE4
2 days agoE5SE7NE7NE11NE10NE11NE14NE10E7NE5E5E6E5E5E4NE4N5NE6N5N8N6NE9NE11NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.