Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Milwaukee, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday July 29, 2021 2:54 AM CDT (07:54 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 11:36AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 107 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
.severe Thunderstorm watch 399 in effect until 2 am cdt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms after midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet early in the morning.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots veering northeast late in the morning, then easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon veering east late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:202107290900;;626518 FZUS53 KMKX 290607 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 107 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-290900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milwaukee, WI
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location: 43.06, -87.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 290150 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 850 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Storms have started over northern WI/central MN this evening along the warm front and weak lake breeze boundary off of Lake Superior. The 00z MPX sounding is quite unstable with 4,000-6,000 J/kg much of this is due to steeper mid/upper level lapse rates. The surface lapse rates remain weak due to remnant cloud cover and smoke layer which likely limited some heating/mixing this afternoon. But as the LLJ gets going and bulk shear ramps up expect any storms to quickly become severe. Hodographs showed strong turning in the low levels with the MPX sounding and this is also evident in the VWP hodograph from the ARX radar. As the LLJ intensifies tonight we can potentially expect a similar looking hodograph for our area ahead of the storms arriving.

While all modes of severe are possible as storms congeal into a line and drop south, the greatest threat is going to be with strong damaging winds of 70 to 90+ mph. In addition to that if we do end up with a similar looking hodograph we could see a few embedded tornadoes in the line. The threat area is for the entire area especially since storms are developing a little further to the west than forecast.

Made some minor tweaks to the timing of storms but otherwise the forecast is in good shape.

Stumpf

SHORT TERM. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Tonight:

Main focus continues to be on anticipated severe convective system rolling through here later this evening. Think as storms transition from more discrete/supercellular to our north and congeal to a line structure closer to central WI that the line will really gain speed and roll through southern WI, esp EC and SE WI in fairly short order. Potential is fairly high this will bow out with winds in excess of 70 and perhaps a few QLCS type tornadoes as well. So the heightened moderate from SPC looks on track. Decent upper level jet divergence, a mid level shortwave and plenty of higher CAPE values into the late evening/early overnight, the environment appears primed to support the arriving storms.

Thursday through Thursday night:

Cool advection and high pressure take hold. Winds will be predominantly from the north and northeast. Expecting some lower cloud cover to linger especially for the morning but with a low level thermal trough the clouds may be a bit more stubborn.

LONG TERM. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Friday through Friday night:

High pressure remains in control into Friday though shifts off to the southeast and begins a waa regime.

Saturday through Saturday night:

A northwest mid level flow will drop in a some mid level energy with an associated low pressure system and cold front. Progs are in pretty good agreement in developing some shra/tsra with these features that could linger into the evening hours.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will largely dominate this period. There is some hint of some diurnal activity with any mid level troughing that may swing through, especially Monday into Monday evening. So some precip potential may need to be added to the forecast at some point. For now will stick with the blended guid and leave this mention out for now.

AVIATION. (Issued 849 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

Initially VFR conditions are forecast this evening but a strong line of thunderstorms is expected to drop south out of north- central WI. These will bring strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and IFR/MVFR cigs. Once storms move through expect some improvement in cigs/vsbys through the morning as drier air starts to filter in from the north. A few areas of MVFR cigs are possible Thursday afternoon for locations closer to the lake as a front rolls down Lake Michigan.

Stumpf

MARINE. (Issued 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021)

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to track across northern Wisconsin late this afternoon and then drop into central and southern Wisconsin and Lake Michigan this evening. It should exit southern Lake Michigan by 4 AM.

Persistent northerly winds on Thursday will build higher waves over the south half of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon through Friday.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 6 mi45 min W 13 G 18 77°F
45013 7 mi55 min WSW 18 G 27 80°F 73°F1 ft1013.9 hPa (+0.8)
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 23 mi75 min WSW 19 G 27 77°F 1011.5 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 34 mi55 min WSW 7 G 9.9 81°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.0)
45187 41 mi25 min 72°F 73°F1 ft
45186 49 mi25 min 21 G 39 78°F 74°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 49 mi115 min WSW 4.1 G 6 81°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI6 mi60 minWSW 9 G 337.00 miLight Rain72°F63°F73%1014.6 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI8 mi63 minWNW 77.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain80°F76°F87%1013.8 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI13 mi60 minENE 12 G 271.75 miHeavy Rain66°F64°F94%1014.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI22 mi62 minW 56.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain Fog/Mist79°F77°F94%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE4CalmE3SE4W4W5W7E5E7E7E7E6E6SE4SE5S3S5S4SW4S3NW5S13
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1 day agoN9NW3W3N10N4E4W7SW15
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E6NE5NE5E4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5W5W8W7W10W11
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W10W10W9W8W6SW5CalmSW3SW4SW4SW6W9W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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