Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Minoa, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 4:32PM Monday December 16, 2019 5:52 AM EST (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:23PMMoonset 11:12AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 331 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots or less. Scattered snow showers early, then scattered flurries this morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Snow. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 9 to 12 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201912161600;;862574 FZUS51 KBUF 160838 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-161600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minoa, NY
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location: 43.07, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 161002 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 502 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. A round of light snow will move through Northeast PA this morning and midday. A more substantial low pressure system will then bring snow and a wintry mix to the area this evening into Tuesday as it slides through the Mid-Atlantic region. Then, turning much colder with numerous snow showers and possible squalls midweek as an arctic cold front moves through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. 400 AM Update .

Confidence increasing that an impactful winter storm will bring snow and/or a wintry mix to the entire area this evening through Tuesday. Winter weather advisories have been issued for almost the entire CWA (except northern Oneida) to account for this expected winter weather. The morning commute will likely be impacted, with possible snow covered and icy roads Tuesday morning.

A few lake effect flurries and light snow showers will clip northern Oneida county through daybreak. Otherwise, latest radar trends and observations show another area of light snow currently across west-central PA. Consensus of the near term guidance (including the HRRR) if for some light snow or flurries to overspread much of our NE PA counties between 7-10 AM this morning . with the steadier light snow mainly along and south of I-84, and especially down toward I-80. This quick round of light warm air advection snow quickly diminishes by midday. Could see a light dusting, to perhaps half an inch in this area. The rest of the forecast area will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, but dry weather through the daytime hours. Light south or southwest winds under 10 mph. High temperatures should reach 30-35 this afternoon for most locations.

Tonight: The next, more impactful wave of low pressure and warm air advection precipitation then quickly overspreads the area from south to north later this evening and overnight. Good jet support (right entrance region of 150 kt at 300mb) strong lift and some mid level frontogenesis banding should allow for a burst of moderate snow. Current timing brings the steady snow across NE PA by late evening, reaching the Twin Tiers around or just after midnight. Finally reaching the US-20 corridor during the predawn early morning hours Tuesday, then the NY thruway by daybreak. Snow bands within the broader area of light snow could produce rates around 1"/hr at times. The snow will begin to mix with sleet and freezing rain after midnight across NE PA. Surface temperatures hover in the mid-20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday: Low pressure center stays south of the area, sliding off the coast south of Long Island on Tuesday. Model guidance is now in fairly good agreement that the 0C isotherm in the mid levels will reach the northern tier of PA Tuesday morning (although the GFS is still a warmer outlier, bringing the warm air aloft north of the NY southern tier). Current forecast now has a wintry mix of light sleet, freezing rain and rain across much of NE PA on Tuesday . except snow/sleet mix across the far northern tier of PA and right along the NY/PA border and Rte 17 corridor in NY. Further north expect periods of light to occasionally moderate snow to continue all day Tuesday. Temperatures continue to hover in the mid-20s to lower 30s . except mid-30s in the Wyoming Valley. Total snow by Tuesday evening is forecast to be 2-5 inches areawide, with up to 0.15 inches of ice across the NE PA and Sullivan county NY (especially the higher elevations). Winds shift out of the north by Tuesday afternoon, increasing to around 8-15 mph. The snow and wintry mix taper off from SW to NE late in the day or evening . with just some lingering snow shower up north after sunset.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/.

After the northeastern cyclone pulls away from NY and PA, a Canadian flow will develop across Lake Ontario. Colder air will filter into our region, and lake effect snow showers will form downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.

A colder shot of air is forecast to arrive on Wednesday. Very unstable profiles and favorable shear point toward snow squalls with gusty winds developing during the day. Snow squalls could produce low visibilities in snow and blowing snow.

Arctic air pouring into the region will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits Wednesday night, with below zero readings forecast over northeastern sections of Oneida County. The combination of cold temperatures and gusty winds will produce wind chill values between -5 and -15.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.

Westerly flow across the Great Lakes will cause light lake effect snow showers over northern and western sections of the forecast area Thursday before high pressure builds in Thursday night. Temperatures will drop into the single digits Thursday night with below zero readings to the far north.

Chilly but quiet weather is forecast for Friday as temperatures rise into the 20s.

A weak wave could produce isolated snow showers on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will rebound into the middle 30s on Saturday and the upper 30s on Sunday.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Lake effect snow showers are quickly tapering off to just flurries near KSYR and KRME early this morning. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions with sct to bkn clouds between 3.5 to 6k ft agl streaming across the area. VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the the daytime hours today for most terminals. The except will be KAVP where a period of light snow is possible from about 14-17z this morning, and tempo mvfr vsbys and/or cigs are possible. Otherwise, expect mid and high level clouds across the rest of the region today.

This evening, a period of steady snow will gradually lift north from central PA into our area by late evening or overnight. The snow should reach KAVP between 17/01-04z . with conditions quickly becoming mvfr/fuel alternate, then IFR prior to 17/06z. Some sleet could mix in here.

The snow should reach the southern tier of NY (KBGM/KELM) between 17/03-06z . with restrictions developing here shortly thereafter. The snow likely reaches KITH between about 17/05-08z and finally KSYR and KRME between about 17/08-11z. Will hone in on the details for these central and northern sites in future taf updates, as we get closer in time.

Outlook .

Late Tonight and Tuesday . MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

Wednesday and Wednesday night . MVFR/IFR restrictions with snow showers and squalls in CNY. MVFR AVP.

Thursday . VFR. Possible restrictions in CNY due to lingering lake effect snow showers.

Thursday night and Friday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ043-044-047-048-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ038>040. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ022-024-055>057-062. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046.

SYNOPSIS . MJM NEAR TERM . MJM SHORT TERM . DJP LONG TERM . DJP AVIATION . MJM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 38 mi59 min NE 8.9 G 15 1022.7 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 86 mi53 min SSW 6 G 8 27°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi59 min 27°F 1022.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast26°F16°F66%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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W10W8W6W7W8W6SW7W9SW6W5Calm
1 day agoE6E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4W8W10SW9W14
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2 days agoS12
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S9CalmS13S12S11S13SE9E6E8E7NE4NE4E7NE4E6NE3E5E6E4NE5E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.