Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greendale, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:05PM Saturday October 19, 2019 6:03 PM CDT (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 12:48PM Illumination 63% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 506 Pm Cdt Sat Oct 19 2019
Tonight..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then veering southeast late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing east late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Monday..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the morning, then veering south early in the afternoon becoming south 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ645 Expires:201910200400;;963156 FZUS53 KMKX 192206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 505 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-200400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greendale, WI
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location: 42.95, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 192031
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
331 pm cdt Sat oct 19 2019

Short term
Tonight through Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

A line of light to moderate showers is approaching the area this
afternoon. These are along a weak frontal boundary that will push
through this evening into the early overnight hours. With the main
upper level system lifting into central canada, there is limited
forcing, so not expecting too much in the way of rainfall with
these showers. Satellite imagery and models do suggest some weak
frontogenesis in the mid levels as the front shifts east this
afternoon. That could support a few heavier showers at times.

Once the front clears the area to the east, clear skies coupled
with light winds and the recent rainfall could allow for the
development of fog overnight. Patchy dense fog is possible in any
areas that receive more rainfall this evening. Will monitor
overnight the potential for any fog products.

Since it's a good setup for fog tonight, lows won't dip much
below the 40 degree mark. Low clouds and fog linger Sunday
morning, but should be able to clear out by mid-morning. High
pressure building across southern wisconsin will make for another
nice day on Sunday, with highs in the lower 60s with mostly sunny
skies.

Sunday night through Monday... Forecast confidence is high.

Models remain in decent agreement with trends during this period.

They bring deepening and then occluding low pressure from eastern
south dakota into the western lake superior area. A strong cold
front pushes through the area on Monday, with decent low level
frontogenesis response. There is a good shot of warm air moisture
advection ahead of the front later Sunday night into Monday
morning. Kept high pops for later Sunday night into Monday. Small
thunder chances were kept as well, with very weak CAPE ahead of
the front.

Southeast to south winds will become gusty later Sunday night
into Monday morning, and will become southwest and strengthen
after the frontal passage. Mild temperatures are expected, with
40s Sunday night and lower 60s Monday before the frontal passage.

Long term
Monday night through Wednesday night... Forecast confidence is
high.

Cutoff 500 mb low will become nearly vertically staked with the
surface low Monday night into Tuesday, before moving off to the
northeast of lake superior Tuesday night into Wednesday. Various
500 mb vorticity maxima rotating around the 500 mb low should
bring chances for showers at times Monday night into Tuesday.

Drier air moving into the region later Tuesday into Tuesday night
should bring an end to the shower activity.

Gusty southwest winds will become west later Monday night into
Tuesday, remaining gusty Tuesday night before slowly weakening
Wednesday. Gusts of 28 to 32 knots seem reasonable for Tuesday,
when the strongest gusts will occur. These winds will bring colder
temperatures to the area, with highs generally in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, and lows in the 30s.

Models are trying to bring a weak surface low and cold front east
through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with a
500 mb vorticity maximum trailing it. These features may bring a
few showers to the area during this time.

Thursday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is moderate.

More uncertainty in this period, though models generally show a
broad 500 mb trough axis slowly moving east through the region. It
appears that strong low pressure will remain southeast of the
region Thursday night into Friday night per the gfs, with the
ecmwf delaying this low track until Saturday. For now, left pops
and temperatures with the blended models.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)
Light to moderate showers moving across southern wi this afternoon
will lower CIGS down towards MVFR with bases as low as
1,500-2,000ft this evening. CIGS briefly improve after 03z but fog
is forecast to develop between 05-09z tonight with some locally
dense fog possible. Winds stay out of the S SW ahead of the
showers then switch to W NW and become light and variable
overnight. High pressure moving in on Sunday will keep skiesVFR
and winds light and variable.

Marine
Gusty southerly winds continue across the lake this afternoon,
leading to higher waves for the northern half of the lake. Webcams
suggested some higher waves continue from port washington
northward, so will leave the small craft advisory going until 7
pm this evening. Winds and waves taper off tonight as high
pressure builds into the region.

A strong system nears the area Sunday night, with winds
increasing out of the southeast. Winds could approach gale force
Monday afternoon ahead of the system for the open waters. Small
craft advisory conditions will be met Monday through Tuesday
night. Winds switch to the west on Tuesday and winds will again be
near gale force. Winds begin to diminish some on Wednesday, but
still remain gusty.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643.

Tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Stumpf
Sunday night through Saturday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 5 mi24 min SSE 6 G 7 58°F
45013 12 mi184 min SSE 14 G 18 51°F 47°F4 ft1006.7 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 26 mi64 min S 11 G 13 55°F 1006.8 hPa (+0.0)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 31 mi84 min S 5.1 G 8 51°F 1008.1 hPa
45186 41 mi24 min S 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 50°F2 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI3 mi72 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast59°F46°F62%1006.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi79 minSE 410.00 miClear61°F42°F52%1006.8 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI14 mi79 minW 610.00 miClear61°F44°F55%1006.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI15 mi71 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F45°F64%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE8S7S7S7S6S4S6S4S6S5S5S9S12S15
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1 day agoE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE3S6S12
G16
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G19
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2 days agoW5NW7NW7NW6NW6NW6NW5NW4NW4W7NW5NW6NW6NW5NW4NW9NW6N6N6NW5NW6NW5E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.