Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, NH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:56PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:17 PM EDT (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:26PMMoonset 12:31PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 116 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Scattered showers.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Thu night through Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure remains south of the waters through midweek. A cold front will cross the waters late Thursday into Friday morning bringing scattered showers and tstms. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, NH
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location: 42.99, -71.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 101430 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1030 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure offshore to the south will bring a flow of hot and humid air into Southern New England today through Wednesday. Pop up showers and storms possible today and Tuesday, though most locations will remain dry. Increasing chances for showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. Seasonable temperatures, dry conditions and much lower humidity levels return Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

10 AM Update .

Bumped up dew points and temperatures across the region. Forecast was a tad bit too low compared to observations. Upped the temperatures to the 90th percentile of guidance and dew points to roughly the 85th percentile (looked good in comparison to the current obs). Results in heat indices in getting into the mid to upper 90s.

On top of this increased the wind speed and gusts along the south coast toward the HRRRE as it has done well with the sea breeze the past couple of days. Will need too keep an eye on the breeze as it advances north/northwestward as it may be a focal point for convection developing this afternoon as indicated by the last few runs of the HRRR.

7 AM Update:

Heat Advisory still remains valid with no changes to those headlines. However did make a few adjustments to the forecast per trends and latest guidance.

First was to increase sky cover a bit and add patchy fog to parts of the interior. Nighttime microphysics RGB imagery and METARs showing that pooling moisture in light/calm winds has generated a larger covg of stratus and mist. Should be short lived though (thru mid morning) as winds pick up and strong sunshine erodes any fog and/or low stratus.

Next was to increase PoPs a bit after 17z with mention of isolated to scattered TSRA. Likely to be under subsidence for the morning/early-aftn hrs with shortwave ridging in place. However already a few showers popping up in west-central NY on the western end of the shortwave ridge axis. It's definitely a weakly-forced situation today which reduces forecast confidence a bit. But tough to ignore signal in past couple HRRR runs, the NSSL WRF and NAM-3km in depicting scattered storms off the Berkshires and Catskills in NY moving SE into northern CT/central MA into northern RI, with more isolated coverage possible on sea- breezes. CAPEs look fairly low, but given the strong heating expected today, it's possible a stronger storm could produce locally gusty winds. Too remote a chance to include gusty wind wording in the grids but won't totally waive off the need for an SPS or two if storms can get going today. Timing looks to be after 17z until sunset.

Should be even warmer than yesterday areawide. Boston again runs the risk of seeing a sea-breeze which could keep temps from rising too fast, but should again reach the 90 degree mark today . either if the sea breeze stays just offshore or once the winds flip back to synoptic SW late in the day. If Windsor Locks reaches 90 degrees or warmer today, it'd be the 3rd straight day of 90+ highs, making it a "heat wave" for BDL.

Previous discussion .

High pressure across the Southeast USA and West Atlantic ocean brings southwest winds at all levels to Southern New England. This will mean a warming trend surface and aloft. Daytime heating will cause a mixed layer to at least 850-mb and possibly to 800-mb. The mixing will tap temps equiv to 17-18C at 850-mb, supporting max sfc temps of 90 to 95. That will be the target range of max temps. Southwest winds will be onshore along the South Coast, keeping max temps a few degrees cooler . generally in the 80s.

One concern for the afternoon is convection. Widely scattered convection fired yesterday. Conditions are similar today, with a moist layer in the upper part of the mixing and dry air at mid- levels. PW values between 1 inch and 1.4 inches is not impressive for the summer, but may be enough to support a shower. CAPE, per the GFS, may reach 500-700 J/Kg and possibly a little higher. LI values will be near minus 3 Convective models are so-so. two show no development, another two show showers in CT. The forecast will continue to advertise widely scattered showers/storms. Probability remains low, about 15-24 pct, and subsidence from the ridge suggests a fair amount of sunshine.

Second concern is the heat. Dew points are expected to be 68 to 72, which combined with the expected temperatures will bring heat index values in the low to mid 90s, with a broad area from the CT Valley through Nrn RI into Eastern MA showing mid 90s. With conditions Tuesday expected to be warmer, two-day heat advisory conditions still look on target. The Heat Advisory starting today will continue.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Tonight .

Any showers/storms dissipate in the evening with the loss of heating. Expect rain-free weather but with continued high humidity with dew points around 70. The high dew points will support fog formation mainly along the South Coast. Min temps will be 68 to 73.

Tuesday .

Repeat performance on Tuesday, with lots of solar heating causing mixing to between 800-850 mb. Temps at that level will be a little higher than today, about 19-20C, which will support max sfc temps in the mid 90s. Dew points will continue in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with heat index values inland in the mid to upper 90s. The Heat Advisory continues through the day.

There will be another moist layer in the upper part of the mixed layer, and similar instability. The forecast will again feature widely scattered showers/storms, mostly across the interior and North Shore.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Highlights .

* Very warm with high humidity levels leads to continued elevated heat indices on Wed.

* Slow-moving front Wed into Thurs brings solid chances for showers and storms. While not everywhere gets wet, localized downpours possible.

* Seasonable temps with much lower humidity levels return Fri into the weekend.

Details .

Tuesday Night through Thursday:

Will still be contending with elevated heat indices at least on Wed. By Wed and Thurs, a slow-moving cool front acting on anomalously- high PWAT air will favor solid chances for showers and t-storms, ones which could bring localized downpours.

The cool front will still be making its way across eastern New York by Tues night into early Wed, with a continued SW feed of moisture leading to a very warm and muggy night. There will be more in the way of clouds into Wed as the cool front makes its way into the Berkshires. But the combination of temps in the mid 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s should still produce heat indices in the mid/upper 90s on Wed along and south of the Mass Pike (excluding the South Coast/Cape and Islands). It's possible the existing Heat Advisory may need to be extended into Wed in later updates, but will wait another cycle of model runs before making that determination. The cool front will be more or less bisecting Southern New England early on Thurs, and while it will still be warm and muggy south of the boundary (mainly our CT, RI and SE MA areas), lower high temps and prospects for showers/storms should permit sub- Advisory heat indices.

