Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grandyle Village, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 8:10PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:50 PM EDT (19:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:18PMMoonset 11:11AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 705 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy.
Friday..North winds less than 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off buffalo is 74 degrees.
LEZ020 Expires:201908211530;;979090 FZUS51 KBUF 211105 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 705 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ020-211530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grandyle Village, NY
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location: 42.86, -79.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211807
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
207 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the region tonight. While this could
spark a few more showers or thunderstorms... It will bring an end to
a stretch of warm and muggy conditions. We will then experience
spectacular weather Thursday through the upcoming weekend with
little cloud cover... Comfortable temperatures and low humidity.

Near term through Thursday
During the remainder of the afternoon... Our forecast area will find
itself within an unstable airmass well ahead of an approaching cold
front. A well established lake shadow downwind of lake erie will
keep the buf metro area and much of the iag frontier free of any
rainfall... While there will be the risk for some widely separated
showers and storms most elsewhere.

Any convection that does fire up before 6 pm will likely do so along
and just ahead of a strengthening lake breeze boundary. As of
1730z... This line of enhanced CU stretched from near batavia
southwest along the chautauqua ridge to about ripley. As this
mesoscale forcing mechanism pushes east... It will encounter sbcapes
averaging 1500 j kg. Fortunately bulk shear values will only range
from 20 to 25 knots... So there will not be a significant risk for
severe weather. Pwat values in the vcnty of 1.5" though could
encourage pockets of locally heavy rain... Mainly over the southern
tier and finger lakes region. That being said... The coverage for the
possible convection should not be nearly as widespread as that from
early this morning.

Otherwise it will be warm and humid for the rest of the afternoon
with 70 degree dew points being accompanied by temperatures that
will largely range from the low to mid 80s.

A cold front will gradually push to the south across our forecast
area tonight. Other than a very modest 30kt low level jet and some
convergence near and ahead of this boundary... There really is not
much forcing to support widespread pcpn. A strong h25 jet will pass
to our north... But it will be in the 'wrong' place to give any
additional lift from the upper levels. It is interesting to note
though... That most if not all of the guidance packages are grossly
under estimating the strength of the ul jet. Aircraft measurements
from across minnesota this morning measured winds >160kts with this
jet... But upper air soundings have only been able to 'capture' winds
of 115 to 120kts. As mentioned though... The position of the jet is
more important and this is not favorable for significant weather
production. In any case... Will use chc pops for showers and
thunderstorms.

Thursday will feature improving conditions... As a cooler and notably
drier airmass will gradually push across our region in the wake of
the overnight cold frontal passage. While a brief shower cannot be
ruled out across the southern tier... Dry air advecting south in the
mid levels and a developing subsidence inversion should keep any
shower activity to a minimum. Otherwise... It will become
increasingly comfortable as dew points in the lower 60s during the
morning will drop through the 50s during the afternoon. Meanwhile...

afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Upper level trough that drops across lower great lakes and northeast
conus late this week will still be mainly north and west of the
region on Thursday. Though primary cold front sweeps across by late
Wednesday night, strongest cold air advection will lag the fropa,
not really arriving until Friday. Strong upper jet over 110 kts on
leading side of upper trough and another weaker shortwave area of
deeper moisture may trigger isolated showers over southern tier
during peak heating Thursday afternoon, but otherwise dry weather
should prevail though skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. High
temperatures will settle into the low to mid 70s, coolest in the
southern tier and to east of lake ontario. Most clouds will fade on
Thursday night though some clouds will persist closer to eastern
lake ontario. With the clearing skies and temperatures falling into
into the upper 40s at the coolest, could be valley fog over the
southern tier.

Cold air advection continues into Friday with h85 temps down to +7c
or +8c by daybreak Friday. NW flow across the much warmer temps of
lake ontario (averaging 21c at mid lake) will result in a
conditionally unstable airmass for lake effect processes. Other than
a thin moist layer around 800mb 5-6kft, soundings look dry. There
could be just enough over-water instability and low-level
convergence for a few showers downstream of southeast lake ontario.

