Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Haverhill, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday July 4, 2020 7:58 PM EDT (23:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:18PMMoonset 4:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night through Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night through Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres to build over the waters through Sunday. A cold front will push across the waters by Monday morning. High pressure returns for Monday afternoon into Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Haverhill, MA
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location: 42.76, -71.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 042318 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 718 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low clouds and fog build back westward tonight. Warm and humid conditions ahead of a cold front may produce scattered thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon north of the Massachusetts Turnpike. Weak high pressure follows Monday and moves off the coast Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions move in for the middle and end of next week with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Heat Advisories may be needed. Low pressure passing to our south Saturday could bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region. With abundant moisture in place late in the week, any storms could produce locally torrential rainfall.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. 715 PM update .

As of 715 PM, one lone shower was moving southward through south central Worcester County. Otherwise skies ranged from clear to partly cloudy. Low cloudiness had exited Cape Ann but still remained over the outer elbow of Cape Cod and on Nantucket. Satellite pictures indicate that Nantucket will be clearing out within the hour, but that will only be short-lived.

Previous discussion .

Tonight clear skies prevail over most of the region to begin. Hi- res guidance indicates that the stubborn area of low stratus and fog over the Cape and islands will once again fill back in and expand westward. As mentioned previously, developing west winds may help keep this coastal stratus/mist/fog contained to southeastern MA/RI. However, hi-res guidance indicates increasing low level moisture/cloudcover across portions of western MA/CT along with a few scattered showers associated with a weak convergence boundary dropping south after midnight into mid morning Sunday. Model soundings show some elevated instability as well, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder. On the whole, though, expecting a dry night . the main question being extent of cloudcover out west and the effect on how cold it gets.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. ** Scattered Strong to Severe Storms Possible mid Afternoon/Evening**

We continue to be concerned with the steady if not a bit increasing potential for a few strong to severe storms to impact the region Sunday afternoon and evening. At the moment the area with the greatest chance of strong to severe storms looks to be northeast MA. This is where we see collocation of the best instability, moisture, and shear. However, a more broad area of thunderstorm chances will be generally a line from Providence to Plymouth northward, and west to Worcester.

This convective setup comes courtesy of a mid level shortwave dropping through with a sfc cold front which will help to initiate storms. After the early morning's clouds and any light showers dissipate we'll begin to heat up quickly toward highs in the 80s to near 90 in the CT valley. There are several factors contributing to a chance for strong storms. Dewpoints in the warm sector will reach well into the upper 60s and even low 70s in northeast MA. Under NW flow ML lapse rates steepen substantially, to the 6.5-7 C/km range, while LL lapse rates remain very steep, ~8 C/km. CAPE values will reach 1500-2500. Bulk effective shear increses as well and at 30-35 kts will certainly be capable of sustaining some strong to severe storms. One thing that we've seen as a detriment to storms today has been very dry mid and upper levels. While that will be an issue tomorrow as well, especially for areas south and west of ORH- PVD, we do see increased moisture in the mid and upper levels over northeast MA tomorrow afternoon. This is also where effective shear it maximized, and thus why the greatest threat of severe storms lies here. 12Z HREF guidance indicates a swath of potential for 2-5 km updraft helicity <75 (a proxy for stronger thunderstorms) from eastern CT stretching northwest into northeast MA where values are maximized.

Timing-wise, the window for best thunderstorm chances would be generally 2 pm through 10 pm. Some of the CAMs are indicating two rounds of convection, first in the mid/late afternoon, then another round over northeast MA near/just after sunset.

The main threats from these storms continues to be damaging winds and hail. However, there is small chance for a tornado or two as well. Low level shear parameters are favorable (0-1 km shear 20-25 kts, 0-1 km SHR >150 m2s2). Also, it's been found that a favorable parameter space for quick spin up tornadoes in our area is to have >75 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE coupled with decent 0-1 km helicity. Both of these thresholds are likely to be met tomorrow. None of these parameters mean we'll see a tornado, but simply indicate that it is a possibility, if/when storms get going. Some flies in the ointment that may inhibit more widespread storms would be marginal mid/upper moisture and forcing being a bit weak. However, this may be able to be overcome by the ample instability and shear.

Overnight the cold front passes and the low moves offshore. Behind the front showers and thunderstorms will dissipate overnight. Behind the front a drier airmass moves in and PWATs drop <0.75", except toward SW CT where the moist airmass lingers.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Big Picture .

Upper level trough moves from the Gulf of Maine eastward past the Maritime provinces Monday. The upper flow then becomes zonal across the northern U.S. and New England with several shortwaves moving through this flow. Heights rise as upper level ridging moves in.

There is a split in the flow, with consensus of models and ensembles creating an upper level low from the Mid-Atlantic to the southeastern coast. The low pressure surface reflection varies from inland over the eastern Carolinas on the GFS to just off the coast over the warm waters on the ECMWF and Canadian, with a hint of possible tropical development on those models. All models bring tropical-type moisture over our region by Saturday as this low scoots out to sea to our south.

Daily details .

Monday .

