Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:22 AM   Moonset 11:48 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 011940 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 340 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night

- Warm with Periods of showers and storms ahead



DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

- Risk for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night

A stronger mid level vort max pivots northeastward from SD through MN during this timeframe. An associated low level jet lifts up through WI an into western Lower MI. Elevated instability advects in, especially Thursday night with 925 mb/850 mb LI's lowering down to -2 deg C. Thus an increasing risk for thunderstorms will exist during this period. With the low level jet around, any stronger storm may result in stronger gusts. Deep layer shear is shown to be quite strong well west of the CWA then, but if a complex and track in from the west, we could see an organized gust front, mainly Thursday night. We will expand the likely POPs to include much of the CWA for Thursday night.

- Warm with Periods of showers and storms ahead

A slow moving upper level low moving through the upper Midwest and along the Canadian border will dominate the weather pattern through the weekend into next week. No major changes to forecast ahead. Mid to long range models continue to show a shortwave swinging around that large upper level low that will entrench itself over the Upper Midwest Friday.

That shortwave will strengthen a frontal system that will bring a warm and cold front through the region Friday. There is strong moisture through the mid levels that correspond with a mid level shortwave, a decent mid level gradient and dry air behind the front. This should bring for substantial showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. PWATs still look to be around 1.25 and dewpoints in the 60s. While upper level dynamics look to be beneficial, looking at soundings they are fairly moist so periods of showers look to be the trend. The cold front treks eastward Friday afternoon with showers and storms.

As the upper level low moves northeastwards a tertiary trough swings through late Saturday which could bring some light scattered showers into Sunday m morning.

The next best chance for showers and storms will be early next week as another large upper level low moves similarly as Friday's system and drags another trough with warm moist air into the Great Lakes.

Max Temperatures through this timeframe will be in the 70s with highest temperatures nearing 80 next week. Cooler air will reside along the lakeshore.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

- Breezy Winds continue

Gusty winds continue through the rest of the day as a low level jet has mixed to the surface. Winds have shifted to the west and will remain in the 30 to 35KT gust range. Winds will weaken near and shortly after sunset, around 01 to 02Z.
Winds will be light overnight and most of the day tomorrow with clouds overspreading the region tomorrow. Expect VFR through the period with a chance for showers and storms, especially the western TAF sites tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

The winds and waves have largely fallen to under small craft advisory so we cancelled the headline early. The winds will increase again Thursday night as another low level jet moves in.
Mixing heights and the winds at those levels suggest we will fall just short of small craft conditions.



GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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