Any showers, if they occur, will become disrupted and disorganized
by late Friday morning due to daytime heating and strong subsidence.

Another day of expanding stratocu clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon. High temps will be in the lower 70s most
locations. After clouds clear out Friday evening, clearing skies and
cool temps could lead to another night with some valley fog in the
southern tier.

On Saturday, high pressure will be firmly in control of weather
across the region. Though ECMWF still looks overdone with depiction
of closed off upper low sinking across the mid atlantic, think a
weaker secondary shortwave dropping across southern quebec and new
england could lead to some isolated showers east of lake ontario.

Probably will just see an enhancement to clouds more than anything
else, especially with upslope northerly flow developing by that
time. High temps on Saturday begin to tick upward, mainly in the mid
70s. Low temps on Saturday night stay seasonably cool with readings
in the 50s across the board.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Sunday features dry weather as high pressure persists. The more
sluggish ECMWF would result in more clouds, but still thinking it is
overplaying the amount of upper level troughing. Temps will rebound
further with readings into the
medium range guidance begins to diverge with respect to how quickly
the ridge slides further east and out to sea... And gives way to the
next trough and associated moisture approaching from the west. The
gfs remains fastest with this overall scenario and brings increasing
chances for convection into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the
other side of the guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and
our region totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a
general distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the
latter scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.

Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions will be found across the region this afternoon and
evening... Although a developing lake breeze boundary should help to
re-ignite some thunderstorms well south and east of buffalo and
rochester.

Tonight... A cold front will gradually push across the region. While
this feature should generate more scattered convection... The vast
majority of the area should continue to experienceVFR weather. The
exception will be across the southern tier and possibly the north
country... Where late night fog and stratus could lead to MVFR to ifr
conditions.

Thursday will featureVFR weather as high pressure over central
canada will gradually build south across the upper great lakes.

Outlook...

Thursday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local MVFR ifr conditions each morning.

Marine
A southwesterly flow will be in place across the region this
afternoon ahead of a cold front with waves building to 2-4 feet on
lake erie. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes this
evening and early overnight, with waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet tonight and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario will bring waves up to 5 feet
or greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories have been issued.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes this evening.

Strengthening west to northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce significant shoreline erosion and flooding late tonight
through late Thursday afternoon. A lakeshore flood warning is
now in effect for wayne, northern cayuga and oswego counties.

Since winds will be more westerly and not as much onshore, the
lakeshore flood watch was dropped for niagara, orleans and
monroe counties.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood warning from 5 am to 5 pm edt Thursday for
nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for loz043-
044.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Thursday for
loz042.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Thursday for
loz045.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Jla
long term... Jla jjr
aviation... Rsh
marine... Hitchcock jla rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 10 mi51 min WSW 12 G 14 76°F 78°F1012.2 hPa (-0.6)64°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 12 mi57 min 75°F 1011.8 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 14 mi111 min W 12 G 14 75°F 76°F1 ft1011.7 hPa (+0.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 15 mi57 min 78°F 1011.4 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 29 mi51 min WSW 9.9 G 13 77°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.3)
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 38 mi51 min WNW 6 G 8 75°F 1010.8 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buffalo, Greater Buffalo International Airport, NY19 mi1.9 hrsSW 1210.00 miA Few Clouds79°F68°F69%1011.8 hPa
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY19 mi2 hrsSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds79°F68°F69%1011.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBUF

Wind History from BUF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--W7S4W4W4CalmCalmSE5SE5S5SE6SW8W19
G25
CalmNW3S9S4S6SW7SW9W14
G18
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1 day agoSW12SW14
G20
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SW12SW7SW6W4SW3CalmS3S5SE3SE4SE4SE4SE33S5SE4S5SW3W6
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2 days agoSW11
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SW10SW6S7S7S5S6S9W18
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G17
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G19
W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.