Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 8:19 PM EST (01:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 9:03PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 634 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Scattered snow showers early, then scattered flurries. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202001290415;;667949 FZUS51 KBUF 282334 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 634 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-290415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Rochester, NY
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location: 43.12, -77.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 290021 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 721 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A persistent northerly flow will keep our region shrouded under low clouds and a few light snow showers and flurries through tonight. High pressure will bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Weak northerly flow will remain in place tonight keeping some light precipitation across the area along with abundant lower cloud cover. Precipitation should be mostly snow, but a few area soundings do show temperatures in the cloud layer at or below -10C, with dry mid levels above a very moist lower level. Webcams and observations are showing this precipitation is mostly snow this evening, but it is possible that the inversion will lower slightly and result in some patchy freezing drizzle tonight. If this occurs, it could be enough to slicken up some untreated roads. The abundant low cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures from falling much, with most overnight lows in the lower to mid 20s, perhaps a few upper teens east of lake Ontario.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. Surface high pressure will build from northern Ontario to western Quebec Wednesday, with a ridge extending down into the eastern Great Lakes. Weak northerly flow will still be in place in the low levels. A steadily drying airmass and lowering inversion heights will force any remaining light lake effect flurries to end early in the morning. Stratus/stratocumulus will likely hold strong south of Lake Ontario through at least the morning with moisture trapped beneath the steepening subsidence inversion. The clouds may slowly erode during the afternoon. The North Country should see more in the way of sunshine with no influence from the lakes. Temperatures will be very close to average, with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 on the lake plains and low to mid 20s across higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario.

Surface high pressure will build very slowly eastward across Quebec Wednesday night through Friday, building southward into New England over time as well. This will maintain a long period of dry and tranquil weather across our region. A relatively cooler airmass will be in place Wednesday night, and will combine with clear or partly clear skies and light winds to allow for good radiational cooling. Expect lows in the teens on the lake plains, with some single digits possible across the traditionally colder Southern Tier valleys. East of Lake Ontario temperatures will drop below zero with no maritime influence.

Dry weather continues Thursday, with some modest increase in mid level clouds as a weak mid level shortwave passes to the south of the region. Temperatures will rise to the lower 30s across Western NY and the mid 20s east of Lake Ontario after a cold start. Good radiational cooling conditions will still be in place Thursday night, although temperatures will not be quite as cold as the airmass modifies. Expect lows in the 15-20 degree range in Western NY, and single digits above zero east of Lake Ontario.

Clouds will thicken from west to east Friday as moisture and warm advection increase ahead of the next system, but any precip will stay well west of our region through early evening. Temperatures will continue a slow moderation, with highs in the low to mid 30s in most locations, with upper 20s limited to the North Country.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The surface high providing the dry weather for the latter half of the work week will push off to sea Friday night, as a southern jet along with an upper level trough promote cyclogenesis along the Southeastern Atlantic seaboard. While the track of the possible Nor'easter looks to not directly impact our region, its track to the northeast will influence how the model guidances handle the passage of a shortwave disturbance impacting our region. This shortwave trough axis appears to move through the Upper Great Lakes Friday night, crossing NYS Saturday evening into Sunday. As the shortwave passes, chances of rain and snow showers increase. Most of the precipitation falling through out this period should be snow, however there are chances for some mixed/rain showers in the lower terrain. The precipitation should switch over to all fall as snow during the overnight hours on Saturday into Sunday and remain as snow throughout the day on Sunday.

Ridging becomes dominant behind this shortwave trough, decreasing the chances for precipitation on Monday. With the ridging, warm air advection is expected bringing Mondays highs above normal. The dry period won't last long as a cold front will pass through the region during the day on Tuesday. The precipitation associated with this front should primarily fall as rain.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low level moisture will remain trapped beneath an inversion overnight and well into Wednesday. This will result in mainly MVFR cigs tonight, with possibly IFR cigs across higher terrain or in precipitation. There are also will be some light snow showers, and possibly patchy freezing drizzle tonight. These will mainly impact KROC, but cannot be ruled out elsewhere.

Percipition will fade away Wednesday morning with mainly MVFR cigs remaining. VFR conditions should return by afternoon as high pressure starts to build into the region.

Outlook .

Wednesday night through Friday . Mainly VFR. Saturday . Deteriorating cigs in areas of light rain and/or snow. Sunday . Some restriction in rain and snow showers.

MARINE. A large Canadian surface high will drift across Ontario into central Quebec tonight and Wednesday. This high will then shift south-southeast over the lower Great Lakes from Wednesday night through Thursday night, before sliding off the southern New England coastline on Friday. This will result in generally light winds and negligible wave action through this time frame.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH/TMA NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA/TMA SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . JM/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 11 mi19 min NNW 11 G 14 34°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 12 mi49 min 34°F 1015.4 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 58 mi49 min 29°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY9 mi25 minNW 68.00 miLight Snow31°F28°F89%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW9NW9NW7NW9NW9NW7NW8NW8NW6NW6NW8NW6NW9NW8NW10NW7NW6NW6NW9NW6W7NW8NW6
1 day agoSW10W9W9W10W10W10W12W10W9W10W9W9W6W9NW6W11NW7NW12NW8NW10NW7W8NW8--
2 days agoW9W8W5SW6SW6SW7W5W9W9SW9W9W9W11W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.