Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scotia, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 12:52PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scotia, NY
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location: 42.89, -74     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 221501
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1101 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area today, bringing isolated to
scattered showers. A wave of low pressure tracking along the
front will bring showers to areas mainly south of albany
tonight. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions are expected
for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Updated at 1045 am. Surface cold front appears to be sliding
southeast across the area late this morning and is currently
located between alb and pou. Dew points have fallen into the 50s
behind the front over much of central ny and this dryer air will
be filtering east this afternoon. A few showers or even an
isolated thunderstorms could still occur over the mid-hudson
valley eastward to northwest connecticut this afternoon, but
much of the area will remain dry. Afternoon temperatures will
range from the 80s in the hudson valley, to the 70s at higher
elevations. Previous discussion is below.

As of 630 am edt, areas of fog, some locally dense, continue
across much of the hudson river valley north of poughkeepsie, as
well as across the mohawk valley, ct river valley in SE vt, and
within the housatonic valley in the berkshires. The fog should
lift between 7 and 9 am. A special weather statement has been
issued to address the locally dense morning fog.

Meanwhile, the cold front currently extends across from the sw
adirondacks into central ny. Most of the showers thus far
associated with the front remain north of the local forecast
area, although an isolated shower could still occur across
extreme northern herkimer hamilton counties over the next 1-2
hours.

The cold front should continue slowly tracking south and east
across western and northern areas this morning, and areas south
and east of albany this afternoon. Instability will be limited,
with href forecast mean mu capes generally under 500 j kg,
except possibly reaching around 750 j kg across portions of the
mid hudson valley and litchfield county during this afternoon.

Expect isolated to scattered showers along or just ahead of the
front for most areas today, with some thunderstorms possible
across the mid hudson valley and NW ct during this afternoon.

Spc has shifted most of the previous marginal risk area for
severe thunderstorms south and east of the region, although it
does clip southern dutchess and litchfield counties, where an
isolated stronger thunderstorm can not be ruled out given mid
level wind fields of 35-40 kt.

Max temps should reach the lower mid 80s in many valley areas
today, with some upper 80s possible across the mid hudson valley
and lower elevations in NW ct where downsloping NW winds may
enhance warming potential.

Dewpoints should fall into the 50s for many areas by late
afternoon, except remaining in the 60s for the capital region
and points south and east.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
Tonight, the front should track southeast of the region early
tonight, however a wave of low pressure is expected to ripple
along the front in response to a sharpening shortwave tracking
southeast from the western great lakes, along with the right
entrance region of an upper level jet translating across ontario
and western quebec. Backing mid upper level flow should allow
clouds and showers to expand northeast into the SE catskills,
mid hudson valley southern taconics, NW ct and central southern
berkshires this evening and overnight. It is possible that the
northern edge of these showers expands as far north and west as
the i-90 i-88 corridors. Some pockets of moderate rain could
occur in southern areas. Meanwhile, northern areas should remain
clear to partly cloudy as high pressure builds in. Lows mainly
in the 50s to lower 60s, except for some 40s across the
southwest adirondacks.

Friday-Friday night, some lingering clouds and perhaps spotty
showers across southeast areas early in the morning, followed by
partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon. There is a low
probability that some light showers sprinkles could develop in
the afternoon as the main upper level trough cold pool passes
through, but will keep out mention at this time given forecast
moisture profiles suggesting a rather deep layer of dry mid
level air advecting into the region. It will be cooler and much
less humid, with highs mostly in the 70s for valley areas, and
60s higher terrain areas. Rather cool for Friday night with
clear to partly cloudy skies, with lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s, except some lower 40s across portions of the SW adirondacks
and southern vt.

Saturday-Saturday night, high pressure continues to build in
from the north, however some upper level energy may gradually
pass southward across the region later Saturday into Saturday
night. This may allow for some clouds to develop, and could even
see a couple of showers across mainly higher terrain areas
Saturday afternoon. Highs Saturday mainly in the 70s for
valleys, 60s higher elevations. Lows Saturday night in the 40s
and 50s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday, GFS and increasing amount of GEFS members coming in line
with the ECMWF in lingering a cutoff low over the region. Pwat will
be fairly low at less than an inch, but cannot rule out a few
diurnal showers with a 500 mb cold pocket overhead. Went with some
low chance pops mainly south of i-90.

Though upper lows can be stubborn, consensus is for the low to shift
northeastward and become replaced by a narrow ridge for Monday-
Tuesday, resulting in dry conditions. Temperatures Sunday-Tuesday
will likely be a bit on the cool side of normal with easterly flow
draining from high pressure over the canadian maritimes.

Indications are for the ridge to shift eastward by Tuesday
night Wednesday as a broad trough approaches from the western great
lakes. Return flow in advance of this feature should boost temps
back up near normal values, but showers may spread into the region
as the trough impinges.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
As of 1035z, fog and low stratus remain over all of the
terminals except for kpou. Seeing some clearing in the fog
upstream over the mohawk valley where winds have gone westerly.

Best estimate at this time for fog low clouds to dissipate is
between 12-14z. MainlyVFR conditions expected for the
remainder of the period. Some moisture will linger down by kpou
which should see a few late afternoon evening showers or perhaps
a rogue thunderstorm. A couple showers cannot be ruled out at
kpsf during the evening through the end of the TAF period. Kept
prevailingVFR in the tafs due to expected low coverage of
showers.

Calm to light southerly winds will become westerly during the
day today at 5 to 10 kt with a couple of gusts near 20 kt at
times primarily at kalb.

Outlook...

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A cold front will cross the area today, bringing isolated to
scattered showers. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across the mid hudson valley and NW ct. A wave of low pressure
tracking along the front will bring showers to areas mainly
south of albany tonight. Drier, cooler and less humid conditions
are expected for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds
into the region.

Rh values will decrease to minimum values of around 45 to 55
percent this afternoon, and increase to 85 to 100 percent
tonight with areas of dew formation likely. Rh should drop to
around 45-55 percent Friday afternoon.

South to southwest winds at around 5 mph will become west to
northwest and increase to 5 to 15 mph this afternoon, then
decrease to around 5 mph tonight.

Hydrology
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
today into tonight, mainly for areas south of albany. Most of
this activity will be light, but brief downpours will be
possible in any thunderstorms.

Dry conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.

Isolated showers will be possible Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd kl jpv
near term... Mse kl
short term... Kl
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Kl jpv
hydrology... Kl jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 60 mi69 min Calm 83°F 1011 hPa74°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Schenectady Airport, NY4 mi1.9 hrsWNW 715.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1012.2 hPa
Albany International Airport, NY14 mi48 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F61%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSCH

Wind History from SCH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S6S9
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NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----------------CalmCalmSW3W10
G15
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1 day agoCalm----CalmCalmCalmS4--CalmCalm------------------Calm--E3E3Calm
2 days agoW6W7W6W7--W6W5W5NW6NW5------------------NW8W5NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Troy, Hudson River, New York
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Troy
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:19 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:29 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:01 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.62.51.61.20.80.40.61.62.93.7443.42.31.20.60.3-0-00.92.43.74.44.6

Tide / Current Tables for Albany, New York
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Albany
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Thu -- 05:09 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:11 AM EDT     4.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EDT     4.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.31.51.10.70.40.71.833.843.93.22.11.10.50.2-0.10.11.12.73.94.54.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.