Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Canandaigua, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:36PM Monday December 9, 2019 11:25 AM EST (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 3:16PMMoonset 4:30AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 404 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Tuesday night...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers early, then showers from late morning on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning, then snow and rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 7 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 42 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912091615;;079602 FZUS51 KBUF 090904 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 404 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-091615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canandaigua, NY
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location: 42.88, -77.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 091458 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 958 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will track across the central Great Lakes today with above normal temperatures and rain showers, followed by colder air and lake effect snow showers for mid week. High pressure will move across the region and bring a return to dry weather for Thursday night and Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Radar shows an area of rain moving into far western New York mid-morning with model guidance showing this will spread across the entire region through early afternoon. Model guidance has overdone upslope precipitation across the western Adirondacks, and this trend is likely to continue until the boundary layer is saturated with the arrival of synoptic rain. Temperatures are above freezing across the region, and in some cases WELL above freezing with southerly downsloping pushing areas along the Lake Erie shoreline into the upper 40s.

An upper level trough will dig across the Great Lakes region through tonight, while a surface low strengthens as it tracks across the central Great Lakes today and into southwestern Quebec by tonight. A south-southwest low level jet of 45-50 knots will provide warm air and moisture advection and favorable jet dynamics will support a round of widespread rain. Rainfall amounts heavily influenced by upsloping, with higher resolution guidance showing localized amounts exceeding an inch, while the majority of the area will get between a half inch and an inch of rain. The steadiest rain will be this afternoon/evening, then will taper off from west to east tonight.

Temperatures will be well above normal during the period with high temperatures actually being met during this evening in the 40s across most areas, and even some lower 50s near the Lake Erie shoreline where downslope warming will be most pronounced. The cold front will enter western New York late tonight with southwesterly winds gusting to 35-45 mph. This front may also produce an additional round of rain showers.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A still deepening surface low will move across central and northern Quebec on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes early in the morning. The majority of the large scale forcing and moisture transport will be associated with the warm advection regime well ahead of the cold front. The actual cold front will only produce a few brief showers as it moves east across the area early in the day. Developing upslope flow will allow showers to linger a little longer across the higher terrain east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Precipitation will change over to wet snow in these upslope areas, but any accumulation will be minimal. Temperatures will still be in the 40s before daybreak, but will drop through the 30s during the day with moderately strong cold advection in the wake of the cold front. Wind gusts will reach around 30 knots in the morning northeast of the lakes in the wake of the cold front.

A weak secondary cold front will move south into the area late Tuesday afternoon and evening. This feature may produce an uptick in snow showers along the south shore of Lake Ontario as it captures a weak lake convergence band and moves it onshore. This may produce some light accumulations southeast and east of Lake Ontario. Following this secondary front, shear and dry air will likely force Lake Ontario lake effect to end completely for a time overnight Tuesday night. Off Lake Erie, the close proximity of surface high pressure will continue to introduce dry air and shear in the boundary layer, greatly limiting lake effect potential despite deepening cold air. Expect nothing more than a few snow showers Tuesday night across the western Southern Tier. Accumulations will be light Tuesday night, with no more than an inch or two southeast of the lakes.

Wednesday a mid level trough and associated clipper low will pass well north of the area, with the clipper cold front crossing the eastern Great Lakes during the mid to late afternoon. The cold front itself will do little, with nothing more than a few light snow showers. It will introduce a more favorable lake effect environment however. Convergence along the advancing cold front will merge with pre-existing lake induced convergence over both lakes, resulting in intensifying bands of lake effect snow. Lake induced equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 10-12K feet with the passage of the clipper as moisture improves and a pool of cold air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. A favorably deep mixed phase layer will be located within the cloud bearing layer, yielding dendritic growth.

Off Lake Erie .

Expect a band of relatively light lake effect snow showers to move north out of the Southern Tier and across Buffalo in the morning, ending up north of Buffalo across the Northtowns and Niagara County by late morning. This band will begin to move back south and east across the area by early to mid afternoon as the cold front reaches eastern Lake Erie. The band will intensify as it crosses the Buffalo area from a boost of synoptic support from the cold front, and increasing lake induced instability. The strong band will then move onshore from Buffalo all the way down to Chautauqua County and push inland through the Southern Tier through the late afternoon. The band of snow will continue for a few hours across the western Southern Tier Wednesday evening before quickly weakening as inversion heights lower, shear increases, and moisture decreases with high pressure building over Lake Erie.

The fast pace of the southward band drift will greatly limit accumulations, even though the band of snow may become quite heavy. Early estimates suggest 2-4 inches from the Buffalo Metro area into portions of Genesee County, and 3-5 inches across the higher terrain of Southern Erie/Wyoming counties into the Chautauqua Ridge. Even though amounts will be limited, if the brief burst of heavy snow materializes it would produce very difficult travel for a few hours. Winds will also gust 30-35 knots around this time, producing blowing and drifting snow.

