Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shorewood, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:18PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:22 PM CST (21:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:54PMMoonset 8:32AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ645 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- 305 Pm Cst Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm cst this evening...
Through early evening..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain in the evening. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest early in the afternoon, then backing south late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Slight chance of snow through around midnight. Chance of drizzle through the night. Chance of snow and light freezing drizzle after midnight. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Chance of rain and snow. Waves around 1 foot. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ645 Expires:201912131000;;254549 FZUS53 KMKX 122106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ645-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shorewood, WI
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location: 43.04, -87.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 121723 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

UPDATE.

Overall, things are progressing as expected. The bulk of the precip with the low tracking from north central Iowa toward Green Bay today will be well north of the forecast area. I trimmed snow amounts across the north. There wasn't much to trim to begin with, so impact is still expected to be quite limited.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS).

Low pressure tracking from north central Iowa to Green Bay today will feature a trailing cold front that will reach KMSN later this evening and the southeast WI TAF sites between 09-11z Friday. MVFR CIGS will reach KMSN by about 19z this afternoon, but will stall as they drift toward the southeast. The SE TAF sites may not get into the MVFR conditions until after 07-09z Friday. IFR CIGS are expected to reach KMSN as the front pushes through there later this evening. Warming temperatures should keep the threat of snow or freezing precipitation at a minimum at the southern WI TAF sites. The strong and gusty southerly winds will diminish this evening as the trough moves in and the pressure gradient relaxes.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 840 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019)

UPDATE .

An impressive and compact mid level short wave located west of Minneapolis will continue to track east toward Green Bay today. Most of the precip will stay north of the forecast area, but our northern areas will get swiped by a an inch or so of snow. There are some precip type questions that get introduced as temps begin to warm in the southerly flow. Overall, the forecast remains on track with no changes at this time.

MARINE .

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect today until mid evening for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. The Gale Warning remains in effect for all but the far northern portions of the open waters of Lake Michigan until mid evening.

A moderately strong surface low will track from western Iowa to Green Bay today. Gusty southeast to south winds will become southwest tonight. Frequent gusts to 30 knots are expected over the nearshore waters, with gusts to 40 knots over all but the far northern open waters. Waves are expected to build during this period, before gradually subsiding later tonight into Friday.

Lighter winds are expected later tonight into Friday. Gusty northwest winds are expected Saturday into Sunday, with frequent gusts to 30 knots possible Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 525 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019)

UPDATE .

The forecast looks on track for today. No changes are needed at this time.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

Light southeast winds early this morning will become south to southwest and become gusty by later this morning into this afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected for a time this morning into early this afternoon at the terminals, with southwest winds to 45 knots at 2000 feet.

A period of light snow should move across areas north of Madison and Milwaukee later this morning into middle to late afternoon. Some rain may mix in this afternoon. At and south of the terminals, any rain/snow mix should change to mainly drizzle by early this afternoon. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations should occur well north of Madison and Milwaukee, with the main terminals seeing little to no snow accumulations.

There is the chance for drizzle to become light freezing drizzle this evening and overnight, as temperatures slowly fall below freezing. This may cause some slick spots on runways. Some fog may occur as well, as winds weaken. Moderate confidence in the freezing drizzle at this time, but something to watch for.

Ceilings should drop to MVFR/IFR with the light snow/mix later this morning into this afternoon. Visibility values should be IFR north of the terminals, with VFR/MVFR to the south. Look for IFR/MVFR ceilings to linger tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 410 AM CST THU DEC 12 2019)

SHORT TERM .

TODAY AND TONIGHT - Forecast Confidence . Medium.

Still expecting an area of light snow to spread east across the northern half of the area later this morning into this afternoon. This is being driven by warm air advection/low level jet nose interaction this morning, with some low level frontogenesis and differential CVA from nearby passing 500 mb vorticity maximum this afternoon. The best upward vertical motion looks to be in northern parts of the area, and to the north of there.

The NAM looks too far north with its surface low track today, so sided with the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian track, which is from southwest through east central Wisconsin. Enough warm air with gusty south/southwest winds should push north into the area by this afternoon to bring a rain/snow mix in parts of the north half of the area. The south should see any light snow or rain/snow mix change to mainly light drizzle by the afternoon, with milder temperature profiles and weaker upward vertical motion.

Kept snow amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range in the far north and northwest parts of the area, with amounts under an inch to the south of there. This was between the 25th and 50th percentiles per Model Certainty, with the 75th percentile only a few tenths of an inch higher. This seemed reasonable for now, given the mixy nature of the precipitation. The far south and southeast should not see much if any snowfall. The tail end of this activity may affect the late afternoon/evening commute.

