Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bandon, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:48PM Sunday July 25, 2021 9:14 AM PDT (16:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 6:36AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 857 Am Pdt Sun Jul 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Today..N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell S 1 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. SWell S 1 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell S 1 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell S 1 ft and nw 2 ft.
Tue..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. Mixed swell S 1 ft and nw 2 ft.
Tue night..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell S 1 ft and nw 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft... Building to 5 ft. S swell 1 ft.
Thu..N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 ft. SWell S 1 ft.
PZZ300 857 Am Pdt Sun Jul 25 2021
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A typical summer weather pattern of high pressure offshore and a thermal trough near the coast will persist into Monday. This patten will result in gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas. Very steep and hazardous warning level seas are expected from gold beach southward, with north gales expected beyond 5 nm from shore. North of gold beach, advisory level conditions will continue into Monday. Winds will ease some Monday and overall conditions will improve Monday night into Tuesday, though seas will likely remain steep south of cape blanco through Tuesday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bandon, OR
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location: 43.12, -124.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 251604 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 904 AM PDT Sun Jul 25 2021

DISCUSSION. Lots of smoke aloft across the forecast area this morning. Surface smoke impacts are focused in Northern California and areas along and east of the Cascades. It looks like smoke will worsen at the surface in the Rogue Valley later this morning and then clear out in the late afternoon due to northwest breezes. Surface smoke impacts this afternoon will be focused over Eastern Siskiyou, Modoc, Klamath, and Lake Counties. No changes made to the forecast this morning. We're focused on thunderstorm coverage forecasting today as moisture pushes up from the south over the next several days. Keene

AVIATION. For the 25/12Z TAF Cycle . VFR will prevail for much of the area away from the coast and away from area wildfires. Along the coast and in the Coquille Basin, LIFR conditions will persist through this morning. Stratus will burn back to the beaches by this afternoon, and this should bring at least a brief period of clearing for coastal locations. Expect LIFR/IFR conditions to return again early this evening. Expect periods of MVFR visibilities due to wildfire smoke this afternoon, especially east of the Cascades. BR-y

MARINE. Updated 130 AM PDT Sunday, 25 July 2021 . A typical summer weather pattern of high pressure offshore and a thermal trough near the coast will persist into Monday. This patten will result in gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas. Very steep and hazardous warning level seas are expected from Gold Beach southward, with north gales expected beyond 5 nm from shore. North of Gold Beach, advisory level conditions will continue into Monday. Winds will ease some Monday and overall conditions will improve Monday night into Tuesday, though seas will likely remain steep south of Cape Blanco through Tuesday morning.

The thermal trough pattern will be disrupted Tuesday into Wednesday, then likely return late Wednesday into Thursday. Although not as strong as the current event, gusty north winds are expected to return by Thursday and persist into next weekend. Conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft then, especially south of Cape Blanco. /BR-y

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 PM Saturday 24 July 2021 . High pressure aloft (centered over Utah/Nevada) will continue to bring dry weather to the forecast area the rest of this weekend. Fairly typical upvalley NNW winds are expected this afternoon/evening and again Sunday afternoon/evening. Some ENE winds are expected again tonight over the upper slopes/ridges from western Siskiyou County into the coast ranges of SW Oregon -- generally averaging 5-15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph. Overall, humidity recovery will be moderate, though some RAWS sites may only recover to 25-35%.

The upper ridge will gradually weaken, but then amplify over the central U.S. early next week. As this occurs, southerly flow aloft will develop on the western periphery of the ridge allowing monsoon moisture (currently over the Desert Southwest) to surge northward into the area.

Model guidance continues to show the initial risk of lightning beginning Monday with anomalously high PWs rising to near or even above 1.00 inch and a weak upper short wave disturbance serving as a trigger for isolated storms. There is a broad area of elevated instability that could generate showers and maybe even an isolated storm as early as Monday morning, with modest instability persisting into the afternoon/evening. Due to the dry air mass in place ahead of this and with the increase in PWs, expect a mix of wet and dry storms initially, becoming wetter with time. The best chances for isolated CG lightning will be over western Siskiyou County and from the Cascades eastward (focus near Chemult/Crescent). We have decided against a Fire Weather Watch since high clouds appear to be a limiting factor to instability at least somewhat and there is little support for anything more than isolated coverage of storms.

Elevated instability Monday night could result in nocturnal activity in advance of another likely healthier disturbance arriving on Tuesday. Latest guidance is showing a fairly robust upper short wave moving northward across northern California Monday night, then across the forecast area Tuesday. The amount of available moisture is likely to reach a peak on Tuesday with PWs surging to 1.00-1.50 inches. Indeed, it will be more humid by then. With much more cloud cover expected, expect this to be more showers and isolated thunderstorms, with any storms being quite wet.