Off Lake Ontario .

Expect a similar trend just a few hours later. Tuesday morning disorganized lake effect snow showers over the lake will push to the northeast end to near Kingston Ontario, possibly clipping Cape Vincent in northern Jefferson County. The band of snow will then intensify during the mid to late afternoon as the cold front approaches and synoptic support/instability improve. This intensifying band of snow will then move southeast across Jefferson County, crossing the Tug Hill region during the evening. The band will reach maximum intensity during this time frame as the best lake parameters line up with a period of upslope flow across the Tug Hill. The band will continue to march steadily southeast overnight, with a WNW to ESE oriented band of weakening lake snow moving into northern Cayuga/Wayne counties. A few snow showers may also clip the south shore farther west overnight from eastern Niagara to Monroe counties as boundary layer flow veers.

Similar to Lake Erie, the short residence time of the band in any one location will limit accumulations. Expect 2-4 or 3-5 inches across the lower elevations of the eastern Lake Ontario region, with up to 6 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. Wayne and northern Cayuga counties may see a few inches overnight. While amounts are not overly impressive, this band may produce difficult travel for a few hours with heavy snow and 30-35 knot wind gusts producing blowing and drifting.

Thursday a few lake effect snow showers may linger in the morning southeast of Lake Ontario with minor additional accumulations. High pressure will then build east across the eastern Great Lakes, ending the lake effect snow and bringing some partial clearing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure will move east off the east coast Thursday night. Warm advection in its wake will bring an increase in clouds across the eastern Great Lakes, but any precipitation will stay well north of the region. Warm advection continues Friday as a mid/upper level ridge builds into the northeast states. The warm advection will produce some cloud cover, but dry weather will continue. After a chilly start, temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s in most areas.

A complex system will then cross our region this weekend. A southern stream trough will support low pressure developing over the Gulf coast Friday. The resulting low will move almost due north, with one low center moving up the west side of the Appalachians and into the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday, with a second weak lee side low moving up the eastern seaboard. This southern stream trough will phase with a northern stream trough moving towards the western lakes, allowing an expansive area of deep layer ascent to move north across our area late Friday night and Saturday. This will produce another round of rain areawide. There is a small chance the rain may start as a wintry mix across the North Country if precipitation begins early enough, otherwise this looks to be an all rain event as temperatures warm into the 40s on Saturday.

The northern stream portion of this phasing system will then cross the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday, producing additional chances of rain and wet snow showers as colder air moves back into the region. Highs Sunday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Ongoing warm air advection will support increasing low level moisture with rain rapidly spreading across the region from west to east. Ceiling will lower quickly with the arrival of the rain, mainly to the MVFR flight category but to IFR across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, including the KJHW terminal site. Expect the southerly downslope flow to keep all TAF locations in the MVFR flight category through this evening with the exception of KJHW which does not benefit from southerly downsloping.

There may be a several hour period of IFR ceilings with the passage of a frontal boundary tonight. Steady rain will taper off late tonight behind the frontal boundary from west to east.

Outlook .

Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the lakes. Thursday . VFR with localized IFR in lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. Friday . VFR.

MARINE. Winds will stay generally out of the south today at 10 to 15 knots, but could be a bit higher east of Rochester this morning. Have replaced the Small Craft headlines this morning with new ones which are in effect late tonight through Tuesday evening for the eastern Lake Ontario waters.

A windy period is expected through much of the week as a strong cold front crosses the area Tuesday, followed by moderate westerlies Tuesday night through Thursday night. It is possible that winds will approach gale force on Lake Ontario on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. A period of warmer temperatures will cause snow melt which will add to run-off from rain on today through Tuesday. For most basins, rainfall amounts will be less than an inch and the snow pack in place is limited, resulting in little risk for flooding.

There is a bit more snow pack in place in the Black River basin, with Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) values in the 1-2 inch range. Model guidance shows a bit more QPF here, with 1-2 inches across localized favorable upslope regions. Latest RFC forecast has Boonville reaching action stage by late Tuesday, with Watertown poised to reach it just beyond the forecast period. This is in line with latest MMEFS ensembles which show a fairly high likelihood that these points will reach action stage but very low probabilities of flooding.

Based on this, have maintained a mention of this risk in the HWO. The most likely outcome remains action stage, but the situation bears watching. The greatest risk is if temperatures are warmer than expected. If this happens then the additional snow melt would be a concern, but for now there is not enough confidence to issue any flood headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/TMA/Zaff SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Apffel/TMA/Zaff MARINE . Apffel/TMA HYDROLOGY . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi85 min S 11 G 15 43°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 33 mi55 min 43°F 1009.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 57 mi55 min SSE 11 G 18 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY19 mi32 minSSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F34°F82%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPEO

Wind History from PEO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8
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W10NW9NW9NW6NW4CalmCalmS3S3S3SW5SW4S4SW3SW8SW3S7SW8
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2 days agoS7SW7W10
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W55W854NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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