Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM   Moonset 12:42 PM

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LEZ041 Expires:202405021515;;478316 Fzus51 Kbuf 020805 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez040-041-021515- buffalo to ripley along lake erie- 405 am edt Thu may 2 2024
Today - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - North winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 021513 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1113 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure across the western Great Lakes will ridge across the region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Friday morning.
A series of fronts will then slide across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday bringing the next round of rain showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Ridging will build in across western and central NY through this afternoon. Meanwhile, the weak shortwave that passed by to our north during the early morning hours will dive southeast across far northeastern NY and New England, but should remain just far enough to our northeast to keep areas toward the North Country dry.
Somewhat cooler air will filter in behind the front which will knock our temperatures down a bit from yesterday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s south of Lake Ontario, with upper 50s to low 60s east of Lake Ontario. Still a bit above average for early May.

Surface high pressure slides east of the area while upper level ridge crests overhead Thursday night. These features will keep our weather dry with overnight lows mainly ranging through the 40s, with low 50s possible along the Lake Erie shore northwest of the Chautauqua Ridge/Boston Hills owed to a weak southeasterly flow developing on the back side of the high.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The axis of a mid level ridge will drift east across NY/PA on Friday, with 850MB temps soaring to +14C by afternoon across Western NY. This will bring summer-like temperatures to Western NY, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations. The North Country will be a little cooler, being farther removed from the thermal axis over Western NY, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. An ENE flow over Lake Ontario will also keep the south shore of Lake Ontario much cooler, especially west of Rochester.

Most of Friday will be dry. The ridge axis will begin to drift east by late afternoon, with height falls and DPVA reaching Western NY by the end of the afternoon. This will support increasing clouds later in the day, and a few spotty showers and thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon across Western NY. This would be most probable just east of Lake Erie in the typical lake breeze convergence zone from northwest PA into southwest NY mainly south/southeast of Buffalo.

Friday night through Saturday night unsettled weather will return to the region. The mid level trough upstream will drift east into the eastern Great Lakes and then stall as the downstream pattern stagnates in response to a closed low over the North Atlantic to the east of New England. A plume of deep moisture will become situated across the eastern Great Lakes, with numerous convectively augmented vorticity maxima drifting through the mean southwest flow across the region.

The combination of moisture and forcing will bring occasional rounds of showers Friday night across Western NY, and then the entire region Saturday through Saturday night. The best chance of thunder will be on the front side of the system late Friday afternoon and Friday night when instability is greatest. Cooler temperatures will then restrict the thunder potential Saturday through Saturday night, although there may still be a slight chance of a few spotty thunderstorms if there are enough breaks in the rain and overcast.
The clouds and showers will keep highs in the mid 60s for lower elevations and around 60 for higher terrain Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunday, the mid level trough axis stalled over the eastern Great Lakes since Friday night will start to make some eastward progress, and also weaken with time. Lingering weak forcing and moisture will still support a few rounds of showers, with the greatest coverage likely to be east of the Genesee Valley.

Surface high pressure and a bubble of drier air will then build into the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, with a return to mainly dry weather. Model guidance begins to diverge with the timing of the next system by Tuesday, with the GFS faster in the return of moisture and forcing while the ECMWF/GEM are slower. Given the slower trend of the ECMWF/GEM, kept POPs on the lower end of the chance range.

Rain chances will increase Tuesday night through Wednesday as low pressure moves into the upper Midwest, with a downstream warm front moving northeast across the Great Lakes region. Enough instability may return to support at least a slight chance of thunder by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will continue to run above average through the period, with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday giving way to 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions generally light breezes expected for the remainder of the day as high pressure builds in across western and central NY in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The exception will be toward the North Country (KART) where the southwestern edge of better low level moisture associated with shortwave diving southeastward across New England will just graze this area. These low level decks may produce a brief period of MVFR/low VFR CIGS late this morning through mid afternoon before this feature moves further southeastward away from our area. Any rain shower activity should remain across far northeastern NY and New England.

High pressure in control tonight providing widespread VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across western NY.

Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible thunderstorms.

Sunday...Morning showers, then a chance of afternoon showers, otherwise mainly VFR.

Monday...VFR.

MARINE
Mainly weak pressure gradients are expected through the end of the work week into this weekend across the lower Great Lakes supporting winds to generally remain below 15 knots. While the remainder of the work week will remain quiet, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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