Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 102219 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 519 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow will be on the move tonight through Wednesday night along with areas of blowing snow. Relatively weak lake effect banding will continue to develop east of the lakes this evening, then move north across Buffalo and Watertown areas Wednesday morning, then back south again in the afternoon. Lake bands will weaken southeast of the lakes Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. An interesting lake effect event will be unfolding tonight through Wednesday night. Confidence in timing and location is fairly high, but amounts and intensity is not quite as high.

Weak lake effect processes are now underway generally as expected downwind of Lake Erie with low-topped convection capped at ~7000' with very dry air above that level. This is resulting in light accumulations toward the Chautauqua Ridge late this afternoon. Temperatures at cap level will continue to slowly drop through the night but with little or no increase in available moisture as seen by numerous but lackluster upstream horizontal convective rolls over MI.

East of Lake Erie .

Early this evening, westerly flow along the Chautauqua Ridge and sufficient lapse rates supportive of lake effect processes will result in a period of lake effect snow through the evening hours. An advisory is in effect for traditional westerly flow regions (portions of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties), but snow rates overnight may be somewhat unimpressive due to the initial lack of available moisture and still cooling airmass, followed by backing winds overnight that will begin to disrupt any nocturnal consolidation. Do not expect much more than an inch or two in these areas.

The more interesting event will occur near sunrise as the band heads north (during the commute) across the Southtowns, and then into Metro Buffalo during the morning. Some strengthening of the mostly singular band is expected during this time with full lake fetch. The band should reach its northern extent by midday, probably just clipping SE Niagara County and part of Orleans County before heading back to the south as the main upper level trough finally moves in. There remains uncertainty on the strength and duration of the band while it lingers over/north of Metro Buffalo and into the Northtowns. But, once it starts to move, it should quickly head south, with the entire lake band swinging south (and/or being pushed into the shoreline), blowing past the Southtowns, and back into the Southern Tier. The band may be briefly strong during the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from the upper level trough. The band should then begin to weaken later Wednesday evening after losing adequate fetch while the airmass aloft continues to dry out.

The lower confidence in amounts is compounded by the possibility of blowing snow. This should may help keep snow amounts down some, but it will also result in a relatively impactful day in terms of travel. While not a banner event by any means, this event should still be troublesome for some. As such, a fairly strongly worded advisory remains in place.

Most areas should end up with a an inch or two as the band moves north, followed by another inch or two as the band moves south. Highest amounts should be over Northern Erie County where the band lingers the longest. It's possible some areas could exceed 7" if the band lingers before heading south, but the emphasis for this event should be focused more in impact from blowing snow rather than amounts.

East of Lake Ontario .

A lake banding will probably have a hard time getting established until late tonight ESE of Lake Ontario due to the above noted limited moisture availability. Some consolidation is expected during Wednesday as flow backs, with a better defined lake band forming by afternoon with Lake Erie serving as its upstream connection. Once this is established, a lake band should be roughly over the St Lawrence Valley. But with continued limited moisture and less than ideal fetch, snow rates and corresponding snow amounts should be low, at least until the band starts moving back south toward the more traditional/long fetch east of Lake Ontario in the afternoon. An upstream multi-lake connection should then be established ESE of Lake Ontario by Wednesday evening together with the coldest air aloft. This may result in the best opportunity for snow rates of 1-2"/hr, but only for a relatively short duration Wednesday evening. Increasingly dry air aloft should weaken lake bands overnight.

Similar to downwind of Erie, areas east of Lake Ontario will be under an Advisory with blowing snow possibly leading to as much of an impact as snow amounts. In general, expect snow amounts to be fairly tame over this traditionally hard-hit region, with most locations staying under 7". Highest amounts should be over the Tug Hill and toward Oswego County (mainly late Wed-->Wed eve), with less, possibly much less elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Surface high pressure will pass by to our south through the Mid- Atlantic states on Thursday and then off the Northeast coast near Long Island by Thursday evening. Any residual lake effect snows Thursday morning will further weaken or diminish completely off Lake Erie. It appears at this point, the only remaining lake effect snows will likely be off Lake Ontario early Thursday morning. The band off Lake Ontario will quickly traverse Oswego county and then heads north into Jefferson county by mid-morning in response to winds backing to the south and southwest. This band as it heads north may potentially make for some tricky travel conditons on I-81 during the morning commute. Otherwise, once the band arrives over Jefferson county it will likely be fairly weak and should fall apart as warm advection processes take over, equilibrium levels fall, and moisture depletes within the dendritic growth zone. Additional accumulations of an inch or so will be possible with most locals receiving less than that. It will still be a fairly chilly day with highs peaking in the 20s to low 30s.