Precipitable water values are forecast to drop to 0.5 to 1.0 inches as deep layer dry air spreads southward across most of the region. Expecting mainly a dry day with chances any shower or thunderstorm activity confined to western and southern CT. Highs mainly in the 80s except 70s along the immediate coast.

Tuesday .

Southerly flow develops as high pressure moves off the coast. Highs in the 80s. Sea breezes at the coast. Dewpoints climb to the mid 60s. Not much to trigger thunderstorms, other than typical summertime heat and humidity. have 20-30 percent PoPs, especially in western sections.

Wednesday through Friday . **Heat Indices may exceed 95 degrees each day**

Hot, humid conditions Wednesday through Friday. Highs will reach the 90s inland each day, with each day a degree or two warmer. By Friday, expecting highs in the mid 90s at many inland locations. The heat will combine with sultry dewpoints near or above 70 degrees to produce Heat Index values of 95 to 98 degrees in parts of the area, especially the Connecticut Valley and Merrimack Valley. Heat Advisories will likely be required.

The temperatures at 700 mb will be approaching or exceeding 9C, which is rather high, but probably not high enough to cap convection. So, from mid afternoon through evening hours each day, there will be scattered thunderstorms. With precipitable water values approaching 2 inches, any storms will produce torrential downpours and possible localized flooding.

Saturday .

Saturday's forecast will largely depend on the outcome of the low pressure development over the Mid-Atlantic states on Friday and its movement. All models bring excessively moist tropical air over us with precipitable water values well over 2 inches on Saturday. The ECMWF implies possible tropical development well to our south, with a convective band across southern New England. The Canadian also has the low just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The GFS remains over land with the low center, which drifts northward toward us. The upshot is there is a lot of uncertainty but showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain appear likely over our region. The clouds and rain could hold temperatures in the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

2315Z update

This evening: High confidence.

VFR as most TAF sites, outside of outer Cape Cod and Nantucket where low clouds will persist. Could be some brief clearing on Nantucket for a few hours.

Tonight: Moderate to high confidence.

Higher confidence in VFR conditions west of ORH. However, probable ongoing MVFR-IFR stratus and mist across the Cape and outer wates should expand westward toward BOS-PVD-BED-ORH after 04z and continue through daybreak. Potential for showers/possible thunder SE of I-95 10-12z but confidence not high. E winds veer to SE and S 4-8 kt.

Sunday: Moderate confidence.

Continued MVFR-IFR near/east of ORH, with low-prob of showers/possible thunder SE of BOS-PVD/I-95. Improvement toward VFR mid-morning/early-afternoon. Thereafter, lowered confidence on location and timing of any possible TSRA in northwest flow aloft between 18-00z. Higher confidence on TSRA into NH. Best chance appears to be near or north of a FIT-BOS line, but may extend as far south as an ORE-ORH-PVD-PVC line. If storms develop, potential for any one to become strong with localized gusty winds and brief sub-VFR visby.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA and isolated TSRA early, patchy BR.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance TSRA, slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA, patchy BR.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE.

715 PM update .

Tonight through Sunday: High confidence.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through Sunday. Low clouds and fog (visbys 1-3 miles) will continue to affect most waters tonight.

Southerly winds expected on Sunday. Potential exists for thunderstorms, some possibly strong, on the northern and eastern waters later Sunday afternoon though confidence on development is low.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BW/GAF NEAR TERM . BW/GAF SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . GAF AVIATION . BW/GAF MARINE . BW/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 25 mi74 min SE 2.9 65°F 1013 hPa63°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi59 min 67°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 28 mi59 min SSE 11 G 12 63°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.0)63°F
CMLN3 29 mi175 min NW 9.9 63°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 32 mi115 min S 5.8 G 5.8 64°F 2 ft1010.8 hPa
44073 34 mi115 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi69 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 64°F2 ft1011.8 hPa (-0.5)65°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 45 mi115 min SSE 7.8 G 12 3 ft1018.8 hPa
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 47 mi59 min S 8 G 9.9 62°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 48 mi54 min 65°F3 ft
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 49 mi59 min SSE 1.9 63°F 62°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA3 mi65 minVar 410.00 miFair75°F64°F69%1013 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA15 mi66 minSE 810.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1012.1 hPa
Manchester Airport, NH22 mi66 minSSE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds82°F64°F56%1012.3 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi68 minSE 510.00 miFair77°F63°F62%1013.2 hPa
Nashua - Boire Field Airport, NH23 mi63 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLWM

Wind History from LWM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE11NE7NE7NE5NE6NE7NE6NE6N5N5NE6N5NE3CalmW34E4545E7E8SE64
1 day agoS4W5SW53CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE10NE13
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3SW4SW35SW5NW73CalmW5W5SW8S5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts
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Newburyport
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:08 AM EDT     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT     7.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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97.75.93.71.5-0.2-1-0.51.43.96.27.57.87.264.32.510.20.424.578.8

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport (Merrimack River), Massachusetts Current
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Newburyport (Merrimack River)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:22 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:42 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:45 PM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:03 PM EDT     1.80 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.3-1-0.10.81.21.61.71.10.1-0.7-1.2-1.2-1.2-1-0.30.61.21.51.81.4

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.