While not everyone gets wet, given good consistency have raised PoPs Wed into Thurs as high as lower-Likely (about 60%). On Wed, best chances for rains are mainly north and west of the Mass Pike but could extend as far south as I-95. The front will continue to provide enough lift to keep showers and/or storms going and/or re-developing into Wed evening for most of the area. By Thurs, best chances for rains become more focused in CT eastward into SE MA and the Cape and Islands, with lesser PoPs north of the MA/RI/CT border. Model soundings each day don't reveal much instability (tall, skinny CAPE profiles) and flow aloft is weak. Localized downpours look to be more the threat versus severe, particularly given deep warm-cloud depths between 12-13 kft offer a signal for efficient downpours, PWAT values ~2", and indications for re-developing storms along a slowing front. Still unclear at this point if and which areas would be of greater concern for hydro. Localized issues could pop up in urban areas, other areas possible but TBD depending on prior day(s) rain. Many could use the rain, but just not all at once or in the same areas.

Thursday Night into Friday:

Recent trends in ECMWF/GFS guidance indicate the front will have pushed far enough south Thursday night to allow for drier conditions to develop, though dissipating showers should be the trend thru midnight across CT, southern RI into the South Coast/Cape and adjacent waters. By Friday, northwesterly 500 mb flow should keep the effective frontal position near Long Island, with a surface high building into ME and allowing for a period of cooler, much drier and more stable onshore flow to begin. May be some spotty light showers on the western periphery of the ridge in the lee of the Litchfield Hills and into the Berkshires but not a washout.

Highs Friday in the low to mid 80s with more comfortable humidity levels (dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s). A welcomed break from the heat and humidity from earlier in the workweek!

The Weekend into Monday:

Broad high pressure over eastern Maine will ridge southward bringing 850 mb temps in the low-teens (+11 to +13C range) to Southern New England, with an onshore NE/E flow for at least a part of the weekend. Should actually lead to a fairly nice weekend with partly to mostly sunny conditions, low to mid 80s highs and low humidity levels, though may have greater cloud cover across southwestern areas.

Uncertainty becomes quite large moving into Sunday and Monday. GFS shows a low developing on the stalled front to our south, which returns back northward and delivers what would verbatim be a soaking rain to much of the region Sunday into part of Mon. ECMWF on the other hand maintains sfc ridging and tranquil conditions until at least Mon night/Tues. Obviously that's quite a spread in outcomes and will stick with NBM guidance until there's better agreement.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today: High confidence.

Pockets of IFR/LIFR stratus/mist affecting some TAFs this morning to erode in short order (by 13z). VFR through 18z, then generally VFR but possible iso/widely sct TSRA, best chance BAF- ORH-BDL. Winds mainly S/SW 4-8 kt. BOS should again get into a sea-breeze SE around 16z.

Monday Night . High confidence

VFR with light SW winds. Stratus and fog developing across the south coast.

Tuesday . High confidence

VFR with light SW winds. Isolated shower/storm possible across the interior.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Boston winds forecast from the SW. Potential for sea breeze development is marginal but not impossible. The forecast currently favors a turn from the SSW, far short of a sea breeze. But this potential will need to be monitored.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE.

10 AM Update .

Increased southwest winds speeds and gusts. Could have borderline Small Craft Advisory gusts (approaching 25 kts) across Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound and Nantucket Sound this afternoon. Rest of the forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion .

High pressure remains offshore. Expecting generally quiet weather, although widely scattered showers/storms forming over land may move off the coast this afternoon.

Stratus/fog may develop tonight, especially along the South Coast. Visibility may reach 1-3 nm.

Tuesday will be similar to today, with quiet weather except for the potential of widely scattered afternoon showers/storms.

Waves at or below 4 feet. Winds out of the SW at 10-15 kts with gusts around 15-20 kts.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/ .

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MAZ003>007-010>018- 026. RI . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for RIZ001>004. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/BL/Loconto NEAR TERM . WTB/BL/Loconto SHORT TERM . WTB LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . WTB/Loconto MARINE . WTB/BL/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 30 mi92 min WNW 2.9 88°F 1015 hPa71°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi77 min SSE 15 G 16 78°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.6)71°F
44073 45 mi73 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 66°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 47 mi47 min 65°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 49 mi47 min S 5.1 G 8 66°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manchester Airport, NH4 mi24 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F64°F42%1014.7 hPa
Nashua - Boire Field Airport, NH16 mi21 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F66°F44%1014.9 hPa
Concord Municipal Airport, NH16 mi26 minW 9 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds91°F61°F37%1014.3 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA23 mi23 minSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy91°F66°F44%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMHT

Wind History from MHT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6SW10W9SW105SW3SW3S3CalmS3S4S4CalmS4S4S33SW35SW53W463
1 day ago5CalmSW3SE5S7SE8S6S4SE4S4SW3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4CalmSW8SW11
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2 days ago3SE8SE7SE7SE7SE6S4CalmSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4W3NW4NE6N4Calm4

Tide / Current Tables for Squamscott River RR. Bridge, New Hampshire
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Squamscott River RR. Bridge
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Mon -- 12:45 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     6.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.111.52.74.25.66.36.45.94.83.52.21.311.32.33.75.26.26.66.35.44.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Newburyport, Merrimack River, Massachusetts (2)
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Newburyport
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     7.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.54.267.17.46.964.63.11.81.21.223.65.56.97.57.36.65.33.92.51.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.