Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 12:33 AM   Moonset 8:54 AM

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LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 402 Am Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog early. Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Tuesday - Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers in the evening. Wednesday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Thursday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off buffalo is 47 degrees.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 291800 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 200 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
It will remain unseasonably mild and rather humid across the bulk of western New York today...while cooler more seasonable conditions will be found across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

As for the dynamics supporting the above...a strong mid level ridge will be centered directly over our region today. This will largely suppress any widespread shower activity over the western counties...
but a stalled frontal boundary over the Southern Tier could be enough to help focus some widely separated showers and thunderstorm activity over the Srn Tier and Upper Genesee valley within a diurnally destabilized airmass this afternoon.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to our northwest where showers and storms associated with the approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger convection
Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the lakes.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
While surface high pressure will lie across the region into Friday, the aforementioned low pressure will support a warm front to sweep north across the Great Lakes. While this frontal passage may bring a few showers to the region, the forecast area will primarily remain dry Thursday night through Friday.

As this front continues to exit northeast, its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east across the Great Lakes Friday night through Saturday night. There continues to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes Sunday, causing any lingering showers to gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions will be in place through the first half of tonight...although a few widely separated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the western Souther Tier and Upper Genesee valley before nightfall.

As we work through the overnight...a cold front will approach from Lower Michigan. Cigs will drop to IFR levels in advance of the front after 08z with showers becoming likely near and east of both lakes.

On Tuesday...a slow moving cold front will cross the forecast area.
This will result in fairly widespread showers and possibly thunderstorms with cigs generally at IFR levels.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Increasing northeast winds will result in choppy conditions along the central and western south shores of Lake Ontario today where Small Craft headlines are in place. Winds will diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few days.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043.

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