Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greendale, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240750 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 250 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SHORT TERM. (Issued 250 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Today through Friday:

Positive tilt mid level wave combined with weak waa/moist advection will bring chances of showers/isolated thunder to the area, mainly this afternoon into this evening. However, looking at the Bufkit soundings from the HRRR and NAM there is quite a bit of dry air through an appreciable depth. There is some elevated CAPE noted but an inversion around 7lk feet along with dry air is limiting much int he way of anything rooted from the surface. The meso progs continue the idea that portions of south central WI would have the best coverage of this activity with little in the southeast corner. This tied to potentially a little better low level convergence with weak trough/boundary extending east from northern Iowa. As the mid level wave shifts way this evening that should bring an end to any lingering shra/isold T. Southerly winds will ramp up on Friday with a reinforcing shot of unseasonable warmth into the area. Will likely see an onshore component evolve, but all in all plenty of sunshine with highs well into the 70s.

Collar

LONG TERM. (Issued 250 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Friday night through Wednesday:

This weekend will see a few shortwaves move across northern MN/WI before a stronger trough digs and amplifies Sunday night into Monday. The main synoptic forcing with each of these waves will be displaced to the north of the area but weak fronts associated with each system could provide enough focus for showers and storms. The first will move through Friday night into Saturday morning and could clip the northeastern half of the area with a few storms. Then as WAA strengthens Saturday we could see a few showers develop along the elevated warm front but these would dissipate quickly and push east leaving mostly sunny skies for the afternoon hours. Expect highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s for Saturday and with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 it will be the gasp of summer like weather. A stronger front will move through Saturday evening into Sunday morning and could bring a round of showers and storms to the area but again main forcing is north of the area. So, overall don't have the highest confidence in pops at this time and have kept them at slight chance to chance for the weekend. By the time the synoptic forcing starts to align over the area Sunday into Monday any frontal features will be well to the S/SE and with drier air filtering in any activity won't be very organized and just be mainly light on/off showers.

Temperatures stay near normal for Sunday with highs around 70. Things then begin to take a nose dive as a large amplified trough takes hold for much of the eastern US. Highs by Tue/Wed range from the low to mid 50s, which may be a bit of a shock to the system after longer stretch of quiet and warm weather. Various vorticity maximums moving through this larger scale trough will bring on/off showers through the week.

Stumpf

AVIATION. (Issued 250 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Patchy IFR vsbys early this morning with low lying/river valley fog. This will burn off. Spotty showers/isold tsra potential especially this afternoon and evening. Models have been consistent tin focusing best coverage of any shra activity more in SC WI this afternoon and evening. Overall, coverage not looking impressive at the moment. Otherwise quiet overnight with southerly winds on the uptick Friday as low pressure heads towards extreme northwest WI.

Collar

MARINE. (Issued 250 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020)

Weak low pressure trough extends into Wi today from Iowa. This combined with mid level energy may kick off a few shra/isold tsra across mainly the central and northern portions of the lake today. Greatest coverage likely this morning in the north where activity shifting east through far northern WI. Otherwise low pressure approaches northwest WI on Friday. This will tighten up the pressure gradient and lead to an uptick in the southerly wind regime. At this time it appears potential for any lake headlines, be it a small craft or gale, look low. However best shot at the moment would be a small craft for the nearshore waters but for now expected wind and wave action appears to come up a bit short.

Collar

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	5 mi	26 min	SW 6 G 7	73°F
45013	12 mi	46 min	S 7.8 G 9.7	69°F	62°F		1014.3 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	26 mi	76 min	W 5.1 G 7	67°F			1014.2 hPa (+0.3)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	31 mi	36 min	WSW 4.1 G 8	73°F			1014.6 hPa
45187	33 mi	36 min	SSW 3.9 G 5.8	70°F	64°F	1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL	41 mi	76 min	W 6 G 11

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL

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SW4 G8

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SW4 G7

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W3 G6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI	3 mi	24 min	WSW 8	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	74°F	59°F	60%	1013.5 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	13 mi	31 min	SW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	70°F	55°F	60%	1014.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	14 mi	31 min	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Clear	70°F	59°F	69%	1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI	15 mi	23 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	74°F	61°F	64%	1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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