Monday, June1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:26PM Monday June 1, 2020 8:49 PM CDT (01:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 706 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 am cdt Tuesday...
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the morning, then backing southwest in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ645 Expires:202006020400;;608308 FZUS53 KMKX 020006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-020400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 020020 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

UPDATE. The warm front has advanced to central WI with low level warm, moist advection expected to continue tnt. Thus low temps are forecast to only drop into the middle to upper 60s.

The cold front currently over the Dakotas will reach srn MN and west central WI for late Tue afternoon, while warm advection to the south will make for a strong thermal ridge over srn WI. High temps around 90F looks good given the 90s in the warm sector today and expected 925 mb temps of 26C for Tue afternoon. As the thermal ridge slowly shifts south late Tue aft-nt, a severe cluster or two will likely form along or near the cold front over srn MN and west central WI and move esewd. This will mostly likely affect much of srn WI with damaging winds the main concern.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS). The main aviation concern for tnt is LLWS via a swly 45-50 kt low level jet. Otherwise VFR conditions tnt- Tue. A line of tstorms with gusty winds will then affect srn WI for Tue eve and possibly into the overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Tuesday Night . Forecast Confidence: Medium.

Scattered showers will continue to linger in the east this afternoon as the surge of warm air advection and moisture moves through southern Wisconsin. These rain showers will remain very light as the initial forcing for these showers has weakened throughout the day. There will be a break in the cloud cover this evening through the overnight hours tonight.

A very warm airmass will be moving into the region. Guidance has come into further agreement with high temperatures around 90 degrees across southern Wisconsin. Dry conditions and mostly clear skies will persist throughout the afternoon hours. The cloud cover will return Tuesday evening, as a cold front approaches the state. The cold front will be moving southeast through southern Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. CAMs suggest developing thunderstorms over south central Minnesota. This complex of thunderstorms are expected to move east southeast through the area from the evening hours through the overnight hours Tuesday.

SPC has central Wisconsin in an enhanced risk and a slight risk for the rest of southern Wisconsin for severe storms Tuesday night. There is moderate CAPE and deep layer bulk shear available for severe storms, though a cap exists during the evening hours. The forcing is expected to be strong enough to support storms that are moving through the area. The main hazard concerns are damaging winds, and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches or less. With guidance suggesting lower precipitable water values and the rather progressive outflow driven system, significant flooding is not anticipated.

LONG TERM .

Forecast confidence is Medium.

The middle CONUS ridge flattens to zonal flow Wednesday through Friday, with an amplified upper level pattern evolving over the weekend into early next week.

Will maintain lingering low chance PoPs for early Wednesday. The synoptic boundary is a little slow to clear, however convective outflow may end up being the effective front and focus for showers heading into Wednesday. Will remove PoPs with later forecasts if this looks to be reality.

Honing in on preferred periods for rain chances is the biggest challenge of this forecast. Signals are for a ripple or two to pass through zonal flow during the later half of the week, with higher PoPs focused on later Thursday into Friday morning. As the ridge amplifies, potential MCS activity will be in play, but timing is greatly in question.

Bottom line expect at to above normal temperatures. Periodic bouts of showers/storms. No real wash out periods indicated thus far.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS) .

Conditions are expected to be predominately VFR today and tonight. There will be a chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon, along with breezy southerly winds. Mainly dry weather is expected for tonight into Tuesday, with a chance for showers and storms returning Tuesday evening. Winds aloft look just strong enough for some low level wind shear this evening into tonight.

MARINE .

The high pressure currently over the Ohio River Valley will continue to head southeast today ahead of an approaching low pressure. There are some rain showers that will be moving across the lake this afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well. The low will be passing by to the north of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday. Gusty southerly winds are expected ahead of the low this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1 PM CDT this afternoon until 1 AM CDT tonight.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM CDT this evening for WIZ052.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Update . Gehring Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine . Patterson Tuesday Night through Monday . Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 3 mi39 min SSW 7 G 11 74°F
45013 5 mi49 min S 9.7 G 12 56°F 49°F3 ft1014.4 hPa (-1.6)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi69 min S 7 G 9.9 58°F 1014.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi49 min SSW 13 G 19 75°F 1013.9 hPa (-2.0)
45187 38 mi29 min SSW 9.7 G 12 58°F 50°F1 ft
45186 47 mi29 min ENE 9.7 G 14 63°F 53°F2 ft

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi57 minSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds74°F55°F52%1013.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi64 minSW 1210.00 miClear73°F50°F44%1014.2 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi64 minSSW 1010.00 miClear72°F53°F53%1014.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi56 minSSE 510.00 miFair69°F54°F59%1014.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S5S5SE4CalmS4S4S4S6SW8S11SW12S11S8S12SW16
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1 day agoNE7NE8N7NE11NE10
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2 days agoNW8NW8NW4NW6NW5N7NW6W5W3W3NW5NW5NW11NW7NW11NW12
G18
NE8E10E7E10E10E11NE8NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.