The main area of precipitation should move off to the east later this afternoon, though drizzle/light freezing drizzle may linger into this evening and perhaps overnight. This is due to a weak surface trough moving east through the area, with a decent amount of moisture trapped beneath the low level inversion. Lighter winds may also allow for some fog to develop.

There is the possibility of some light glazing to occur on roads that are untreated or below freezing later this afternoon and tonight. Also, the snow may cause some impacts mainly this afternoon and early evening. For now, held off on a Winter Weather Advisory for northern parts of the area. The freezing drizzle/glazing potential will need to be monitored for later today into tonight.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence . Medium.

Lingering low level moisture and weak winds will likely result in clouds persisting on Friday. Deeper moisture will return later Friday into Friday night ahead of the next in a series of mid-level short wave trofs moving across the upper midwest. This may bring a period of light rain or snow to the area Friday evening. Mid-levels dry out overnight while low level trof continues to move slowly across the area. So wl continue mention of freezing drizzle Friday night. Colder air and deeper moisture returns on Saturday ahead of the next weak wave which may bring a period of light snow back to the area. Any snowfall would remain light, less than an inch.

LONG TERM .

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence . low to Medium.

Will continue small pops across mainly the eastern CWA Saturday night as low pressure trof rotates around strong low pressure moving through the northeast CONUS into eastern Canada. Then a period of dry and colder weather returns for Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure moves through the region. The extended focus remains in developing low pressure in the southern Plains Sunday night into Monday along a tight low level thermal gradient. 00Z.12 deterministic GFS remains extended guidance outlier with less split flow across the Midwest, and taking the southern Plains system on a more northeast track toward the central Great Lakes later Monday and Monday night. This latest track takes the surface low across the OH valley with a large precipitation shield associated with the deepening mid-level system extended well northwest into southern WI. The earlier GFS ensemble guidance has the largest area of uncertainty with this system cross northern IL/southern WI Mon aftn/eve. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF and GEM show a stronger split flow across the region with the more zonal, faster flow across the upper midwest winning out, and keeping this system to the south and east of the area. WPC blended fields leaning toward drier solution for our area. Several of the ECMWF ensemble members do show a farther north track. With the possibility of the split flow becoming more in phase as long-wave troffing develops in the central CONUS, can not rule out the possibility for a wetter GFS solution actually verifying. For now wl keep small chances going during the Monday/Monday night period with dry conditions returning into mid- week.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATE) .

Light southeast winds early this morning will become south to southwest and become gusty by later this morning into this afternoon. Low level wind shear is expected for a time this morning at Madison and possibly the eastern terminals, with southwest winds of 40 to 45 knots at 2000 feet.

A period of light snow should move across areas north of Madison and Milwaukee later this morning into middle to late afternoon. Some rain may mix in this afternoon. At and south of the terminals, any rain/snow mix should change to mainly drizzle by early this afternoon. 1 to 2 inch snow accumulations should occur well north of Madison and Milwaukee, with the main terminals seeing little to no snow accumulations.

There is the chance for drizzle to become light freezing drizzle this evening and overnight, as temperatures slowly fall below freezing. This may cause some slick spots on runways. Some fog may occur as well, as winds weaken. Moderate confidence in the freezing drizzle at this time, but something to watch for.

Ceilings should drop to MVFR/IFR with the light snow/mix later this morning into this afternoon. Visibility values should be IFR north of the terminals, with VFR/MVFR to the south. Look for IFR/MVFR ceilings to linger tonight.

MARINE .

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect today until middle evening for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. The Gale Warning remains in effect for all but the far northern portions of the open waters of Lake Michigan from middle morning until middle evening.

Gusty southeast to south winds today will become southwest tonight. Frequent gusts to 30 knots are expected over the nearshore waters, with gusts to 40 knots over all but the far northern open waters. Waves are expected to build during this period, before gradually subsiding later tonight into Friday.

Lighter winds are expected later tonight into Friday. Gusty northwest winds are expected Saturday into Sunday, with frequent gusts to 30 knots possible Saturday night into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ080-364-366-563- 565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.



Update . Davis Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Davis Friday THROUGH Wednesday . mbK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 3 mi33 min SSW 11 G 16 42°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 24 mi43 min WSW 8.9 G 16 40°F 1017.6 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 32 mi23 min SSW 13 G 17 44°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI6 mi91 minSSW 1010.00 miLight Rain42°F25°F51%1017.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI10 mi38 minSW 9 G 177.00 miOvercast39°F24°F56%1016.9 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI16 mi98 minSW 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast37°F24°F60%1016.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi90 minSSW 13 G 2110.00 miOvercast43°F25°F49%1018.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKE

Wind History from MKE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W7W6CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE3SE3SE3S5S5S8SE12SE14S14
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1 day agoW10W9W9
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W6W12
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2 days agoW11W10W19W22
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W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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