Saturday, August8, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:24PM Saturday August 8, 2020 7:33 AM EDT (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:04PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1247 Am Edt Sat Aug 8 2020
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 74 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202008080930;;105731 FZUS51 KBUF 080447 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1247 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-080930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Rochester, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 081045 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak trough will produce a few isolated showers today from the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes to the eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will provide a mainly dry weekend. Temperatures will warm each day, with heat and humidity peaking on Monday. A weak cold front will then bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the region Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. An upper level trough will move east across New England today, with a ridge building into the eastern Great Lakes in its place. This will bring a mainly dry and warm weekend with a few minor exceptions noted below.

River valley fog across the western Southern Tier will dissipate by mid morning. IR satellite imagery showing variable cloud cover across the region this morning, with radar imagery showing a few isolated showers between Buffalo and Rochester. These isolated showers are tied to a weak trough axis in the 850-700MB layer. This feature will drift slowly east across the area today, and will provide the focus for a few more isolated to widely scattered showers. The greatest chance for anything somewhat organized will be this afternoon across the western Finger Lakes and Lewis County, where the weak trough axis will interact cooperatively with terrain and weak diurnal instability.

Otherwise the rest of the area will stay dry today. Rather extensive diurnal cumulus will develop along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries, with more afternoon sunshine found close to the lakes in expanding stable lake shadows. Highs will reach the lower 80s on the lake plains, and upper 70s on the hills and along the immediate lakeshores.

Any isolated showers in the western Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario will end early this evening. This will leave mainly clear to partly cloudy skies through the first half of the night, with some increase in mid level clouds late ahead of a weak shortwave. Expect valley fog in the typical river valleys of the Southern Tier again late tonight. Lows will reach the lower 60s on the lake plains, with mid to upper 50s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County.

Sunday an upper level trough will move down the Ottawa Valley, reaching northern NY in the afternoon. This feature will bring some increase in mid/high clouds at times across the region. Most of the scattered showers and storms will remain north of Lakes Erie and Ontario across southern Ontario, although a few may cross the Saint Lawrence River and into northern NY in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue their slow climb, with highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations. Southwest winds will increase with the approach of the trough, with gusts of 20-30 mph northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A very warm and humid start to the new work week expected, with the main chances for showers and storms during this period coming on Tuesday.

A weak shortwave will pass through the North Country Sunday night possibly producing an isolated shower or two there, otherwise dry weather expected elsewhere. A southwesterly return flow of much warmer, more humid air will ensue on Monday as surface high pressure slides off the East Coast. An upper ridge over the lower Great Lakes will slide east into eastern NY/western New England by later Monday afternoon as an upper level shortwave approaches from the central Great Lakes. This feature combined with diurnal heating and increasing instability may be enough to pop a stray shower or storm across the interior Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes region later in the day. Otherwise, dry, hot and humid conditions expected. Highs on Monday could reach ~90F across portions the lake plains, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes region. Given the increasing dewpoints to near 70F across these areas, could edge near or into low-end heat advisory criteria (heat index of 95F or higher). At the least, heat indices will reach the lower 90s across a good chunk of the lower elevations.

Main upper trough and associated surface cold front will start to approach from the upper Great Lakes Monday night. At this time it appears the movement will be slow enough with these features that the majority of the region will remain rain free through the overnight, with just the chance for a few showers or storms across western areas toward Tuesday morning. The eastward progression of the surface cold front will begin to slow as it's parent upper trough deamplifies somewhat. That said, showers and storms still appear likely on Tuesday, mainly along the prefrontal trough that moves through ahead of the actual surface cold front. Depending on timing and strength of upper dynamics will determine our chances for some stronger storms. The other threat will be heavy rain with plenty of available moisture and shear profiles advertising the possibility for slow moving storms. Otherwise, Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A few showers or storms will be possible into Tuesday night as the cold front slowly crosses western and northcentral NY. Low temperatures both nights will be much warmer and more muggy than previous nights, with lows in the 60s, and even some lower 70s over the lower elevations Monday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure tries to push in from the northwest in the wake of the cold front on Wednesday, attempting to dry things out across the area. However, the boundary will likely stall somewhere just south of our area, lingering somewhere across the Ohio Valley into Pennsylvania through the second half of the week. Although there will likely be lots of dry time through this period, the lurking boundary to the south in combination with a weak upper trough over the region aloft and plenty of available moisture will allow at least the chance for some showers/storms each day/night, especially during the afternoon/evening. Best chances for precipitation will be south of the NYS Thruway closer to the stalled boundary.

Otherwise, temperatures and humidity levels will be a little lower on the north side of the boundary, however temps will still be solidly above average with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A weak trough near 700MB will continue to drift slowly east across the area this morning, producing areas of clouds with bases in the 5- 8K foot range and even a few isolated showers. Valley fog will produce local IFR across the western Southern Tier.

The fog will dissipate by mid morning, leaving VFR to prevail. The remaining stratocumulus will give way to diurnal cumulus inland from the lakes as daytime heating works on a layer of low level moisture. A few more isolated to widely scattered showers will develop today from the western Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill region. The diurnal cumulus will fade away this evening, with mainly clear skies giving way to some increase in mid level clouds late as another weak upper level trough approaches. Valley fog will develop across the Southern Tier overnight with local IFR.

Outlook .

Sunday through Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible. Wednesday . VFR but with a shower or thunderstorm possible.

MARINE. High pressure will center on the eastern Great Lakes today with light winds and flat wave action. The light synoptic scale flow will allow local lake breezes to develop, with winds becoming onshore this afternoon. A southwest wind will increase Sunday on Lake Erie ahead of a weak upper level trough. This will produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie, with winds and waves expected to remain just below Small Craft criteria. Winds will be a little lighter on Lake Ontario, but still enough to generate some chop on the lake.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi33 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 69°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 12 mi45 min 65°F 1020.9 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 35 mi33 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 72°F1020.7 hPa65°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi45 min SSE 4.1 G 6 67°F 1020.6 hPa64°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY9 mi39 minSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds62°F60°F93%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW3CalmE4N5SW45SW3E4N5NE8NE8NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.