Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Haslett, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:41PM Friday August 14, 2020 12:45 PM EDT (16:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 4:32PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0034.000000t0000z-200811t0230z/ 1016 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4225 8318 4233 8312 4237 8293 4234 8296 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0214z 266deg 32kt 4219 8322 4196 8316 4169 8315
LCZ423 Expires:202008110226;;259473 FZUS73 KDTX 110216 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020 LCZ423-LEZ444-110226-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haslett, MI
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location: 42.74, -84.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 141154 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 754 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 602 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

- Hot with a chance of an afternoon showers/storms in the south and east

- Best chance for storms Saturday evening

- Cooler and drier trends next week

DISCUSSION. (This afternoon through next Thursday) Issued at 602 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

-- Hot with a chance of an afternoon showers/storms in the south and east --

The upper ridge that has dominated the weather pattern this week will begin to break down this afternoon. This weakening ridge will be sandwiched between two upper level low pressure systems. One, is a weak wave will be moving through the Ohio valley and a stronger, deeper system that is making its way through the upper Midwest today.

As the weak system in Ohio moves northeastward, it will bring moist easterly flow across the Lower peninsula. This will increase the unstable CAPE to southern Michigan. Couple this CAPE with the hot daytime temperatures that are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s and you get a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The latest CAMS have storms sparking after 4 PM. However there remains several limiting factors. First, is the remaining stability of the region. That will stifle any convection from forming. The next is the lack of shear and upper level forcing. Any convection that does form, will be late in the afternoon, and will be in the east, near Jackson to Lansing, and south, perhaps on a very weak boundary south of Kalamazoo.

-- Best chance for storms Saturday evening --

The before-mentioned system that is currently moving through the upper midwest, will trek through Michigan, on Saturday. As the system moves into the Great Lakes region, it will weaken. The upper level pattern shows divergent flow early to mid Saturday. However between 21Z to 06Z a mid level trough will level trough, will move through the northern half of the Lower Peninsula. The best precipitation chances will be north of Grand Rapids, however the positively tilted trough will allow the front to linger Saturday evening across southwest Michigan. So expect a lack of convection through the first half of Saturday but scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday evening into the overnight hours early Sunday.

- Cooler and drier trends next week --

The front could linger into early Sunday. However it will pass by mid Sunday. Behind this front we will become under the influence of general trough aloft for much of next week. This results in much cooler temperatures, and a mainly dry forecast.

The latest model trends keep the upper jet mainly north and northeast of the area, on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet. A few isolated showers can not be ruled out, especially on Monday with a short wave not far away. However, ridging in the lower levels being produced by the upper ridge to our west should keep most of the area dry most of the time. In addition, moisture will be quite limited once it gets swept out on Sunday. The CPC also reinforces this as the 6 to 10 outlook has SW Michigan a slightly below normal temperatures probability.

Temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 70s Monday into Tuesday and slowly rebound to the lower 80s by Thursday.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 752 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Overall VFR conditions will dominate the patter today. Widely scattered showers and a few tstms are expected to develop after 18Z Friday around JXN, spreading west and north from there through early evening before dissipating. If one of these cells passes over a terminal, some brief reductions in vsbys are possible. Sfc winds mainly easterly at 5-10 kts.

The risk for thunder is highest at JXN and LAN Friday so included VCTS at these sites and VCSH at the other terminals (except at MKG which should stay dry). That said, instability may be sufficient for a tstm west of JXN/LAN too Friday afternoon so it's something to watch.

VFR should continue overnight, though any regions that receive rain could see MVFR cigs and vsbys overnight into early Saturday morning.

MARINE. Issued at 157 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Winds will remain fairly light through the period. As such, headlines shouldn't be needed until the late Sunday- Monday time frame. Offshore winds will dominate the next couple of days, with winds becoming onshore for the late afternoon and evening hours due to the development of the lake breeze.

Winds will start to come up Saturday night ahead of the incoming cold front but the latest CAMS keep them below criteria. Stronger winds arrive behind the front and continue through Monday. Headlines will likely be needed with the lake waters near their annual peak warmth, and with a fairly cool air mass approaching.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . Ceru DISCUSSION . Ceru AVIATION . Ceru MARINE . Ceru


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 82 mi105 min ENE 9.9 G 12 75°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 83 mi45 min E 12 G 13 76°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Capital Region International Airport, MI11 mi52 minNE 710.00 miFair81°F64°F57%1017.3 hPa
Mason, Mason Jewett Field Airport, MI12 mi50 minNNE 6 G 1410.00 miFair82°F63°F54%1017.6 hPa
Owosso, Owosso Community Airport, MI22 mi50 minNNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F65°F63%1017.6 hPa
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI24 mi50 minE 810.00 miFair82°F63°F53%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLAN

Wind History from LAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE6NE7NE10NE7E8NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmNE4NE7NE8NE7
1 day agoN4CalmSE85N3CalmN4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN34
2 days agoN7NW8N8N5N7N7N5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.