Surface high pressure will then drift off the New England coast Thursday night. Warm advection processes will really begin to kick in as the high departs along with an increase in mid/high clouds. Any precipitation associated with the warm front will likely stay well north of our region. No issue Friday with dry weather expected all day. Ongoing warm advection will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s in most areas, with 30s limited to the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Dry weather will gradually come to an end Friday night as a southern stream trough aids in the development of low pressure over the deep south. Deep southerly flow will advect moisture northward ahead of the low with increasing chances for showers overnight. Initially, there might be a chance the rain starts as a little wintry mix across the North Country. As the low advances northward, a northern stream trough will track towards the western lakes. These two systems will eventually phase and likely produce widespread rain on Saturday. Lows Friday night will likely follow a non-diurnal temperature trend and occuring early. Look for lows in the 30s early, then rising. Highs on Saturday will peak in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The northern stream portion of this phasing system mentioned above will likely cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. Colder air deepening across the eastern Great Lakes and H850T falling to -11C/-13C will bring the potential for lake effect- enhanced snows east of the lakes. Otherwise, lows Saturday night will fall back into the low 30s by daybreak Sunday morning. Temperatures on Sunday will likely not change all that much with highs in the mid 30s for most locations.

The system will move out into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night and Monday. Colder air continuing to filter into the Great Lakes in its wake will continue to support lake effect snows east and southeast of the lakes. Monday, the surface high to our west builds across the Lower Lakes with any lake snows gradually winding down. Monday night into Tuesday, the next system pulls out of the Mississippi valley with an increasing chance for precipitation. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to track and timing. ECMWF passes this system well to our south while the GFS tracks it directly towards our region. For now have added just chance POPs with so much uncertainty.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. MVFR will become increasingly common this evening under westerly flow, with some lake banding east of Lake Erie and to a lesser extent Lake Ontario. The airmass will begin to dry out with a mix of IFR under moving lake bands Wednesday with VFR outside any banding. In general, expect a lake band to move north across KBUF to about KIAG in the morning, then back south early in the afternoon. (KROC will likely not be impacted by this band.) KART should see a similar pattern, but in the afternoon. KJHW will be impacted by some lake effect tonight, and then again late Wednesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday night and Thursday morning . IFR in lake effect snow to the SE of the lakes. Thursday afternoon . becoming VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . IFR in lake effect possible . otherwise VFR.

MARINE. Small Craft Advisories will remain over the Lower Lakes region through at least Wednesday, with Gales on most of Lake Ontario. There may be a period where winds drop off this evening, but winds will again pick up on Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A period of low end gale force winds will develop Wednesday afternoon and evening on Lake Ontario. The strong onshore winds, high wave action, and high lake levels will bring an increased risk of lakeshore flooding along the Lake Ontario shore at the east end of the lake. A Lakeshore Flood Watch remains in effect for Jefferson, Oswego, and northern Cayuga counties Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. This event will not be as significant as the Halloween night lakeshore flooding, but still may be high enough to result in some flooding in flood prone areas and more shoreline erosion.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008. Lakeshore Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ010-011. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ019-020. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044-045-063>065. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ062. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ044- 045.



SYNOPSIS . Zaff NEAR TERM . Apffel/Zaff SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . Apffel/Zaff MARINE . Zaff TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/Zaff

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	10 mi	71 min	WNW 15 G 20	31°F	40°F		1017.4 hPa	16°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	12 mi	77 min		32°F			1017 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	15 mi	77 min		30°F			1017.3 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY	29 mi	41 min	WNW 19 G 22	32°F			1018.3 hPa (+4.6)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	38 mi	41 min	WNW 25 G 28	31°F			1019 hPa (+5.8)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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S12

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SW15 G19

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SW20 G27

SW21 G27

SW20 G25

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S18 G23

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2 days ago

E6

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SE11 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY	19 mi	47 min	WNW 13 G 20	8.00 mi	Light Snow	30°F	21°F	72%	1018.4 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	19 mi	48 min	WNW 13	9.00 mi	Light Snow	29°F	19°F	66%	1019.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)

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S19

SW16 G23

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SW18 G36

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SW23 G31

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W19 G25

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W11 G20

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W10 G17

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1 day ago

S19 G26

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S18 G22

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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