Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Scotia, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday December 12, 2019 12:26 AM EST (05:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotia, NY
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location: 42.89, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 120206 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 906 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Another cold front will cross the region and usher in colder temperatures tonight into Thursday. Lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario will impact portions of the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley with some light accumulations. Thereafter, high pressure will move across the area through Thursday and be east of the region Friday. Another storm will impact the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Snow showers and flurries are breaking up as they move through eastern NY and into southern VT and Berkshires. Including slight chances for snow showers into western New England based on radar trends. Another band of snow showers in the southern Adirondacks is building south but weakening as it build south. Mesoscale model guidance suggests this breaks up as it tracks into eastern NY and western New England. Indicating snow shower activity ends in most areas during the early morning hours but lingers toward daybreak in the western Mohawk Valley and Schoharie Valley into eastern Catskills. Some adjustments to sky cover based on satellite trends as well and some touch ups to temperatures. Gusty west winds should spread across the region behind the cold front. Winds diminish toward daybreak. Previous AFD has a few more details and is below .

Lake effect snow is well underway downwind of both Lake Erie and Ontario. Mean flow is currently from southwest to northeast as those winds will veer through this evening to a more west- northwest flow. Bufkit profiles suggest extreme instability class will be in place with relatively high inversion heights near 7k feet. Inland penetration should also be impressive initially as shear at the top of the column will be moderate with intensity. Toward midnight, the NAM3km Bufkit profiles suggest the lowering inversion heights, sub-5km, will move across the lake and lowering shear magnitudes to limit inland extent a bit. At this time, per forecast snow ratios and QPF, we will keep snow amounts just below advisory criteria at this time. Elsewhere, a few flurries or snow showers are possible with some weak bands of snow through the Capital District possible tonight. Overnight lows under variable cloud coverage will range from the single digits to mid-teens.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Thursday, surface high pressure will move across the region which in turn will reduce and limit lake effect snow further and bring about more sunshine. As H850 temperatures will remain rather chilly from negative teens in the morning and a slight moderation in the afternoon, we will keep temperatures mainly into the 20s and some lower 30s for the mid-Hudson Valley. Some high and mid level clouds will move across the northern half of the CWA in the afternoon as mid level warm advection gets underway.

Thursday night into Friday, as the surface high becomes more removed to our east, an increasing southerly flow will become more apparent. Moisture transport at the low and mid levels increase which supports an increase in cloud coverage overnight and more so during Friday. In fact, guidance supports low level moisture transport from the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic will quickly advect northward with cloud coverage as we will increase our sky grids with this forecast package. Could even see some light precipitation evolve for our southern zones later Friday afternoon. Overnight lows range from the teens to lower 20s, and could rise overnight depending on how much cloud coverage advects across the region. Highs Friday range from near 40F for mid-Hudson Valley and southern portions of Litchfield to lower 30s across the Dacks and peaks of the southern Greens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An active weather pattern is on tap through mid-December as a northern stream trough continues to be enforced across the northeast CONUS.

To begin, a strong low pressure system will take shape across the Tennessee valley into the Carolinas Friday night and track northeastward as it deepens. This will result in a wet weather weekend. Precipitation is expected to spread into the forecast area late Friday, becoming widespread by daybreak Saturday. P-type may start out as a mix of sleet or snow in the higher terrain Friday night but should eventually change over to all rain during the day Saturday. Latest GEFS ensembles show that precipitable water values reach +2 to +3 S.D. above normal so expect rain to be moderate to occasionally heavy at times. Around an inch of precipitation is possible through Saturday evening. As this system lifts into Maine, the negatively tilted trough will cross through the area as well as a surface cold front. This will allow for precipitation to continue through at least Saturday night with some locations changing back over to snow. It appears that wrap around moisture with the trough axis will result in continued snow showers through Sunday for mainly the Dacks/southern Greens/Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys. Snow showers across the high terrain will transition to lake effect snow showers for a brief period Sunday night. Highs on Saturday should reach the 40s to low 50s, with lows generally in the 30s Saturday night. Highs on Sunday will be closer to seasonable, in the low 30s to low 40s.

High pressure builds into the region for Monday with morning lows starting out in the teens to mid 20s, warming into low 20s to mid 30s by the afternoon.

The next potential weather system moves into the region Monday night with a chance for mainly snow (with a mix of rain/snow in the mid- Hudson valley) through Tuesday.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A cold front will track through our region this evening and a few snow showers are possible around KALB through about 08Z. The snow shower activity should be quite light so just putting VCSH. Snow showers should stay south of KGFL and dissipate before getting to KPSF and KPOU.

VFR ceilings above 3000 feet and predominant visibilities above 6SM will prevail through this evening and into the early morning hours. Ceilings will break up toward daybreak and VFR conditions will prevail through the day Thursday.

South to southwest winds at 10 Kt or less this evening will shift to west behind the cold front and increase to 10 to 15 Kt with gusts to 25 Kt later this evening and into the early morning hours. West to northwest winds will diminish to less than 10 Kt by daybreak and continue light through most of Thursday. Winds shift to south and southwest through Thursday afternoon at 6 Kt or less.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Likely SHRA. RA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. As temperatures cool off tonight, runoff from the recent rainfall and snow melt should slow down. Any additional precipitation in the form of snow from early this morning for southern areas won't have any immediate impact on rivers and streams.

For the remainder of the work week, rivers and streams will slowly recede, although some rivers (such as the Housatonic River) may remain elevated. Another storm may bring more moderate to significant rain to the region for Friday into Saturday, which will cause rivers and streams to rise once again. Many rivers may approach bankfull levels, per the MMEFS GEFS, and some flooding will be possible, especially across western New England.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . BGM NEAR TERM . BGM/NAS SHORT TERM . BGM LONG TERM . SND/JLV AVIATION . NAS HYDROLOGY . Frugis/BGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 60 mi56 min WSW 5.1 31°F 1031 hPa18°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY4 mi3.6 hrsWNW 15 G 2510.00 miOvercast28°F14°F55%1027.4 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY14 mi35 minWNW 1410.00 miA Few Clouds26°F8°F46%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10------------------W10--W5W3------SW8W5S4W4W5W10
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1 day agoCalm----------------------SW3CalmW7NW13
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SW4W12CalmW6W6W6W12
2 days ago--------------------S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE5S6S12S6S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:57 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:31 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:14 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.92.23.23.84.13.72.71.710.5-0-012.74.155.55.34.43.12.11.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:49 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:21 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:06 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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01.12.43.33.94.13.62.61.610.4-0.10.11.32.94.35.15.55.24.22.91.91.10.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.