Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 4:45 AM   Moonset 6:38 PM

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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 905 Am Cdt Mon May 6 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening - .
Rest of today - East wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon, then backing northeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning. Tuesday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Tuesday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight veering west early in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight. Slight chance of showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 060916 CCA AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 416 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms remain likely Tuesday. A few storms could be strong to severe during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Small craft conditions are expected Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather continues into mid-week, with additional showers and storms possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

SHORT TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today through Tuesday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: GOES water vapor imagery places a pronounced upper level low over the Four Corners vicinity early this morning.
Wedged between the aforementioned upper low and shortwave ridging over the northern Mississippi Valley, an area of diffluent upper level flow has been analyzed over the Northern Plains vicinity.
Positioned beneath said upper level diffluence, well-defined lee troughing is apparent over the WY & MT Front Range. The Four Corners upper low is forecast to advance northeast toward the international border today, with attendant DPVA encouraging surface cyclogenesis along MT-ND-SD border vicinity this afternoon and evening. The surface low will linger over this general area through the duration of the short term period, undergoing the occlusion process along the international border Tuesday afternoon and evening. An attendant occluded front is forecast to extend southeast of this surface low, approaching southern Wisconsin from the southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening. Precise progress of the front will depend upon how quickly a round of showers and embedded thunderstorms passing through the region Tuesday AM vacates to the east. Despite the remaining uncertainties regarding precise occluded front positioning, at least scattered redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated on Tuesday afternoon given the presence of the boundary, mild low level temperatures along/behind it, and upper level diffluence lingering across the Western Great Lakes.
Some of these storms could become strong to severe, with trends to be closely monitored over the coming forecast cycles.

Today & Tonight: Pleasant conditions will continue locally, with mostly sunny skies promoting high temperatures in the low-mid 70s away from Lake Michigan. Conditions will turn unsettled to our south and west in the Plains, where an expansive line of scattered showers and storms will develop ahead of the ejecting Four Corners disturbance this afternoon. Much of this activity will persist into the overnight hours tonight, with the northern end moving into the mid-upper Mississippi Valley as it gradually weakens approaching daybreak Tuesday. Anticipate that some of this activity will begin to nudge into our southwestern zones prior to daybreak Tuesday, which has been accounted for with increasing precip probs primarily west of Madison following 1 AM Tuesday. Given that storms will be well into their weakening/decaying phase, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Tuesday: Supported by upper diffluence overspreading the western Great Lakes, the decaying showers/storms entering our southwestern zones prior to daybreak will continue to move east across the area during the morning hours. Given an abundance of cloud cover, poor mid-level lapse rates, and the early day timing, don't currently expect any of these storms to be strong/severe. Attention will then turn west/behind of the vacating morning activity during the afternoon hours, when scattered redevelopment of showers and storms is possible. Potential redevelopment will be facilitated by the arrival of the occluded front discussed above. Winds will turn out of the southwest along/behind the boundary, which will combine with breaks in the clouds to allow temperatures to recover into the lower 70s, particularly over south-central and southwestern zones where morning precip will vacate sooner. Convergence along the boundary, augmented by lingering upper level divergence, will likely provide sufficient lift for at least isolated redevelopment of showers & storms within this air mass on Tuesday afternoon. Given a plume of steep (7-8.5 degC/km) mid-level lapse rates moving in from the west, said redevelopment would occur in an environment conditionally favorable for large hail. Well-mixed boundary layers depicted in forecast soundings would support some potential for gusty winds as well. Thus can't rule out a few strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon. SPC has extended a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe thunderstorms into the region given this potential.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday night through Sunday:

Synopsis: Developing in the lee of the Rockies during the end of the short term period, an area of low pressure will migrate into the mid- Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, ultimately passing from Central IL to the Lake Erie vicinity Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Beneath a still unsettled upper pattern linked to the current disturbance over the Four Corners, the approach of the surface low will support additional periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. An isolated strong to severe storm can't be ruled out Wednesday afternoon/evening, particularly over southwestern and south-central Wisconsin. Winds will turn out of the north-northwest through the second half of the week as the aforementioned surface low vacates to the northeastern CONUS, bringing modestly cooler high temperatures from Thursday through the weekend. Mirroring the surface pattern, northwest flow will prevail in the mid-upper levels through the second half of this week into the weekend. Encouraged by perturbations meandering through the aforementioned upper flow pattern, additional periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday.

Wednesday: Encouraged by the approach of the surface low highlighted above, as well as lingering shortwaves pivoting overhead, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. While the surface low is currently forecast to remain to our south, elevated WAA ongoing north of the low will support increasing MUCAPE across the region, with the greatest readings currently progged near the state line in current guidance. Thus expect convective development to be elevated in nature, though mid-level lapse rates in the 7-7.5 degC/km range would support some hail potential in any storms developing during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the greatest risk focusing where elevated instability is maximized. Will monitor trends closely over the coming forecast cycles, as subtle changes in the track of the approaching surface low will carry appreciable implications on the local thermo & related storm potential.

Thursday: Additional periods of showers and storms are possible.
Don't expect severe weather in any of this activity at this time, but will monitor trends.

Quigley

AVIATION
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the period at all terminals. The current deck of SCT-BKN upper cloud coverage will pivot east into the Ohio Valley this morning, giving way to mostly clear skies through the daytime hours today. Winds will gradually pivot out of the east-southeast this afternoon as low pressure begins to develop in the Northern Plains. Speeds will increase moving into the overnight hours as the aforementioned low continues to strengthen.
Can't rule out LLWS between the 2500-5000 feet AGL layer during the overnight hours, particularly at the Lake Michigan aerodromes, though confidence was too low to justify inclusion in the 06/09Z updates. Will monitor trends over the coming cycles and make amendments if confidence increases.

Quigley

MARINE
Issued 409 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Currently light and variable surface flow will begin to increase out of the east today, ultimately shifting out of the southeast from tonight through Tuesday morning as a 982 mb low pressure center develops over the northern Great Plains. An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will approach from the west Tuesday morning, ultimately crossing the open waters during the afternoon hours. Said activity is not currently anticipated to be strong/severe.
Additional shower and storm activity can't be ruled out on Tuesday evening, though coverage will be more scattered compared to the afternoon round of activity. Any storms developing Tuesday evening would be capable of gusty winds and hail. Winds will turn out of the southwest Tuesday night as a 998 mb low pressure center moves from the open waters toward Lake Huron, prior to turning out of the northeast on Wednesday afternoon as a second area of 998 mb low pressure approaches from the central Great Plains. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible as the second area of low pressure approaches. Winds will turn out of the north through the end of the week as high pressure builds into the Great Plains.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645...7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday.

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