Wednesday-Friday, we're still under deep southerly flow, so additional disturbances moving through could generate convection. At this time, it appears the most likely areas for thunderstorms will be near and east of the Cascades with some eastward shift by Thu/Fri. -Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 530 AM PDT Sun Jul 25 2021/

DISCUSSION . As mentioned in the previous discussion, the focus for the forecast was upon temperatures, and especially the probability of showers and thunderstorms from Monday onward.

The extent of wildfire smoke from the Jack (in eastern Douglas County), Bootleg(in eastern Klamath and western Lake), and especially the Dixie (in Plumas County CA, east of Chico) increased yesterday and is forecast by the HRRR model to continue that trend today. As such, the Air Quality Advisory issued by the Oregon Dept. of Environmental Quality remains in effect until 5 PM Monday for south central Oregon. The smoke also likely hindered heating on Saturday afternoon, by a couple degrees or so between the Coast Range and the Cascades, and by a few to several degrees on the east side. Inland high temperatures today will still be generally several degrees above normal, similar to the readings from Saturday. It will be slightly cooler Monday, several degrees of additional cooling for Tuesday will result in near normal to slightly below normal highs, then a new warming trend should result in highs during the remainder of the week that are similar to those of this weekend. This includes west side valley readings likely around 95 to 105 and east side values in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Meantime, the coast will continue with night and morning stratus and cool, near normal temperatures . with highs mainly in the 60s.

Our very dry, stable air mass will see a modest increase in mid- level (700-500 mb) moisture today, the first sign of a change in the pattern. This change will see the ridging over our region weaken as the ridge axis over the Great Basin shifts east of the Rockies. Meantime, a trough offshore from southern California will deepen. This will send a conveyor of monsoonal moisture into our area from the south. The initial timing of the first shortwave kicker and higher moisture amount is consistent with yesterday's forecast, with a first chance of showers and perhaps a few associated lightning strikes early Monday morning. The atmospheric profile will be more supportive of convection later Monday, though instability will still be on the weak side . supporting keeping the probability of thunderstorms in the slight chance category. Thunderstorms are possible in northern California and from Jackson County/far eastern Douglas County eastward. But, the best bet for isolated activity will be in eastern Klamath and western Lake counties. A few showers and a thunderstorm or two may linger overnight into Tuesday morning. But, late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening will see us receive a significant influx of moisture, not seen in quite some time. Precipitable Water values of 200% to 300% of normal (1 to 1.5 inches) are still forecast for our air mass. This will be the time with the highest probability of showers during the week, but the strength of instability still will be relatively weak. All in all, lightning can always be problematic but these look to be wetter than typical storms. The path of the moisture on Tuesday will be similar to Monday with the coast, most of Douglas, and much of Josephine counties still missing out on this activity.

There remains a wider spread of solutions regarding the evolution of the pattern beyond Tuesday, with uncertainty in how soon and how far the region of instability and monsoonal moisture shifts eastward. The operational GFS and a minority of ensemble members do send a shortwave across the west side Tuesday night. We will need to continue to monitor this for the possibility of showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly over all of the west side, even coastal areas.

A majority of GEFS members do indicate a decrease in convective activity with shortwave ridging on Wednesday, then an evening influx of moisture accompanying another shortwave into our northern California counties Wednesday evening. As such, continued convection cannot be ruled out for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Uncertainty increases another notch for Thursday. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS favored a shift eastward of the pattern with lingering activity mainly east of the Cascades, but the 06Z GFS is less progressive. In fact, while not as impressive as Tuesday, Thursday may be a secondary maximum of activity with the lowest probability of precipitation again for the coast and Douglas County. There is still a very open question regarding whether the pattern will shift eastward on Friday through Sunday either. We can say that including a slight chance probability of showers and thunderstorms remains prudent with the highest probability on the east side . especially Lake and Modoc counties.

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SNTO3 12 mi104 min NNE 4.1 53°F 1020 hPa53°F
46128 14 mi74 min 51°F
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 16 mi98 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 1019.6 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 27 mi56 min NW 15 G 22 60°F 47°F1018.2 hPa
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 34 mi44 min NNE 18 G 21 52°F 50°F1018.7 hPa52°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 46 mi48 min 54°F6 ft

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR23 mi18 minN 39.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1019.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

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Tide / Current Tables for Bandon, Coquille River, Oregon
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Bandon
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:49 AM PDT     7.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:01 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:35 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:57 AM PDT     -1.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:32 PM PDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:52 PM PDT     2.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.67.97.364.12.10.2-1-1.4-0.90.32.13.95.36.16.15.54.43.32.52.32.73.85.2

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:06 AM PDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:04 AM PDT     -1.79 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM PDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     2.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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88.58.16.84.82.50.3-1.2-1.8-1.301.945.76.76.86.25.13.82.82.42.73.85.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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