Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NY

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 161500 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of weak fronts will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from midday today into this evening. Mid summer heat and humidity can then be expected for Friday through at least the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. . Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening..

Well defined MCV spinning eastward over western Lake Erie will make its way across western New York this afternoon and to north of the North Country this evening. This feature will push a series of weak fronts across our region today. Initial showers and storms during the midday not expected to be significant . but as the activity moves east it could intensify over parts of the Genesee valley. Of greater concern will be convection that will blossom this afternoon in the wake of the initial area of showers and storms.

Greatest risk for strong to severe storms still likely in time range from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong for middle of summer with low-level shear 25-30+kts also strong. The shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL, effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat. Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk.

Expect clusters of diminishing thunderstorms to rumble toward the North County early in the evening while diminishing over WNY and Genesee valley. Showers will diminish further overnight as cool and moist air works in behind the front. Based on upstream trends behind the low this morning, could see low stratus and fog later tonight with dense fog possible in typically prone valleys of the Southern Tier. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to around 70F.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will slowly press from west to east across the forecast area on Friday, pushing east of the region by mid afternoon. This will allow any leftover showers (and storms east of Lake Ontario) to taper off in a similar fashion. Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will then be the dominate features for Friday night through Saturday night providing dry weather. Otherwise, high temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s. Warm advection will be on the increase by Saturday. This will boost highs into the mid and upper 80s across much of the forecast area, with the typically warmer locales across the Genesee Valley and lake plains south of Lake Ontario likely reaching the lower 90s. Humidity levels will remain in check, which should preclude the need for any heat related headlines, as apparent temperatures should fail to reach 95F anywhere in our forecast area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period, along with a marked increase in humidity levels as well. The first half of the day should remain dry, before the chance for a few showers and storms increases from northwest to southeast across the area later in the afternoon into the evening well ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. However, the main story will be the heat and increased humidity for the second half of the weekend. 850Ts in the vicinity of +20C will allow high temperatures to surge into low to mid 90s across much of the lower terrain south of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s elsewhere. The combination of these temps and dew points rising into the upper 60s to low 70s will possibly necessitate the need for heat headlines across the lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

A better chance for showers and storms comes Sunday night as a weak cold front crosses the region. Our area will then become sandwiched in between strong upper level ridging to the south and broad upper level troughing across the upper Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. Mid level flow will strengthen in response to this regime, however there are no pronounced disturbances set to move through the upper flow during this time. This should translate to a good deal of dry time, however the combination of continued heat and humidity along with enhanced upper flow may be enough to produce a few showers or storms from time to time, especially during the afternoon and early evening. A sharper upper trough and associated surface wave will approach the area Wednesday, bringing a better chance for some showers and storms as we approach mid week. Otherwise as mentioned, the heat and humidity will stick around through the first half of next week. However, it will not be nearly as warm as Sunday, with highs generally ranging from the lower to mid 80s Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. While VFR conditions will be in place across the region for the bulk of this afternoon . showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly widespread. This will result in localized MVFR conditons with some of the stronger storms producing very heavy rain and localized wind gusts over 40 kts.

In the wake of the convection . tonight will feature IFR to MVFR cigs. The stronger storms will taper off to scattered showers from west to east.

Outlook .

Friday . Becoming VFR. A chance of showers in the morning. Saturday . VFR. Sunday and Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds will veer to the south across the region today, and while winds will freshen a bit in some areas, the main concern will be the likelihood for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The storms will have an elevated risk of producing strong wind gusts.

A brief period of stronger winds are expected tonight. Though southerly wind direction will be mainly offshore, wind speeds and waves support Small Craft Advisory over nearshore waters of far eastern Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA/JM/RSH

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	10 mi	56 min			79°F
45142 - Port Colborne	14 mi	110 min	SW 9.7 G 12	76°F	74°F	3 ft	1016.5 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	29 mi	50 min	SSW 5.1 G 8	76°F			1017.1 hPa (+1.2)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby	36 mi	110 min	E 5.8 G 7.8	77°F	74°F	1 ft	1015.7 hPa
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	38 mi	50 min	S 6 G 9.9	79°F			1017.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

Last 24hr

W4

W7

W9

W9

W9

W7

SW4 G7

SW4

S3

SW3

--

S1

SE2

SE4 G7

SE5

SE10 G14

SE9 G15

S13 G17

S8 G13

SE11 G17

SE8 G14

SE6 G11

S5

W17 G24

1 day ago

SW10 G13

SW8

SW7 G11

SW11

SW10

SW12 G15

SW12

SW8

SW7

W10

SW5 G8

SW6

SW4 G7

SE3

SE3

SE3

SE2

E3

E4

E4

E4

E3

SW2

W6

2 days ago

SW11 G16

SW12 G16

SW14

W14

SW15

W16

SW16

W14 G19

W10

NW5

N3

NW5

NE5

NE5

N3

N4

NE2

NW6

NW6

NW8

NW7

W4

SW5 G8

SW12

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	19 mi	56 min	S 7	9.00 mi	Light Rain	80°F	66°F	64%	1017 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	19 mi	57 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Light Rain	78°F	66°F	67%	1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

Last 24hr

S3

S8

6

W7

SW5

SW7

SW4

Calm

Calm

NE4

E3

E4

SE6

SE6

SE6

SE7

SE7

SE9

S8

S8

SE8

SE8

S9

S7

1 day ago

W7

SW5

Calm

W7

W8

SW6

W6

SW8

SW5

SW5

SW7

W3

SW3

SE4

S3

SE4

S3

SE5

SE3

SE3

SE5

E5

SE5

S5

2 days ago

SW10

NW9

W8

W10

SW9

W13

W12

W8

Calm

W3

W3

N10

Calm

Calm

Calm

Calm

NW3

W3

W4

W4

W5

5

W5

W8

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)

      (on/off)   Help

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.