Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Waterloo, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:24PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 9:28 AM EDT (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 5:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 834 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:202008040330;;892747 FZUS51 KBUF 040034 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 834 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-040330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waterloo, NY
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location: 42.86, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 041322 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 922 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical System Isaias will bring waves of rain and embedded thunder today through this evening. Rain may be heavy at times, especially east of Interstate 81, with some potential for flash flooding. Gusty winds are expected in Poconos to Catskills this afternoon through evening as the system whips through the area. Drier and cooler weather is expected for Wednesday onward.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 930 AM Update . No major changes with this latest update. Steady rain has already been able to spread across much of our area, with some embedded cells across Pike and Sullivan counties showing rotation in an area of strong bulk shear. As for hydro, dual pol has been performing fairly well in terms of precip accumulation estimates (in excess of an inch in portions of Sullivan county) and the heaviest cells are showing rain rates up to 1-2 inches.

Still looking like the heaviest of rain (apart from these embedded cells) will push into our NE PA counties by 16Z and into central NY by 18Z. This will be quick to move out, almost entirely out of our area by 21Z.

415 AM Update . Tropical Storm Isaias will impact the region today, with locally heavy rainfall especially east of Interstate 81. A Flash Flood Watch remains in affect for most of Northeast PA, while being expanded into Chenango-Broome Counties in NY, joining Sullivan- Delaware-Otsego Counties. Also, gusty winds are anticipated in the Poconos to Catskills as the system whips by this afternoon through evening.

Isaias made landfall early in the night, and is quickly advancing north-northeast towards our region. Tropical moisture as expected is running way out ahead of it, with forced lift in the right entrance region of an anti-cyclonically curved jet over our area. This jet set up with an incoming tropical system, is a hallmark of other past flood events in our area. We do have some help in the form of generally dry conditions in recent weeks for much of the area, allowing room for initial rainfall today. However, rainfall rates will pick up considerably with the approach of the system itself, in isolated pockets by mid day and then more widespread across the Flash Flood Watch area this afternoon to early evening. Models have made a very slight yet noteworthy devil-in-the-details nudge westward with the heaviest rainfall axis. Swath of 2-4 inches remains likely for the Poconos-Catskills with locally higher amounts, but may edge a little bit west as well to include more of the Wyoming Valley- Susquehanna County areas of PA, and a bit into Broome-Chenango Counties in NY. There will be a sharp gradient to lower values immediately west of the heavier rainfall axis.

However, it is very important not to get hung up too much on totals; it is the rainfall rates that will be the bigger problem. For example, most of our area could pretty easily take a couple inches of rain total; the problem is that most of that may occur in a very short window of time. Thus even only 2 inches or so of rain could result in flash flooding, especially poor drainage/urban areas. And unfortunately, some locations will likely get well over that, especially the Poconos- Catskills areas.

Pike-Sullivan counties continue to be enough within the expected track to get strong gusty winds as the system whips by this afternoon- evening. 40-50 mph gusts are likely especially at higher elevations, which is easily enough to cause some tree damage and at least scattered power outages. The Wind Advisory thus remains in effect for Pike-Sullivan. However, it should be noted that any individual embedded storm cells even a bit west of Pike-Sullivan could also cause locally gusty winds. Also, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in Pike-Sullivan; even a very small chance of an isolated tornado within embedded convective cells, though that threat will be higher towards the coast, east of the storm track. High bulk shear values will accompany the passage of the system in our far eastern zones, supporting the marginal risk.

Rain very quickly exits south-southwest to north-northeast from 5-8 PM. However, impacts from flooding may linger quite a bit into tonight and thus the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect. A few of our flashier/headwaters-type river points, particularly in the Upper Delaware basin, are likely to experience strong rises. While we do not yet currently have those forecast points getting to flood, it would not take much to nudge it that way. The potential is definitely there, should a locally higher heavy rain footprint align well with any of the smaller basins.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. In the wake of Isaias, a relatively quiet short term forecast period is expected.

An upper level low will move from Ontario into Quebec on Wednesday. With cyclonic flow around it, a few morning showers will be possible along and north of the NY Thruway. Expecting coverage of these showers to be relatively isolated as a dry airmass will be in place. Otherwise, expect increasing sunshine throughout the day as high pressure moves in from the west. Highs will likely be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. With dewpoints falling into the 50s, it will feel rather comfortable outside with minimal humidity.

With high pressure moving into the area, mostly clear skies and light winds are expected Wednesday night. This will set the stage for radiational cooling. Lows will likely be in the 50s for the majority of the area. A few locations may even drop into the upper 40s. Valley fog is also expected to develop, especially with some leftover ground moisture from Isaias.

High pressure will be in control for Thursday, leading to mostly sunny skies. Highs will remain seasonable, mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. With dewpoints mainly in the 50s once again, humidity levels will be rather low, leading to comfortable conditions.

A wave passing by to our south may bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the area on Friday, mainly during the afternoon. Best chance for this will be across the Southern Tier of NY into Northeast PA. That being said, coverage of any showers will be rather limited and the majority of the area will likely remain dry. Highs will likely be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Then any lingering showers or thunderstorms taper off Friday evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Relatively quiet weather is expected this weekend as high pressure will be in control. A few pop-up showers or thunderstorms will be possible either day, but the majority of the area will likely remain dry. Temperatures will be on a warming trend. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s. Then mid to upper 80s expected for Sunday.

As high pressure moves east of the area, a weak wave may bring a few showers or thunderstorms to the area on Monday. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s once again.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Deteriorating conditions are underway this morning as moisture runs well ahead of Tropical System Isaias causing waves of showers and lowering ceilings. As the day carries on, rain may be heavy at times and could include embedded thunder, especially KAVP-KBGM-KRME. Fuel alternate to IFR ceilings will also become more common. Track of storm center will pass close enough to KAVP to involve that terminal in low level wind shear conditions for several hours early to mid afternoon. Back edge of rain shield will quickly lift southwest to northeast through the region mid afternoon-early evening, with significant improvement in conditions as evening progresses. However, MVFR to fuel alternate ceiling will move back in for KSYR-KRME-KELM late tonight. Light south or east winds, will switch around northwest to west or even southwest as the system passes this evening. High winds are not anticipated from the tropical system, though any embedded thunderstorm cells could cause stronger gusts. Chances for thunderstorms are not high enough today to include in individual TAFs due to lack of confidence, but monitor closely for amendments.

Outlook . Wednesday through Saturday . VFR, except late night-early morning valley fog likely at KELM beginning Wednesday night; possibly other terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ039-040-043-044- 047-048-072. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ048. NY . Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ045-046-056-057- 062. Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . HLC/MDP SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 46 mi28 min S 2.9 G 5.1 71°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi58 min SSE 8 G 9.9 70°F 1012.2 hPa66°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 48 mi58 min 70°F 1011.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY17 mi35 minSSE 39.00 miLight Rain70°F66°F87%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W5SW6CalmW7NE73CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS5CalmSW3S3
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2 days agoSW3E55NE5SE745443SE4SW6S4S4CalmS3SE5S4CalmS5S5S8S6S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.