Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 251459 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 959 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. While weak high pressure will provide fair dry weather through the first half of tonight . conditions will then deteriorate as a storm passing over the region on Tuesday will guarantee that we will experience some wintry precipitation. A wintry mix will be found across at least the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region . while mainly snow will be found elsewhere. All areas will pick up a little light snow Tuesday night. Temperatures for the remainder of the week will average below normal . especially on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Weak high pressure will provide us with fair dry weather today into at least the first half of tonight.

A weak sfc low over the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight will track across our forecast area on Tuesday. While this will guarantee that our region will experience wintry precipitation . there is still some uncertainty as to how far north the mixed pcpn will get. At this juncture . a wintry mix is anticipated for the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region late tonight through Tuesday with snow and sleet accumulations forecast to be in the vcnty of 1-2 inches. Meanwhile sites further north should pick up mainly wet snow to the tue of 3-5 inches. Lesser amounts are expected across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

Tuesday night . colder air in the wake of the exiting sfc low will enable any residual mixed pcpn to change back to just snow. Negligible snow amounts expected Tues night with most areas picking up less than an inch . although amounts east of Lake Ontario could approach 3 inches.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Northwest flow will continue across the region and result in mostly cloudy conditions with lingering upslope snow showers Wednesday. A strong area of high pressure over the Plains will build into the Great Lakes region and colder air will arrive for the end of the work week. Temperatures at 850mb will fall from -13C Wednesday to - 18C Thursday. A lake response will increase however the airmass building in will be dry keeping snow showers weak with minor accumulations south of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday-Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 20s Wednesday to the teens to low 20s Thursday. Low temperatures will fall to the single digits to teens Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A sharp mid level trough is forecast to move southeast across Ontario and Quebec Thursday night, reaching New England Friday. The associated arctic front may produce a few snow showers Thursday night and early Friday, with lake effect snow showers increasing southeast of the lakes as well. Lake effect snow showers may linger into Friday night before ending by Saturday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Another mid level trough will reach the central US by Saturday night, then move towards the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Sunday. Warm air advection ahead of a surface low will increase chances for rain, snow, and/or a wintry mix Sunday. There are timing differences in the mid-range models but all are in agreement that low pressure will deepen as it moves off the east coast into early next week. Wrap- around moisture will increase the chance for snow across the region during this time.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. While some MVFR cigs will linger at KART into the midday hours . VFR weather with light winds can be expected through at least the first of tonight.

Conditions will then deteriorate late tonight and especially Tuesday when a weak surface low will move through the region. Cigs will lower to MVFR levels with mixed pcpn across the Southern Tier late tonight with MVFR overspreading the remainder of western New York during the day Tuesday.

Outlook .

Tuesday night . MVFR in light snow. Wednesday . Scattered snow showers with local IFR and MVFR CIGS in the morning, improving to VFR. Thursday and Friday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE. High pressure will build across the area today, with light winds and negligible waves lasting into tonight.

Low pressure will then move northeastward from the Ohio Valley tonight and weaken as it moves across Western New York Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will remain to the north of the Great Lakes. This will result in a period of stronger ENE winds on the lakes, which is likely to require small craft headlines for most of Lake Ontario, and possibly Lake Erie tonight into Tuesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001>004-010-011-014. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ019>021. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ012-013-085. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . RSH SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Hitchcock/HSK AVIATION . RSH MARINE . Apffel

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	10 mi	75 min	S 2.9 G 4.1	30°F	34°F		1018.3 hPa (-1.8)	1°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	12 mi	75 min		30°F			1017.9 hPa (-1.6)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	15 mi	75 min		33°F			1018.3 hPa (-1.8)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	29 mi	75 min	NE 5.1 G 6	31°F			1018.3 hPa (-2.2)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	38 mi	75 min	NW 2.9 G 4.1	31°F			1020 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	19 mi	21 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	35°F	19°F	52%	1018.7 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	19 mi	22 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	35°F	20°F	54%	1019.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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