Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Macedon, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:36PM Friday December 6, 2019 4:14 PM EST (21:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 1:27AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 603 Am Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Snow through early afternoon, then scattered snow showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely during the day, then lake effect snow and rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201912061630;;934428 FZUS51 KBUF 061103 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 603 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-061630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Macedon, NY
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location: 43.13, -77.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 062006 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 306 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow will develop on a west-northwest flow this evening through early Saturday off Lake Ontario. A much weaker lake response is expected southeast of Lake Erie. Other areas of Western and Central New York should only see flurries or dry weather. An area of surface high pressure will move across the region later Saturday, and off New England by Sunday with dry weather. The next system will bring briefly warmer weather and rain for early next week, followed a blast of much colder air, with potentially significant lake effect snow event mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. An upper level shortwave trough is moving through Southern Ontario with a corresponding area of surface low pressure moving toward New England. This has resulted in a burst of snow east of Lake Ontario, with a mix of snow and rain, or just rain for areas south of the Thruway with warmer air aloft along with some above freezing surface temperatures.

Cold air advection however is now taking hold of the region. A lull in any rain-->snow is expected until the airmass aloft becomes cold enough for lapse rates supportive of a lake effect response. This will be most noticeable ESE of Lake Ontario, roughly from the NE half of Wayne, across N Cayuga, and into W Oswego counties where up to 4" are possible into Saturday morning. This is just below advisory, but the time period (weekend night without subsequent morning rush hour) means that this will have less overall impact when compared to other time periods. Will of course monitor the evolution with a possible short advisory overnight if needed.

There may be a weaker response SE of Lake Erie, but model trends continue to indicate that, with less fetch and minimal upstream connection, there will be negligible lake effect snow over the typical higher terrain. Elsewhere, expect only a few flurries or just some decreasing clouds this evening. Some areas may see a period (or several periods) with clear skies.

On Saturday, any remaining lake effect ESE of Lake Ontario should come to an end by or around midday, with partly or mostly sunny skies elsewhere as surface high pressure builds over the region behind the departing upper level trough.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Saturday night, a 1033 surface high gradually drifts east across New York State, then off the coast near Long Island/Massachusetts by Sunday morning. In its wake, a warm front will cross the region overnight and return southerly flow strengthens. This will initiate warm advective processes across the Lower Lakes in advance of the next system, especially on the day Sunday. Otherwise, look for dry conditions to be maintained with increasing high clouds. Lows will be found in the teens east of Lake Ontario, while elsewhere temperatures will be mainly in the low 20s.

Surface high pressure off the coast of Long Island/Massachusetts will head further out to sea Sunday. While this occurs, the trough and cold front will approach the Lower Lakes from the northwest. Still expecting a mainly dry day as our region will still be in between the two features. Also, southwesterly flow will continue to pick up with warm advective processes in full swing, so expecting a fairly breezy day. High temperatures will climb into the low to mid 40s west of the Genesee Valley and upper 30s to near 40F elsewhere.

Well, it was nice while it lasted with the dry weather coming to and end. Sunday night, the cold front inches closer to Western NY and then slows its progression. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave trough over Montana will be in the process of tracking east into the upper Mid-west. Additionally, moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic will be in the process of surging northward. Lift from a 45-50 knot LLJ together with a coupled upper level jet will lead to increasing chances for showers overnight. While most location will see precipitation in the liquid form, there might be some snow east of Lake Ontario. This is where deeper colder air mass will reside initially at the start of the precipitation. There, a few tenths of an inch of snow will be possible before the transition over to rain. With warm advection processes in play, temperatures won't likely change all that much overnight. Lows will occur early and bottom out in the 30s to low 40s, with the coldest readings found east of Lake Ontario.

. Complex storm system arrives Monday with rain then turning MUCH colder Tuesday with the potential for significant lake snows. More on that in the long term .

Shortwave trough over the upper Midwest tracks east and into the upper Great Lakes on Monday. The surface low over Oklahoma then heads towards the Great Lakes arriving across Michigan by Monday evening. Meanwhile, another low develops along the Mid-Atlantic, as previously mentioned Atlantic moisture surges north up along the northeast coast. This is where the best forcing will occur and higher precipitation amounts will be found. While we won't see the heaviest of the precipitation (all liquid during this period), a good 0.30-0.50 inch will be likely across area basins. With a much milder air mass in place and H850T in the neighborhood of +4/+5C, look for highs to peak in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Low pressure will be found just to our west Monday evening and will track northeast off into Quebec Canada overnight. While this occurs, it will send a strong cold front into and then across the Lower Lakes on Tuesday. Look for synoptic precipitation to diminish from west to east behind the front. With the cold frontal passage, cold air advection will quickly ramp up with H850T plummeting to -11/- 12C. Otherwise, initially temperatures won't change all that much until the frontal passage just before day break across Western NY. So, there will be a wide disparity in terms of low temperatures. Across Western NY lows will likely be found in the mid to upper 30s, with 40s likely elsewhere ahead of the front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. . SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK .

An Arctic cold front will cross the region for Tuesday. As such, cold air will rapidly pour into the area causing the ongoing rain showers from Tuesday morning to abruptly transition over to snow showers as we head into Tuesday afternoon.

Winds shifting to westerly at 850 mb through the night on Tuesday into Wednesday will advect cold air into the region, causing the 850 mb temperature to drop to around minus 20C. In addition, multiple parameters are stacking up, from good over-lake instability, available moisture, and positioning of the upper and lower level features suggesting for a strong lake response off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario beginning Tuesday night continuing into most of the day on Wednesday. As per usual, there is some uncertainty regarding the exact positioning of the lake effect bands, however the lower resolution models are suggesting winds to be generally westerly/southwesterly for most of this time period before veering northwest near the end of the event.

High pressure will pass through the region for Thursday into Friday, lowering the chances for precipitation. Near the end of this period winds will shift southwesterly advecting warm area into the region.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A surface low near the SE end of Lake Ontario at 18Z, and its associated snow/precipitation will continue eastward this afternoon, while IFR ceilings lag behind the end of precipitation. For late this afternoon and evening, much of the region will return to VFR, except SE of Lake Ontario where a brief band of lake effect snow will fall This snow band may clip KROC this evening. but for now will leave ROC with a MVFR ceiling. This snowband will diminish by early Saturday morning. On Saturday a surface high will advance towards the Eastern Great Lakes, with VFR flight conditions and light winds.

Outlook .

Saturday afternoon . VFR. Sunday . VFR. MVFR in Rain Sunday night with LLWS possible. Monday . Areas of MVFR in rain. Tuesday . MVFR with rain showers ending from west to east. Snow showers possible late. Wednesday . IFR within lake effect snow east of the Lakes.

MARINE. Small craft advisory conditions are expected through this evening over Lake Erie and through part of Saturday over Lake Ontario as a weak system moves east while surface high pressure builds in from the west. A short period of lighter winds are expected later Saturday and Saturday night, but southwest winds will then spread across the region on Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Saturday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Zaff NEAR TERM . Zaff SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 19 mi75 min N 15 G 17 32°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 20 mi63 min 33°F 1016.5 hPa
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 47 mi63 min N 19 G 24 1014.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY20 mi21 minNW 810.00 miLight Snow31°F27°F85%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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NW8W6W5W8SW4W5W5W4SW4SW4S5S5S6S4SE3SE3S3CalmN5N10N13N9NW8
1 day agoW9W8W10W10W9W9
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2 days agoW3SW3CalmSW4SW7W7SW4SW5W4W4SW3SW5SW5SW4SW5SW6SW3SW6SW6SW5W5W6W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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